Archive for Top 15 Prospects

Top 15 Prospects: Detroit Tigers

Despite graduating a few gems over the years, the Detroit Tigers organization is not known for focusing resource on developing in-house talent. The organization drafts rather conservatively (outside the couple of rounds, at least) and mostly uses its prospects as trade bait. With that said, this year’s Top 15 list has three players on the top of the list that could develop into above-average contributors in Detroit… if they’re not traded first.

1. Jacob Turner, RHP
BORN: May 21, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 1st round (9th overall), Missouri HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 1st

Turner’s name came up a lot this past off-season as team’s understandably coveted the right-hander in trade talks with Detroit. Standing 6’5” he has an impressive pitcher’s frame and should be durable as a big league starter once he fills out a bit more and gets stronger. He commands his fastball well, which can touch 94-95, and works down in the zone with it. His curveball and changeup both have the chance to develop into plus pitches, giving Turner the ceiling of a No. 2 starter. The right-hander may very well open 2012 in Detroit’s big league rotation after pitching much of ’11 in double-A and receiving three late-season starts in the Majors. Often likened to current Tigers pitcher Rick Porcello because they were both fast-moving, high draft picks, they’re really not that similar.

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Top 15 Prospects: Pittsburgh Pirates

The organization has some true star power at the top of its minor league depth chart but things begin to peter out after the Top 3 prospects and the cupboard is rather bare by the end of the Top 15. The downside to the system is that the majority of the high-ceiling talent is currently in A-ball or lower so it will be a little while before the fan base begins to reap the benefits of the organization’s renewed emphasis on in-house development.

1. Gerrit Cole, RHP
BORN: Sept. 8, 1990
EXPERIENCE: None
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round (1st overall), UCLA
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA

The Pirates organization entered the 2011 amateur draft in an enviable position with the first overall selection. The club had its pick from a number of high-ceiling players and ultimately chose Cole. It’s easy to see the move working out well for the organization as long as the right-hander can stay healthy (and there are no red flags… or even yellow for that matter). Cole, who has been a top prospect since his prep days and actually turned down the Yankees as a first rounder in ’08, has the chance to develop into a No. 1 starter and could get to Pittsburgh in short order. The California native’s repertoire includes two strikeout pitches: a 92-97 mph fastball and a slider. He also features a solid changeup. Expect Cole to open 2012 in either high-A or double-A and he could reach the Majors by year’s end – unless the club wants to be cautious with his service time.

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Top 15 Prospects: Toronto Blue Jays

Fans can say what they will about the Jays efforts in attracting big ticket free agents but there aren’t many organizations in baseball that can match Toronto’s dedication to scouting and player development. Since taking over the general manager’s role, Alex Anthopoulos has rejuvenated the minor league system – through trades, the draft and international free agency – and the the efforts are about to bear fruit with numerous prospects nearing graduation.

1. Anthony Gose, OF
BORN: Aug. 10, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 4 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2008 2nd round, California HS (by Phillies)
2010-11 TOP 30 RANKING: 11th

Gose narrowly edges d’Arnaud for top spot on the Jays list because of his potential as a four-tool player (The hit tool is the only non-plus). The outfielder has an exciting mix of speed, power, arm strength and overall center-field defense that is hard to find. Previously more of a singles hitter, the Jays player development staff had Gose focus more on driving the ball at double-A in 2011 and his ISO rate rose form .122 with the Phillies organization in ’10 to .161. Gose struggles to make consistent contact and posted a strikeout rate of 26% in ’11. His willingness to take walks (10.6 BB%) helps to make up for the low batting average and allowed him to attempt 84 stolen bases (He was successful 69 times). I’ve been cautious with my rankings of Gose in the past but I’m becoming a believer as he continues to show improvements as he climbs the minor league ladder.

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Top 15 Prospects: San Diego Padres

The San Diego system is deep. What’s most impressive is that the organization has been able to bulk up its minor league depth through a variety of methods: drafting, international free agency and trades. In particular, scouting director Jaron Madison had an outstanding draft in 2011. Even with the loss of some of its front office talent much more remains. The loss of young hurler Mat Latos through a trade with Cincinnati was a ballsy move and it stings a little but the organization is ultimately stronger for it. This is an organization on the upswing.

1. Yonder Alonso, 1B
BORN: April 8, 1987
EXPERIENCE: 4 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2008 1st round (7th overall), University of Miami (by Cincinnati)
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 5th (Reds)

With the recent trade of fellow first base prospect Anthony Rizzo to the Chicago Cubs, Alonso is set to be San Diego’s starting first baseman in 2012. His ability to use the entire field and provide opposite-field pop will suit him well in his new ball park. Although he doesn’t have prototypical power (His power grades a 50), Alonso has the ability to hit for average and he has a strong eye at the plate that leads to a healthy number of walks. No longer blocked by Joey Votto in Cincinnati, the ugly experiment of placing Alonso is left field is over. He’ll return to his natural position of first base for the Padres, where he could eventually provide average to slightly-above-average defense at the position.

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Top 15 Prospects: Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers organization is solid top to bottom with both high-ceiling talents and depth. In looking at the Top 10 prospects we can see that the organization’s main strengths are pitching and up-the-middle offensive players.

1. Jurickson Profar, SS
BORN: Feb. 20, 1993
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 1st

The Rangers organization already has a dynamic young shortstop in Elvis Andrus but Profar gives them a second potential all star player at that position. In fact, he has the potential to be even better than the incumbent. Playing well below the league average age in ’11, Profar showed an outstanding understanding of the strike zone, and he showed his advanced understanding of the game by going to the plate with an idea of what he wanted to do. In the field, the young player has a strong arm and excellent range. He could develop into a plus defender in time. Look for Profar to begin 2012 in high-A ball but he could see double-A by mid-season.

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Top 15 Prospects: New York Mets

The Mets system is hurt by a lack of depth. It has some very nice arms in Zack Wheeler, Matt Harvey and Jeurys Familia, but things begin to fall off quickly after that. The offensive prospects, in particular, come with a lot of question marks.

1. Zack Wheeler, RHP
BORN: May 30, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 1st round (6th overall), Georgia HS (by San Francisco)
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 2nd (San Francisco)

SCOUTING REPORT: A half year of veteran outfielder Carlos Beltran cost the San Francisco Giants dearly when they shipped Wheeler to the east coast. The right-hander instantly became the organization’s No. 1 prospect, narrowly edging Matt Harvey for the distinction. Wheeler’s repertoire includes a 91-95 mph fastball that can touch the upper 90s, a potentially-plus curveball and two developing pitches: a changeup and a cutter.

YEAR IN REVIEW: Wheeler had little to no issues with high-A ball during his first true full season in the minors. He struggled a bit with his control while pitching in the Giants organization (4.81 BB/9 in 88 IP) but made some minor adjustments with the Mets and showed improvement, albeit in a small sample size (1.67 BB/9 in 27 IP). He has yet to see his strikeout rate dip below 10.00 K/9 in his career. After posting an outstanding ground-ball rate in ’10, Wheeler’s became more of a fly-ball pitcher in ’11; it would be nice to see him work the lower half of the strike zone more consistently.

YEAR AHEAD: Wheeler is ready for the challenge of double-A and he should spend the majority of the season at that level. The organization may be tempted to call on him if the starting rotation struggles but he could use another full season in the minors before facing big league hitters.

CAREER OUTLOOK: Beltran compiled 1.2 WAR in 44 games with the Giants before jumping ship for a lucrative two-year contract with the St. Louis Cardinals. Assuming he stays healthy, Wheeler will have no issues surpassing the value (possibly in his rookie season) that the Giants organization squeezed out of Beltran. Wheeler has a legitimate shot at becoming a No. 1 or 2 starter at the MLB level.

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Top 15 Prospects: Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox top prospects list has undergone an upheaval over last season’s like no other. Only one player in the Top 10 (Ryan Lavarnway) appeared on the list a year ago, which accounts for an unprecedented amount of movement. The list lost just one prospect to graduation (Josh Reddick) while the other eight players either lost value or were surpassed by more promising talent. The good news for the system is that it still has a fair bit of depth and some of the players who stumbled in 2011 could rebuild their prospect value in ’12.

1. Xander Bogaerts, 3B/SS
BORN: Dec. 1, 1992
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off

SCOUTING REPORT: Given his young age, Bogaerts’ season was a massive success. He displayed an advanced approach that should lead to him hitting for average down the line and he has good bat speed, which generates above-average power. Defensively he plays a solid shortstop but he’s expected to slow down and shift over to third base before he reaches the Majors. An interesting side note: Bogaerts’ twin Jair Bogaert spent 2011 playing for Boston Dominican Summer League team (He hit .288 in 47 games).

YEAR IN REVIEW: Bogaerts played the 2011 season in low-A ball at the age of 18 – although he spent the first half of the year in extended spring training. He showed uncanny power for his age with an ISO rate of .249, as well as impressive patience (8.4 BB%). He still has rough edges in his game and struggles with breaking balls, which helped lead to a strikeout rate of 24%.

YEAR AHEAD: The infielder could spend 2012 in high-A ball as a teenager, if Boston wants to continue to be aggressive with him. He’ll look to curb his strikeouts while ironing out the rough edges in his game. If he keeps up this pace Bogaerts could be playing in the Majors by the time he’s 21 years old.

CAREER OUTLOOK: Bogaerts has the potential to develop into a middle-of-the-order threat with 30+ home runs a possibility. He should remain on the left side of the infield but it probably won’t be at shortstop. The Aruba native will be a fun prospect to watch in 2012 and I imagine Boston considers him virtually untouchable.

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Top 15 Prospects: Milwaukee Brewers

Pitching is definitely the strength of the Milwaukee Brewers system. The organization has amassed an impressive group of arms in just the past two seasons. The club scored on two pitchers – Tyler Thornburg and Jimmy Nelson – in 2010 that many thought would crash and burn as starters in pro ball after flip-flopping between the rotation and bullpen in college. They then used two first round picks in 2011 to grab two of the more impressive college arms available to them in the 12-15 pick range. One knock on the system is the serious lack of high-ceiling bats.

1. Taylor Jungmann, RHP
BORN: Dec. 18, 1989
EXPERIENCE: College
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round (12th overall), U of Texas
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA

SCOUTING REPORT: Jungmann has the makings of a solid No. 2 or 3 starter at the Major League level if he can improve his secondary pitches: a slider and changeup. The right-hander’s main weapon is a heavy fastball that sits in the low 90s and touches the mid 90s. With a big, strong frame he has the potential to develop into an innings-eater but there is a little effort in his delivery that might need to be smoothed out.

YEAR IN REVIEW: The Texas alum didn’t play pro ball after signing, even though fellow first rounder Jed Bradley pitched in the Arizona Fall League. Jungmann had an impressive season in college, posting a 1.60 ERA in 141 innings of work.

YEAR AHEAD: Jungmann will likely be assigned to high-A ball where he’ll look to improve the command of his secondary offerings. He could reach double-A at some point in 2012.

CAREER OUTLOOK: It won’t be long before Jungmann joins fellow young hurlers Zack Greinke and Yovani Gallardo in the Milwaukee starting rotation. He should secure a permanent spot by 2013 and could have a long career with the Brewers.

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Top 15 Prospects: Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox system continues to be one of the weakest in the Majors. The front office and ownership cannot fault anyone but themselves for failing to invest in the amateur draft or the international market. On the plus side, the organization has lucked into a few interesting prospects like Addison Reed and Dylan Axelrod. Chicago doesn’t have a true No. 1 prospect, although Reed has value as a potential high-leverage reliever who is close to MLB ready – and the recently acquired Nestor Molina has a higher ceiling than most of the existing players in the Sox system.

1. Addison Reed, RHP
BORN: Dec. 27, 1988
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2010 3rd round, San Diego State University
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off

SCOUTING REPORT: It was a whirlwind season for Reed, who opened the year as an obscure, yet intriguing, pitcher. A teammate of Stephen Strasburg’s at San Diego State, you have to wonder if there’s something in the water there… as both pitchers went undrafted out of high school before seeing big-time velocity jumps in college. Reed pitches in the mid-90s with his fastball and can touch the upper-90s. He also has a slider that’s developing into a plus pitch.

YEAR IN REVIEW: Reed pitched at five levels in 2011, starting as low as low-A ball and ending in the Majors. It was a crazy ride for the pitcher that posted strikeout rates of 11.80 or higher at each stop. He also showed above-average control with walk rates below 2.00 BB/9 at each stop – save for one (2.61 BB/9 in 20.2 IP).

YEAR AHEAD: All told, Reed walked just 14 batters with 111 strikeouts in 78.1 innings in the minors. He basically has nothing left to prove in the minors and could very well be a key piece of the Sox bullpen in 2012. One thing he needs to watch out for, though, is the home run. He allowed just four all year but three came in triple-A and the Majors as his ground-ball rate diminished.

CAREER OUTLOOK: Reed has the demeanor to succeed as the go-to high-leverage reliever for Chicago and it was his emergence that likely lead to the trade of Sergio Santos to Toronto (for No. 2 prospect Nestor Molina). If Chicago so chooses, Reed and Molina could be a dominating late-game pair – although Molina has potential as a big league starter.

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Top 15 Prospects: Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies might not have a strong farm system, but it certainly is an intriguing one. Considering how much talent the organization had to give up to acquire the likes of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee (the first time), Roy Oswalt and Hunter Pence, that’s an impressive accomplishment. And its perhaps even more impressive when you figure in the number of high draft picks the club has had to deal away to assemble its impact ensemble. Still, all those trades have definitely hurt this organization’s minor-league depth:

1. Trevor May, RHP
BORN: Sept. 23, 1989
EXPERIENCE: Four seasons
ACQUIRED: 2008 fourth round, Washington HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Fifth

SCOUTING REPORT: May is a big, strong pitcher with a solid repertoire that includes a 90mph to 95 mph fastball. He also has a potentially plus curveball, a changeup and a new-found slider. His delivery gets out of whack at times, which causes his command to suffer. As a player from a cold-weather state, he’s always been a little behind prospects from sunny weather locales, such as California, Arizona and Florida — but he’s definitely playing catch-up now.

YEAR IN REVIEW: Brody Colvin took a step back in 2011, and Jarred Cosart was traded to Houston, so May’s breakout season was more than welcomed by the organization. The right-hander pitched a career high 144.1 innings and had a 2.69 FIP. He maintained an outstanding strikeout rate (12.10 K/9), but his control remained inconsistent (4.05 BB/9) — and that is the biggest thing preventing him from becoming an elite pitcher.

YEAR AHEAD: May will move up to double-A in 2012 and he isn’t far from contributing to the big-league team. Still, he needs to polish his secondary pitches and improve his control.

CAREER OUTLOOK: May has the potential to develop into a No. 2 starter – especially if he commands his fastball at the major-league level. He has the frame to become an innings-eater.

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