Daily Notes: Crowdsourced vs. Actual Contract Values
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.
1. Crowdsourced vs. Actual Contract Values
2. Table: Top-Five Remaining Crowdsourced Contracts
3. Potentially Irrelevant Video: Michael Bourn, Diving Catch
Crowdsourced vs. Actual Contract Values
Before the end of the season, FanGraphs asked readers to project what sort of contracts the league’s free agents would receive, both in terms of years (Yrs) and average annual value (AAV). Now, as we approach the middle of February, the largest portion of those same free agents have received actual, real-live contracts.
Below are the (sortable) results for those same players who’ve received contracts. The headings preceded by a lower-case c designate the crowdsourced results. The headings preceded by a lower-case a designate the actual results. Finally, headings with a lower-case d designate the difference between the crowdsourced and actual results, wherein a positive result represents those instances where the crowd was particularly optimistic about a player. (All data courtesy MLB Trade Rumors’ Free Agent Tracker.)
| Player | Team | cYrs | cAAV | cTot | aYrs | aAAV | aTot | dYrs | dAAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delmon Young | PHI | 2.4 | $7.6 | $18.2 | 1 | $0.8 | $0.8 | 1.4 | $6.8 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 1.6 | $7.3 | $11.5 | 2 | $0.5 | $1.0 | -0.4 | $6.8 |
| Shaun Marcum | NYN | 2.3 | $9.6 | $21.8 | 1 | $4.0 | $4.0 | 1.3 | $5.6 |
| Kelly Johnson | TB | 2.0 | $6.3 | $12.5 | 1 | $2.5 | $2.5 | 1.0 | $3.8 |
| Travis Hafner | NYA | 1.2 | $5.2 | $6.4 | 1 | $2.0 | $2.0 | 0.2 | $3.2 |
| Carlos Pena | HOU | 1.3 | $6.0 | $7.8 | 1 | $2.9 | $2.9 | 0.3 | $3.1 |
| Raul Ibanez | SEA | 1.3 | $5.6 | $7.3 | 1 | $2.8 | $2.8 | 0.3 | $2.9 |
| Alex Gonzalez | MIL | 1.3 | $4.1 | $5.5 | 1 | $1.5 | $1.5 | 0.3 | $2.6 |
| Michael Bourn | CLE | 4.7 | $14.3 | $67.5 | 4 | $12.0 | $48.0 | 0.7 | $2.3 |
| Brandon McCarthy | ARI | 2.4 | $10.0 | $24.0 | 2 | $7.8 | $15.5 | 0.4 | $2.3 |
| Eric Chavez | ARI | 1.4 | $4.8 | $6.7 | 1 | $3.0 | $3.0 | 0.4 | $1.8 |
| Michael Gonzalez | MIL | 1.4 | $4.0 | $5.7 | 1 | $2.3 | $2.3 | 0.4 | $1.8 |
| Luke Scott | TB | 1.4 | $4.5 | $6.1 | 1 | $2.8 | $2.8 | 0.4 | $1.7 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | NYA | 1.5 | $8.2 | $12.4 | 2 | $6.5 | $13.0 | -0.5 | $1.7 |
| David Ross | BOS | 1.9 | $4.8 | $9.0 | 2 | $3.1 | $6.2 | -0.1 | $1.7 |
| Maicer Izturis | TOR | 2.1 | $4.6 | $9.5 | 3 | $3.0 | $9.0 | -0.9 | $1.6 |
| Placido Polanco | MIA | 1.4 | $4.2 | $6.1 | 1 | $2.8 | $2.8 | 0.4 | $1.5 |
| Jeff Keppinger | CHA | 2.0 | $5.5 | $11.0 | 3 | $4.0 | $12.0 | -1.0 | $1.5 |
| A.J. Pierzynski | TEX | 2.1 | $8.9 | $18.9 | 1 | $7.5 | $7.5 | 1.1 | $1.4 |
| Koji Uehara | BOS | 1.9 | $5.7 | $10.6 | 1 | $4.3 | $4.3 | 0.9 | $1.4 |
| Joe Saunders | SEA | 2.1 | $7.8 | $16.2 | 1 | $6.5 | $6.5 | 1.1 | $1.3 |
| Marco Scutaro | SF | 2.3 | $7.8 | $17.7 | 3 | $6.7 | $20.0 | -0.7 | $1.2 |
| Carlos Villanueva | CHN | 2.0 | $5.9 | $12.1 | 2 | $5.0 | $10.0 | 0.0 | $0.9 |
| Cody Ross | ARI | 2.6 | $9.6 | $25.1 | 3 | $8.7 | $26.0 | -0.4 | $0.9 |
| Mike Adams | PHI | 2.3 | $6.7 | $15.1 | 2 | $6.0 | $12.0 | 0.3 | $0.7 |
| Scott Baker | CHN | 1.8 | $6.1 | $11.1 | 1 | $5.5 | $5.5 | 0.8 | $0.6 |
| Melky Cabrera | TOR | 1.7 | $8.2 | $13.7 | 2 | $8.0 | $16.0 | -0.3 | $0.2 |
| Angel Pagan | SF | 3.2 | $10.1 | $32.4 | 4 | $10.0 | $40.0 | -0.8 | $0.1 |
| Nick Swisher | CLE | 4.4 | $14.0 | $61.8 | 4 | $14.0 | $56.0 | 0.4 | $0.0 |
| Joe Blanton | LAA | 2.1 | $7.5 | $16.0 | 2 | $7.5 | $15.0 | 0.1 | $0.0 |
| David Ortiz | BOS | 2.1 | $13.0 | $27.8 | 2 | $13.0 | $26.0 | 0.1 | $0.0 |
| Jonny Gomes | BOS | 1.5 | $5.0 | $7.5 | 2 | $5.0 | $10.0 | -0.5 | $0.0 |
| Russell Martin | PIT | 2.4 | $8.2 | $20.1 | 2 | $8.5 | $17.0 | 0.4 | -$0.3 |
| Adam LaRoche | WAS | 3.0 | $11.6 | $34.4 | 2 | $12.0 | $24.0 | 1.0 | -$0.4 |
| Edwin Jackson | CHN | 3.1 | $12.5 | $38.7 | 4 | $13.0 | $52.0 | -0.9 | -$0.5 |
| Mike Napoli*** | BOS | 3.5 | $12.4 | $42.8 | 3 | $13.0 | $39.0 | 0.5 | -$0.6 |
| Jeremy Affeldt | SF | 2.0 | $5.3 | $10.6 | 3 | $6.0 | $18.0 | -1.0 | -$0.7 |
| Dan Haren | WAS | 3.0 | $11.7 | $34.6 | 1 | $13.0 | $13.0 | 2.0 | -$1.3 |
| Ryan Dempster | BOS | 2.8 | $11.7 | $32.7 | 2 | $13.3 | $26.5 | 0.8 | -$1.5 |
| Stephen Drew | BOS | 2.4 | $7.8 | $18.5 | 1 | $9.5 | $9.5 | 1.4 | -$1.7 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KC | 1.8 | $6.1 | $10.8 | 3 | $8.3 | $25.0 | -1.2 | -$2.2 |
| B.J. Upton | ATL | 4.5 | $12.6 | $56.6 | 5 | $15.1 | $75.3 | -0.5 | -$2.4 |
| Shane Victorino | BOS | 2.7 | $10.3 | $27.6 | 3 | $13.0 | $39.0 | -0.3 | -$2.7 |
| Torii Hunter | DET | 2.2 | $10.3 | $22.4 | 2 | $13.0 | $26.0 | 0.2 | -$2.7 |
| Hiroki Kuroda | NYA | 1.7 | $12.2 | $20.6 | 1 | $15.0 | $15.0 | 0.7 | -$2.8 |
| Kevin Youkilis | NYA | 2.2 | $9.2 | $20.2 | 1 | $12.0 | $12.0 | 1.2 | -$2.8 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 4.0 | $13.0 | $52.2 | 5 | $16.0 | $80.0 | -1.0 | -$3.0 |
| Lance Berkman | TEX | 1.3 | $7.7 | $10.0 | 1 | $11.0 | $11.0 | 0.3 | -$3.3 |
| Rafael Soriano | WAS | 2.7 | $10.4 | $28.4 | 2 | $14.0 | $28.0 | 0.7 | -$3.6 |
| Josh Hamilton | LAA | 4.8 | $20.3 | $97.3 | 5 | $25.0 | $125.0 | -0.2 | -$4.7 |
| Zack Greinke | LAN | 5.7 | $18.6 | $105.8 | 6 | $24.5 | $147.0 | -0.3 | -$5.9 |
| Average | — | 2.4 | $8.7 | $23.9 | 2.2 | $8.4 | $22.9 | 0.2 | $0.4 |
***As reader TKDC notes — and as the author should have done, as well — the terms of Mike Napoli’s contract have changed, following a physical which revealed that he (i.e. Napoli) no longer has hips. The restructured deal is for one-year and $5 million guaranteed, with various bonuses for time on active roster.
On average, to this point, the crowd has been remarkably accurate, overprojecting both years and average annual value by a slim margin — less than 10%, in each case. If one were interested in making said margins even slimmer, he could modify the terms of the Francisco Liriano contract listed here to reflect the (numerous) stipulations included in his deal with the Pirates — most of which concern an injury Liriano suffered to his non-throwing arm this winter.
As noted in early December, readers have perhaps been a little conservative this offseason so far as the league’s biggest contracts — i.e. those concerning Zack Greinke and Josh Hamilton — are concerned. Otherwise, precision has largely been the rule.
Table: Top-Five Remaining Crowdsourced Contracts
Of the free agents whose possible contract terms were crowdsourced this offseason, here are the five remaining largest overall crowdsourced values:
| Player | Team | cYrs | cAAV | cTot |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lohse | ??? | 3.5 | $12.7 | $44.5 |
| Francisco Rodriguez | ??? | 1.6 | $5.4 | $8.4 |
| Carlos Lee | ??? | 1.3 | $5.7 | $7.6 |
| Roy Oswalt | ??? | 1.1 | $5.7 | $6.5 |
| Casey Kotchman | ??? | 1.3 | $3.7 | $4.8 |
Potentially Irrelevant Video: Michael Bourn, Diving Catch
Here’s footage that probably doesn’t matter of Michael Bourn making a diving catch off a Cameron Maybin liner:
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Mike Napoli needs to be updated.
Seems the crowd is smarter than a lot of national pundits.
It seems like the crowd is a lot smarter than a number of G.M.s who rush into hasty decisions. Maybe Drayton Moore should crowd source all of his roster moves before actually making them?
Just because these were the contracts signed doesn’t mean they are accurate, i.e. “good”, contracts. There is no “smart” or “dumb” regarding this information. The only thing the above proves is that the fans and GMs are mostly on the same page. Time will tell as to whether the fans/GMs were right or wrong.
Smart about reading the market, not evaluating players. Time will tell whether Guthrie will be effective in KC, but we can already say that Moore misread what his market value was.
Looking at the notable FA’s left, it’s pretty slim pickings…what are we thinking Carlos Lee will get now? 1 year, 3 mil? Kotchman, 1 year, 2 mil?
The crowd’s prediction for Bourn actually isn’t half bad: 4.7 years means 4 or 5, so it’s $14.3 vs $12, which is a 20% error.
20% error is not that bad, heh.
It stands to reason that the higher the AAV the higher the difference. It would be good to tabulate the dAAV/aAAV to get an idea of the error rate. I think it will make the crowd projections look even more impressive!
I still find it amusing that the Fangraphs crowd thought Delmon Young would score an AAV of close to $8M.
Shouldn’t overall daav be calculated as average of absolute value? The way it’s currently calculated means the average difference will be close to zero regardless of how much accuracy varied.
Or use RMS or any metric that can actually be used for a data spectra that contains negative and positive values.
As it stands its pointless.
Here’s another way to look at the data, which might be especially helpful here where we have partial years predicted. I can’t seem to find it through searching, but Tango has posted before about a rule of thumb in equating contracts of multiple years. I believe that it was just adding the year number and the AAV value into one number.
e.g. Say someone is looking for a 4 year, $40 million contract. With a $10M AAV, that would add to 14. So it would roughly equate to a 3 year deal for $33 million ($11M AAV), which also counts as a 14. Or a 5 year deal for $45 million. It’s a rough guide, but it seems to pass the smell test, and it gives another tool to compare the overall accuracy on deals where the consensus was split on the years.