Daily Notes: Greatest Home-Runs Seasons Relative to League

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Greatest Home-Runs Seasons Relative to League
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Greatest Home-Runs Seasons Relative to League
Introduction
After his home run this weekend at Yankee Stadium, Baltimore first baseman Chris Davis now has 33 for the season. With over half the season complete, it would appear as though Davis has a slight probability of surpassing the 61-home-run threshold set by Roger Maris in 1961 and an almost non-extant probability of reaching Barry Bonds‘ record of 73, set in 2001.

With regard to Davis, however, it’s entirely possible that some readers will credit his accomplishments more subtantially than Bonds’ — or Mark McGwire‘s or Sammy Sosa’s, etc. — because Davis’ powerful first half has occurred during an era in which Major League Baseball is testing for certain performance-enhancing drugs. While the author has absolutely no intention of examining to what degree PEDs do or don’t actually enhance performance, concerns about PEDs do reveal an actually interesting point — namely, the degree to which certain eras have signature (some higher, some lower) home-run rates. Indeed, it might be best were we to celebrate those players not with the highest absolute home-run totals, but those with the best home-run rates relative to their peers.

With a view to examining which players have produced the most impressive home-run seasons relative to their peers, the author has first identified the league-average home-run rates (home runs per at-bat, and not plate appearance, for reasons that are mentioned below) for every season since 1876. The author has then divided every qualified player’s seasonal home-run rates (since 1876, as well) by the relevant league-average rate for that year. The result is an index stat, HR+, which measure home-run rate relative to league average, where a higher figure is better.

A pair of tables below contain the relevant results.

Table: Greatest Home-Runs Seasons Relative to League (Since 1876)
By the methodology described above, here are the greatest home-run seasons relative to league since the beginning of major-league baseball:

Rank	Name	Season	AB	HR	HR%	LgHR%	HR+
1	Babe Ruth	1920	457	54	11.8%	0.7%	1578
2	Babe Ruth	1919	432	29	6.7%	0.6%	1121
3	Charley Jones	1879	355	9	2.5%	0.2%	1056
4	Ned Williamson	1884	417	27	6.5%	0.6%	1026
5	Babe Ruth	1927	540	60	11.1%	1.1%	1018
6	Babe Ruth	1921	540	59	10.9%	1.1%	993
7	Dan Brouthers	1881	270	8	3.0%	0.3%	950
8	George Hall	1876	268	5	1.9%	0.2%	938
9	Paul Hines	1878	257	4	1.6%	0.2%	923
10	Babe Ruth	1926	495	47	9.5%	1.0%	921

Table: Greatest Home-Runs Seasons Relative to League (Since 1961)
By the methodology described above, here are the greatest home-run seasons relative to league — in this case, since the start of the expansion era:

Rank	Name	Season	AB	HR	HR%	LgHR%	HR+
1	Barry Bonds	2001	476	73	15.3%	3.3%	467
2	Mike Schmidt	1981	354	31	8.8%	1.9%	464
3	Dave Kingman	1976	474	37	7.8%	1.7%	459
4	Mark McGwire	1998	509	70	13.8%	3.0%	454
5	Hank Aaron	1971	495	47	9.5%	2.2%	433
6	Willie Stargell	1971	511	48	9.4%	2.2%	428
7	Mark McGwire	1992	467	42	9.0%	2.1%	423
8	Mike Schmidt	1980	548	48	8.8%	2.1%	409
9	Kevin Mitchell	1989	543	47	8.7%	2.2%	401
10	Frank Howard	1968	598	44	7.4%	1.8%	401

Five Notes
• While Babe Ruth is famous in every land as one of the sport’s great power hitters, 19th century outfielder Charley Jones is famous in almost none of them (i.e. the lands) — and yet, in 1879, Jones was responsible for over 15% of the 58 home runs hit in the National League. He played for the Boston Red Caps in that city’s South End Grounds — although, five of his home runs were hit in away parks, so the influence of home park factor is likely minimal.

• Mark McGwire and Mike Schmidt both appear twice on the expansion-era leaderboard. Of note regarding Schmidt’s 1981 figures: those came during a strike-shortened season during which only 108 games were played.

• Chris Davis has produced a 357 HR+ this season so far, the 36th-best mark since 1961.

• It should be noted that this methodology accounts zero percent for park factors. Home-run rate relative to overall league has been the author’s only concern — mostly because of how much easier it is to calculate.

• The author has chosen at-bats and not plate appearances as the denominator for home-run rate because employing the latter would actually penalize those batters (like Bonds, for example) who were so terrifically powerful that opposing pitchers refused to throw them strikes.

Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
Minnesota at Tampa Bay | 19:10 ET
Samuel Deduno (49.1 IP, 102 xFIP-, 0.7) faces Roberto Hernandez (96.1 IP, 87 xFIP-, 0.5 WAR). The Rays are currently about a standard deviation above league average both by park-adjusted offensive production relative to league average and park-adjusted home-run rate. Meanwhile, the club’s payroll is a full standard deviation below league average.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Tampa Bay Radio.

Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.5.

Note: the following table is entirely sortable.

Away		SP	Tm.	Gm.	Tm.	SP		Home	Time
Max Scherzer	DET	10	7	8	8	6	CLE	Scott Kazmir	19:05
Jeremy Guthrie	KC	1	6	3	3	4	NYA	Phil Hughes	19:05
Bartolo Colon	OAK	4	6	4	7	3	PIT	Jeff Locke	19:05
Derek Holland	TEX	9	4	6	9	3	BAL	Scott Feldman	19:05
Dan Haren	WAS	6	2	4	1	4	PHI	John Lannan	19:05
Mike Minor	ATL	8	8	6	1	5	MIA	Kevin Slowey	19:10
Samuel Deduno	MIN	3	3	5	10	7	TB	Rob. Hernandez	19:10
Matt Garza	CHN	4	4	4	1	6	CHA	Hector Santiago	20:10
Homer Bailey	CIN	10	3	7	4	5	MIL	Kyle Lohse	20:10
Zack Greinke	LAN	3	2	5	2	10	AZ	Randall Delgado	21:40
Jon Lester	BOS	5	8	7	5	10	SEA	Felix Hernandez	22:10
Tyler Chatwood	COL	6	8	5	7	3	SD	Edinson Volquez	22:10
Matt Harvey	NYN	10	7	8	6	7	SF	Tim Lincecum	22:15

To learn how Pitcher and Team NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.