Daily Notes: Chris Carter’s Record Strikeout Rate in Context

September 13, 2013

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Chris Carter’s Record Strikeout Rate in Context
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Chris Carter’s Record Strikeout Rate in Context
Of late, the author has encountered more than one concerned internet citizen making a comment to the effect that Houston corner-type Chris Carter has recorded, thus far, the highest strikeout rate of any qualified batter in major-league history. Indeed, as the table below indicates — of the ten highest single-season strikeout rates since 1913 (i.e. the year since which we have contiguous strikeout data) — these concerned citizens are also generally honest ones.

To wit:

Rank	Name	Team	Season	PA	K%
1	Chris Carter	Astros	2013	526	36.9%
2	Mark Reynolds	D-backs	2010	596	35.4%
3	Adam Dunn	White Sox	2012	649	34.2%
4	Dave Nicholson	White Sox	1963	520	33.7%
5	Mark Reynolds	D-backs	2009	662	33.7%
6	Mark Reynolds	D-backs	2008	613	33.3%
7	Rob Deer	Brewers	1987	566	32.9%
8	Jack Cust	Athletics	2008	598	32.9%
9	Rob Deer	Brewers	1986	546	32.8%
10	Mike Napoli	Red Sox	2013	534	32.6%

What one finds here is a collection of power hitters from the past 25 years, basically, who compensated for a lack of contact with power and/or patience. What one also finds is Dave Nicholson, who seems to have produced a 1.6 WAR in 1963 as a left fielder for the Chicago White Sox — and ultimately a career WAR of 1.7 in 1661 plate appearances.

If one’s ambition, however, is to determine the place of Chris Carter’s 2013 season in all of baseball of all time, one must consider his numbers relative to the context in which they’ve been recorded. For, as a brief inspection of the leaderboards at this site reveals, the 2013 season has produced the second-highest league-wide strikeout rate of the last 101 years.

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With a view to examining which players have produced the most prolific strikeout rates relative to their peers, the author has first identified the league-average strikeout rate (strikeouts per plate appearance, that is) for every season since 1913. The author has then divided every qualified player’s seasonal strikeout rate (since 1913, as well) by the relevant league-average rate for that year. The result is an index stat, K-, which measures strikeout rate relative to league average, where a higher figure represents more striking out.

Here are the results of those calculations:

Rank	Name	Team	Season	PA	K%	Lg K%	K-
1	Vince DiMaggio	Bees	1938	611	21.9%	8.7%	252
2	Pat Seerey	Indians	1945	485	20.0%	8.5%	235
3	Jimmie Dykes	Athletics	1922	581	16.9%	7.2%	235
4	Gary Alexander	– – –	1978	564	29.4%	12.6%	233
5	Boze Berger	Indians	1935	504	19.2%	8.3%	231
6	Babe Ruth	Yankees	1922	495	16.2%	7.2%	225
7	Dave Nicholson	White Sox	1963	520	33.7%	15.3%	220
8	Vince DiMaggio	Bees	1937	539	20.6%	9.4%	219
9	Dave Kingman	Mets	1975	543	28.2%	13.0%	217
10	Vince DiMaggio	Pirates	1943	651	19.4%	9.0%	216

Three Notes
• Old brother both to Dom and Joe, center-fielder Vince DiMaggio is responsible for the most prolific strikeout rate of the last 100 years — not only recording the highest rate relative to league, but also having produced three of the ten-highest adjusted strikeout rates over that interval. While DiMaggio’s career rate of 19.7% is precisely average in 2013, it’s more than double the overall rate of 9.1% registered league-wide between 1937 and -46.

• By this methodology, Carter’s 2013 season is only the 66th-worst so far as strikeout rate relative to league is concerned. His index figure: a 187 K-.

• It’s very possible that a more responsible way of conducting a study such as this one would be to find the z-score for every player’s strikeout rate for every season since 1913. In addition to being the more responsible method, however, this would also be the considerably more time-consuming one.

Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
Cleveland at Chicago AL | 14:10 ET
Danny Salazar (37.0 IP, 71 xFIP-, 0.6 WAR) faces Hector Santiago (138.2 IP, 113 xFIP-, 1.5 WAR). Of some relevance to this matchup is the following table, which features the top-five starters by strikeout rate over the last month (minimum three starts):

Rank	Name	Team	IP	TBF	K%
1	Ubaldo Jimenez	Indians	31.2	128	32.8%
2	Stephen Strasburg	Nationals	23.2	93	30.1%
3	Danny Salazar	Indians	19.1	77	29.9%
4	Jose Fernandez	Marlins	33.0	127	29.9%
5	Yu Darvish	Rangers	33.0	134	29.1%

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire.

Note that these NERD scores are calculated using the methodology introduced recently and designed to account for the influence of playoff odds on the watchability of games. ***Unlike in recent iterations of this table, the author has adjusted the day’s NERD Game Scores such that, combined, they average 5.0.*** This allows said table to resemble more closely the Game Scores that have appeared here over the preceding four months.

Away		SP	Tm.	Gm.	Tm.	SP		Home	Time
Danny Salazar	CLE	10	3	6	0	3	CHA	Hector Santiago	14:10
Jake Arrieta	CHN	1	0	9	10	6	PIT	Charlie Morton	19:05
Kyle Kendrick	PHI	3	0	4	0	10	WAS	St. Strasburg	19:05
Jason Hammel	BAL	2	1	2	0	5	TOR	Todd Redmond	19:07
Bruce Chen	KC	2	1	3	0	6	DET	Justin Verlander	19:08
Brad Hand*	MIA	5	0	3	0	5	NYN	Jon Niese	19:10
Hiroki Kuroda	NYA	5	4	6	0	7	BOS	John Lackey	19:10
Ian Kennedy	SD	4	0	3	0	7	ATL	David Hale*	19:30
Dan Straily	OAK	5	5	10	5	7	TEX	Derek Holland	20:05
Jason Vargas	LAA	3	0	2	0	6	HOU	Dallas Keuchel	20:10
Mat Latos	CIN	8	1	4	0	4	MIL	Kyle Lohse	20:10
Chris Archer	TB	5	7	7	0	2	MIN	Kevin Correia	20:10
Hisashi Iwakuma	SEA	7	0	10	9	9	STL	Adam Wainwright	20:15
Tyler Chatwood	COL	6	0	3	0	5	AZ	Brandon McCarthy	21:40
Madis. Bumgarner	SF	8	0	5	0	10	LAN	Clayton Kershaw	22:10

To learn how Pitcher and Team NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.

11 Comments

Oldest

Newest Most Voted

Hurtlockertwo

12 years ago

I’m thinking that even though he is “only” 66th on a list of negative achievements in the history of baseball, it’s still pretty bad.

Reply to Hurtlockertwo

He is also on pace to have the most strikeouts in a season in the history of baseball, context or not.

MDLMember since 2021

In order to make the top-10 list, Carter would need a K% of 42.6%

Vince DiMaggio’s record is equivalent to a K% of 49.64%

Curious Gino

Reply to MDL

What would he need to hit like to have the same ISO, OBP, etc?

GoodEnoughForMeMember since 2024

Oh, no, not the bees! Not the bees!

cass

I think that saints should be granted some bonus discretionary NERD. A score of 10 is far too low for St. Strasburg.

Pirates Hurdles

Reply to cass

This gets funnier every 5th day when someone posts it.

Schtephenley Schtraschschbujgens

Reply to Pirates Hurdles

Ta kon bo ta dolo asina….nan ta hasi propaganda pa nos, anto un lolo manera abo, tin ku hode e kos…………..konjo kens yen di compleho pendew

BipMember since 2016

Interesting how, as the playoff picture becomes clear for some, and gets down the wire for others, we see the team NERD scores fly to the opposite extremes.

baycommuter

I watched Dave Nicholson as a kid. An even more extreme version of Chris Carter or Adam Dunn, but didn’t connect often enough to stay in the majors. He hit one of the longest home runs ever in old Comiskey.

PackBob

Nicholson should get more ink. It took 47 years to break his record! The players are at least trying these days to better the record. The relative rate has it’s merits, but there’s nothing like the raw number.