Daily Notes: Let’s Project Basically the Entire Brewers Rotation
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.
1. FAN Projection Targets: Basically Every Brewers Starter
2. Action GIF: Mark Rogers’ Slider
3. SCOUT Leaderboards: Australian Baseball League
FAN Projection Targets: Basically Every Brewers Starter
As is made apparent by the very recently released 2013 ZiPS projections for the Milwaukee Brewers, the starting rotation for said team contains a considerable amount of uncertainty — due either to a change of roles in the not-very-distant past (Marco Estrada, Mike Fiers) or injury (Chris Narveson, Mark Rogers).
In situations like this, where information not included in the ZiPS algorithm might be of some import regarding a specific player, it’s possible that the Wisdom of the Crowds might have some advantage in producing an able projection for said player.
To that end, the author encourages the readership to complete FAN Projection ballots for the following five pitchers — all candidates for Milwaukee’s rotation in 2013.
Before casting a ballot, don’t forget this note from FanGraphs CEO and founder Appelman:
Please note that everything this year is a rate stat. You’re projecting 2B+3B, HR, SB, and Fielding as a measure of 150 games (basically a full season). The player’s previous stats are shown per 150 games in the projection ballot too. This will make changing playing time projections much easier as you’ll only have to change the games played portion.
Allez!:
Player: Marco Estrada, 29, RHP
2012 Line: 138.1 IP, 9.30 K/9, 1.89 BB/9, 1.17 HR/9, 3.35 FIP at MLB
Notes: Before 2012, only nine of Estrada’s 65 major-league appearances had been in a starting capacity. He flourished in that role last season, however, somehow parlaying his 90 mph fastball into one of the league’s best pitches by linear-weights.
Player: Mike Fiers, 28, RHP
2012 Line: 127.2 IP, 9.52 K/9, 2.54 BB/9, 0.85 HR/9, 3.09 FIP at MLB
Notes: Fiers’ profile is not wholly different from Estrada’s — at least insofar as neither is regarded as having excellent raw stuff, but both managed to post strikeout-to-walk ratios considerably over 3.0 in their first real and respective seasons as a starter.
Player: Chris Narveson, 31, LHP
2012 Line: 9.0 IP, 5.00 K/9, 4.00 BB/9, 2.00 HR/9, 6.21 FIP at MLB
Notes: After two entirely serviceable years at the back end of Milwaukee’s rotation, Narveson missed basically all of 2012 with a tear of the rotator cuff — from surgery and rehabilitation on which he’s experienced no setbacks and expected to be ready for spring training.
Player: Mark Rogers, 27, RHP
2012 Line: 39.0 IP, 9.46 K/9, 3.23 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9, 3.81 FIP at MLB
Notes: Joining the rotation after the departure of Zack Greinke to the Angels via trade, Rogers overcame a 2011 basically an entire career marred by injuries to post slightly above-average numbers in seven major-league starts.
Player: Wily Peralta, 24, RHP
2012 Line: 29.0 IP, 7.14 K/9, 3.41 BB/9, 0.00 HR/9, 2.65 FIP at MLB
Notes: A fixture near or at the top of Brewers prospect lists for four or so years now, Peralta made his major-league debut in 2012, making five starts in six total appearances during a strong second half for the team.
Action GIF: Mark Rogers’ Slider
Here’s a GIF (from a late-August piece on his entire repertoire) of Mark Rogers’ probably excellent slider:
SCOUT Leaderboards: Australian Baseball League
Below are the current SCOUT leaderboards for the Australian Baseball League. (Ages as of July 1st, 2012. Players listed with most recent team. Click here for more on what is SCOUT.)
SCOUT Leaderboard: Australian Baseball League Hitters
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Australian Baseball League. SCOUT+ is calculated using regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates, where 100 is average and above 100 is above average.
| Player | Team | Age | Pos | PA | xHR% | xBB% | xK% | SCOUT+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Buschini | IND | 25 | 2B | 136 | 4.1% | 9.0% | 15.2% | 134 |
| Chris Snelling | N/A | 30 | RF | 84 | 2.1% | 16.9% | 15.5% | 133 |
| Ji-Man Choi | Mariners | 21 | 1B | 127 | 2.8% | 13.4% | 15.1% | 132 |
| Kody Hightower | N/A | 26 | SS | 143 | 2.4% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 131 |
| Mitch Dening | IND | 23 | CF | 148 | 2.7% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 130 |
| Trent D’Antonio | N/A | 26 | 3B | 90 | 2.7% | 12.1% | 15.3% | 126 |
| Michael Ohlman | Orioles | 21 | 1B | 138 | 3.1% | 9.4% | 15.6% | 122 |
| Nathan Melendres | Mariners | 22 | CF | 109 | 3.0% | 8.7% | 14.8% | 120 |
| Carlo Testa | Royals | 25 | RF | 154 | 2.3% | 12.6% | 17.5% | 118 |
| Angus Roeger | N/A | 22 | RF | 118 | 3.9% | 11.8% | 26.9% | 116 |
SCOUT Leaderboard: Australian Baseball League Pitchers
Below is the current SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Australian Baseball League. SCOUT- is calculated using regressed strikeout and walk rates where 100 is average and below 100 is above average.
| Player | Team | Age | G | GS | IP | TBF | xK% | xBB% | SCOUT- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Smith | IND | 23 | 9 | 9 | 50.2 | 194 | 33.6% | 7.2% | 49 |
| Chris Oxspring | N/A | 35 | 10 | 10 | 66.2 | 277 | 27.1% | 7.1% | 68 |
| Matthew Williams | N/A | 25 | 17 | 0 | 19.0 | 75 | 27.8% | 8.8% | 71 |
| Sean Toler | IND | 25 | 17 | 0 | 19.1 | 83 | 26.7% | 9.0% | 75 |
| James Schult | IND | 22 | 5 | 5 | 24.2 | 108 | 26.9% | 9.3% | 75 |
| Anthony Claggett | IND | 27 | 10 | 10 | 60.1 | 251 | 23.9% | 6.8% | 77 |
| Dustin Loggins | IND | 21 | 15 | 0 | 15.2 | 69 | 25.3% | 9.6% | 81 |
| Zachary Arneson | Yankees | 23 | 14 | 0 | 16.0 | 58 | 24.7% | 9.3% | 82 |
| Steve Kent | N/A | 23 | 11 | 0 | 11.2 | 48 | 24.0% | 8.7% | 82 |
| Todd Van Steensel | N/A | 21 | 12 | 0 | 14.2 | 65 | 25.1% | 9.9% | 82 |
SCOUT Leaderboard: Australian Baseball League Pitchers (Starters)
Here is the SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Australian Baseball League, but only populated with pitchers who’ve made at least half of their appearances as starts.
| Player | Team | Age | G | GS | IP | TBF | xK% | xBB% | SCOUT- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Smith | IND | 23 | 9 | 9 | 50.2 | 194 | 33.6% | 7.2% | 49 |
| Chris Oxspring | N/A | 35 | 10 | 10 | 66.2 | 277 | 27.1% | 7.1% | 68 |
| James Schult | IND | 22 | 5 | 5 | 24.2 | 108 | 26.9% | 9.3% | 75 |
| Anthony Claggett | IND | 27 | 10 | 10 | 60.1 | 251 | 23.9% | 6.8% | 77 |
| Brian Grening | IND | 27 | 10 | 10 | 66.1 | 269 | 21.2% | 6.5% | 84 |
| Virgil Vasquez | IND | 30 | 9 | 9 | 61.2 | 254 | 21.7% | 7.5% | 85 |
| Tim Atherton | Twins | 22 | 7 | 6 | 32.1 | 128 | 22.2% | 8.1% | 86 |
| Chuck Lofgren | IND | 26 | 9 | 8 | 50.1 | 212 | 22.6% | 9.1% | 87 |
| Hirotaka Koishi | NPB | 25 | 7 | 7 | 35.1 | 158 | 24.0% | 10.5% | 87 |
| Adam Bright | IND | 27 | 5 | 4 | 24.1 | 102 | 22.2% | 9.1% | 88 |
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
A note on Mike Fiers — I know there’s a lot of chatter about his 88MPH fastball, but before you go to far, swing on over to Jered Weaver’s page and check out his avg fastball velocity for ’12.
I would love to see a side by side video of each of their motions — bet it would be nearly identical.
Food for thought