Daily Notes: Saturday’s Games Considered for Your Pleasure
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.
1. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
2. Barely Helpful Footage: Ervin Santana’s Slider
3. Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages
Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
Cleveland at Kansas City | 19:10 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
Dayton Moore’s somewhat mysterious confidence in Ervin Santana has been justified thus far, as the right-hander has posted an 86 xFIP- and 0.5 WAR and 0.9 RA/9 WAR (that is, WAR based not on FIP but on runs allowed) through four starts. Santana’s swinging-strike rate has been about two percentage points above his career average so far — and much of that seems due to his slider. Always his best pitch by pitch-type value, Santana’s slider has been even better than usual, worth about 3.5 runs above league average for every hundred thrown. He’s also throwing it 40% of the time, which is rather often, actually.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio
Los Angeles AL at Seattle | 21:10 ET
It’s reasonable to say that tonight’s starter Felix Hernandez is a pleasure — both for his ability to prevent runs and also for his method of so doing. Anyone choosing to watch this game must deal with two Impediments to Amusement, however: both the Mariners center-field camera (which is less than ideal for watching Hernandez) and the Mariners offense (which is a cauldron of disappointment).
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Seattle Radio, Perhaps
Barely Helpful Footage: Ervin Santana’s Slider
Here’s a barely helpful GIF of Ervin Santana’s very effective slider, from his most recent start, against Boston:
Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages
Note: the very proprietary and also critically acclaimed NERD game scores will become available again on Monday, April 29.
Here — for purposes entirely of entertainment and not for gambling, which is a Scourge of Propriety — are all of today’s games with moneyline odds (from relatively “sharp” sportsbook Pinnacle Sports) translated into projected winning percentages (and adjusted to account for the vigorish).
Games are listed in Eastern Time, and presented as they appear at Pinnacle — which appears to be in order of (a) National League and then (b) American League and, finally, then (c) interleague play.
| Game | Teams | Starters | IP | xFIP- | WAR | —– | Line | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:05 | Philadelphia Phillies | Jonathan Pettibone | 5.1 | 54 | -0.1 | | | 2.29 | 42.8% |
| ET | New York Mets | Shaun Marcum | N/A | N/A | N/A | | | 1.71 | 57.2% |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 13:05 | Cincinnati Reds | Mike Leake | 26.0 | 107 | 0.1 | | | 1.95 | 50.2% |
| ET | Washington Nationals | Dan Haren | 18.1 | 129 | -0.2 | | | 1.97 | 49.8% |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 16:15 | Pittsburgh Pirates | A.J. Burnett | 29.0 | 67 | 0.7 | | | 2.07 | 47.4% |
| ET | St. Louis Cardinals | Jake Westbrook | 21.2 | 139 | 0.1 | | | 1.86 | 52.6% |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 19:10 | Chicago Cubs | Travis Wood | 26.0 | 117 | 0.5 | | | 1.87 | 52.4% |
| ET | Miami Marlins | Alex Sanabia | 23.0 | 153 | -0.3 | | | 2.06 | 47.6% |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 20:10 | Colorado Rockies | Jeff Francis | 16.0 | 113 | 0.1 | | | 2.47 | 39.7% |
| ET | Arizona Diamondbacks | Wade Miley | 26.0 | 89 | 0.7 | | | 1.63 | 60.3% |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 20:40 | San Francisco Giants | Barry Zito | 23.2 | 116 | 0.2 | | | 1.89 | 52.0% |
| ET | San Diego Padres | Eric Stults | 23.0 | 100 | 0.2 | | | 2.04 | 48.0% |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 21:10 | Milwaukee Brewers | Wily Peralta | 22.2 | 107 | -0.1 | | | 2.20 | 44.6% |
| ET | Los Angeles Dodgers | Stephen Fife | 4.2 | 72 | 0.0 | | | 1.77 | 55.4% |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 16:05 | Baltimore Orioles | Chris Tillman | 20.2 | 115 | 0.1 | | | 2.34 | 41.9% |
| ET | Oakland Athletics | A.J. Griffin | 24.0 | 118 | 0.2 | | | 1.69 | 58.1% |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 16:05 | Toronto Blue Jays | J.A. Happ | 22.0 | 120 | 0.4 | | | 2.46 | 39.9% |
| ET | New York Yankees | CC Sabathia | 35.0 | 92 | 0.6 | | | 1.63 | 60.1% |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 16:10 | Texas Rangers | Derek Holland | 27.2 | 91 | 0.8 | | | 1.71 | 57.4% |
| ET | Minnesota Twins | Pedro Hernandez | 10.1 | 125 | -0.1 | | | 2.30 | 42.6% |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 19:10 | Houston Astros | Brad Peacock | 18.0 | 130 | -0.3 | | | 3.40 | 28.9% |
| ET | Boston Red Sox | Felix Doubront | 16.2 | 80 | 0.4 | | | 1.38 | 71.1% |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 19:10 | Tampa Bay Rays | Matt Moore | 26.0 | 92 | 0.5 | | | 1.86 | 52.6% |
| ET | Chicago White Sox | Gavin Floyd | 21.2 | 80 | 0.3 | | | 2.07 | 47.4% |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 19:10 | Cleveland Indians | Scott Kazmir | 3.1 | 156 | -0.2 | | | 2.44 | 40.2% |
| ET | Kansas City Royals | Ervin Santana | 29.0 | 86 | 0.5 | | | 1.64 | 59.8% |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 21:10 | LAA Angels | Joe Blanton | 20.2 | 126 | -0.4 | | | 2.45 | 40.1% |
| ET | Seattle Mariners | Felix Hernandez | 34.2 | 68 | 1.1 | | | 1.64 | 59.9% |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 13:05 | Atlanta Braves | Kris Medlen | 25.0 | 110 | 0.4 | | | 1.89 | 52.0% |
| ET | Detroit Tigers | Rick Porcello | 13.0 | 121 | -0.2 | | | 2.04 | 48.0% |
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Your considerations are indeed my pleasure, good sir. Hope you get paid time-and-a-half for the weekend posts… It’s great to have new content coming out on the days when I actually have time to read it.
Amen, brother!