Adam Dunn as has had an unually huge drop in his production so far this year, especially in relation to his power. Over the rest of the season, people should expect some level of increase production because he really doesn’t that much further to drop. By looking back at players that had similar drops in power, the amount he should rebound can be estimated.

I wanted to look at how a hitter performed in the second half of the season and the next year after a huge power drop in the first half of the season. Thanks to our own Eric Seidman, I got a list of the players after 1973 that had at least 1200 PA in the 3 prior seasons, 100 PA before or on July 1st, 100 PA after July 1st and had a similar drop in production as Adam Dunn.

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While the Tigers and the Indians sit atop the division, the AL Central is still a relatively open race. The White Sox and the Twins might sit 5 and 6.5 games out, respectively, but the failure of both the leaders to establish dominance has left questions open. All four of these teams have flaws that could certainly haunt them in the second half. That should open up opportunities for the two trailers to make up ground. The White Sox probably stand the best chance due to their strong pitching staff, which ranks fourth in the league with 14.6 WAR. They’ll need some help on the other side of the ball, though, if they want to seriously turn things around.

I’ve written previously about the team’s folly of using Juan Pierre at the top of the lineup, and at all. Yet he’s not the only one dragging down the offense. In fact, the entire White Sox outfield has accumulated just 1.8 WAR this season, and that includes Carlos Quentin’s 2.4 WAR. While Pierre ranks the lowest at -0.7, the man standing to his left isn’t far behind. Alex Rios has produced -0.6 WAR this season. If this were just a half-season of futility the Sox might have hope for the future. But this is something that has been going on for about a year now.

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Whence we last examined yonder batting orders, we came away with several expected observations (Jose Bautista plays baseball like a video game, the Oakland Athletics do not care much for scoring runs, Rick Ankiel and Ian Desmond are not feared hitters, and so forth) as well as a number of curious findings (the Cubs lead-off combo was tops in the majors, the 7th hitters on AL teams were worse than the 9th hitters, NL managers effectively managed the bottoms of their lineups, and such).

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A.J. Pierzynski is, in his own words, “not what people think.” But that only applies to off the field. The ChiSox catcher readily acknowledges being Public Enemy No. 1 between the white lines, an irascible gamer who cares far less about making friends than he does about winning. The 14-year, big-league veteran doesn’t mind that perception, just so as long as fans realize that he’s not a villain in street clothes. He may share traits with Ozzie Guillen — and get along with Barry Bonds — but he also stops to smell the roses. Behind the mask, big, bad A.J. Pierzynski is just a regular guy who likes to have fun.

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David Laurila: Who is A.J. Pierzynski?

AJ Pierzynski: I’m not what people think I am, for one thing. A lot of people think I’m a rough-and-tough and mean person. I’m just a normal guy who likes to have fun and is lucky enough to play baseball for a living.

DL: Where does that perception come from?

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Some players make their name for prodigious power and hit home runs in five consecutive games like Paul Konerko. Other players are known more for their feet and steal bags in four straight like Juan Pierre did earlier this year.

But, among these great luminaries of our time, there is one White Sox player who threatens to be the best ever at what he does: Carlos Quentin. That’s right, in more than 2,200 plate appearances, Quentin is already threatening the top of a certain leaderboard.

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Some teams get it, and some teams do not. As we discussed last week, the White Sox apparently do not. They’re just 4.5 games out of the AL Central lead after an abysmal start, yet they continue playing one of the league’s weakest hitters and placing him atop their lineup. That’s only going to hamper their chances to overtake the Tigers and Indians. A move is necessary, but they’re not making it.

The Seattle Mariners, on the other hand, appear to understand their current position. They’re at .500, just a game and a half behind Texas for the AL West crown. They have the league’s least potent offense, which surprises no one. But they had areas where they can improve. Earlier this month I wrote about Chone Figgins and his job security. Last week the Mariners finally made the move, recalling Dustin Ackley and benching Figgins. It might not be a cure-all for the offense, but the move shows their willingness to make the team better even if it means bruising some egos.

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The White Sox are a team on the rebound. After a dismal April in which they went 10-18 with a -34 run differential, they’ve turned things around and have gone 27-21 since, bringing them to within two games of .500 and to within 4.5 games of the AL Central lead. They still face a number of problems, including four starters with wOBAs below .300. But given how good their top guys have been, they can mask that for a bit until the trailers either pick up their performances, or GM Kenny Williams swings a trade for upgrades.

In the meantime, the Sox should be maximizing their resources by playing the guys who are actually hitting, and putting them in prominent lineup spots. Unfortunately, Ozzie Guillen has continued to hit one of his worst hitters atop the lineup, and doesn’t play another who has produced in his limited appearances.

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The Milwaukee Brewers’ “all in” offseason, during which they traded a good chunk of young talent (including some of their best prospects like Brett Lawrie and Jake Odorizzi) to dramatically improve their pitching staff, seems to be working. New Brewers Shaun Marcum and Zack Greinke are dominating so far (although it hasn’t shown in Greinke’s ERA), and Milwaukee is currently in first place in the National League Central. However, as part of the price for acquiring Greinke from the Royals, the Brewers had to take on shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt. Betancourt has somehow been even worse than the Brewers might have expected (perhaps he’s the victim of a curse), and is at -0.5 WAR so far. Betancourt isn’t hitting, and he has only exacerbated the Brewers problems in the field. The Brewers are in the divisional lead, as mentioned, but some might doubt whether the Brewers can make the playoffs with Betancourt playing like, well, Betancourt. What does history tell us about replacement level players and playoff teams?

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Over the course of his reign as White Sox Manager, Ozzie Guillen has made headlines by saying outrageous things to the media. This week may have been no different, as Guillen told the media Paul Konerko was a future Hall of Fame candidate. Since joining the White Sox in 1999, Konerko has been a force in the middle of the lineup on the South Side. Even though Konerko has churned out some strong seasons over that period, it seems laughable (if not insane) that he would one day be considered for the Hall of Fame. With that said, do Guillen’s comments actually hold weight or is this another example of Ozzie making headlines with his mouth?
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Every season, there’s always one thing in demand at the trade deadline — starting pitching. Nearly every contender outside of Philadelphia is in the hunt for another rotation arm, and the demand always outstrips the supply. While there’s no Cliff Lee on the block this year, there are still some interesting arms who could make a difference down the stretch. Here are the best candidates:

PLAYER: Edwin Jackson
TEAM: White Sox
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): Yankees, Red Sox, Reds
CONTRACT STATUS: $8.35 million, free agent at end of year
PROJECTED WAR: 1.8

The White Sox might end up trading Jackson even if they get back in the race for the AL Central title, as they currently have six starting pitchers for just five slots. Jackson is no stranger to changing teams, as he’s been dealt by Los Angeles, Tampa Bay, Detroit, and Arizona since arriving in the Major Leagues. Given the White Sox surplus of arms and his impending free agency, he’s a good bet to be packing his bags once again.

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