Daily Notes: Hammel’s Performance Is Kosher
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.
1. Featured Game: New York AL at Baltimore, 19:05 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule
Featured Game: New York AL at Baltimore, 19:05 ET
Of Particular Note Regarding This Game
Of particular note regarding this game is that right-hander Jason Hammel is starting it for Baltimore.
Of Particular Note Regarding Jason Hammel, Specifically
Of particular note regarding Jason Hammel, specifically, is that, after entering the season with a career ERA of 4.99 (about a 111 or 112 ERA-), he’s posted a 2.09 ERA so far this season (50 ERA-).
Also of Note Regarding Jason Hammel, Specifically
Also of note regarding Jason Hammel, specifically, is that he’s been excellent by the defense-independent numbers so far, too, posting a 60 FIP-, 67 xFIP-, and 1.3 WAR — on the strength, naturally, of excellent peripherals (25.5% K, 7.4% BB, 61.0% GB) — through his first six starts and 38.2 innings.
Regarding Those Strikeout and Walk Rates, Where They Rank
Here’s where Hammel’s strikeout and walk rates rank among the league’s 115 qualified starters: 12th and fifth, respectively.
A Short List of People Who Didn’t Foresee Hammel Doing That
The Oracle of Delphi, probably — and all the lesser oracles, too, probably.
Two Lesser Oracles
The Oracle of Schenectady, for example — and the Oracle of Fresno, for other example.
Pitching for the Yankees
Pitching for the Yankees is Ivan Nova (37.2 IP, 90 xFIP-, 0.2 WAR).
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast
Per the results of our offseason crowdsourcing project, FanGraphs readers prefer Baltimore Television (link).
Other Notable Games
San Diego at Washington | 19:05 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
Padres right-hander Tim Stauffer makes his season debut after missing the first month-plus of the season with a triceps injury. Here’s his line from last season: 185.2 IP, 16.5% K, 6.8% BB, 51.8% GB, 3.71 xFIP, 96 xFIP-, 1.0 WAR. Here’s his Steamer projection from before the season: 158.0 IP, 6.07 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, 0.80 HR/9, 3.95 FIP.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: San Diego.
Chicago NL at St. Louis | 19:05 ET
Ryan Dempster, who starts for the Cubs, has posted a 76 xFIP- through five starts and 35.1 innings. His season-best (since 2002, at least) is an 85 xFIP-, in both 2005 (predominantly as a reliever) and 2008.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Chicago NL.
Arizona at Los Angeles NL | 22:10 ET
Of the 141 pitchers to’ve thrown 20-plus innings as a starter, Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw — who starts tonight for the Dodgers — is one of only seven pitchers (along with Stephen Strasburg, A.J. Burnett, Jeff Samardzija, CC Sabathia, R.A. Dickey, and Cole Hamels) to’ve posted a NERD of 10. (Regarding what NERD is, continue reading.)
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL.
Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.3.
Regard, a magnificent and sortable table:
| Away | SP | Tm. | Gm. | Tm. | SP | Home | Time | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Dempster | CHN | 8 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 6 | STL | Jake Westbrook | 19:05 |
| Lucas Harrell | HOU | 2 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 6 | PHI | Joe Blanton | 19:05 |
| Ivan Nova | NYA | 7 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 9 | BAL | Jason Hammel | 19:05 |
| Tim Stauffer* | SD | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | WAS | Ross Detwiler | 19:05 |
| Jeff Niemann | TB | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | TOR | Brandon Morrow | 19:07 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 5 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 | ATL | Randall Delgado | 19:10 |
| Yovani Gallardo | MIL | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | NYN | Miguel Batista* | 19:10 |
| Brad Lincoln* | PIT | 6 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 8 | MIA | Anibal Sanchez | 19:10 |
| Jason Vargas | SEA | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | BOS | Jon Lester | 19:10 |
| Bruce Chen | KC | 4 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 4 | TEX | Scott Feldman* | 20:05 |
| Jeanmar Gomez | CLE | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | MIN | Carl Pavano | 20:10 |
| Drew Smyly | DET | 8 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 2 | CHA | John Danks | 20:10 |
| Tyson Ross | OAK | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 6 | LAA | Dan Haren | 22:05 |
| Ian Kennedy | AZ | 5 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 10 | LAN | Clayton Kershaw | 22:10 |
| Christ. Friedrich* | COL | 8 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 2 | SF | Ryan Vogelsong | 22:15 |
To learn more about Pitcher and Team NERD scores click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
I like your daily notes and predictions for enjoyable games, but I feel that you should include a weather metric to your process. The Orioles game has an 80% chance of rain tonight. Waiting on a rain delay is the opposite of entertaining. Hammel also added a 2-seam fastball to his repertoire, which may be helping his ground ball rate and getting more swings and misses.