Daily Notes: Ft. Kal Daniels’ Alternate Career Path

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Kal Daniels’ Hastily Calculated and Alternate Career Path
2. Unnecessary Video: Kal Daniels Making a Catch Once
3. SCOUT Leaderboards: Dominican Winter League

Kal Daniels’ Hastily Calculated and Alternate Career Path
As noted in today’s release of the ZiPS projections for the Washington Nationals, Bryce Harper’s closest comparable at the moment, according to ZiPS, is former Reds outfielder Kal Daniels. As also noted in that post, Kal Daniels was a pretty excellent ballplayer between his age-22 and -26 seasons, during which span he posted a 16.9 WAR over 1,970 plate appearances — i.e. over five wins for every 600 plate appearances.

After that, though, injury — and the subsequent ineffectiveness it caused — stopped Daniels’ career rather abruptly, and he was done with major-league baseball after his age-28 season.

“What if,” one is compelled to wonder, “what if Daniels were — instead of to suffer the slings and arrows of multiple knee injuries — what if he were to continue an exactly generic possible career path, where an exactly generic career path would constitute declining by precisely 0.5 WAR per season? And were to average precisely 600 plate appearances for every 162 games? And were to play until he became irrelevant?”

Here is what Kal Daniels’ career would have looked like, in that case, is the exact answer:

Season	Age	PA	WAR
1986	22	207	2.0
1987	23	430	4.5
1988	24	589	5.1
1989	25	218	0.7
1990	26	526	4.6
1991	27	600	5.0
1992	28	600	4.5
1993	29	600	4.0
1994	30	496	2.9
1995	31	533	2.7
1996	32	600	2.5
1997	33	600	2.0
1998	34	600	1.5
1999	35	600	1.0
2000	36	600	0.5
Tot	—	7799	43.5

That career — one which’d produce ca 43-44 wins — is basically like the one Andy Van Slyke had. And Paul O’Neill.

Unnecessary Video: Kal Daniels Making a Catch Once
Here’s video of Kal Daniels making a catch once:

SCOUT Leaderboards: Dominican Winter League
Below are the current SCOUT leaderboards for the Dominican Winter League. (Ages as of July 1st, 2012. Players listed with most recent team. Click here for more on what is SCOUT.)

SCOUT Leaderboard: Dominican Winter League Hitters
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Dominican Winter League. SCOUT+ is calculated using regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates, where 100 is average and above 100 is above average.

Player	Team	Age	Pos	PA	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	SCOUT+
Hector Luna	Phillies	32	3B	204	2.9%	14.2%	14.7%	136
Mauro Gomez	Red Sox	27	1B	212	3.2%	14.2%	20.8%	127
Nelson Perez	Cubs	24	OF	113	2.5%	18.6%	23.4%	127
Jordany Valdespin	Mets	24	2B	111	2.2%	13.2%	14.9%	123
Ricardo Nanita	Blue Jays	31	OF	135	1.3%	12.1%	9.2%	121
Donell Linares	MEX	28	3B	102	2.2%	8.1%	8.8%	121
Oscar Taveras	Cardinals	20	OF	166	2.5%	8.6%	12.7%	118
Miguel Tejada	Orioles	38	SS	150	2.3%	6.9%	8.7%	118
Todd Linden	Giants	32	OF	108	3.5%	13.4%	26.0%	118
Moises Sierra	Blue Jays	23	OF	176	2.8%	10.6%	18.2%	116

SCOUT Leaderboard: Dominican Winter League Hitters (Prospects)
Here is the SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Dominican Winter League, but only populated with players who are 25 or under — i.e. something more like “prospect” age relative to the league.

Player	Team	Age	Pos	PA	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	SCOUT+
Nelson Perez	Cubs	24	OF	113	2.5%	18.6%	23.4%	127
Jordany Valdespin	Mets	24	2B	111	2.2%	13.2%	14.9%	123
Oscar Taveras	Cardinals	20	OF	166	2.5%	8.6%	12.7%	118
Moises Sierra	Blue Jays	23	OF	176	2.8%	10.6%	18.2%	116
Wilin Rosario	Rockies	23	C	40	2.6%	11.1%	18.0%	116
Yan Gomes	Blue Jays	24	OF	64	2.8%	8.9%	19.6%	109
Juan Francisco	Braves	25	3B	139	4.0%	8.9%	26.7%	109
Arismendy Alcantara	Cubs	20	SS	16	2.1%	10.7%	18.3%	108
Kole Calhoun	Angels	24	OF	83	2.3%	11.0%	20.5%	108
Miguel Sano	Twins	19	3B	57	2.8%	10.8%	23.1%	108

SCOUT Leaderboard: Dominican Winter League Pitchers
Below is the current SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Dominican Winter League. SCOUT- is calculated using regressed strikeout and walk rates where 100 is average and below 100 is above average.

Player	Team	Age	G	GS	IP	TBF	xK%	xBB%	SCOUT-
Erick Abreu	Astros	28	21	0	31.2	119	29.2%	8.7%	69
Kyler Newby	Orioles	27	7	7	31.0	128	27.4%	9.1%	75
Tony Pena	Red Sox	31	19	0	23.2	94	27.0%	8.9%	76
Samuel Deduno	Twins	28	6	5	25.2	105	26.9%	10.0%	79
Johan Yan	Rangers	27	21	0	17.2	73	25.6%	9.1%	80
Jose De Paula	Padres	22	14	7	40.0	169	24.9%	8.4%	80
Dustin Richardson	IND	28	18	2	21.0	84	24.8%	8.7%	81
Kelvin De La Cruz	Tigers	23	11	1	15.1	68	24.1%	9.2%	85
Fabio Castro	Athletics	27	12	10	41.2	182	23.1%	8.9%	87
Juan Cruz	Pirates	33	3	0	6.2	24	23.0%	9.2%	88

SCOUT Leaderboard: Dominican Winter League Pitchers (Starters)
Here is the SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Dominican Winter League, but only populated with pitchers who’ve made at least half of their appearances as starts.

Player	Team	Age	G	GS	IP	TBF	xK%	xBB%	SCOUT-
Kyler Newby	Orioles	27	7	7	31.0	128	27.4%	9.1%	75
Samuel Deduno	Twins	28	6	5	25.2	105	26.9%	10.0%	79
Jose De Paula	Padres	22	14	7	40.0	169	24.9%	8.4%	80
Fabio Castro	Athletics	27	12	10	41.2	182	23.1%	8.9%	87
Danny Salazar	Indians	22	5	3	14.0	58	22.7%	9.0%	88
Esmil Rogers	Indians	26	3	3	13.0	53	22.0%	8.9%	90
Josh Outman	Rockies	27	6	6	25.2	111	22.2%	9.4%	90
Aneury Rodriguez	Astros	24	8	8	32.0	135	21.2%	8.4%	91
Randall Delgado	Braves	22	7	6	26.2	115	21.7%	9.1%	91
Stolmy Pimentel	Red Sox	22	8	6	23.0	101	21.4%	8.8%	91