Contact-Score Leaders and Laggards at the Break

As we unwind during baseball’s midsummer break, let’s take a look at the hitters and pitchers whose first-half contact scores sat at the extremes. For those of you who haven’t read my previous work on this topic, a player’s raw contact score is determined by stripping the strikeouts and walks (Ks and BBs) from his record. Run values are applied to all other events, and scaled to league average, represented by 100. Raw contact scores aren’t adjusted for context, so some noise can remain, often caused by home park, player speed, or luck. Still, the most pertinent variable is usually contact authority and overall quality, made or allowed.

First, we’ll look at the position players, limiting our population to players who have accumulated enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title at the break. We’ll briefly recap the players with the top-ten and bottom-five contact scores in each league. The top- and bottom-five qualified starting pitchers will follow:

NL TOP 10 HITTERS

1 – Bryce Harper – 270 – That is an absolutely insane contact score. If Harper maintained it over the rest of the season, it would tie for the 17th-highest single-season mark of all time with Mickey Mantle’s 1957 season. It would fall just short of Barry Bonds‘ 272 mark in 2001 for highest of this century. How great a season is this? While the power is obvious, it’s the subtleties that set it apart. His K and pop-up rates are both in the average range, very low for a power hitter, and his walk rate is off of the charts.

2 – Giancarlo Stanton – 230 – On one hand, Stanton’s raw contact score is limited a bit by his spacious home park. On the other, it is negatively impacted his very high pop-up rate (in the 95th percentile). His 99th percentile K rate doesn’t help him either, making him a much riskier superstar than Harper at this point.

3 – Paul Goldschmidt – 221 – The unappreciated superstar. While Harper and Stanton have very high pull rates, Goldschmidt hits the ball to the middle of the field more often than any NL regular. At this stage of his career, it doesn’t matter: he could hit it out of Yellowstone. His pop-up rate is well below league average, and his walk rate is second only to Harper in the NL.

4 – Kris Bryant – 185 – It’s been quite a loud entrance for the Cubs’ rookie, who at this point is a three-true-outcome type. His K and BB rates are obviously high, but his pop-up and fly-ball rates are both over a standard deviation above league average, and his liner rate is over one below. The positive is that the liner rate should positively regress; the negative is that he should remain extremely streaky in the short term.

5 – Freddie Freeman – 171 – Talk about under-the-radar excellence. Line-drive rates are the most variable among BIP types; there are only a handful of players who can be relied upon to excel in that category on an ongoing basis. Freeman is certainly one of them, with his annual liner rate percentile ranks ranging from 85 to 99 from 2011 to -14; it’s sitting at 96 through the break. Toss in a K rate in the average range and overall BIP authority in the 88th percentile, and you have a star.

6 – Brandon Belt – 169 – Here just might be another player who can be relied upon for a high liner rate. When healthy in 2012-13, he posted liner percentile ranks of 84 and 77; this year, he’s posted the highest liner rate in either league to date. While second-half regression should be expected in that category, he has clearly established himself as a strong producer in a pitchers’ park.

7 – Joc Pederson – 169 – Similar to, but a bit less extreme than Bryant. The K and BB rates are both extremely high, and the liner rate is very low, inviting some positive regression in the second half. While Bryant’s fly-ball rate can be expected to decline moving forward, Pederson’s is in a much more reasonable range that shouldn’t negatively regress moving forward. His average batted-ball authority has also been much higher than Bryant’s in the first half.

8 – Todd Frazier – 157 – On the positive side, Frazier is making a lot more contact than in the past: his K rate is actually below the NL average, with a 46 percentile rank. On the negative side, his pop-up rate has exploded, and is currently the highest in the league. Don’t be surprised in the Home Run Derby champ picks up the pace in the second half: his current liner-rate percentile rank of 24 is well below his career norms.

9 – Troy Tulowitzki – 154 – Coors Field certainly helps him a bit here. His fly-ball/liner-authority percentile rank of 46 sits squarely in the average range, but in the mile-high air, average authority becomes well above-average production. His walk rate has taken a major hit since 2013, a disturbing trend.

10 – Nolan Arenado – 147 – Another Coors special. Arenado makes an exceptionally high amount of contact; he’s never had a single-season K or BB percentile rank above 23. His fly-ball and pull rates are also well up this season, driving up his contact score and production in the short term, but potentially opening some holes on the outer part of the plate in the long term. His fly-ball/liner authority percentile rank is well above average at 67, so it’s not all Coors.

NL BOTTOM 5 HITTERS

1 – Billy Hamilton – 54 – A 54 contact score, unadjusted for context that would weed out the impact of his blazing speed and lower it further. His overall and fly-ball/liner authority percentile ranks are 1, and his grounder authority percentile rank is 7. At least his K and BB rates have moved in the right directions this season.

2 – Jimmy Rollins – 63 – The bill has finally come due. Cheating to pull from both sides of the plate worked for him in Philly, but not so much in Chavez Ravine, where the soft spots power-wise are in the middle of the field. No NL hitter pulls the ball more than Rollins, whose overall BIP authority percentile rank is 6. Not a good combination.

3 – Andrelton Simmons – 64 – The future doesn’t look good for Simmons’ bat. Thankfully, he never strikes out, and has his stellar defense to fall back upon. He’s posted a meager contact score despite a career best — by far — liner-rate percentile rank of 63 this season. His career high was 8, so expect some negative regression.

4 – Jordy Mercer – 70 – A fairly vanilla offensive package here. Mercer rarely walks or strikes out, and has no discernible batted-ball tendency frequency-wise. The bar is low at this position, and his ability to put the ball in play and actually hit it harder than average on the ground (56 authority percentile rank) keeps him afloat.

5 – Starlin Castro – 72 – This is an interesting case. Castro has shown solid power for his position in the past, and has shown a knack for squaring up the ball, never posting a liner percentile rank lower than 58 entering 2015. This year, it sits way down at 5. This is likely due in part to a plunge in his BB rate, but in any event, I would not expect Castro to rank this low at season’s end.

AL TOP 10 HITTERS

1 – Mike Trout – 216 – Pretty close to perfection here. He hits the ball harder (97 overall authority percentile rank), and squares it up about as often (career liner percentile rank range from 68 to 94, including 92 in 2014) as anyone. His K rate is high but down from last season, and he has significantly cut his pop-up rate after a one-year blip to a 71 percentile rank in 2014. Enjoy the show.

2 – J.D. Martinez – 199 – One player has a higher hard-contact percentage than Trout in the AL this season, and it’s Martinez. He actually hits the ball in the air too often: his fly-ball percentile rank has stood at 94 in both 2014 and 2015, and he is one of a small minority of players who crushes the ball in the air, and hits it weakly on the ground. That combo is working in the short-term, but may have a relatively limited shelf life. On the plus side, he crushes the ball to the opposite field, a trait that has more staying power.

3 – Miguel Cabrera – 193 – A 193 contact score, with no leg hits. Adjusted for context, he’d rank even higher. What’s not to like? His walk rate has bounced back compared to 2014, he still never strikes out, has never had a liner percentile rank below 66 (it’s 74 in 2015), and has an overall BIP authority percentile rank of 98. A hitting machine.

4 – Nelson Cruz – 188 – He’s cooled off significantly since his monster April, but his offensive game has stabilized as he’s honed some of its rough edges in recent years. His walk rate percentile rank bounced up to 62 in 2014 and 67 so far this year, and his liner-rate percentile rank, which has never been above average, has been in the mid-40s both years. He’s likely peaked, but his decline now projects to be less sudden than it once did. He still shouldn’t play the outfield.

5 – Jimmy Paredes – 159 – Career-year alert. Paredes’ first-half performance is BABIP-fueled, due in part to a liner-rate percentile rank of 72 that is unlikely to hold up. He’s an extreme pull hitter and ground-ball generator, two traits that usually don’t coexist very well. Throw in his poor K/BB ratio and, especially, his AL-high swing-and-miss percentage, and there’s a ton of risk here, without the corresponding potential reward.

6 – Mitch Moreland – 159 – Very quietly, Moreland has always hit the ball quite hard, with his overall results contained by perennially low liner rates; his career-best percentile rank entering 2015 was 34. Thus far in 2015, he’s hitting some more liners (46 percentile rank) and has toned down his once extreme fly-ball tendency, with positive results.

7 – Chris Davis – 158 – What a strange offensive player. Obviously, when you strike out as much as Davis, you need an extreme contact score just to stay afloat. While his power is obvious, his other main offensive attribute is not. Would you believe that Davis is a reliable line-drive generator? He’s never had a liner-rate percentile rank below 71, and it stands at 91 this season. His secondary negative attribute is a crusher, just like his K rate: his extreme pull tendency invites infield overshifts and kills his average and OBP. To succeed, he needs to have even higher contact scores than this.

8 – George Springer – 155 – His crushing injury was the catalyst for the Astros’ recent slump. His only red flag as an amateur was a massive K rate against ordinary competition, but he has quickly cobbled together an effective all-around offensive package. His BB rate percentile rank has mitigated the K issues, and he has hit for power while almost never popping up: his pop-up percentile rank thus far is 3. His liner rate (94 percentile rank) is certain to regress, but the future is bright.

9 – Alex Rodriguez – 152 – This guy sure does get crushed a lot, so let’s give him some credit for a change. From 2008 to -12, he never had a pop-up percentile rank below 59. This season, it’s 2. His overall BIP authority percentile rank is 92. It’s been a combination of technique and authority, after being away for the game for a very long time. Pretty special stuff.

10 – Josh Donaldson – 151 – As great as he’s been the last season and a half, I’m still waiting for him to explode. You see, his liner-rate percentile rank in 2014 was 4; this year, it’s 15. His K rate is quite good for a power hitter, his pop-up-rate percentile rank has plunged to 39 this year, and his overall BIP authority percentile rank is 94. Though Trout’s certainly going to make it tough, I stand by my preseason pick of Donaldson for AL MVP.

AL BOTTOM 5 HITTERS

1 – Alexei Ramirez – 51 – Robin Ventura says that Ramirez’ average will wind up at .270 by the end of the season, but I beg to differ. He’s put up a 51 contact score in an extreme hitters’ park in the first half, with no upcoming regression suggested by his BIP frequencies. The problem is, he swings at everything, and is content to make weak contact, with an overall BIP authority percentile rank of 5, and fly-ball/liner mark of 6 to this point.

2 – Stephen Drew – 60 – Hate to say it, but Drew appears to be done. One could explain away the AL-worst liner rate and look forward to positive second-half regression if there weren’t so many other red flags. He’s selling out for fly balls to the pull side in a park that rewards such behavior, but his overall BIP authority percentile rank of 14 has stopped him short. Looks like 2014 Raul Ibanez to me.

3 – Omar Infante – 64 – Your almost All Star second baseman has been trending down awhile now. Infante is struggling despite a career-best liner percentile rank of 86, because of an upward bump in his previously minuscule K rate, and an overall BIP authority percentile rank of 4. His quiet fade is likely to intensify.

4 – Elvis Andrus – 64 – He is who he is, a contact hitter who will usually post an above-average liner rate (69 percentile rank so far in 2015) while hitting a ton of grounders. Prior to 2015, his grounder percentile was either 95 or 96 for an amazing six consecutive seasons. It’s actually backslid to 60 this season, which is a bad thing when your fly-ball/liner authority percentile rank stands at 10.

5 – Didi Gregorius – 69 – Not sure how much better it’s going to get for Gregorius offensively. His walk rate keeps declining, and despite his highest liner-rate percentile rank by far (49 in 2015 compared to previous career high of 10), this is it. There are an awful lot of shortstops on these bottom-five lists, so at the least the bar is low.

NL TOP 5 STARTING PITCHERS

1 – Zack Greinke – 56 – Never a particularly strong contact manager, Greinke’s line-drive percentile rank allowed has been higher than league average every year from 2009-14. This year, it stands at 10, so expect some negative regression. He has managed grounder contact quite well: his average authority allowed approximates the impact of the average Didi Gregorius grounder.

2 – Jacob deGrom – 65 – The most significant drivers behind deGrom’s 2015 improvement are a decline in his BB rate, and continued strong K (84 percentile rank) and pop-up rates (63). Like Greinke, he has held grounder authority in check: his average authority allowed approximates the typical Andrelton Simmons grounder.

3 – Max Scherzer – 71 What a year. Incredible K (97 percentile rank) and BB (3) rates, not to mention the highest pop-up rate in the NL and a liner percentile rank of 3. Scherzer has historically been a poor contact manager, but his improvements seem real to this point, though liner rate regression is due. His typical grounder allowed approximates one hit by Jose Iglesias.

4 – Francisco Liriano – 71 – The Pirates certainly have brought out the best of Liriano’s contact-management skills. His grounder percentile rank of 86 is his best since 2010, and those grounders are hit much more softly now than they were then. His grounder authority allowed approximates Scherzer’s to date. If you are among the few that can elevate the ball against him, it’s a different story, as he’s allowed higher average fly-ball authority than any pitcher we’ll discuss today, including those on the bottom five lists.

5 – Johnny Cueto – 73 – Cueto has been one of the NL’s best contact managers in recent years. Frequency-wise, Cueto has developed a solid pop-up-inducing tendency (80 and 73 percentile ranks in 2014-15), and has a history of allowing below-average authority across BIP types.

NL BOTTOM 5 STARTING PITCHERS

1 – James Shields – 141 – The average batted ball hit off of James Shields this season has been at 90 MPH, the highest of any pitcher listed here today. That’s basically the average Jason Kipnis batted ball. His historically high BB rate certainly hasn’t helped, nor has the Padres’ moribund team defense.

2 – Kyle Lohse – 131 – The cliff finally welcomed Lohse this season. As always, his K and BB rates have been low, and his pop-up rates high, but his liner percentile rank has skyrocketed to 97, and his average BIP authority has followed suit. The average liner hit off of Lohse this season has been hit at 95.7 MPH, and his average fly-ball/liner allowed approximates one hit by Joc Pederson. Not good.

3 – Kyle Kendrick – 128 – Coors is only part of the reason here. His K rate percentile rank has been in single digits five of the last seven seasons; this year, it stands at 1. His liner rate allowed hadn’t been above average since 2010; this year, it’s 84, a real no-no in Coors Field. Average BIP authority is a real problem as well, as it’s second worst among qualifying starters to Shields.

4 – Rubby de la Rosa – 127 – The young D-Back lacks a go-to frequency strength related to K, BB or BIP. His average grounder authority allowed is quite high at 88.0 MPH, which is the average speed of a Kipnis grounder.

5 – Matt Garza 123 – The second Brewer in the bottom five, not a good sign. Garza actually was a strong contact manager in 2014. His liner rate allowed percentile rank was just 19 then, however, compared to 76 thus far in 2015. That’s been his primary issue, as his average BIP authority allowed is much lower than that of the other bottom four; in fact, it’s much closer to Cueto’s average. Poor team defense hasn’t helped his cause.

AL TOP FIVE STARTING PITCHERS

1 – Sonny Gray – 57 – Overperformance alert. First and foremost, he has allowed by far the lowest liner rate among qualifying starters, at 13.8%. He had a 26th-percentile rank in that department last year, so there is likely some true talent in play, but 13.8%? He does have a pronounced grounder tendency, with percentile ranks of 90 and 95 in 2014-15. However, he has allowed hard contact thus far this season, way harder than anyone else on either top-five list. Expect a rockier second half for Gray.

2 – Dallas Keuchel – 63 – Now this is what a contact manager looks like. He has posted the highest grounder rate in the AL in 2014-15, and it’s not close. His average grounder authority allowed is also exceptional, checking in just slightly better than Scherzer, who gets to face opposing pitchers on a regular basis.

3 – Chris Young – 67 – The King of Popups has been even better this year than last, when he had Safeco Field as an ally. His pop-up and fly-ball percentile ranks are in the upper 90s as usual, and this year he has managed fly-ball authority much better than last season. The Royals’ outfield defense helps him greatly as well. I don’t think he’ll need to settle for a minor-league deal in 2016.

4 – Yovani Gallardo – 70 – His strikeout rate certainly has gone to pot, but Gallardo has found a second wind as a strong contact manager. His liner rate allowed percentile rank of 23 is actually his second highest of the last five seasons, and his current career-best grounder percentile rank of 85 continues a long-term upward trend.

5 – Jesse Hahn – 70 – A grounder machine in his first full season as a regular starter, Hahn has an 87 grounder rate allowed percentile rank to date. Mitigating factors are his low K rate and a high liner rate percentile rank of 89 that should regress at least somewhat in the second half.

AL BOTTOM FIVE STARTING PITCHERS

1 – CC Sabathia – 143 – Once a high-K pitcher with an extreme grounder rate, this version of Sabathia now sits near league average in both categories. While his average BIP authority allowed is just third highest among the AL bottom five, he is greatly hurt by the ease with which hitters are pulling the baseball against him. Only Jered Weaver is allowing a higher pull percentage among qualifying AL hurlers.

2 – Drew Hutchison – 134 – I foresaw a breakout to the upside for Hutchison this year, but it hasn’t come to pass. His astronomically high liner rate allowed (97 percentile rank, up from 22 in 2014) is a huge part of the problem, and should regress at least somewhat. He has also has a pronounced po-up tendency (81 and 79 in 2014-15), offering hope for the future. His current K/BB ratio doesn’t befit a pitcher with his talent.

3 – Michael Pineda – 133 – The Yankee defense has really hurt Sabathia and Pineda, but the big righty still possesses some contact-management shortcomings. His K and BB rates are stellar, but many of his strikes are too center-cut. In prior seasons, he showed a strong pop-up tendency; that appears to be in the past, as he’s posted a 33 percentile rank in that area to date. The plus here is that if he even becomes an average contact manager, he’ll be a monster.

4 – Carlos Carrasco – 132 – There are some similarities to Pineda here, from their very strong K and BB rates to the poor team defenses behind them. Carrasco does have a pronounced grounder tendency, however, as his 2015 percentile rank of 75 fits snugly within his career norms. He allows thunderous contact in the air, however, right there in Kyle Lohse/Joc Pederson territory.

5 – John Danks – 131 – This one is based more on bad luck than poor contact-management skills. He retains strong pop-up (69 percentile rank in 2015) and fly-ball tendencies (87) that fit right into his career line. He’s allowed the lowest average overall BIP authority of any pitcher on either bottom five. There are plenty of other factors working against him, ranging from his poor K rate and team defense to his hitter-friendly home park.