Daily Graphing – Jarrod Washburn

With most of the top-tier free agent pitchers already signed, teams that missed out on the first round of signings will open their wallets towards the second tier starters. Jarrod Washburn fits the bill and rumor has it the Rangers and Nationals are interested in signing him. After going 18-6 with a 3.15 ERA in 2002, he had two disappointing seasons with an ERA over 4.00. In 2005 he seemed to recapture some of that 2002 form by going 8-8 with a 3.20 ERA. His 8-8 record was mostly due to his 5th worst run support in the American League. Is he likely to repeat his 2005 season or will he revert back to his 2003 and 2004 mediocrity?

If only he never had to face a right handed batter. I guess that could be said about any left-handed pitcher but it's especially true with Jarrod Washburn. In 2005 he had a strikeout to walk ratio (K/BB) of 6.75 against left handed batters, the fourth best ratio in baseball. Unfortunately, only 20% of the batters he faced actually batted left-handed. His K/BB against right-handed batters has been in a four year decline, and despite his success against left-handed batters, his overall K/BB has also been headed down the past four years.

To add the list of things that are down, take a look at his fly ball percentage. He used to be primarily a fly ball pitcher, but in recent years he's managed to even it out by allowing an equal number of fly balls and ground balls. Depending on where he ends up, this may or may not be ideal. If the Nationals sign him, a fly ball pitcher would be perfect for the spacious outfield of R.F.K. Stadium. Overall though, it's nice to him induce less fly balls as it may help him limit the number of home runs he allows. He's never been particularly good at keeping the ball in the park.

Jarrod Washburn will assuredly have more wins next year, but I doubt he'll be able to keep his ERA as low as it was in 2005. I think his success against left-handed batters was inflated, which contributed to his low ERA. He should be a reliable, but unspectacular addition to any pitching staff.