Cubs Land Alex Bregman on Five-Year Deal
It was a big night in Chicago. On Saturday, about an hour before Caleb Williams and the Bears defeated the Packers in the Wild Card round, erasing an 18-point deficit with a fourth-quarter comeback so furious that it earned the rare non-baseball wheeee from Sarah Langs, the Cubs elicited a different kind of dopamine rush. As Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported, Alex Bregman has agreed to a five-year, $175 million contract to play in Wrigley Field. A year after Bregman signed a high-value, prove-it pact with the Red Sox, he’s finally gotten the long-term deal he sought, while the Cubs got a premier player to replace free agent Kyle Tucker. The deal contains no opt-outs and a full no trade clause. It’s the third-largest in franchise history, though on Sunday morning, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that it contains $70 million in deferred money, dropping the average annual value to just over $30 million. Bregman should remain in Wrigley through his age-36 season. It is a huge move, and the likely pièce de résistance for one of the most aggressive offseasons in recent memory for the Cubs.
Just in case you need a refresher on his résumé, Bregman ranked second on our Top 50 Free Agents list this winter, and for good reason. He’s a two-time World Series champion and three-time All-Star who owns a Gold Glove, a Silver Slugger, an All-Star Game MVP, and two top-five AL MVP finishes. Since his first full season in 2017, he’s accrued 41.8 WAR, eighth most among all position players. Aside from a partial rookie year and the truncated 2020 campaign, he’s finished below 3.0 WAR just once, in an injury-shortened 2021 season. (Any career recap also has to include at least some mention of Bregman’s role in Houston’s sign-stealing scheme in 2017 and 2018. Bregman would express regret about the scandal, but his initial deflections – “the commissioner made his report, the Astros made their decision, no further comment on it” – rankled fans, and his apologies fell flat with many outside of Houston.)
Bregman is no longer the MVP candidate he was in 2018 and 2019, when he ran a combined 162 wRC+ and put up 16.2 WAR, but he’s been extraordinarily consistent ever since. Not only has he averaged a 124 wRC+ over the past six seasons, he’s kept within 13 points of that mark every single year and he’s combined that offensive excellence with great defense at third. He earned MVP votes as recently as 2023, and he was on pace to pick up some more in 2025 until a quad strain and a late-August slump changed the trajectory of his season; he still managed a .273/.360/.462 line with 18 home runs, a 125 wRC+, and 3.5 WAR in 114 games.
This is a happy ending to a long, twisty story for both Bregman and his agent, Scott Boras. Bregman ranked third on last offseason’s Top 50 Free Agents list. After nine years with the Astros (including a five-year, $100 million extension in 2019), the then 30-year-old Bregman wanted a long-term contract. Despite interest from several teams, he didn’t find the deal he was looking for, though he did find plenty of dollars. Hampered by a qualifying offer, Bregman signed with Boston during spring training for three years and $120 million, with an opt out after each season (and some deferred money). According to reports, the Tigers had offered six years and $171.5 million with an opt-out after the 2026 season, while the Cubs offered four years and $120 million with opt-outs in both 2026 and 2027. Bregman bet on himself with the shorter, high-AAV deal, and he’s now cashing in. When you combine the two contracts, he ended up getting $215 million over six years, which is, according to sources, lots of money. Bregman is just the latest Boras client to successfully execute the trampoline two-step, joining Pete Alonso, Blake Snell, and Matt Chapman. Cody Bellinger is sure to feel heartened.
For the Red Sox, on the other hand, it’s looking more and more like it’s Bo Bichette or bust. Even after landing Willson Contreras, without Bregman or Rafael Devers, our depth charts have them ranked 15th or worse at every infield position (including catcher), and 20th or worse at all but first base.
As for the Cubs, they’re really doing the damn thing. At 92-70, the team had the sixth-best record in baseball in 2025, and their Pythagorean win-loss record indicated that they deserved to be even better. They made the playoffs for the first time since 2020, and they’ve certainly got enough talent around the diamond to merit going all-in. They completely overhauled their bullpen this winter, and they’ve now made a major roster improvement for the second time in four days, the first being their trade for right-hander Edward Cabrera.
With Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ, and Seiya Suzuki all due to enter free agency after the 2026 season, Bregman provides some much needed stability to Chicago’s position player group. He will slot in next to shortstop Dansby Swanson, the first overall pick in the 2015 draft (and the reason Bregman wears no. 2 on his uniform). Even though he’ll turn 32 in March, the Cubs are getting one of the best third baseman in the game right now. Over the past four seasons, Bregman has put up a combined 17.5 WAR, which ranks 18th among position players. In that timeframe, he owns three of the top 20 seasons at the position. The only other player who can say the same is José Ramírez. (Bregman’s injury shortened 2025 season also comes in at 28th.)
Bregman represents an upgrade over Matt Shaw, who will presumably shift into a utility role or find himself on the trading block. Chicago’s 0.0 WAR at third base in 2025 ranked 27th and made it their worst spot on the diamond, though that wasn’t really the fault of Shaw, who put up 1.2 WAR at third (and 1.5 overall); he was just canceled out by the negative value accrued by all five of the other players to spend time at the position. His remaining team control could make him an appealing trade target, though rumors abound that Shaw could shift to second and Hoerner could end up traded. Hoerner is due $12 million in 2026, the last year of his contract. Coming off a career-best 4.8-win season, his value has never been higher.
How the Cubs resolve their infield logjam – and which other positions they choose to bolster – will be interesting to watch. Even with Cabrera and the eventual return of Justin Steele, our depth charts have the Cubs’ starting pitching projected for just 11.2 WAR, which ranks just 19th even though it would be an improvement of nearly a full win over the 10.3 mark they put up in 2025. If they’re really going for it, the obvious next step would be to add an impact starter. Meanwhile, right field was and remains the biggest hole on the roster, but it seems unlikely that the Cubs will hand out another huge deal to fill it with the likes of Bellinger or Tucker. At North Side Baseball, Matthew Trueblood wrote that after landing Cabrera earlier in the week, ownership gave president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer permission to cross into luxury tax territory. Signing Bregman puts them right on the threshold, though it’s still possible that they’ll duck under it, especially if they trade an infielder.
If you’re a Cubs fan and you want to stop reading here, feel free to do just that. The rest of the article will be devoted to the possible downsides of the deal, and you are absolutely entitled take a couple days to enjoy watching your team make a serious bid at World Series contention without worrying about park effects and what might happen in 2030.
OK, you’ve been warned. Any long-term deal represents a risk, and Bregman will be 36 at the end of this one. He’s likely got some wear on his tires; since his debut in 2016, his 1,225 games played is tied for 23rd most in baseball, and he ranks 15th in defensive innings played. He’s also coming off an injury-shortened season where he fell off pretty hard in the second half. Then there’s his offensive profile.
Bregman has never possessed top-shelf bat speed or wowed with his exit velocities. He’s never once hit a ball 110 mph, a feat achieved by 308 different major leaguers in the 2025 season alone. Instead, he’s succeeded through a combination of elite plate discipline, elite contact skills, and a preternatural ability to pull the ball in the air in order to maximize his damage. The good news is that plate discipline tends to age well, but another way to describe Bregman’s lift-and-pull tendencies would be to say that his swing is already optimized. He’s already got something resembling the aging slugger swing that Joshua Rodrigues described so aptly last week over at Baseball Prospectus. He’s not starting out with much margin for error, so things could get ugly when his bat speed or his contact skills start to go. And Bregman is already slow and a below-average baserunner. He already has a weak arm. When the first-step quickness goes, the defense could crater pretty quickly too.
The more immediate concern is that Wrigley Field is not particularly conducive to Bregman’s offensive approach. Bregman has spent his entire career in Houston and Boston, playing in parks pretty much designed for someone with his exact swing. The shallow Crawford Boxes and the even shallower Green Monster made him look like a god. Over the course of the Statcast era, 174 players have hit at least 100 home runs. Bregman’s average home run distance of 384 feet ranks 173rd. We’re about to find out for the first time in his 10-year career what it looks like when, friendly or not, the confines aren’t tailor-made for his swing.
According to Statcast’s park factors, Wrigley Field ranks right in the middle of the pack in terms of home runs for right-handed hitters and dead last for doubles. More importantly for Bregman, the left field corner has a deep cutout; Cubs fans remember well the 85 wRC+ and .084 ISO that lifter-puller Isaac Paredes ran during his short stint with the team at the end of the 2024 season. Paredes hit just one ball out at Wrigley, to go with several more that looked like trouble for a moment before landing harmlessly in the left fielder’s glove.
So the downside is there and it’s scary. Even taking the deferrals into account, Bregman will tie up a significant proportion of Chicago’s payroll through the beginning of the next decade. Still, this is probably the wrong time for doomsaying. Over the course of his career, Bregman actually has a few more home runs on the road than at home. Should he figure out how to succeed in Wrigley, should he age gracefully, he’s got a chance of ending up in Cooperstown. It would be at least a little bit foolish to count out a player who possesses elite skills and has a succeeded at the highest level for as long as Bregman has. It’s encouraging for the Cubs to be on the rise, and it’s even more encouraging to see them acting like it.
Davy Andrews is a Brooklyn-based musician and a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Bluesky @davyandrewsdavy.bsky.social.
I was shocked and a bit crestfallen by this news. Seemed like the Red Sox were the best mutual fit. It will be compelling to see what path Breslow takes from here. I doubt ownership will greenlight being the top bidder for Bichette, so perhaps Suarez will be The Guy.
The Sox won-loss % was only slightly better in games Bregman played than in games he didn’t. Maybe the Sox will be alright without him, but this latest offseason whiff genuinely feels like a missed opportunity to lock down the hot corner in a meaningfully competitive way. It also paints the Devers trade quite negatively for Breslow. Devers is being paid a reasonable AAV long term, is a bonafide Yankee-destroyer, and was displaced to accommodate the org’s shift to Bregman. Breslow will need to accomplish something incredible to make up for that
I don’t blame the Red Sox at all for not wanting to commit this crazy amount of money to Bregman. I’m looking at the ZiPS projections from the Red Sox entry, and he’s projected for only 3.1 WAR over 568 PAs with a 111 OPS+. And the 3-year OPS+ is projected at 107. He’s probably going to age gracefully, but it’s also very likely downhill from here.
It is also true that without him the Red Sox have a huge hole in the infield (which will be two the moment either Story or Mayer get hurt). And that this team is primed to win now. And that whatever backup plan they have for filling that hole in their infield, it’s going to be a way worse fit than Bregman. I get it, but it’s going to be super hard to find someone to play decent infield defense who is going to give them anything like what Bregman did at the plate.
I don’t blame the Sox either for not going to where the Cubs did, as it is highly unlikely Bregman provides enough value for the contract to not be annually underwater within a couple of years. However, not securing him is an outright failure in executing whatever Breslow’s overall plan was in trading Devers.
The Sox may still be in the wildcard mix regardless, as they improved rotation depth and it’s possible the young core position player group improves with experience. But for 2026 they feel worse without a substantial addition to offset the loss of Bregman. Contreras alone doesn’t cut it.
And as-is, the Red Sox roster feels oddly constructed with Spring Training is quickly approaching. An abundance of lefty hitters, four starting outfielders and two DHs while there is an unresolved infield situation at 2B and 3B feels like there must be more moves pending for the 2026 Red Sox assembly to be somewhat complete. I’m expecting not just a free agent signing (their first of the offseason), but also a major trade or two. Losing Bregman will rattle the front office into action, perhaps even brashly
Maybe. I think the Red Sox probably sign Eugenio Suarez to play third base now. He would be a good fit for them, aside from the declining defense (I think they have made clear they do not care about infield defense).
Hard to see them in on Bichette unless he is willing to take a pillow deal, and if Bichette is going for a pillow deal he’ll play in a stadium that rewards his power more like Toronto or Philadelphia.
I wouldn’t worry about DH. Casas has to get sent down to the minors. With how he played last year before the injury he has no trade value, and he could probably work things out in the minors for a bit.
Maybe they trade for Brendan Donovan and / or Freddy Peralta in addition to that. They certainly have the firepower. Between Payton Tolle and Kristian Campbell they have a couple of very talented players who are surplus. And I’m not saying they should do this, because I wouldn’t, but they also have Connelly Early and Jarren Duran if they need to close a deal.
I’m curious why you say they don’t care about infield defense. They signed a 3B and moved Devers to DH last season. This year, they dealt for a Contreras to play 1B, an improvement on defense over Casas and company (not that this was their top reason for trade, but it certainly points toward valuing infield defense).
Maybe they have changed their mind then, but as the economists say there is a revealed preference for not caring about infield defense.
Here is their FRV over the last two years at 2B and SS for players with a minimum of 300 innings at that position.
2B:
David Hamilton: +3
Romy Gonzalez: -3
Enmanuel Valdez: -7
Kristian Campbell: -10
(this also doesn’t include Vaughn Grissom, who they traded for but hit badly enough that his -2 in about 200 innings didn’t make it)
SS:
Cedanne Rafaela: -5
David Hamilton: -5
Trevor Story: -7
As you mention, they did replace Devers with Bregman last year, although that was at least partly ownership driven. So I have no idea what they’re thinking here.
is that so
I have an uneasy feeling about this. He’s old and not swing suited for Wrigley. I’d rather have given Tucker whatever it took
As a Cubs fan living in Texas the last 9 years I’m excited as can be. The Cubs are gonna make some deep playoff runs now!
It doesn’t matter that the Cubs vastly overpaid for a 32 year old third baseman who is probably going to lose half a win on average off of his WAR from here every year for the next five years and is a bad fit for their stadium.
At least, it doesn’t matter as long as the Cubs ownership continues their current practice of not letting a bad contract hamstring the front office when they need to make better additions that plug holes for them.
It’s a good thing that there’s never been a single case in the recent history of the Cubs front office signing a position player to a rich contract and then ownership deciding that the money taps are turned off and they can’t get players to get them over the top.
Nope, no worries at all. Not for the fourth-richest team in baseball who has only gone over the luxury tax three times since they won the world series a decade ago in 2016, and where the only time since 2020 (in 2024) looks like an accident.
“Bregman has spent his entire career in Houston and Boston, playing in parks pretty much designed for someone with his exact swing”
Wouldn’t this show up clearly in his home/road splits then? He hit much better on the road last year, and slightly better on the road for his career.
It depends on where those road games are being played.
You’d need to go like for like on places with similar OF dimensions – YS3 and Tropicana count equally as “away” games.
Does it necessarily have to show up in home/road splits? He doesn’t hit the ball very hard or very far. He has probably had the power for any home park up until this point, but he’s been on a razor’s edge. It reminds me a lot of Arenado: he never had great power, he just hit everything to the pull side. But he still hit well in Busch for a few years, while he still had enough power to reach the left field fence. But when it goes away, it vanishes with these types of guys.
I think the answer is that we just don’t know.
Bregman’s batted ball profile as it stands right now plays in most MLB stadiums. It’s better in a place with a short left field even compared to other right hand hitters but it’s not a massive difference.
I think the questions are more about whether his batted ball profile will play in Wrigley specifically as well as how it will change in his age 33, 34, 35 seasons.
The concern is that Wrigley has one of the longest left field walls, 355 down the left field line, but if I’m not mistaken I don’t think left-center much farther, if at all. It also depends on the weather, because Wrigley plays differently depending on season and wind. It’s not as extreme as Paredes’, so I wouldn’t necessarily think that just because Paredes posted something like a negative wRC+ at Wrigley Bregman would also be a bad hitter there. But it’s certainly not a good place for him to hit, especially if he loses any power.
I understand that Tucker is more expensive, and it isn’t 1-for-1, essentially choosing Bregman over him makes zero sense.
One wonders if there was frustration around Tucker’s injury and how it was dealt with, on either or both sides.
Not just more expensive, but $225m more expensive and the Cubs will get a draft pick for Tucker.
You still see Tucker getting $400 million?
It does seem like Tucker’s market is more tepid than expected. Are the Met’s just waiting for his asking price to fall? The Dodgers, Yankees, and Blue Jays all have decent outfield options. They seem to be watching and hoping a big contract offer never materializes, but if he gets a $300M offer, I think he has to take it over a 1-year deal.
If the Mets aren’t serious, I am starting to think Tucker could end up with a surprise team – the White Sox juicing their rebuild, or the Marlins trying to raise their payroll and compete in 2026, or something else totally strange like that.
Eh, when Bo Bichette/Cody Bellinger sign elsewhere, Cashman will windmill slam an overpay for Tucker.
If Bichette and Bellinger sign first, I think it will mean that Tucker’s market has collapsed, and big market/contending teams will be expecting to sign him to a short term/high AAV deal.
Enter mystery team with a long-term offer.
Tucker’s market is not gonna collapse. C’mon.
Reinsdorf is still alive no chance they sign Tucker
I just want to pat myself on the back for predicting the crap out of Tucker’s FA and years ago. The league knew once Soto was done they were done with the pre-pandemic FA landscape and had a Future in which no one is Actually good…been salivating for years….Look at the loaded resumes of Tucker and Bichette, note their FA ages, and do it all with an understanding Future players will struggle to get the opp to build a resume like that considered light…What a world we, cowards and maybe worse, are building brick by brick every day without a second thought
I’ve had three concussions and your posts make my head hurt more than any of them.
Alex Bregman had 118 hits and 62 RBI in 433 at bats last year
Romy Gonzalez had 96 hits and 53 RBI in 315 at bats last year
Bregman had a 125 wrc+ and a .334 xwoba
Romy had a 124 wrc+ and a .346 xwoba
Bregman had a 53rd percentile avg EV and a 54th percentile hard hit rate
Romy had a a 95th percentile avg EV and a 99th percentile hard hit rate
If I was the Sox I would rather have Romy play full time making $1.6m next year than give Bregman 5/175. Part of this is because I think Romy Gonzalez has like a 40% chance to be the next Justin Turner/max muncy/brent Booker type random breakout, but also the stats just show that there really isn’t much of a drop off offensively at all
Romy’s hitting stats were boosted a fair bit by being platooned. He had more PAs against lefties than Bregman did despite having 150 fewer PAs total. Romy had a 978 OPS against left, .718 against right. Bregman was over .800 against both.
.718 against right is pretty good! Especially with a .286 batting average – the ops wasn’t simply the product of a comple home runs. He was having good at bats against righties and keeping the line moving. He was far from a mere platoon bat.
Romy’s 198 PA against righties last year were more than he’d ever had in a single season before. And his average, ops, and wrc+ were all far and away career bests too.
I think his performance against righties last year (a) was good, (b) was indicative of major improvement, and (c) portends even more future improvement
I hear you and although I agree that Romy G’s hitting is underrated, Bregman is extremely consistent and has demonstrated excellence over a much larger sample. Also Romy has way worse whiff, chase and strikeout rates than Bregman, and is also below average at 3B with the glove, having negative success rate added at 3B in each of the past 2 years
All true. But it all depends on what they do with the $30M+ in savings vs the cap over the next 5 years
Well, $12M/yr is going to Jordan Hicks, and $18M/yr is going to Contreras. The red sox have made themselves a worse team in 2025, 2026, and 2027 in exchange for financial flexibility in 2028-2033.
Oh I think Mayer plays 3b, where he looked excellent last year, and Romy plays 2b, where I don’t think he graded well but looked to my eye to drastically improve over the course of the year
If his bat’s real and sticks in the .350 wOBA range you could live with the 40 defense at second (as the numbers suggest in a limited sample), but it hasn’t been proven in a full season of AB’s and it’s hard to trust it until that happens. If one of the glove or bat is better than the projections he’s an average player, but there’s also a decent chance neither are and Rafaela ends up back in the infield.
If you’re the Sox, you’re looking at serious risks at every infield position (can Story stay healthy/can Mayer hit) and possibly depending on Nate Eaton or a Kristian Campbell resurgence to make it work. Just not a risk that a team with Boston’s resources should be running.
Don’t forget the “Can Mayer stay healthy” part.
And can Romy G stay healthy? His injury history is as long as Mayer’s and Story’s.
this makes me unduly horny
Aren’t goats always like that
Don’t see the big hole that had to be filled. What was wrong with waiting for Shaw to mature at the league min?
The assumption that he’s going to mature?
Probably the lost time in between also having precious, maybe even more, $$ value
I really think everyone caught up in payroll fails to understand how cheap this all is, how much talent is out there to cushion whatever spooky Future imagined, that our gazillionaire creators aren’t printing these (falling) numbers bc they expect to lose money on the deal
In reading other sites (KLaw for one), there seems to be a lot of TDS hate towards Shaw, for what it’s worth. Not sure if any competent front office should take that into consideration.
Only in as much as Shaw left the team for a ridiculous reason in mid-playoff push.
His personal friend’s funeral is not a “ridiculous reason”
I’m not sure what sillier between calling someone you’ve met once or twice a “personal friend” or calling that spectacle a “funeral.”
Anyway, Shaw seems to have escaped any consequences for actually hurting his team with his political demonstration, which makes him luckier than some others who demonstrated without bailing on their teams and lost their careers, never mind your thoughts on the substance of their messages.
Probably not, though there are some areas where his outspoken views probably would cause issues.
Thinking SF, LA, NY, Boston, Seattle.
Anecdotally, I call say Shaw is considered a pariah among just about every Cubs fan I know here on the North Side. I think most people understand baseball players lean conservative and Wrigleyville and the surrounding neighborhoods don’t. But actually missing a game during a playoff push seems to have struck a nerve.
[never mind, people made that point below]
Hoerner is in the last year of his current deal. Given how bad the Cubs bench was last year, keep Shaw as super utility IF this year and see what happens with Hoerner re. Next contract with the new CBA
Bwahahahaha Matt Shaw. Even the Ricketts think you suck
130 wRC+ in 2nd half after his AAA stint for a guy in his age 23 season. Seems to be an unnecessary signing to me but we”ll see what the Cubs do from here.
My comment was not primarily directed at Matt Shaw as a baseball player
I figured. Perhaps the Cubs should consider trading Shaw to a team with a more tolerant fan base that allows for different viewpoints and lifestyles.
Matt Shaw would hate that.
LOL…very clever
Truly a turning point for the Cubs offseason
After that strong 2025 2nd half, wouldn’t be surprised if Shaw out performs Bregman over the life of this deal even with a reduced role this year. I hope Shaw stays and capably fills the back up infield role Brujan/Berti/Lopez/etc. couldn’t last year and his good play enables more regular rest and health for Nico, Swanson and Bregman and provides overall IF insurance/depth. The signing also hopefully removes the front office need for wasting ABs on washed up 1B types with Bregman or Shaw playing 1B against LHs.
Cubs already signed “washed up” Tyler Austin to fill in RH 1B.
Ah, we have TDS on this site too. There’s actual bad people in sports. Ray Lewis killed a guy. IDK. I guess I just don’t understand holding so much hate in your heart.
I am not necessarily disagreeing that there are many worse people in sports, and that it shouldn’t be a major consideration.
But: “I just don’t understand holding so much hate in your heart” is a super weird thing to say in response to someone talking about how they don’t like Matt Shaw.
Ray Lewis did NOT kill a guy.
Last year Bregman had a better ISO away and 6 HR at home vs 12 on the road. The numbers were a bit more skewed towards favoring Houston in 2024 but not ridiculously so. So not really accurate to say his power is merely a product of his home confines. That 173/174 ranking is a bit startling, but there is some selection bias in hitters with >100 homers so I’m not sure what’s meaningful about it. I don’t like the guy as a player, but I don’t think he represents any greater risk of falling off early than other players in his cohort.
He had a 1.500 OPS in Tampa’s little league stadium last year.
So he’ll enjoy GAB
His OPS is actually better on the road than home for his career, .852 vs .838.
I’m excited to see what Shaw does going forward. He did just enough of everything to see a quality player in the making. Funny enough, he would be a great fit for Boston. Fringe power that would play up and the defensive ability to fill in around any infield position.
Hoerner would also be a great fit for Boston.
But what would really punctuate how ridiculous this deal was for the Cubs is signing Bregman to a deal of this size only to trade a guy who is three years younger, would have signed a far cheaper extension, and who was more valuable last year.
So I don’t see it.
Maybe the Red Sox could swap Kristian Campbell for Matt Shaw. Campbell’s got way more offensive upside but he is definitely not an infielder and Shaw should be okay at second base. Brendan Donovan would be a better fit for the Red Sox as a multi-positional guy who hits well enough to start everywhere but the Red Sox seem opposed to making their team more left-handed.
I’ll never understand why teams don’t swap prospects more often.
Because if it goes wrong you look really bad.
This goes for other trades too. Nobody wants to be in a situation where they trade away Fernando Tatis Jr for a guy on his way out. The actual chance of getting fired for a such a trade is low but MLB front office executives *hate* being embarrassed like that. Looking smart in the eyes of their peers is very important to them.
Also, everyone loves their own prospects more than everyone else’s…and they all know that about themselves…so they get suspicious when another GM offers a prospect for prospect deal.
That’s why the Gallen/Chisholm deal was so fascinating, and they both turned into good players (for at least some amount of time, anyway).
Definitely wasn’t expecting the position player to become undone by injuries while the pitcher didn’t miss much time.
Also Gallen was definitely better for their new teams but now Chisholm is probably going to be better than Gallen.
The answer is always economics. Acknowledging an Unproven as desirable? In today’s analytics environment? Have you gone mad? What a can o’ worms that has the potential to be…Maybe they don’t seem against older prospects with no earning potential like a Michael Busch
“When you combine the two contracts, he ended up getting $215 million over six years”
This is deceptive if not outright wrong and carrying water for Scott Boras, though I’m sure not your intent.
With the deferrals, the money isn’t really $215M and it isn’t paid over just six years. I.e., 6/$215M if very different from what Bregman actually got (or will get).
It’s only as deceptive as calling the current deal 5yr/175 so idk what you’re trying to get at
some people really just want to believe that scott boras is not good at his job and overplayed his hand here, despite all evidence to the contrary
Tbf Announcing less money as more money is hardly carrying water for Boras. Fair to speculate maybe Boras benefits from the framing and rhetoric in 2026, but the deals are shrinking and the industry, league, along with our owners benefit much more from appearing to spend more than they are. Idk if even Boras but the league gets way more benefit from the standard issue automaton thinking Yamamoto’s 12/325 in 2024 is bigger than Cole’s 9/324 in 2019 than some agent. Agents do suck or whatever another fake job settlers invented for their baby boys and ‘Mericans are terrified of even a thought against those chosen gazillionaires who give them all this freedom and bravery and life itself. Still literally one party has used the spectacle of prow sperts as a way to secure public funds, lands, influence and the other is a character invented for a soap opera, has some money but nowhere near enough to shift the industry let alone the media and society lol, and could be replaced overnight without industry skipping a beat nor the framing and rhetoric changing much
Btw feels worth noting the soap opera is largely consumed by 50+ men in the suburbs who looooooooooove referring to this thing they watch religiously and talk abt constantly with the most passion as “just a kids game”
Gooooood move…Other than not posting monster EVs and being older and more expensive than a 24 YO, even so he did well avg 90.1 in 2025, Bregman’s pretty much the ideal two way FA down to conditioning, approach, experience, etc. Flashing – and often at the same time – contact, patience, approach, power, and excellent defense. The Cubs also could use some RHH with questions abt Shaw’s approach, Suzuki’s upcoming FA, Hoerner’s too…
I’ll be trying to speak Shaw+ to the Mariners for Gilbert and Brash into existence now
Gilbert and Brash for Shaw+? That’s some serious wishful thinking.
Idk in today’s payroll oriented landscape a cheap, controlled plug and play who was also Top 100 higher even is like the peak of big brain
Cole Young and Colt Emerson are similar prospects to Shaw. They need a proven infielder for next year, not a prospect.
They’ve also been adamant about not trading from the major league roster.
The only thing anyone in a sperts FO, filled with baby boys who have never and will never work a day in their lives collaborating with families of predatory sociopaths and psychopaths who share that in common, is adamant abt is all work can be done for less money by younger beasts of burden and anything that moves can be data mined for profit before dismissal. Idk why being similar to two Top prospects would be a ding, but do know that Proven players are also Aging depreciating capital asset pieces who take up the most precious resource in the universe: money.
Idk why everyone’s so like befuddled by this line of thinking as if its outside the logic and rhetoric hammered home 24/7/365. Gilbert is Aging, the salary is rising, control is running out, payroll is High, and the team is relatively loaded with cheap SP talent. How many more ingredients are required for even the thought? Its entirely consistent with the logic fans are conditioned to take on as their own. What do we need like a Disney news story? Give it a minute, its not as if that won’t come
I don’t get this move. As a rival NL Central fan, this is a clear downgrade going from 2025 to 2026. Over the next 5 years, it seems likely at this point that Shaw would outperform Bregman given the difference in age, defense, Bregman’s declining bat/injuries, and some probability of Shaw’s bat developing. Shaw’s DRS is great/OAA is not, but either way, he’s likely the better defender. Suzuki is a good hitter/below average defender. Seems like he should be DHing. This hurts the Cubs’ defense in 2 spots. I don’t see Bregman’s bat as good as Tucker. Then the other possible piece, with Hoerner is their ~best player, trading him away would be good news for other NL Central clubs. I don’t understand that one.
The # of sperts fans who seem to think Matt Shaw will just outpace Bregman bc age and salary is why the stats revolution was always basically a CIA opp (and/or the internet is dead, populated by bots parroting corporate nonspeak and nonsense). How do we go 20+ years of indoctrination and not even have literacy unless the point was never to be literate, critical, analytical, data oriented etc?
He’s on to us, guys. Shut down operation StatBoy!
The brain on sperts fandom/‘Merican sycophancy: the only conspiracy worth considering is the aging players/workers aka depreciating asset capitals and their dang corrupt greedy union wants all the money!
If you don’t think it sucks for the players/workers too that the big money only goes to the handful of guys who manage to stay healthy and good until they hit the back half of the aging curve, I don’t know what to tell you. It is, in the broader picture, quite bad for labor as well as for management that the Bregmans of the world get overpaid to decline while the Shaws of the world work for the minimum.
“ If you don’t think it sucks for the players/workers too that the big money only goes to the handful of guys who manage to stay healthy and good until they hit the back half of the aging curve, I don’t know what to tell you”
Uuuuuuh Idk if you follow the logic of a standard issue but they, not I, are the ones who push this nonsense. As I’ve said a gazillion bajillion times in some way: a player moves from Unproven directly to Aging/Depreciating capital asset piece
“ It is, in the broader picture, quite bad for labor as well as for management that the Bregmans of the world get overpaid to decline while the Shaws of the world work for the minimum.”
Note your framing as Bregman *automatically* being Overpaidz – solely based on age – and how unserious, lazy that is as the system demands. This is brain rot that lowers Shaw’s earning potential and demands lower salaries. The entire system of wage labor, built around endless exploitation, is “quite bad for labor”
OK, glad we’ve established that “the entire system of wage labor” is the problem here and not, say, anything particular about a specific workplace or collective-bargaining agreement or its implied labor aristocracy. I apologize for contributing the unserious and lazy half of the discussion!
I was particular tho: Bregman being stamped automatic overpayz based on vibes ya know like it jist doesn’t sit or feel right in the gut soul belly ain’t it
Also note implied in your statement is Older (read: non-rookie contract) – in this case the ancient age of 32 lol – players are forced out regardless of ability so Matt Shaw can Develop uncritically coincidentally for much cheaper. Bregman’s straight up a better and more certain hitter who doesn’t give up anything in other aspects of the game. If anything the age thing is most reflected by him being a straight 3B nowadays rather than 3B/SS/2B versatility at younger ages
Btw not my cleanest
depreciating asset capital pieces*
are you okay?
He’s gotta lay off the peyote
Peyote? All your posts and the username read either like obvious bot or at best like a “how do you do, fellow kids?”
Or maybe he needs more?
More peyote for some; miniature American flags for others!
Bruh, how many decades is this going to be like a standard “ha, got ya(!)” internet response?
Until the CIA updates my corporate nonspeak programming.
There’s something for a disney adult to be defiant abt and proud of being dug into lol
Also I did laugh at the actual response as funny. Maybe that’s the surest sign that I’ll get offline
These two players (Shaw, Bregman) are a pretty solid example. Generally over the past just < 25 years its been found young-er players hit the ball and throw harder, correct? Considering just that and not their ages, who is the younger: Bregman at 90.1 and 109.6 or Shaw at 85 and 109.2? Again generally as they all commit the aging crime its generally considered a good sign of health to maintain or gain velo, right? Bregman set career highs for avg and max EVs last year.
Throw in after hitting the ball much harder that Bregman is an even better contact hitter, chases much less often, walks more or at least as much, players similar if not better defense, is better at getting the ball in the air (44% FBs to 40-41%, is better at pulling those flyballs (47% to 40% iirc)
2025 Bregman seems to resemble 2020 and 2021 Bregman, so ~2-4 fWAR, but also he hits the ball harder than both and without chasing or whiffing way more often….Bodes well! I’m not saying quite Beltre to the Rangers but there’s some good juju here…Coincidentally Bregman posted a year (2021) with similar EVs to Shaw and was still better (2.1 fWAR to 1.5) soooo….Can even go back to the minors and college and not even looking Bregman’s comfortably…I don’t even think Shaw sucks on the field so much as an org like the Mariners (WINK WINK) would probably love a cheap, controlled RHH with 3B, SS, 2B capabilities to mix in with the LHH Crawford, Young, Emerson IF group
With the deferrals announced, I’m curious what the deferrals were in the reported 5/165 Red Sox deal. The Cubs deal works out to something like 5/153 so maybe the Red Sox offer would be equivalent to something like 5/142? That seems like a reasonable upper limit for Boston.
Of course, as reasonable as it is, they still need to fill 2B or 3B, and the options are dwindling.
The reporting appears to be that the Red Sox deferrals were over a longer term (apparently decades, plural), which would further dilute the “actual” value.
Not that BBRef Similiarity Scores are predictive, but I would be alarmed as a Cub fan that two of the top three most similar players are Anthony Rendon and Kris Bryant (the third is, hilariously enough, Rafael Devers).
This transaction required that I reply to my mom’s text question of, and I quote, “Are the Cubs anti-Jesus????”
I told her Jesus Christ can’t hit a curveball.
True, but I read that he once hit an epic tank off an eephus thrown by the Flying Spaghetti Monster
This is a fascinating deal, IMO. The Cubs didn’t have an obvious hole at third base, though Shaw certainly has some flaws, but they were in need of a quality hitter to deepen the lineup and must have learned that Tucker was going to be too expensive for them. With all of the free agents to be after the season, the amount of the contract shouldn’t hamstring the budget all that much.
But there are a couple intriguing parts of this. First, all I kept hearing about last year was Bregman’s leadership ability. There are certainly different leadership styles, but I never got the impression that Tucker was the leader the Cubs needed. To me, it’s the reason why a guy like Justin Turner hung on so long with the team: he can’t hit like he used to but he’s a valuable, respected clubhouse guy. So how much is leadership worth and how do you quantify it? I’m not nearly smart enough to answer that but I do think it was part of the consideration for signing Bregman.
Second, what will still happen with this roster? With so many players’ contracts ending at the end of the year, Shaw could have a permanent place at second or left field. Does Hoerner get moved to keep Shaw in the lineup? Do the Cubs re-sign Happ, Hoerner, or Suzuki to keep the band together? I’d be shocked if all three are back.
So, 2026 is all-in for the Cubs. I don’t know if this team is good enough to win the World Series but I think it’s the best compromise between keeping prospects / spending money / saving the Ricketts’ tax money. I’d still love Tucker to come back on a pillow contract but that’s much less likely after this signing. Overall, I’d say the Cubs have done a nice job of playing the free agent and trade markets to put forth the best product they can at reasonable costs.
“ So, 2026 is all-in for the Cubs.”
Brother I promise the only people on the entire plane who think in such simplistic terms are being clowned
I don’t follow. The Cubs have many impending free agents. Why wouldn’t they be going for it this year?
The better question is how does that make them uniquely all in?
I would say that the Cubs are feeling like they had to make a big move. From 2018 to the present they have finished *exactly* one spot behind the Brewers in the standings six times, finished three spots behind in another year, and won the division once (in 2020).
Desperate is probably too strong a word to describe how the Cubs are feeling before this move. But it’s probably a feeling like it.
I don’t know that the team itself is in any danger of losing their huge revenue stream from all this but they might, and even if nothing will change financially it’s kind of frustrating. It’s one thing to have a stretch where you don’t win the division much, it’s another to finish behind another team repeatedly. Padres fans are increasingly finding this out too.
Joe23 that’s the first suggestion I’ve read for trying Shaw in the outfield, but that’s where my mind went when the news broke on Saturday night. In 2027 the Cubs will have only PCA under contract as a proven starting-caliber outfielder. If 2026 is spent getting him reps at second and the corners that gives them a lot of flexibility going into the offseason.
Completely agree. I think Shaw’s pedigree and performance thus far makes it unlikely that he’s “just” a utility guy, but that might be the best option for 2026. I’ve come around on LF for him. I don’t think he has the arm for right. Happ made the move from 2B to LF and has performed well there; what’s stopping Shaw from doing the same?
It’s a terrible contract, but for the Cubs, it solves two problems at one time: (1) the investment is about $225 less than the one that they would have had to make with Tucker; and (2) now they can get rid of Matt Shaw, which they need to do for political reasons
Tbf I’ve heard the political opinions of people who single out a Shaw and they are also terrible. I don’t like Shaw but liberals are less against his implied beliefs than saying the quiet part out loud or doing the quiet thing (like the funeral) publicly. For instance at this pt wouldn’t be stunned to find out Shaw is more against the first live streamed US holocaust than those whose entire worldview is its all good so long as a democrat does it.
Economics greenhorn here. Outside of Bobby Bonilla, is there an analyst or publication that regularly revisits these contracts with large deferrals after they pay out to calculate how close present-day value estimates came to the actual historical value? Would the bulk of any difference largely come down to the accuracy of predicted vs actual interest rates over time, or is that too simplistic? Have players or owners typically “won” highly deferred deals compared to day-of-signing expectations?
As more of such deals eventually conclude, I’d be interested in a summary article.
*inflation rates, not interest. Duh