Cheesesteaks vs. French Dips: Dodgers vs. Phillies NLDS Preview

Meat + bread + mess are one of the most iconic food combinations known to humanity. Two of my favorites are classics of Philadelphia and Los Angeles, wonderful amalgamations that make a sloppy mess of whiz or jus go down my chin and, too often, the shirt that I’m wearing. I’ve always lived in the eastern part of the United States, so I have more practical experience with cheesesteak locations (I’m partial to Dalessandro’s and John’s Roast Pork). But the French dip is wonderful as well — I have at least gotten to try it at Philippe the Original — and I also love its cousin, quesabirria. Whichever you prefer, you’re choosing from two of the heavy hitters in good, casual food.

I’m not talking about deliciousness because I’m hungry, even though it’s almost dinnertime, but because the Dodgers and Phillies play a similar role in baseball: They’re not everyone’s favorites, but they’re two of the most successful franchises of the last 15 years, and if you’re an NL team, there’s a good chance you’ll have to go through one or both of these teams en route to a championship.

The Rotations

This year’s Phillies haven’t been bitten by as many injuries as the Dodgers have in recent seasons, but the ones they’ve had have been significant. Zack Wheeler won’t be found this postseason, or much of anywhere next year either, after undergoing thoracic outlet depression surgery last month to address one of the most dreaded of pitcher ailments. The longest-standing legacy member of the rotation, Aaron Nola, finished the regular season with his best start of the season, but it came after a half-season of general ineffectiveness and a half-season of recovering from an ankle injury and a fractured rib. That’s the bad news. The good news is the breakout season of Cristopher Sánchez — arguably his second consecutive one — that saw him become the biggest rival to Paul Skenes for this year’s NL Cy Young award. Ranger Suárez also put up career bests in innings, ERA, FIP, and WAR, and Jesús Luzardo rebounded to his 2023 performance. A five-game series with three off days gives the Phillies just about their optimal rotation, at least from among the healthy hurlers, as they shouldn’t need a fourth starter (probably Nola) until the NLCS if they get there, and shouldn’t need to go to either Taijuan Walker or Walker Buehler (signed August 31) at all.

Los Angeles is actually in a pretty good place in terms of rotation health, at least compared to its normal condition. Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are healthy, and though he didn’t make any appearances against the Reds, Tyler Glasnow was a bullpen option during the Wild Card series and could also grab a start in the Division Series. For the first time in a while, the Dodgers should be able to get through the postseason with four excellent starters. In fact, this year, they have a surplus of solid starting pitchers, as Clayton Kershaw in his farewell season and rookie Roki Sasaki, now back from injury, are expected to get high-leverage innings in relief.

If I tell ZiPS to only look at the top three starting pitchers in these two rotations, the Phillies and Dodgers rank first and second, respectively, with a chasm before the Mariners. The Dodgers inch ahead in a seven-game series thanks to the superiority of their fourth-starter options, but I’d be lying if I said either team had an significant advantage here.

The Lineups

The injured Will Smith was on the Wild Card Series roster, but he made no pinch-hitting appearances against the Reds, and he hasn’t caught a game in a month. Ben Rortvedt did the bulk of the catching down the stretch and in the two Wild Card games, and I don’t think there’s any way not to call this a massive downgrade. ZiPS sees this as a larger concern in the NLDS because all three of the Phillies starting pitchers are lefties. The Dodgers didn’t have a big platoon split during the season (5 points of OPS), but that’s because Smith was in the lineup, and ZiPS sees him as the second-best hitter against lefties on the team (a projected .798 OPS). Despite the drop-off from Smith to Rortvedt, ZiPS views the Dodgers are the second-best playoff team against southpaws, behind the Yankees, but in a tight matchup, small differences can make a major impact on the outcome of a series.

Even without Smith starting, the Dodgers have a lineup with Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman, so the supporting cast would have to be absolutely atrocious to make this offense not scary. And this supporting cast is more than adequate, with outfielders Teoscar Hernández and Andy Pages, as well as third baseman Max Muncy, who continues to avoid the mid-30s offensive decline. Tommy Edman has his moments, and the Dodgers seem to have finally noticed that Michael Conforto no longer hits like a major leaguer. The team’s bench is solid, with Dalton Rushing much better than the typical third catcher on a roster, and plenty of opportunity to play platoons, especially with infielders Muncy and Miguel Rojas.

The Phillies have the front-end talent to contend with the Dodgers, but their depth is much weaker. Kyle Schwarber is an offensive beast who would have found home with the 1993 Phillies, and I doubt I have to trumpet the bonafides of Bryce Harper or Trea Turner. But J.T. Realmuto isn’t quite the player he was a few years ago, and both corner outfield spots (largely handled by Max Kepler and Nick Castellanos this season) ranked in the bottom third of the league in WAR. Center fielder Harrison Bader has excelled since coming over at the deadline from Minnesota, and his addition has provided the added benefit of sliding Brandon Marsh to left field, but there’s still a significant difference in the overall offensive projections. Notice I say overall here, because there’s some good news on the projection front: ZiPS sees the team disparity as mostly being against left-handed pitchers. Against righties, ZiPS has both teams as being projected to score 5.2 runs per game (against average pitching), but against lefties, it sees a 5.0 to 4.4 runs per game edge for the Dodgers. Three of the four Los Angeles starters expected to pitch throw right-handed, and as things are stand, the lone lefty, Snell, is lined up to only start once in this series, in Game 2, though because of the three off days in the series, he could start Game 5 on four days of rest. Those platoon splits are extreme enough that if I were Dave Roberts, I would do whatever is necessary to get Snell the ball two times if this series goes the distance.

The Bullpens

It kind of feels like most of the relievers traded at the deadline didn’t actually work out, but the Phillies had one of the exceptions in Jhoan Duran. The top four in the Phillies bullpen (Duran, Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, David Robertson) is enough that ZiPS thinks that this is the best bullpen in baseball right now, even without José Alvarado (who would be disqualified from the postseason if he were healthy). Basically, any reliever that Philadelphia is likely to use over the next week projects as above average, even Buehler if he’s on the roster and used in relief.

I’d argue that the bullpen injuries are more consequential for the Dodgers than their starter injuries right now, though the return of Sasaki and the ability to have extra starters in the pen mitigates this to some degree. I’m not as bullish on a Tanner Scott rebound as some are (including the projections) given the drop-off in his strikeout rate the last few years, but when you add in Blake Treinen, Alex Vesia, Sasaki, the spare starters, and the surprisingly solid Jack Dreyer, it’s still a very good group, even if it’s a hair behind the Phillies and scares the crap out of Dodgers fans on a nightly basis.

The Projection

I went with two different scenarios here, based on how the Dodgers use their rotation.

While it’s only a few percentage points, the scenarios in which Snell gets two starts are the optimized ones, at least according to ZiPS. In any case, the projections suggest a small, but consistent edge for the Dodgers, with their slight offensive advantage outweighing a slight bullpen disadvantage and the Phillies’ getting home field advantage.

We’re not going to settle any sandwich debates in the next week, but we will find out which one of these teams will go home hungry, with the bitter aftertaste of an early postseason elimination.