Daily Notes, Featuring SCOUT Leaders of the PCL
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.
1. SCOUT Leaderboards: Triple-A Pacific Coast League
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule
SCOUT Leaderboards: Triple-A Pacific Coast League
Regarding What Is SCOUT, First of All
SCOUT is a (likely absurd, admittedly unnecessary) metric designed by the author to assess performance in those instances — like in a minor league, for example — where small samples are ubiquitous.
The Offensive Version of SCOUT, How It’s Calculated
The offensive version of SCOUT — represented as SCOUT+, where 100 is league average and above 100 is above average — is essentially a version of wRC+, except using the three main defense-independent metrics (home-run, walk, and strikeout rates), all regressed duly*, as the inputs.
*By the method outlined here.
The Pitching Version of SCOUT, How It’s Calculated
The pitching version of SCOUT — represented as SCOUT-, where 100 is league average and below 100 represents above-average run prevention — is calculated using a version of kwERA, with regressed strikeout and walk rates as the relevant inputs.
Regarding SCOUT, One of Its Benefits
A benefit of SCOUT is it allows one to compare the relative performances of players with markedly different sample sizes — to compare, for example, the performance of Colorado prospect Edwar Cabrera (31.2 IP, 29.3% K, 9.0% BB) to St. Louis’s Shelby Miller (136.2 IP, 26.7% K, 8.4% BB).
Regarding the Pacific Coast League, Its Regular Season
The Pacific Coast League’s regular season ended on September 3rd, it appears. As such, all following numbers are final for 2012.
Top Batters of the Pacific Coast League (Overall)
Here are the top-10 batters of the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, as determined by the methodology explained above.
| Player | Team | Age | PA | xHR% | xBB% | xK% | SCOUT+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Rizzo | Cubs (AAA) | 22 | 284 | 7.8% | 8.1% | 18.3% | 164 |
| Luke Montz | Marlins (AAA) | 28 | 420 | 6.9% | 10.7% | 24.0% | 150 |
| Travis Snider | Blue Jays (AAA) | 24 | 246 | 4.8% | 13.8% | 17.1% | 147 |
| Kila Ka’aihue | Athletics (AAA) | 28 | 305 | 4.9% | 14.4% | 19.7% | 146 |
| Jedd Gyorko | Padres (AAA) | 23 | 408 | 5.9% | 8.3% | 16.7% | 145 |
| Brandon Moss | Athletics (AAA) | 28 | 224 | 5.6% | 9.8% | 17.9% | 144 |
| Josh Donaldson | Athletics (AAA) | 26 | 234 | 4.9% | 9.8% | 14.5% | 141 |
| Brooks Conrad | Brewers (AAA) | 32 | 85 | 5.0% | 10.4% | 17.8% | 139 |
| Donnie Murphy | Marlins (AAA) | 29 | 125 | 5.7% | 10.2% | 21.7% | 139 |
| Daric Barton | Athletics (AAA) | 26 | 336 | 2.4% | 19.6% | 15.8% | 139 |
Top Batters of the Pacific Coast League (Age 24 and Under)
Here are the top-10 batters of the Triple-A Pacific Coast League who might still, because of their age, be considered prospects — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.
| Player | Team | Age | PA | xHR% | xBB% | xK% | SCOUT+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Rizzo | Cubs (AAA) | 22 | 284 | 7.8% | 8.1% | 18.3% | 164 |
| Travis Snider | Blue Jays (AAA) | 24 | 246 | 4.8% | 13.8% | 17.1% | 147 |
| Jedd Gyorko | Padres (AAA) | 23 | 408 | 5.9% | 8.3% | 16.7% | 145 |
| Jerry Sands | Dodgers (AAA) | 24 | 522 | 5.0% | 11.3% | 20.3% | 136 |
| Wil Myers | Royals (AAA) | 21 | 439 | 5.5% | 10.3% | 22.3% | 134 |
| Leonys Martin | Rangers (AAA) | 24 | 260 | 4.3% | 9.2% | 15.0% | 132 |
| Matt Adams | Cardinals (AAA) | 23 | 276 | 6.2% | 5.4% | 20.7% | 132 |
| Yasmani Grandal | Padres (AAA) | 23 | 235 | 2.5% | 15.7% | 15.3% | 129 |
| Travis D’Arnaud | Blue Jays (AAA) | 23 | 303 | 5.3% | 6.3% | 19.5% | 126 |
| Johnny Giavotella | Royals (AAA) | 24 | 418 | 2.4% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 125 |
Top Pitchers of the Pacific Coast League (Overall)
Here are the top-10 pitchers of the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, as determined by the methodology explained above.
| Player | Team | Age | IP | TBF | xK% | xBB% | SCOUT- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Moran | Mariners (AAA) | 23 | 37.0 | 143 | 36.2% | 8.5% | 55 |
| Brad Boxberger | Padres (AAA) | 24 | 43.1 | 183 | 33.9% | 9.2% | 62 |
| Dan Straily | Athletics (AAA) | 23 | 66.2 | 255 | 32.2% | 8.0% | 64 |
| Juan Perez | Brewers (AAA) | 33 | 40.0 | 168 | 32.1% | 9.6% | 68 |
| Cory Burns | Padres (AAA) | 24 | 65.0 | 256 | 30.1% | 7.7% | 68 |
| Yoshinori Tateyama | Rangers (AAA) | 36 | 39.2 | 153 | 29.4% | 7.4% | 69 |
| Jose Valdez | Astros (AAA) | 29 | 43.2 | 205 | 28.8% | 7.5% | 71 |
| Kevin Jepsen | Angels (AAA) | 27 | 25.0 | 98 | 29.6% | 8.7% | 72 |
| Tommy Hottovy | Royals (AAA) | 30 | 50.0 | 210 | 29.0% | 8.2% | 72 |
| Ryota Igarashi | Blue Jays (AAA) | 33 | 21.0 | 76 | 27.6% | 7.9% | 75 |
Top Pitchers of the Pacific Coast League (Starters Only)
Here are the top-10 pitchers in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League who made at least half of their appearances as starts — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.
| Player | Team | Age | IP | TBF | xK% | xBB% | SCOUT- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Straily | Athletics (AAA) | 23 | 66.2 | 255 | 32.2% | 8.0% | 64 |
| Edwar Cabrera | Rockies (AAA) | 24 | 31.2 | 133 | 28.0% | 8.7% | 76 |
| John Ely | Dodgers (AAA) | 26 | 168.2 | 682 | 24.2% | 5.3% | 77 |
| Trevor Bauer | Diamondbacks (AAA) | 21 | 82.0 | 347 | 28.0% | 9.5% | 78 |
| Shelby Miller | Cardinals (AAA) | 21 | 136.2 | 599 | 26.7% | 8.3% | 78 |
| Tyler Lyons | Cardinals (AAA) | 24 | 88.1 | 366 | 24.3% | 6.1% | 79 |
| Tyler Thornburg | Brewers (AAA) | 23 | 37.2 | 162 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 80 |
| Yusmeiro Petit | Giants (AAA) | 27 | 166.2 | 701 | 21.8% | 5.1% | 83 |
| Wade LeBlanc | Marlins (AAA) | 27 | 98.2 | 403 | 22.6% | 5.9% | 83 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks (AAA) | 22 | 52.1 | 227 | 24.2% | 7.8% | 83 |
Three Notable Performances
• Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who turned 23 at the beginning of August, was both the best young and best overall hitter in the PCL this season, per SCOUT, largely owing to his home-run rate. Rizzo hit 23 homers in 284 plate appearances with the Iowa Cubs in a park that, according to StatCorner, features just a 77 home-run park factor for left-handed batters. Through Sunday, Rizzo had hit .300/.351/.475 (.323 BABIP), with a 119 wRC+, in 279 plate appearances as a Cub this season.
• Royals second baseman Johnny Giavotella posted an 8.0% walk and only 11.3% strikeout rate in 503 plate appearances at Triple-A Omaha last season but saw those rates deteriorate considerably (to 3.2% and 17.1%, respectively) during his almost 200 plate appearances at the major-league level. This year, he improved upon his plate-discipline stats, walking in 11.0% of his 418 Triple-A plate appearances and striking out out in just 9.6% of them. A comparable performance at the major-league level (139 PA, 5.8%, 18.7% K,.237/.281/.298, .288 BABIP, 61 wRC+, -0.3 WAR in 2012 so far) remains absent, but the control of the strike zone is very present.
• In tandem with his performance at Double-A Midland, Oakland right-hander Dan Straily, 23, led all minor leaguers this year in strikeouts, with 190 in 152.0 total innings — this, from a 24th-round draft pick out of Marshall in 2009. Straily has refined his mechanics and added velocity in the meantime, however, leading to his breakout season. He starts tonight for the A’s in a decidedly important game against the Angels.
Other SCOUT Leaderboards
International League (Triple-A)
Eastern League (Double-A)
Southern League (Double-A)
Texas League (Double-A)
California, Carolina, and Florida State Leagues Combined (High-A)
Midwest and Sally Leagues Combined (Class-A)
New York-Penn and Northwest Leagues Combined (Low-A)
Appalachian, Arizona, Gulf Coast, and Pioneer Leagues Combined (Rookie)
Today’s Notable Games
Tampa Bay at Baltimore | 19:05 ET
The Rays and Orioles are two and one game out, respectively, of the AL East lead entering play today, from which fact anyone — even an alumnus of a lesser Ivy — might conclude that this game tonight is of no little importance.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Tampa Bay Radio.
Kansas City at Minnesota | 20:10 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
This game features the very same Johnny Giavotella considered in painful detail above.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Minnesota Radio.
Oakland at Los Angeles AL | 22:05 ET
Player featured: likely Rookie of the Year and MVP winner in the American League, Mike Trout. Also: the very same Dan Straily considered — albeit less painfully than Johnny Giavotella — above.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Oakland Radio.
Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 4.8.
Note: the following Game Scores include the poorly conceived playoff-odds adjustment discussed in a recent edition of Daily Notes. Also note: the following table is entirely sortable.
| Away | SP | Tm. | Gm. | Tm. | SP | Home | Time | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Eovaldi | MIA | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 8 | PHI | Roy Halladay | 19:05 |
| Matt Moore | TB | 7 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 8 | BAL | Jason Hammel | 19:05 |
| Erasmo Ramirez* | SEA | 9 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 7 | TOR | Brandon Morrow | 19:07 |
| Hiroki Kuroda | NYA | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 7 | BOS | Jon Lester | 19:10 |
| Kevin Correia | PIT | 2 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 7 | CIN | Mike Leake | 19:10 |
| Jor. Zimmermann | WAS | 8 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 10 | NYN | R.A. Dickey | 19:10 |
| Justin Germano | CHN | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | HOU | Jordan Lyles | 20:05 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | CLE | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | TEX | Matt Harrison | 20:05 |
| Tim Hudson | ATL | 4 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 8 | MIL | Marco Estrada | 20:10 |
| Doug Fister | DET | 7 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 5 | CHA | Jake Peavy | 20:10 |
| Will Smith | KC | 4 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 6 | MIN | Scott Diamond | 20:10 |
| Mad. Bumgarner | SF | 9 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 2 | COL | Jhoulys Chacin | 20:40 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LAN | 10 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 5 | AZ | Ian Kennedy | 21:40 |
| Dan Straily* | OAK | 10 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 6 | LAA | Jerome Williams | 22:05 |
| Ad. Wainwright | STL | 9 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 5 | SD | Edinson Volquez | 22:05 |
To learn more about Pitcher and Team NERD scores click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Erasmo Ramirez gets the ‘Erasmo’ Bump to hit 9 on the NERD, right?