Daily Notes, Ft. Entirely Premature AFL Leaderboards
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.
1. Premature SCOUT Leaderboards: Arizona Fall League
2. Video: Brian Goodwin on Emergence
3. Today’s Playoff Games
Premature SCOUT Leaderboards: Arizona Fall League
Regarding What Happened Recently
Recently (which is to say, Tuesday), this year’s edition of the Arizona Fall League began.
Regarding What’s Happening Now
What happening right now is, is the author is publishing a pair of entirely premature SCOUT leaderboards — one for hitting, the other for pitching — including the data from the first two days of the AFL.
Regarding What Is SCOUT
SCOUT is a metric calculated using regressed defense-indepedent numbers (walks, strikeouts, and — for hitters — home runs). The offensive version is SCOUT+, where 100 is league average and above 100 is above average. Its pitching counterpart is SCOUT-, where 100 is league average and below 100 represents above-average run prevention. (Read more here, if you’re even interested.)
Regarding SCOUT, One of Its Benefits
A benefit of SCOUT is it allows one to compare the relative performances of players with markedly different sample sizes and/or batted-ball luck.
Premature SCOUT Leaderboard: AFL Hitters
Here are the top-10 hitters in the AFL after two stupid games:
| Player | Team | Age | PA | xHR% | xBB% | xK% | SCOUT+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Goodwin | WAS | 21 | 6 | 2.4% | 11.7% | 21.7% | 106 |
| Brock Kjeldgaard | MIL | 26 | 5 | 2.4% | 11.8% | 21.8% | 106 |
| Kevin Pillar | TOR | 23 | 5 | 2.4% | 11.8% | 21.8% | 106 |
| Trayce Thompson | CHA | 21 | 9 | 2.0% | 13.1% | 21.9% | 105 |
| Jonathan Schoop | BAL | 20 | 5 | 2.0% | 12.8% | 21.8% | 105 |
| Matt Skole | WAS | 22 | 6 | 2.4% | 11.7% | 22.3% | 104 |
| Matt Davidson | ARI | 21 | 6 | 2.4% | 11.7% | 22.3% | 104 |
| Kent Matthes | COL | 25 | 4 | 2.4% | 11.4% | 22.0% | 104 |
| Whit Merrifield | KC | 23 | 5 | 2.0% | 12.3% | 21.8% | 103 |
| Andy Wilkins | CHA | 23 | 4 | 2.4% | 11.4% | 22.6% | 103 |
Premature SCOUT Leaderboard: AFL Pitchers
Here are the top-10 pitchers in the AFL — also after just two stupid games:
| Player | Team | Age | IP | TBF | xK% | xBB% | SCOUT- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 22 | 4.0 | 16 | 24.2% | 11.3% | 96 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 23 | 3.0 | 11 | 24.2% | 11.5% | 96 |
| Chris Gloor | SF | 25 | 4.0 | 13 | 23.9% | 11.3% | 96 |
| Gary Daley | OAK | 26 | 2.0 | 9 | 23.9% | 11.4% | 97 |
| Pete Ruiz | BOS | 24 | 1.1 | 4 | 24.0% | 11.5% | 97 |
| Curtis Partch | CIN | 25 | 1.0 | 4 | 24.0% | 11.5% | 97 |
| Kevin Rhoderick | CHN | 23 | 1.2 | 6 | 23.7% | 11.5% | 97 |
| Shawn Haviland | OAK | 26 | 3.0 | 10 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 97 |
| Kirby Yates | TB | 25 | 1.0 | 3 | 23.4% | 11.5% | 98 |
| Andrew Hayes | CIN | 24 | 1.0 | 7 | 23.5% | 11.6% | 98 |
Three Notes
• Brian Goodwin is an entirely athletic outfielder in the Nationals system who showed excellent plate discipline (16.2% BB, 14.7% K) in 266 Class A plate appearances this past season before earning a promotion to Double-A Harrisburg, where his control over the zone eroded (9.7% BB, 26.9% K). Still, he was young for the league.
• Jonathan Schoop is a Baltimore prospect who played all of 2012 as a 20-year-old in the Double-A Eastern League (i.e. young), splitting time at short with Manny Machado, before the latter’s promotion.
• Tyler Chatwood, whom the reader might know from Mediocre Major League Innings with Colorado is younger than Seattle prospect James Paxton, the author was surprised to learn.
Video: Brian Goodwin on Emergence
Here is Washington Nationals talented outfield prospect Brian Goodwin describing a delicate and beautiful idea:
Today’s Playoff Games
NLDS, Game 5 (2-2 Tie) | San Francisco at Cincinnati | 13:00 ET on TBS
SF: Matt Cain (219.1 IP, 98 xFIP-, 3.8 WAR — although, 6.1 RA9 Wins)
CIN: Mat Latos (209.1 IP, 97 xFIP-, 3.1 WAR)
NLDS, Game 4 (2-1 STL) | St. Louis at Washington | 16:00 ET on TBS
STL: Kyle Lohse (211.0 IP, 101 xFIP-, 3.6 WAR)
WAS: Ross Detwiler (164.1 IP, 111 xFIP-, 1.8 WAR)
ALDS, Game 4 (2-1 NYA) | Baltimore at New York | 19:30 ET on TBS
BAL: Joe Saunders (174.2 IP, 107 xFIP-, 2.5 WAR)
NYA: Phil Hughes (191.1 IP, 105 xFIP-, 1.9 WAR)
ALDS, Game 5 (2-2 Tie) | Detroit at Oakland | 21:30 ET on TNT
DET: Justin Verlander (238.1 IP, 80 xFIP-, 6.8 WAR)
OAK: Jarrod Parker (181.1 IP, 95 xFIP-, 3.7 WAR)
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
I like your leaderboards, Carson. I do, however, wish I could also see some of the more “traditional” stats that go along with them, however, like total HR, maybe triple slash (or at least wOBA), and SB/CS. Maybe there isn’t space for these, but I think it would enhance the overall experience if it was possible. Thanks for your work.