Contract Crowdsourcing 2024-25: Ballot 3 of 10
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2024-25 free agent market.
In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor league contract, or won’t receive one at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2025 Steamer600 projections.
Below are ballots for 10 of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of position players, including a number of first basemen and designated hitters.
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
Tell me your Jurickson Profar contract guesses. He’s never done anything like this before and is coming off a $1M deal. But he put up over 4 wins last year.
I gave him the Lourdes Gurriel / Mitch Haniger – style 3 years, $45M. But I wouldn’t be surprised if that estimate is 50% too high or 50% too low.
I made the exact same estimate.
Almost exactly the same: 3/48
Same.
I went much higher – 4/$90m
I think the pedigree will convince a few suitors that he’s at least somewhat the player we just saw in 2024. He was also good in 2022 before being awful in 2023.
He’s gotta have huge error bars in his future projections. He’s a perfect guy for a deep pockets team. One that could easily absorb his salary if he turns into a pumpkin.
Seems like $70M is the tops anyone could rationally give him, but upon writing the word “rationally” I imagine that the Angels could go to $90M for the reasons you describe. They could put Taylor Ward in one corner and Profar in the other.
I think this is what I put for all of the corner outfielders in the mid-range:
Santander: 3/$72M (teams are going to go nuts for a switch-hitter who hit 44 homers. I’m thinking whoever loses out on Soto between the Mets and Yankees, plus also the Blue Jays. Maybe also the Tigers, Mariners, and Giants. The Pirates should but they won’t)
Hernandez: 3/$66M (will be less if the Dodgers aren’t in the running. But I think if they are, this is what they will bring him back for. Think a lot of teams are wary of his strikeouts but he had a great year offensively)
Profar, O’Neill: 3/$45M (I think teams are going to be wary based on Profar’s past performance and O’Neill’s injuries)
I think Detroit spends on the IF, not on Santander. They have Meadows, Greene, Meadows, Perez, Vierling all capable of playing out there.
Could see them on Walker..or a 3B…or a SS. NEED to shore up 1-2 of those spots.
I went 3/39. But it only takes one team throwing around crazy money to blow that out of the water (and probably regret it for 75% of the contract length)