Contract Crowdsourcing 2016-17: Day 1 of 10
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2016-17 free-agent market.
Below are links to ballots for five of this year’s free agents, including some catchers, a first baseman, and a second baseman.
Wilson Ramos (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Ramos:
- Has averaged 463 PA and 1.8 WAR over last three seasons.
- Has averaged 1.8 WAR per 450 PA* over last three seasons.
- Recorded a 3.5 WAR in 523 PA in 2016.
- Is projected to record 2.3 WAR per 450 PA**.
- Is entering his age-29 season.
- Made $5.4M in 2016 after avoiding arbitration in January.
*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting catcher.
**Prorated version of final updated 2016 depth-chart projections available here.
Click here to estimate years and dollars for Ramos.
Kurt Suzuki (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Suzuki:
- Has averaged 452 PA and 0.8 WAR over last three seasons.
- Has averaged 0.8 WAR per 450 PA* over last three seasons.
- Recorded a 0.6 WAR in 373 PA in 2016.
- Is projected to record 0.9 WAR per 450 PA**.
- Is entering his age-33 season.
- Made $6.0M in 2016, as part of deal signed in July 2014.
*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting catcher.
**Prorated version of final updated 2016 depth-chart projections available here.
Click here to estimate years and dollars for Suzuki.
Matt Wieters (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Wieters:
- Has averaged 286 PA and 1.2 WAR over last three seasons.
- Has averaged 1.9 WAR per 450 PA* over last three seasons.
- Recorded a 1.7 WAR in 464 PA in 2016.
- Is projected to record 1.9 WAR per 450 PA**.
- Is entering his age-31 season.
- Made $15.8M in 2016, from qualifying offer accepted in November 2015.
*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting catcher.
**Prorated version of final updated 2016 depth-chart projections available here.
Click here to estimate years and dollars for Wieters.
Mike Napoli (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Napoli:
- Has averaged 538 PA and 1.4 WAR over last three seasons.
- Has averaged 1.6 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
- Recorded a 1.1 WAR in 645 PA in 2016.
- Is projected to record 1.3 WAR per 600 PA**.
- Is entering his age-35 season.
- Made $7.0M in 2016, as part of deal signed in January.
*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting player.
**Prorated version of final updated 2016 depth-chart projections available here.
Click here to estimate years and dollars for Napoli.
Chase Utley (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Utley:
- Has averaged 551 PA and 2.3 WAR over last three seasons.
- Has averaged 2.5 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
- Recorded a 2.1 WAR in 565 PA in 2016.
- Is projected to record 1.6 WAR per 600 PA**.
- Is entering his age-38 season.
- Made $7.0M in 2016, as part of deal signed in December 2015.
*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting player.
**Prorated version of final updated 2016 depth-chart projections available here.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
It’s pretty much impossible to judge what Ramos will get. I doubt he signs before more is known about his injury.
Yeah. This seems like a short contract, rebuild the value. I see someone like the Rays, in desperate need of a catcher, to make a fairly significant 1 year + 1 option year deal. Torn ACL, so likely only half a season next year. 24 mil over 2 years was my guess. 8 mil 2017, team option for 16 mil for 2018. Just a lot of risk for both parties.
While it’s unlikely that there will be anyone reading this article who isn’t aware that Ramos is currently out with an injury, this definitely seems like something that should be included in the “relevant information regarding Ramos” section.
But then, this is a Cistulli article.
I don’t know if it’s likely only half a season he misses. This is a catcher, very demanding so it’s not something you rush.
I have this feeling that someone’s going to be desperate enough at the C position to give him market value for 3 years – something on the order of 3/$50-55M. Nobody’s going to give him the 5-6 year, 9 figure deal he may have gotten sans injury, but it only takes one team to give a guy way more money than you expect – look at the Ian Kennedy deal from last year!