Contact Quality: Just a Part of the Puzzle, 2014 AL Pitchers

In the recent past, we’ve discussed many of the various aspects of the emerging granular batted-ball velocity/exit angle data that is all the rage today. Last week, we looked at the hitters with the best and worst contact quality in both the American and National Leagues; over the next couple weeks, it’s the starting pitchers’ turn, as we look at the best and worst contact managers in the game in 2014. Today, let’s look at the American League. You’ll notice that contact management was quite central to AL starting pitcher success last season.

With the advent of StatCast, batted-ball exit speed/angle data has finally begun to wend its way into the public domain. Though it is very valuable information, one must resist the temptation to rank offensive players, let alone pitchers, by their ability to hit the ball hard, as there is a whole lot else to take into consideration. Hitters’ BABIPs are driven by batted-ball authority; with pitchers, the relationship can be much more subtle. This is not to say, however, that there aren’t pitchers at both ends of the contact-management spectrum with entrenched tendencies that drive their overall games.

Most BIP type frequencies (popups, fly balls, grounders) correlate very strongly from year to year. Line-drive rates are much more random, though there are outliers on either end of the spectrum who have developed long-term tendencies. BIP authority allowed by pitchers on various batted-ball types correlates much less strongly, though again, there are some outliers — especially with respect to ground ball authority — who have developed enduring abilities to limit contact authority.

Below is a list of the top-five AL pitcher contact scores for 2014 among the 39 qualifiers for the ERA title. This is a measure of contact quality which is scaled to a league average of 100. Every one of each pitcher’s batted balls allowed was essentially placed in a neutral environment, and credited with MLB average performance based on its speed and vertical and horizontal angles off of the bat:

	C SCORE	W/K & BB	AL RANK	ACT ERA	AL RANK
Keuchel	75	74	7	77	7
Sale	76	55	1	57	2
G.Richards	77	69	4	69	5
F.Hernandez	82	63	2	56	1
Cobb	83	76	9	75	6

Each pitcher’s contact score (denoted as C Score) is listed in the first column. Their Ks and BBs are added back in the second column, yielding an overall adjusted production score, assuming a neutral environment, which I like to call the pitcher’s “tru” ERA. The third column lists their AL rank in that category, among the 39 ERA qualifiers. The fourth column lists their actual ERA relative to the league, and the fifth and last column lists their AL rank in that category.

For each player, we’ll peel back a couple layers and discuss why his contact score is so strong. It might not just be authority allowed; it could be line-drive infrequency, pop-up or ground ball frequency, or any one of a number of other factors. We’ll also discuss any significant variations between their contact quality allowed and their overall actual performance.

1 – Dallas Keuchel – In case you haven’t noticed, this guy’s the real deal. We’ve discussed his contact-management ability in this space more than once. Keuchel had the highest grounder rate in the majors last season, and is one of the few MLB hurlers who appears to have an established ability to limit line-drive contact, with percentile ranks of 3 and 4 in two of the last three seasons. It’s way more than grounder frequency that makes him tick; his average grounder and fly-ball authority allowed were both AL lows, over two standard deviations below the league average last season. His BB rate was low, but not overly so, and his K rate has improved, but was still below league average last season. Keuchel is a perfect storm of contact-management ability, arguably the only true star pitcher in the game today whose game isn’t centered upon Ks and BBs.

2 – Chris Sale – Sale’s game is chiefly centered upon his K and BB excellence (adding them back lowers his already excellent contact score by 21 basis points), but in 2014, he was one of the AL’s premier contact managers as well. He posted a high pop-up rate (86th percentile) and an extremely low liner rate (2nd percentile). The liner rate was an outlier, his first below average seasonal liner rate, appearing ripe for regression moving forward, and the pop-up rate, which could eventually be a true talent of Sale’s, hasn’t carried over to 2015 to this point. Sale allowed plenty of fly balls (85th percentile) last season, and allowed average fly-ball and liner contact authority of over one half a standard deviation below AL average. Sale is an exceptional K/BB guy with solid, but not exceptional, contact-management skills at this stage in his career; last year might go down as his best contact-management season.

3 – Garrett Richards – Like Keuchel, but not to as great an extent, Richards relies on strong ground-ball frequency and overall contact-authority management for his success. His grounder rate was in the 84th percentile last season, and his average grounder and fly-ball authority allowed were both over a full standard deviation below AL average. His average liner authority was also over a half standard deviation better than league average. Richards’ contact-management skills weren’t quite as good as Keuchel’s, but his K rate was much higher, allowing him to slightly outpace him in terms of “tru” ERA. The combination of missed bats and a large supply of weak grounders should serve as the core of Richards’ game moving forward.

4 – Felix Hernandez – Like Sale, Hernandez possesses an exceptional K/BB foundation that is supplemented by his contact-management abilities; his 2014 contact score plunged by 19 basis points to a “tru” ERA of 63 once the Ks and BBs were added back. His always strong grounder rate has trended up in recent seasons, and ranked in the 92nd percentile last season. Last year may have been a career year for Felix, as his liner rate cratered down into the 6th percentile. Hernandez’s grounder authority allowed was the 2nd best among AL qualifiers to Keuchel last season, averaging over two standard deviations less than his AL peers. Interestingly, however, he actually allowed fairly hard fly-ball and line-drive contact, averaging over a full standard deviation above the AL mean. If Felix’s grounder rate ever declines materially, he could be in trouble in a hurry.

5 – Alex Cobb – It’s fitting, given the inherent risk of pitchers, that one of our five 2014 AL contact score leaders will miss all of 2015 because of Tommy John surgery. Cobb’s core talent is his grounder-inducing ability (91st percentile in 2014), and his breakthrough year was aided by an unsustainably low liner rate (4th percentile). Cobb’s K and BB rates were both above average for the first time last season. Going forward, Cobb projects as a good but not great contact manager; his fly-ball, liner and grounder authority allowed all ranked in the average range last season.

You’ll note that there are no flukes on the list of the AL’s top five contact managers last season; they all ranked among the very best starting pitchers in the league. Corey Kluber and David Price had the third and fourth best “tru” ERAs in the league, once Ks and BBs were added back to their contact scores. Kluber had the sixth-best contact score in the AL, just missing the above list. Price, however, finished 19th in contact management, squarely in the middle of the qualifier pack, and had no exceptionally positive core contact management attributes. He actually allowed fly-ball authority of over a full standard deviation above the AL average.

The main takeaway: contact management is really, really important. To be a truly great starter in the big leagues today, it’s not enough to simply miss a ton of bats and minimize walks. Unless one does both to a prodigious extent, like Price, at least one core contact-management skill is required to propel you to the elite level.

To see how the other half lives, here is a facsimile of the first table, only this time with the bottom-five AL contact scores listed:

	C SCORE	W/K & BB	AL RANK	ACT ERA	AL RANK
C.Lewis	127	122	39	136	38
W-Y.Chen	117	109	36	93	20
B.Norris	108	101	29	96	23
C.Young	106	115	38	96	24
Noesi	106	109	35	125	37

Here’s a distinguishing characteristic or two for each of the five AL contact score laggards:

1 – Colby Lewis – He’s always been a big pop-up (91st percentile in 2014) and fly-ball (86th) guy, and that worked as long as he maintained a higher than average K rate and controlled fly-ball authority. Neither of those criteria were met last season; in fact, he allowed hard contact of all stripes, yielding fly-ball and grounder contact over one, and liner contact over two, standard deviations higher than the AL average. By far, he allowed the hardest line-drive contact of all MLB ERA qualifiers last season. Thus far in 2015, his liner rate has regressed downward, and he has managed fly-ball contact much better, at least for now.

2 – Wei-Yin Chen – Chen is perhaps best known for his ability to perennially post ERAs much lower than his FIPs in his still relatively brief MLB career. Contact management is not the reason for this. His frequency profile was nondescript in 2014, with all BIP types in the average range, though he previously had a pronounced fly-ball tendency. Last season, his average liner and ground-ball authority allowed were over a half standard deviation harder than the AL average. The main reason for his FIP-beating tendencies? How about his career performance with RISP (.221/.271/.364) versus with the bases empty (.270/.318/.436). He just might simply be a superior pitcher from the stretch.

3 – Bud Norris – Norris is among the worst contact managers ever among four-time ERA qualifiers. His frequency profile tends to be fairly nondescript, though his liner rate allowed (56th percentile in 2014) is usually high. His average grounder authority was over one and his liner authority was over a half standard deviation above the AL mean last season. Toss in his typically higher than average BB rate, and it’s tough to see Norris being any more than a bottom-of-the-rotation innings-eater moving forward.

4 – Chris Young – The outlier among outliers. Young’s outlandish pop-up rate of 21.3% in 2014 was over 2.5 times the 2014 AL average. The words “99th percentile” don’t do his pop-up rate any justice. Without including all of those pop-ups, his fly-ball rate was still in the 95th percentile, and his grounder rate was by far the lowest among MLB ERA qualifiers. However, he allowed fairly loud batted-ball authority: all of those fly balls were, on average, hit over a standard deviation harder than the AL average. Among the bottom-five contact managers in the AL, Young had by far the largest difference between his actual (96) and “tru” ERA (115). The reason? Safeco Field, an extreme, extreme, fly-ball pitcher’s best friend.

5 – Hector Noesi – I’ll go out on a limb and predict that Noesi will never again pitch enough innings to qualify for an ERA title. His relatively low K rate leaves him little margin for error. He doesn’t yield many grounders, with pop-up, fly-ball and liner percentile ranks of 76, 80 and 83, respectively. Two of those three figures are bad news, assuming you allow average fly-ball authority of over a half standard deviation harder than league average like Noesi did in 2014. Toss a hitter-friendly home park on top of everything, and there you have it.

Three of the five contact-management laggards (Chen, Norris, Young) actually posted above-average actual ERAs in 2014. Young, as earlier noted, had Safeco in his corner, and Chen (in addition to his RISP magic) and Norris had an exceptional team defense lending a hand. While tremendously important, there is much more to pitching (and hitting) than contact quality. What solid contact management ability does accomplish, however, is the creation of a margin for error. You don’t need to miss as many bats or minimize walk totals quite as much as the next guy if you possess the ability to regularly generate weak infield grounders. It gives the guy with relatively ordinary stuff — and the club without the deepest pockets — a chance. Ask the Houston Astros, and Dallas Keuchel.