Daily Notes: Notable Performances of the Texas League So Far

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Three Notable Texas League Peformances
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: Double-A Texas League
3. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
4. Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages

Three Notable Texas League Peformances
The leaderboards for the Double-A Texas League are below. Here are brief notes on three players from those leaderboards — like who they are mostly, for example.

• Outfielder Randal Grichuk is most commonly known as the player who was selected immediately before Mike Trout. While he’s developed more slowly, (a) so has every other player and (b) hitting well at Double-A as a 21-year-old is a decidedly encouraging sign.

• Cardinals minor leaguer Mike O’Neill is both (a) corner outfielder with almost no power and (b) playing at Double-A in his age-25 season. Still, his 78:26 walk-to-strikeout ratio last season in 520 plate appearances between High- and Double-A last season is impressive. He currently has a 5:1 walk-to-strikeout ratio — nearly sustainable, one might assume, given his numbers from last seaosn.

• A 14th-round pick by San Diego out of the University of Oklahoma in 2011, right-hander Burch Smith posted a 137:27 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 128.2 innings last season in the High-A California League. He recently touched 98 mph on his fastball, according to MLB.com’s Corey Brock — harder than the 95 at which he seemed to top out during a start from last July recorded by Bullpen Banter’s Steve Fiorindo.

SCOUT Leaderboards: Double-A Texas League
Previously considered: International League (April 10) / Pacific Coast League (April 11) / Eastern League (April 12) / Southern League (April 16).

Below are the present SCOUT hitting and pitching leaderboards for the Double-A Texas League.

“What is a SCOUT leaderboard, gentleman author?” perhaps a person is asking somewhere — to which question that same author has provided a (hopefully) reasonable answer here. In brief, however, it’s this: an attempt to use our knowledge of certain metrics, and at what sample sizes they become reliable, to measure run production and prevention in instances where small samples prevail.

Below, as I say, are those leaderboards for the Double-A Texas League. (Note: statistics current as of Tuesday.)

SCOUT Leaderboard: Texas League Hitters (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Double-A Texas League. SCOUT+ combines regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates in a FIP-like equation to produce a result not unlike wRC+, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all Texas League hitters) and above 100 is above average. xHR%, xBB%, and xK% stand for expected home run, walk, and strikeout rate, respectively.

Player	Team	Age	PA	HR	BB	K	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	SCOUT+
Austin Wates	Astros (AA)	24	50	1	10	5	1.9%	11.1%	17.3%	116
Alex Buchholz	Rangers (AA)	25	36	2	1	0	2.4%	7.2%	16.0%	112
Randal Grichuk	Angels (AA)	21	39	1	6	3	2.0%	9.6%	17.5%	112
Anthony Aliotti	Athletics (AA)	26	53	1	11	11	1.9%	11.5%	20.9%	110
Mike O’Neill	Cardinals (AA)	25	47	0	5	1	1.6%	8.8%	15.1%	110
Brett Nicholas	Rangers (AA)	24	45	2	4	6	2.3%	8.4%	18.7%	110
Henry Wrigley	Rockies (AA)	26	37	3	2	7	2.7%	7.7%	20.5%	109
Rolando Gomez	Angels (AA)	24	31	2	3	5	2.4%	8.4%	20.0%	108
Ryan Strausborger	Rangers (AA)	25	37	2	3	6	2.4%	8.2%	19.8%	107
Guilder Rodriguez	Rangers (AA)	29	36	1	2	2	2.0%	7.7%	17.3%	107

SCOUT Leaderboard: Texas League Hitters (Age 23 and Under)
Here are the top-10 batters of the Double-A Texas League who might still, because of their age, be considered prospects — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player	Team	Age	PA	HR	BB	K	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	SCOUT+
Randal Grichuk	Angels (AA)	21	39	1	6	3	2.0%	9.6%	17.5%	112
Everett Williams	Padres (AA)	22	38	0	7	5	1.7%	10.1%	19.0%	107
Enrique Hernandez	Astros (AA)	21	38	1	5	6	2.0%	9.1%	19.7%	107
Reymond Fuentes	Padres (AA)	22	50	2	4	9	2.3%	8.1%	20.0%	106
Jefry Marte	Athletics (AA)	22	47	0	9	9	1.6%	10.8%	20.4%	105
Taylor Lindsey	Angels (AA)	21	38	0	5	4	1.7%	9.1%	18.4%	105
Jiovanni Mier	Astros (AA)	22	45	1	7	10	2.0%	9.9%	21.4%	105
Jett Bandy	Angels (AA)	23	30	0	1	1	1.7%	7.5%	17.5%	103
Chris Bisson	Padres (AA)	23	42	0	7	9	1.7%	10.0%	21.1%	102
Darwin Perez	Athletics (AA)	23	37	0	6	8	1.7%	9.7%	21.2%	101

SCOUT Leaderboard: Texas League Pitchers (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Double-A Texas League. SCOUT- combines regressed strikeout and walk rates in a kwERA-like equation to produce a number not unlike ERA-, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all Texas League pitchers) and below 100 is better than average. xK% and xBB% stand for expected strikeout and walk rate, respectively.

Player	Team	Age	G	GS	IP	TBF	K	BB	xK%	xBB%	SCOUT-
Kevin Siegrist	Cardinals (AA)	23	4	0	6.0	22	11	2	25.3%	8.2%	86
Keith Butler	Cardinals (AA)	24	4	0	4.0	14	9	1	25.0%	8.2%	87
Mike Piazza	Angels (AA)	26	4	2	12.0	51	17	5	25.2%	8.3%	87
Burch Smith	Padres (AA)	23	2	2	11.0	38	13	1	24.4%	7.8%	88
Colt Hynes	Padres (AA)	28	5	0	6.0	22	9	0	23.9%	7.9%	89
Paul Smyth	Athletics (AA)	26	4	0	7.0	29	10	0	23.6%	7.8%	90
Carlos Pimentel	Rangers (AA)	23	3	2	11.0	46	14	3	23.9%	8.1%	90
Yordano Ventura	Royals (AA)	22	2	2	10.0	37	12	2	23.8%	8.0%	90
Randy Henry	Rangers (AA)	23	3	0	6.1	24	9	0	23.6%	7.8%	90
Nick Tropeano	Astros (AA)	22	3	2	14.0	55	15	2	23.3%	7.7%	91

SCOUT Leaderboard: Texas League Pitchers (Starters Only)
Here are the top-10 pitchers in the Double-A Texas League who have made at least half of their appearances as starts — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player	Team	Age	G	GS	IP	TBF	K	BB	xK%	xBB%	SCOUT-
Mike Piazza	Angels (AA)	26	4	2	12.0	51	17	5	25.2%	8.3%	87
Burch Smith	Padres (AA)	23	2	2	11.0	38	13	1	24.4%	7.8%	88
Carlos Pimentel	Rangers (AA)	23	3	2	11.0	46	14	3	23.9%	8.1%	90
Yordano Ventura	Royals (AA)	22	2	2	10.0	37	12	2	23.8%	8.0%	90
Nick Tropeano	Astros (AA)	22	3	2	14.0	55	15	2	23.3%	7.7%	91
Ryan Feierabend	Rangers (AA)	27	3	3	15.0	63	16	2	22.9%	7.6%	92
Asher Wojciechowski	Astros (AA)	24	3	2	14.0	50	14	4	23.3%	8.2%	92
Scott McGregor	Cardinals (AA)	26	2	2	11.0	45	13	4	23.4%	8.3%	92
Boone Whiting	Cardinals (AA)	23	2	2	11.0	41	11	2	22.6%	7.9%	94
Neil Ramirez	Rangers (AA)	24	2	2	9.1	36	11	6	23.3%	8.8%	94

Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
St. Louis at Pittsburgh | 19:05 ET
Through three starts, Pittsburgh’s A.J. Burnett has posted the league’s third-highest strikeout rate among 96 qualified starters, at 36.5% — this relative to the ca. 20% marks at which he’s generally sat over the previous four years. There’s no indication that he’s changed his pitch mix at all, nor does he seem to be throwing demonstrably harder. Of note: much of the added value appears to be coming from his curveball. Burnett faces Shelby Miller (12.1 IP, 3.25 xFIP), who is young and handsome and fast and pretty and can’t possibly be beat is unlikely to be beat very often.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: St. Louis Radio.

Tampa Bay at Baltimore | 19:05 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
Matt Moore (11.1 IP, 3.76 xFIP) faces Chris Tillman (9.0 IP, 4.62 xFIP).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Tampa Bay Radio.

Detroit at Seattle | 22:10 ET
It’s unfortunate that this game — which features the very talented Max Scherzer (11.0 IP, 2.53 xFIP) and the also very talented Felix Hernandez (20.2 IP, 3.93 xFIP) — will be played in front of the Safeco center-field camera. Set rather far off to the center, said camera is less likely to document the Real Art taking place on that stadium’s mound.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Detroit Radio.

Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages
Note: the very proprietary and also critically acclaimed NERD game scores will become available again at the end of April/beginning of May.

Here — for purposes entirely of entertainment and not for gambling, which is a Scourge of Propriety — are all of today’s games with moneyline odds (from relatively “sharp” sportsbook Pinnacle Sports) translated into projected winning percentages (and adjusted to account for the vigorish).

Games are listed in Eastern Time, as the author has recently bothered to learn how to convert time zones in Excel. Game presented in order of (a) National League and then (b) American League and, finally, then (c) interleague play.

***Note: because no odds were available for them on Tuesday night, the Texas-Chicago NL (20:05 ET, Justin Grimm vs. Carlos Villanueva) and New York NL-Colorado (20:40 ET, Jeremy Hefner vs. Jon Garland) games are omitted from the following.***

Game	Teams	Starters	Line	Win%
19:05	St. Louis Cardinals	Shelby Miller	1.81	54.1%
ET	Pittsburgh Pirates	A.J. Burnett	2.14	45.9%
—	—	—	—	—
19:10	Philadelphia Phillies	John Lannan	2.20	44.6%
ET	Cincinnati Reds	Mike Leake	1.77	55.4%
—	—	—	—	—
19:10	Washington Nationals	Ross Detwiler	1.61	60.8%
ET	Miami Marlins	Ricky Nolasco	2.50	39.2%
—	—	—	—	—
20:10	San Francisco Giants	Ryan Vogelsong	2.12	46.3%
ET	Milwaukee Brewers	Kyle Lohse	1.83	53.7%
—	—	—	—	—
22:10	San Diego Padres	Tyson Ross	3.28	29.9%
ET	Los Angeles Dodgers	Clayton Kershaw	1.40	70.1%
—	—	—	—	—
15:35	Houston Astros	Bud Norris	2.56	38.3%
ET	Oakland Athletics	Bartolo Colon	1.59	61.7%
—	—	—	—	—
19:05	Chicago White Sox	Jose Quintana	2.18	45.0%
ET	Toronto Blue Jays	J.A. Happ	1.78	55.0%
—	—	—	—	—
19:05	Boston Red Sox	Alfredo Aceves	2.23	44.0%
ET	Cleveland Indians	Justin Masterson	1.75	56.0%
—	—	—	—	—
19:05	Tampa Bay Rays	Matt Moore	1.86	52.6%
ET	Baltimore Orioles	Chris Tillman	2.07	47.4%
—	—	—	—	—
20:10	LAA Angels	Tommy Hanson	1.78	55.2%
ET	Minnesota Twins	Vance Worley	2.19	44.8%
—	—	—	—	—
22:10	Detroit Tigers	Max Scherzer	2.01	48.8%
ET	Seattle Mariners	Felix Hernandez	1.92	51.2%
—	—	—	—	—
12:10	Kansas City Royals	Wade Davis	2.65	37.0%
ET	Atlanta Braves	Mike Minor	1.56	63.0%
—	—	—	—	—
19:05	Arizona Diamondbacks	Wade Miley	2.36	41.5%
ET	New York Yankees	CC Sabathia	1.68	58.5%