Daily Notes: Baseball in the Palm of Your Hand, Metaphorically

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Three Notable Florida State League Peformances
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: High-A Florida State League
3. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
4. Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages

Three Notable Florida State League Peformances
The leaderboards for the High-A Florida State League are below. Here are brief notes on three players from those leaderboards — like who they are mostly, for example.

• Out-performing the rest of the FSL at the moment is Toronto infield prospect Andrew Burns. An 11th-round pick in 2011 by the Blue Jays out of the University of Arizona, Burns has posted an impressive 13:6 walk-to-strikeout ratio, while also hitting two home runs, for Dunedin. The plate-discipline figures represent a marked improvement over his previously established levels. While little digital ink has been spilled with regard to Burns, John Sickels did note in his top-20 prospect list for Toronto that “[i]f you want a sleeper, keep an eye on infielder Andy Burns, who showed a potent power/speed combo in Low-A before getting injured in July. He’s under the radar but he’s got tools and some skills to go with them.”

• Minnesota’s Miguel Sano is generally regarded as possessing plus-plus power and, so far this season, he’s demonstrating plus-plus power, having posted a raw home-run rate (8.5%) about six times the FSL average. His strikeout rate and defensive limitations remain the primary variables with regard to his success in the majors. The former remains unchanged. With regard to the latter, the author has no ideas.

• No pitcher has demonstrated better control of the strike zone so far in the FSL than Tampa Bay left-handed prospect Ryan Carpenter. A seventh-round pick by the club out of Gonzaga in 2011, Carpenter doesn’t necessarily have the most predictable college profile, exhibiting both great size (6-foot-5, 225) and above-average velocity (touching 95 mph), although the latter has fluctuated, according to Robbie Knopf.

SCOUT Leaderboards: High-A Florida State League
Previously considered: Triple-A International League (April 10) / Triple-A Pacific Coast League (April 11) / Double-A Eastern League (April 12) / Double-A Southern League (April 16) / Double-A Texas League (April 17) / High-A Carolina League (April 22) / High-A California League (April 23).

Below are the present SCOUT hitting and pitching leaderboards for the High-A Florida State League.

“What is a SCOUT leaderboard, gentleman author?” perhaps a person is asking somewhere — to which question that same author has provided a (hopefully) reasonable answer here. In brief, however, it’s this: an attempt to use our knowledge of certain metrics, and at what sample sizes they become reliable, to measure run production and prevention in instances where small samples prevail.

Below, as I say, are those leaderboards for the High-A Florida State League. (Note: statistics current as of Wednesday morning.)

SCOUT Leaderboard: Florida State League Hitters (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for the High-A Florida State League. SCOUT+ combines regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates in a FIP-like equation to produce a result not unlike wRC+, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all Florida State League hitters) and above 100 is above average. xHR%, xBB%, and xK% stand for expected home run, walk, and strikeout rate, respectively.

Player	Team	Age	PA	HR	BB	K	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	SCOUT+
Andrew Burns	Blue Jays (A+)	22	85	2	13	6	1.7%	11.0%	12.6%	127
Miguel Sano	Twins (A+)	20	82	7	7	20	3.4%	8.2%	22.3%	119
Peter Mooney	Blue Jays (A+)	22	58	0	12	5	1.1%	11.6%	15.5%	117
Zeke Devoss	Cubs (A+)	22	88	2	16	18	1.7%	12.4%	20.2%	116
Alejandro Segovia	Rays (A+)	23	63	4	4	9	2.5%	7.4%	17.5%	116
Stephen Piscotty	Cardinals (A+)	22	47	2	4	2	1.9%	8.0%	14.9%	116
Michael Gonzales	Twins (A+)	25	77	4	10	17	2.4%	9.8%	21.0%	115
Gregory Polanco	Pirates (A+)	21	78	1	7	6	1.4%	8.3%	13.5%	113
Kyle Knudson	Twins (A+)	25	43	2	4	4	1.9%	8.2%	16.8%	113
Carlos Alonso	Phillies (A+)	25	71	1	12	12	1.4%	11.1%	18.4%	112

SCOUT Leaderboard: Florida State League Hitters (Age 22 and Under)
Here are the top-10 batters of the High-A Florida State League who might still, because of their age, be considered prospects — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player	Team	Age	PA	HR	BB	K	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	SCOUT+
Andrew Burns	Blue Jays (A+)	22	85	2	13	6	1.7%	11.0%	12.6%	127
Miguel Sano	Twins (A+)	20	82	7	7	20	3.4%	8.2%	22.3%	119
Peter Mooney	Blue Jays (A+)	22	58	0	12	5	1.1%	11.6%	15.5%	117
Zeke Devoss	Cubs (A+)	22	88	2	16	18	1.7%	12.4%	20.2%	116
Stephen Piscotty	Cardinals (A+)	22	47	2	4	2	1.9%	8.0%	14.9%	116
Gregory Polanco	Pirates (A+)	21	78	1	7	6	1.4%	8.3%	13.5%	113
Gary Sanchez	Yankees (A+)	20	78	3	8	14	2.0%	8.8%	18.8%	112
Jorge Soler	Cubs (A+)	21	53	2	7	9	1.8%	9.3%	18.8%	111
Ryan Rieger	Marlins (A+)	22	78	2	5	9	1.7%	7.3%	15.5%	110
Mason Williams	Yankees (A+)	21	87	0	15	15	1.0%	12.0%	18.3%	110

SCOUT Leaderboard: Florida State League Pitchers (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the High-A Florida State League. SCOUT- combines regressed strikeout and walk rates in a kwERA-like equation to produce a number not unlike ERA-, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all Florida State League pitchers) and below 100 is better than average. xK% and xBB% stand for expected strikeout and walk rate, respectively.

Player	Team	Age	G	GS	IP	TBF	K	BB	xK%	xBB%	SCOUT-
Ryan Carpenter	Rays (A+)	22	4	3	19.0	72	24	2	26.3%	7.2%	77
Tony Davis	Blue Jays (A+)	25	7	0	10.0	39	16	3	25.3%	7.9%	82
Nick Wittgren	Marlins (A+)	22	8	0	10.1	35	14	0	24.5%	7.4%	83
Frank Del Valle	Cubs (A+)	23	5	0	8.2	37	16	7	25.6%	8.6%	84
Austin Hubbard	Rays (A+)	25	7	0	10.2	45	16	3	24.5%	7.8%	84
Shane Greene	Yankees (A+)	24	4	4	23.1	95	25	4	23.9%	7.2%	85
Colin Kleven	Phillies (A+)	22	3	3	11.1	61	19	5	24.4%	7.9%	85
Dustin Antolin	Blue Jays (A+)	23	6	0	7.2	28	12	1	24.1%	7.7%	85
Fred Lewis	Yankees (A+)	26	5	0	9.1	39	14	2	24.0%	7.7%	86
Michael O’Brien	Yankees (A+)	23	4	4	17.2	80	22	7	23.9%	8.0%	87

SCOUT Leaderboard: Florida State League Pitchers (Starters Only)
Here are the top-10 pitchers in the High-A Florida State League who have made at least half of their appearances as starts — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player	Team	Age	G	GS	IP	TBF	K	BB	xK%	xBB%	SCOUT-
Ryan Carpenter	Rays (A+)	22	4	3	19.0	72	24	2	26.3%	7.2%	77
Shane Greene	Yankees (A+)	24	4	4	23.1	95	25	4	23.9%	7.2%	85
Colin Kleven	Phillies (A+)	22	3	3	11.1	61	19	5	24.4%	7.9%	85
Michael O’Brien	Yankees (A+)	23	4	4	17.2	80	22	7	23.9%	8.0%	87
Nick Hernandez	Phillies (A+)	24	3	3	17.0	69	19	6	23.4%	8.0%	89
Ryan Searle	Cubs (A+)	24	4	2	17.0	75	19	3	22.6%	7.4%	89
Francisco Liriano	Pirates (A+)	29	1	1	3.0	9	6	0	22.6%	7.8%	91
Luis Mateo	Mets (A+)	23	1	1	6.2	24	9	2	22.6%	7.9%	91
Nicholas Kingham	Pirates (A+)	21	4	4	20.2	85	20	4	21.9%	7.4%	92
Jose Urena	Marlins (A+)	21	4	3	18.2	70	17	3	21.9%	7.4%	92

Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
Seattle at Houston | 14:10 ET
It’s mostly absurd to watch this game — especially on such a day as when Matt Harvey and Jeff Samardzija and Stephen Strasburg are pitching. That said, it’s Robbie Grossman’s major-league debut. Grossman, who dominated the Arizona Fall League in 2011 before suffering a broken hamate, has been absent from the tops of prospect lists, but has also continued to get on base frequently. He appears to be batting leadoff for the Astros today.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Television

Arizona at San Francisco | 15:45 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
Shall I compare Jon Miller’s voice to a summer’s day? Yes, that seems reasonable. Also acceptable: butter, butterscotch, and just actual scotch (provided it’s from Islay and has been aged sufficiently).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: San Francisco Radio

Texas at Los Angeles AL | 22:05 ET
In addition to Yu Darvish and the many splendors for which he’s likely to be responsible, this game also features the first ever major-league start for left-hander Michael Roth. Roth, while lacking “stuff” proper, was the metronome of the South Carolina’s recent NCAA championship teams. The left-hander has made four appearances and pitched 5.0 innings this season in relief, recording a 7:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio while so doing and inducing four grounders on 10 total batted-balls.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio

Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages
Note: the very proprietary and also critically acclaimed NERD game scores will become available again at the end of April/beginning of May.

Here — for purposes entirely of entertainment and not for gambling, which is a Scourge of Propriety — are all of today’s games with moneyline odds (from relatively “sharp” sportsbook Pinnacle Sports) translated into projected winning percentages (and adjusted to account for the vigorish).

Games are listed in Eastern Time, and presented as they appear at Pinnacle — which appears to be in order of (a) National League and then (b) American League and, finally, then (c) interleague play.

***Note: five games are omitted from the following table (because no odds were available for them on Wednesday morning): Toronto at Baltimore (12:35 ET, Brandon Morrow vs. Josh Stinson), Cleveland at Chicago AL (14:10 ET, Zach McAllister vs. Jose Quintana), Atlanta at Colorado (15:10 ET, Tim Hudson vs. Tyler Chatwood), Kansas City at Detroit (19:08 ET, Wade Davis vs. Max Scherzer), and Texas at Los Angeles AL (22:05 ET, Yu Darvish vs. Michael Roth).***

Game	Teams	Starters	IP	xFIP-	WAR	—–	Line	Win%
12:35	Chicago Cubs	Jeff Samardzija	26.2	71	0.8	|	2.55	38.5%
ET	Cincinnati Reds	Mat Latos	26.1	69	0.7	|	1.60	61.5%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
13:05	St. Louis Cardinals	Jaime Garcia	22.1	91	0.2	|	2.35	41.8%
ET	Washington Nationals	Stephen Strasburg	24.1	102	0.2	|	1.69	58.2%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
15:45	Arizona Diamondbacks	Ian Kennedy	24.2	106	0.3	|	2.40	40.9%
ET	San Francisco Giants	Madison Bumgarner	26.1	84	0.4	|	1.66	59.1%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
19:05	Pittsburgh Pirates	Wandy Rodriguez	16.0	99	0.5	|	2.14	45.9%
ET	Philadelphia Phillies	Roy Halladay	22.1	104	-0.2	|	1.81	54.1%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
19:10	Los Angeles Dodgers	Ted Lilly	N/A	N/A	N/A	|	2.41	40.7%
ET	New York Mets	Matt Harvey	29.0	84	1.0	|	1.65	59.3%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
22:10	Milwaukee Brewers	Marco Estrada	24.0	96	0.0	|	1.86	52.6%
ET	San Diego Padres	Edinson Volquez	18.1	130	-0.1	|	2.07	47.4%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
14:10	Seattle Mariners	Joe Saunders	22.0	120	0.1	|	1.89	52.0%
ET	Houston Astros	Lucas Harrell	21.2	115	-0.4	|	2.04	48.0%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
16:05	Oakland Athletics	Brett Anderson	19.2	92	0.0	|	2.51	39.1%
ET	Boston Red Sox	Jon Lester	26.0	72	1.1	|	1.61	60.9%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
19:10	New York Yankees	Andy Pettitte	22.1	103	0.4	|	2.12	46.3%
ET	Tampa Bay Rays	Alex Cobb	21.1	91	0.4	|	1.83	53.7%