Contract Crowdsourcing 2015-16: Day 14 of 15

by
October 29, 2015

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the giant and large 2015-16 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for six more of this year’s free agents, which group constitutes the last of the starting pitchers.

Other Players: Brett Anderson / Nori Aoki / Alex Avila / Mark Buehrle / Marlon Byrd / Asdrubal Cabrera / Yoenis Cespedes / Wei-Yin Chen / Bartolo Colon / Johnny Cueto / Chris Davis / Rajai Davis / Alejandro De Aza / Ian Desmond / R.A. Dickey / Stephen Drew / Marco Estrada / Doug Fister / Dexter Fowler / David Freese / Yovani Gallardo / Jaime Garcia / Alex Gordon / Zack Greinke / Jeremy Guthrie / J.A. Happ / Jason Heyward / Rich Hill / Torii Hunter / Chris Iannetta / Hisashi Iwakuma / Austin Jackson / John Jaso / Kelly Johnson / Matt Joyce / Scott Kazmir / Howie Kendrick / Kyle Kendrick / Ian Kennedy / John Lackey / Mat Latos / Mike Leake / Tim Lincecum / Kyle Lohse / Justin Masterson / Justin Morneau / Brandon Morrow / Daniel Murphy / David Murphy / Mike Napoli / Dioner Navarro / Bud Norris / Gerardo Parra / Steve Pearce / Alexei Ramirez / Colby Rasmus / Alex Rios / Jimmy Rollins / Geovany Soto / Denard Span / Justin Upton / Juan Uribe / Chase Utley / Will Venable / Shane Victorino / Matt Wieters / Chris Young the Outfielder / Ben Zobrist.

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Mike Pelfrey (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Pelfrey:

  • Has averaged 113 IP and 1.1 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 2.0 WAR per 200 IP* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 2.0 WAR in 164.2 IP in 2015.
  • Is projected to record 1.7 WAR per 200 IP**.
  • Is entering his age-32 season.
  • Made $5.5M in 2015, as part of deal signed in December 2013.

*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a starting pitcher.
**Prorated version of 2016 Steamer projections available here.

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Click here to estimate years and dollars for Pelfrey.

***

David Price (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Price:

  • Has averaged 218 IP and 5.6 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 5.2 WAR per 200 IP* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 6.4 WAR in 220.1 IP in 2015.
  • Is projected to record 4.7 WAR per 200 IP**.
  • Is entering his age-30 season.
  • Made $19.8M in 2015, as part of deal signed in January 2015.

*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a starting pitcher.
**Prorated version of 2016 Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Price.

***

Jeff Samardzija (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Samardzija:

  • Has averaged 215 IP and 3.2 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 2.9 WAR per 200 IP* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 2.7 WAR in 214.0 IP in 2015.
  • Is projected to record 2.4 WAR per 200 IP**.
  • Is entering his age-31 season.
  • Made $9.8M in 2015, as part of deal signed in January 2015.

*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a starting pitcher.
**Prorated version of 2016 Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Samardzija.

***

Alfredo Simon (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Simon:

  • Has averaged 157 IP and 0.8 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 1.0 WAR per 200 IP* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 1.0 WAR in 187.0 IP in 2015.
  • Is projected to record 0.6 WAR per 200 IP**.
  • Is entering his age-35 season.
  • Made $5.6M in 2015, as part of deal signed in January 2015.

*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a starting pitcher.
**Prorated version of 2016 Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Simon.

***

Chris Young the Pitcher (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Young:

  • Has averaged 144 IP and 0.5 WAR over last two seasons (missed 2013).
  • Has averaged 0.6 WAR per 200 IP* over last two seasons.
  • Recorded a 0.9 WAR in 123.1 IP in 2015.
  • Is projected to record -0.3 WAR per 200 IP**.
  • Is entering his age-37 season.
  • Made $0.7M in 2015 (plus incentives), as part of deal signed in March 2015.

*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a starting pitcher.
**Prorated version of 2016 Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Young.

***

Jordan Zimmermann (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Zimmermann:

  • Has averaged 205 IP and 4.0 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 3.9 WAR per 200 IP* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 3.0 WAR in 201.2 IP in 2015.
  • Is projected to record 3.3 WAR per 200 IP**.
  • Is entering his age-30 season.
  • Made $16.5M in 2015, as part of deal signed in January 2014.

*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a starting pitcher.
**Prorated version of 2016 Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Zimmermann.





 

Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

7 Comments
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Cory Settoon
10 years ago

Shark and Zimm are both difficult to project. Shark might go a 1 year route. Not sure who to compare Zimmermann to.

0
TKDC
10 years ago
Reply to  Cory Settoon

I think I just went too low, because I was thinking “good number 2 pitcher” and I remembered Homer Bailey, who got over $100 million without even being a free agent. I could see $125-135 million over 6-7 years, or a little less over 5.

0
TKDC
10 years ago
Reply to  TKDC

And obviously I’m talking about when it was signed. Of course Bailey immediately turned into a pumpkin.

0
glekj
10 years ago
Reply to  TKDC

Homey Bailey always was a pumpkin. The Reds just signed him to a very bad contract is all.

0
Greg
10 years ago
Reply to  TKDC

TKDC, I agree with that assessment for Zimm’s market.

glekj, that’s not true before his elbow injuries.

0