Daily Notes: Crowdsourced vs. Actual Contract Values
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.
1. Crowdsourced vs. Actual Contract Values, Nearly Complete
2. Table: The Four Remaining Crowdsourced Contracts
3. Raw Image: Lance Berman, Licking His Chops
Crowdsourced vs. Actual Contract Values, Nearly Complete
Before the end of the season, FanGraphs asked readers to project what sort of contracts the league’s free agents would receive, both in terms of years (Yrs) and average annual value (AAV). With the recent signing by Milwaukee of right-hander Kyle Lohse, only four crowdsourced free agents remain unsigned.
Below are the (sortable) results for the players who’ve received contracts. The headings preceded by a lower-case c designate the crowdsourced results. The headings preceded by a lower-case a designate the actual results. Finally, headings with a lower-case d designate the difference between the crowdsourced and actual results, wherein a positive result represents those instances where a player’s actual contract was higher than the crowdsourced value.
So, for example, the crowd estimated that Lance Berkman would receive $7.7 million annually, while he actually received $11.0 million — i.e. $3.3 million, or 42.6%, more. Positive numbers in the right hand column, therefore, represent instances in which the crowd was pessimistic relative to reality; negative numbers, instances of optimism.
Players who signed minor-league deals have been assigned major-league minimum contract terms ($490 K for 2013). All data courtesy MLB Trade Rumors’ Free Agent Tracker.
| Player | Team | cYrs | cAAV | cTot | aYrs | aAAV | aTot | dYrs | dAAV | dAAV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance Berkman | TEX | 1.3 | $7.7 | $10.0 | 1 | $11.0 | $11.0 | -0.3 | $3.3 | 42.6% |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KC | 1.8 | $6.1 | $10.8 | 3 | $8.3 | $25.0 | 1.2 | $2.2 | 36.9% |
| Rafael Soriano | WAS | 2.7 | $10.4 | $28.4 | 2 | $14.0 | $28.0 | -0.7 | $3.6 | 34.6% |
| Zack Greinke | LAN | 5.7 | $18.6 | $105.8 | 6 | $24.5 | $147.0 | 0.3 | $5.9 | 31.7% |
| Kevin Youkilis | NYA | 2.2 | $9.2 | $20.2 | 1 | $12.0 | $12.0 | -1.2 | $2.8 | 30.5% |
| Torii Hunter | DET | 2.2 | $10.3 | $22.4 | 2 | $13.0 | $26.0 | -0.2 | $2.7 | 26.4% |
| Shane Victorino | BOS | 2.7 | $10.3 | $27.6 | 3 | $13.0 | $39.0 | 0.3 | $2.7 | 25.7% |
| Josh Hamilton | LAA | 4.8 | $20.3 | $97.3 | 5 | $25.0 | $125.0 | 0.2 | $4.7 | 23.1% |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 4.0 | $13.0 | $52.2 | 5 | $16.0 | $80.0 | 1.0 | $3.0 | 23.0% |
| Hiroki Kuroda | NYA | 1.7 | $12.2 | $20.6 | 1 | $15.0 | $15.0 | -0.7 | $2.8 | 22.6% |
| Stephen Drew | BOS | 2.4 | $7.8 | $18.5 | 1 | $9.5 | $9.5 | -1.4 | $1.7 | 22.0% |
| B.J. Upton | ATL | 4.5 | $12.6 | $56.6 | 5 | $15.1 | $75.3 | 0.5 | $2.4 | 19.4% |
| Jeremy Affeldt | SF | 2.0 | $5.3 | $10.6 | 3 | $6.0 | $18.0 | 1.0 | $0.7 | 13.5% |
| Ryan Dempster | BOS | 2.8 | $11.7 | $32.7 | 2 | $13.3 | $26.5 | -0.8 | $1.5 | 13.2% |
| Dan Haren | WAS | 3.0 | $11.7 | $34.6 | 1 | $13.0 | $13.0 | -2.0 | $1.3 | 11.6% |
| Edwin Jackson | CHN | 3.1 | $12.5 | $38.7 | 4 | $13.0 | $52.0 | 0.9 | $0.5 | 4.1% |
| Adam LaRoche | WAS | 3.0 | $11.6 | $34.4 | 2 | $12.0 | $24.0 | -1.0 | $0.4 | 3.8% |
| Russell Martin | PIT | 2.4 | $8.2 | $20.1 | 2 | $8.5 | $17.0 | -0.4 | $0.3 | 3.2% |
| Jonny Gomes | BOS | 1.5 | $5.0 | $7.5 | 2 | $5.0 | $10.0 | 0.5 | $0.0 | 0.8% |
| David Ortiz | BOS | 2.1 | $13.0 | $27.8 | 2 | $13.0 | $26.0 | -0.1 | $0.0 | 0.3% |
| Joe Blanton | LAA | 2.1 | $7.5 | $16.0 | 2 | $7.5 | $15.0 | -0.1 | $0.0 | 0.0% |
| Nick Swisher | CLE | 4.4 | $14.0 | $61.8 | 4 | $14.0 | $56.0 | -0.4 | $0.0 | -0.2% |
| Angel Pagan | SF | 3.2 | $10.1 | $32.4 | 4 | $10.0 | $40.0 | 0.8 | -$0.1 | -0.6% |
| Melky Cabrera | TOR | 1.7 | $8.2 | $13.7 | 2 | $8.0 | $16.0 | 0.3 | -$0.2 | -2.4% |
| Cody Ross | ARI | 2.6 | $9.6 | $25.1 | 3 | $8.7 | $26.0 | 0.4 | -$0.9 | -9.4% |
| Mike Adams | PHI | 2.3 | $6.7 | $15.1 | 2 | $6.0 | $12.0 | -0.3 | -$0.7 | -10.1% |
| Scott Baker | CHN | 1.8 | $6.1 | $11.1 | 1 | $5.5 | $5.5 | -0.8 | -$0.6 | -10.4% |
| Kyle Lohse* | MIL | 3.5 | $12.7 | $44.5 | 3 | $11.0 | $33.0 | -0.5 | -$1.7 | -13.2% |
| Marco Scutaro | SF | 2.3 | $7.8 | $17.7 | 3 | $6.7 | $20.0 | 0.7 | -$1.2 | -14.8% |
| Carlos Villanueva | CHN | 2.0 | $5.9 | $12.1 | 2 | $5.0 | $10.0 | 0.0 | -$0.9 | -15.8% |
| Michael Bourn | CLE | 4.7 | $14.3 | $67.5 | 4 | $12.0 | $48.0 | -0.7 | -$2.3 | -16.1% |
| A.J. Pierzynski | TEX | 2.1 | $8.9 | $18.9 | 1 | $7.5 | $7.5 | -1.1 | -$1.4 | -16.1% |
| Joe Saunders | SEA | 2.1 | $7.8 | $16.2 | 1 | $6.5 | $6.5 | -1.1 | -$1.3 | -16.2% |
| Ichiro Suzuki | NYA | 1.5 | $8.2 | $12.4 | 2 | $6.5 | $13.0 | 0.5 | -$1.7 | -21.2% |
| Brandon McCarthy | ARI | 2.4 | $10.0 | $24.0 | 2 | $7.8 | $15.5 | -0.4 | -$2.3 | -22.5% |
| Koji Uehara | BOS | 1.9 | $5.7 | $10.6 | 1 | $4.3 | $4.3 | -0.9 | -$1.4 | -25.1% |
| Jeff Keppinger | CHA | 2.0 | $5.5 | $11.0 | 3 | $4.0 | $12.0 | 1.0 | -$1.5 | -27.1% |
| Maicer Izturis | TOR | 2.1 | $4.6 | $9.5 | 3 | $3.0 | $9.0 | 0.9 | -$1.6 | -35.1% |
| Placido Polanco | MIA | 1.4 | $4.2 | $6.1 | 1 | $2.8 | $2.8 | -0.4 | -$1.5 | -35.2% |
| David Ross | BOS | 1.9 | $4.8 | $9.0 | 2 | $3.1 | $6.2 | 0.1 | -$1.7 | -35.5% |
| Eric Chavez | ARI | 1.4 | $4.8 | $6.7 | 1 | $3.0 | $3.0 | -0.4 | -$1.8 | -37.9% |
| Luke Scott | TB | 1.4 | $4.5 | $6.1 | 1 | $2.8 | $2.8 | -0.4 | -$1.7 | -38.9% |
| Michael Gonzalez | MIL | 1.4 | $4.0 | $5.7 | 1 | $2.3 | $2.3 | -0.4 | -$1.8 | -43.8% |
| Raul Ibanez | SEA | 1.3 | $5.6 | $7.3 | 1 | $2.8 | $2.8 | -0.3 | -$2.9 | -51.3% |
| Carlos Pena | HOU | 1.3 | $6.0 | $7.8 | 1 | $2.9 | $2.9 | -0.3 | -$3.1 | -52.1% |
| Kelly Shoppach* | SEA | 1.4 | $3.5 | $4.8 | 1 | $1.5 | $1.5 | -0.4 | -$2.0 | -57.0% |
| Shaun Marcum | NYN | 2.3 | $9.6 | $21.8 | 1 | $4.0 | $4.0 | -1.3 | -$5.6 | -58.5% |
| Mike Napoli | BOS | 3.5 | $12.4 | $42.8 | 1 | $5.0 | $5.0 | -2.5 | -$7.4 | -59.5% |
| Kelly Johnson | TB | 2.0 | $6.3 | $12.5 | 1 | $2.5 | $2.5 | -1.0 | -$3.8 | -61.0% |
| Travis Hafner | NYA | 1.2 | $5.2 | $6.4 | 1 | $2.0 | $2.0 | -0.2 | -$3.2 | -61.3% |
| Alex Gonzalez | MIL | 1.3 | $4.1 | $5.5 | 1 | $1.5 | $1.5 | -0.3 | -$2.6 | -63.7% |
| Casey Kotchman* | MIA | 1.3 | $3.7 | $4.8 | 1 | $0.5 | $0.5 | -0.3 | -$3.2 | -86.8% |
| Daisuke Matsuzaka* | CLE | 1.2 | $4.5 | $5.2 | 1 | $0.5 | $0.5 | -0.2 | -$4.0 | -89.0% |
| Delmon Young | PHI | 2.4 | $7.6 | $18.2 | 1 | $0.8 | $0.8 | -1.4 | -$6.8 | -90.1% |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 1.6 | $7.3 | $11.5 | 2 | $0.5 | $1.0 | 0.4 | -$6.8 | -93.1% |
| Average | — | 2.3 | $8.5 | $23.2 | 2.1 | $7.9 | $21.3 | -0.2 | -$0.7 | -7.9% |
*Denotes contracts signed since last inspection of crowdsourced and actual contracts.
On average, to this point, the crowd has been remarkably accurate, overprojecting both years and average annual value by a slim margin — by about 8%, in the case of average annual value.
As noted in an early December iteration of this list, readers were a little conservative this offseason so far as the league’s biggest contracts — i.e. those concerning Zack Greinke and Josh Hamilton — were concerned. Also, older players who’ve experienced injury or decline in recent seasons (Lance Berkman, Kevin Youkilis) generally fared better on the open market than the fans expected.
Table: The Four Remaining Crowdsourced Contracts
Of the free agents whose possible contract terms were crowdsourced this offseason, four remain unsigned, as follow:
| Player | Team | cYrs | cAAV | cTot |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Rodriguez | ??? | 1.6 | $5.4 | $8.4 |
| Carlos Lee | ??? | 1.3 | $5.7 | $7.6 |
| Roy Oswalt | ??? | 1.1 | $5.7 | $6.5 |
| Freddy Sanchez | ??? | 1.2 | $3.1 | $3.8 |
Raw Image: Lance Berman, Licking His Chops
This is a photo stolen from the internet of Lance Berkman — who received considerably more to play in 2013 than the crowd expected — of Lance Berkman licking his actual chops:
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Joe Blanton’s position on the list is oddly cathartic. It had to be thusly.