D-Train D-Railed

Dontrelle Willis is broken. At 26 years old, for whatever reason, he has lost the ability to throw the ball over the plate. Here are his performances so far in 2008:

April 5th, vs White Sox: 5 IP, 1 H, 7 BB, 0 K, 99 pitches, 46 strikes
April 11th, vs White Sox: 0 IP, 0 H, 2 BB, 0 K, 14 pitches, 4 strikes
May 23rd, vs Twins: 1 IP, 1 H, 2 BB, 0 K, 28 pitches, 13 strikes
June 3rd, vs Athletics: 4 IP, 2 H, 5 BB, 3 K, 70 pitches, 37 strikes
June 9th, vs Indians: 1 1/3 IP, 3 H, 5 BB, 2 K, 64 pitches, 27 strikes

After his April 11th appearance, the Tigers put him on the DL to try to give him a chance to figure out his mechanics and get himself ready to pitch. It didn’t work, and after three more disastrous appearances since returning, he’s now been optioned to Single-A Lakeland of the Florida State League, as the Tigers are going to put him on the Roy Halladay plan to try to repair their busted starting pitcher. Toronto sent Halladay back to the minors in 2000 after he posted a 10.64 ERA in 67 innings of work, and with some changes in his approach and his delivery, he returned in 2001 and restarted a dominating, Cy Young career.

That’s obviously the best case scenario for Willis, but it appears an unlikely one. While Halladay was bad in 2000, he wasn’t anywhere near this horrible.

Halladay, 2000: 5.59 BB/9, 5.85 K/9, 1.86 HR/9, 6.49 FIP
Willis, 2008: 16.68 BB/9, 3.97 K/9, 1.59 HR/9, 10.11 FIP

Halladay was bad, but Willis is struggling on a Rick Ankiel level. Only 48% of his pitches on the season have been strikes, and he’s posting a dreadful 6% swinging strike rate. Even when he manages to get the ball over the plate, which is a rarity unto itself, hitters are making contact. He’s simply not able to locate any of his pitches, and the results lead to either a called ball or a crushed line drive.

Generally, when a pitcher struggles this badly, the initial assumption is that he’s hurt, but Willis’ stuff hasn’t taken much of a dive. His fastball velocity still sits at 88.5 MPH, down less than 1 MPH from last year’s mark, and he’s actually throwing his change-up harder this year than at any point in the last four years. If he’s’ hurt, it isn’t affecting his velocity.

Really, the best guess here is that it’s a mental problem. By sending him to Lakeland, the Tigers can get him some work away from the obsessive eyes of fans and let him tinker with his mechanics in a safe environment where the results don’t matter. But, for 2008, Tigers fans should assume they’re not going to see Willis again – he could use the next three months in the minors to fix what’s broken and try to return as a successful pitcher in 2009.