Daily Notes: SCOUT Leaderboards for the Intl. League, Already
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.
1. SCOUT Leaderboards for the International League, Already
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages
SCOUT Leaderboards for the International League, Already
On Monday, in the Notes, we considered the earliest statistical returns from the majors, according to SCOUT. What follows is a very similar thing to that, except for the Triple-A International League.
“What actually is SCOUT?” a reasonable person might ask — to which question the author has provided a (hopefully) reasonable answer here. In brief, however, it’s this: an attempt to use our knowledge of certain metrics, and at what sample sizes they become reliable, to measure run production/prevention in instances where small samples are all that’s available.
Below are those same leaderboards, as I say, for the Triple-A International League.
SCOUT Leaderboard: International League Hitters (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Triple-A International League. SCOUT+ combines regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates in a FIP-like equation to produce a result not unlike wRC+, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all International League hitters) and above 100 is above average. xHR%, xBB%, and xK% stand for expected home run, walk, and strikeout rate, respectively.
| Player | Team | Age | PA | HR | BB | K | xHR% | xBB% | xK% | SCOUT+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Hessman | Reds (AAA) | 35 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 3.9% | 10.9% | 22.5% | 119 |
| Andy LaRoche | Blue Jays (AAA) | 29 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3.2% | 9.9% | 19.9% | 114 |
| Chris Colabello | Twins (AAA) | 29 | 26 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3.2% | 10.4% | 21.1% | 112 |
| Brandon Snyder | Red Sox (AAA) | 26 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2.8% | 10.3% | 19.6% | 111 |
| Zach Walters | Nationals (AAA) | 23 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 3.5% | 9.8% | 22.9% | 111 |
| Josh Phegley | White Sox (AAA) | 25 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2.9% | 10.6% | 20.3% | 111 |
| Luis Jimenez | Blue Jays (AAA) | 31 | 26 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2.9% | 10.4% | 20.4% | 110 |
| Mark Hamilton | Red Sox (AAA) | 28 | 21 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2.6% | 12.1% | 21.8% | 109 |
| Brandon Guyer | Rays (AAA) | 27 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 3.2% | 10.0% | 22.8% | 108 |
| Mike Costanzo | Nationals (AAA) | 29 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2.9% | 10.7% | 22.1% | 108 |
SCOUT Leaderboard: International League Hitters (Age 24 and Under)
Here are the top-10 batters of the Triple-A International League who might still, because of their age, be considered prospects — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.
| Player | Team | Age | PA | HR | BB | K | xHR% | xBB% | xK% | SCOUT+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Walters | Nationals (AAA) | 23 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 3.5% | 9.8% | 22.9% | 111 |
| Oswaldo Arcia | Twins (AAA) | 22 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2.9% | 10.5% | 22.0% | 107 |
| Carlos Sanchez | White Sox (AAA) | 21 | 24 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 2.2% | 11.5% | 20.0% | 106 |
| Chris Marrero | Nationals (AAA) | 24 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2.6% | 10.7% | 21.4% | 105 |
| Corban Joseph | Yankees (AAA) | 24 | 28 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2.2% | 11.3% | 20.1% | 105 |
| Zoilo Almonte | Yankees (AAA) | 24 | 28 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 2.2% | 12.3% | 22.8% | 103 |
| Cesar Hernandez | Phillies (AAA) | 23 | 28 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2.2% | 9.8% | 19.4% | 102 |
| Hak-Ju Lee | Rays (AAA) | 22 | 20 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2.2% | 11.2% | 22.0% | 102 |
| L.J. Hoes | Orioles (AAA) | 23 | 22 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2.2% | 10.6% | 21.0% | 102 |
| Anthony Gose | Blue Jays (AAA) | 22 | 28 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2.2% | 9.8% | 20.1% | 100 |
SCOUT Leaderboard: International League Pitchers (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Triple-A International League. SCOUT- combines regressed strikeout and walk rates in a kwERA-like equation to produce a number not unlike ERA-, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all International League pitchers) and below 100 is better than average. xK% and xBB% stand for expected strikeout and walk rate, respectively.
| Player | Team | Age | IP | TBF | K | BB | xK% | xBB% | SCOUT- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Cingrani | Reds (AAA) | 23 | 12.1 | 41 | 21 | 2 | 30.2% | 9.8% | 76 |
| Chris Carpenter | Red Sox (AAA) | 27 | 4.1 | 21 | 10 | 2 | 25.8% | 10.2% | 90 |
| Mark Montgomery | Yankees (AAA) | 22 | 5.0 | 19 | 9 | 0 | 25.4% | 9.8% | 90 |
| Vin Mazzaro | Pirates (AAA) | 26 | 5.0 | 17 | 8 | 0 | 25.1% | 9.9% | 91 |
| Pedro Beato | Red Sox (AAA) | 26 | 4.2 | 17 | 8 | 1 | 25.1% | 10.1% | 92 |
| Deunte Heath | White Sox (AAA) | 27 | 3.0 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 24.6% | 10.0% | 93 |
| Vidal Nuno | Yankees (AAA) | 25 | 11.2 | 42 | 12 | 0 | 24.0% | 9.4% | 93 |
| Caleb Thielbar | Twins (AAA) | 26 | 5.1 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 24.3% | 10.0% | 93 |
| Sam Demel | Yankees (AAA) | 27 | 3.2 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 24.5% | 10.3% | 94 |
| Duke Welker | Pirates (AAA) | 27 | 4.1 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 24.2% | 9.9% | 94 |
SCOUT Leaderboard: International League Pitchers (Starters Only)
Here are the top-10 pitchers in the Triple-A International League who have made at least half of their appearances as starts — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.
| Player | Team | Age | IP | TBF | K | BB | xK% | xBB% | SCOUT- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Cingrani | Reds (AAA) | 23 | 12.1 | 41 | 21 | 2 | 30.2% | 9.8% | 76 |
| Vidal Nuno | Yankees (AAA) | 25 | 11.2 | 42 | 12 | 0 | 24.0% | 9.4% | 93 |
| Matt Zaleski | White Sox (AAA) | 31 | 6.0 | 23 | 8 | 1 | 24.2% | 10.0% | 94 |
| Josh Stinson | Orioles (AAA) | 25 | 5.0 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 23.9% | 10.0% | 95 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals (AAA) | 26 | 6.0 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 23.9% | 10.2% | 95 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays (AAA) | 23 | 6.2 | 26 | 8 | 2 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 95 |
| Jair Jurrjens | Orioles (AAA) | 27 | 6.0 | 21 | 7 | 2 | 23.8% | 10.2% | 96 |
| Zach Clark | Orioles (AAA) | 29 | 4.1 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 23.4% | 9.8% | 96 |
| Fernando Nieve | Indians (AAA) | 30 | 6.0 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 23.7% | 10.2% | 96 |
| Zach Stewart | White Sox (AAA) | 26 | 4.0 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 23.4% | 10.0% | 96 |
Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
Toronto at Detroit | 13:05 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
Mark Buehrle (5.1 IP, 5.45 xFIP in his first start) faces Rick Porcello (5.1 IP, 5.63 xFIP). The latter posted a 21:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 24.0 spring innings, but failed to approximate anything like that in his first start of the season at Minnesota, recording a 2:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio while facing 24 batters.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.
Tampa Bay at Texas | 14:05 ET
Always, with regard to Rays left-hander Matt Moore, one is wondering “When will the Matt Moore of reality begin to approximate the one in my dreams?” And while the answer to that question is “Never” — because, unlike in your dreams, Matt Moore will never make tenderest love to a young Elizabeth Taylor in the first and only pornographic film directed by Nazi propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels — Matt Moore was excellent in his season debut against Cleveland (box), recording a 2.48 single-game xFIP in 6.0 innings. He’s opposed by other left-hander Derek Holland (7.0 IP, 3.66 xFIP).
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.
Pawtucket vs. Lehigh Valley | 19:05 ET
These are the Triple-A affiliates for Boston and Philadelphia, respectively. The game features right-hander Allen Webster for Pawtucket (ranked fourth among all Red Sox prospects by Marc Hulet) and Jonathan Pettibone (ranked fourth by Hulet among Phillies prospects). Also likely to be seen: Bryce Brentz (Red Sox), Cody Asche (Phillies), and Darin Ruf (also Phillies).
Broadcast Information: MiLB.TV.
Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages
Note: the very proprietary and also critically acclaimed NERD game scores will be available at the end of April/beginning of May.
Here — for purposes entirely of entertainment and not for gambling, which is a Scourge of Propriety — are all of today’s games with moneyline odds (from relatively “sharp” sportsbook Pinnacle Sports) translated into projected winning percentages (and adjusted to account for the vigorish).
Games are listed in Eastern Time, as the author has recently bothered to learn how to convert time zones in Excel. Game presented in order, first, of National League and then American League and, finally, then interleague play.
***Not included below (because no odds were available for it on Tuesday night) is this tonight’s New York AL-Cleveland game — which game begins at 19:05 ET and features Ivan Nova versus an undecided pitcher for the Indians.***
| Game | Teams | Starters | Line | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:45 | Cincinnati Reds | Homer Bailey | 1.91 | 51.4% |
| ET | St. Louis Cardinals | Jake Westbrook | 2.02 | 48.6% |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| 15:40 | Pittsburgh Pirates | Jonathan Sanchez | 2.50 | 39.2% |
| ET | Arizona Diamondbacks | Wade Miley | 1.61 | 60.8% |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| 15:45 | Colorado Rockies | Jeff Francis | 2.24 | 43.8% |
| ET | San Francisco Giants | Barry Zito | 1.75 | 56.2% |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| 19:05 | New York Mets | Jeremy Hefner | 2.09 | 46.9% |
| ET | Philadelphia Phillies | Kyle Kendrick | 1.85 | 53.1% |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| 19:10 | Atlanta Braves | Mike Minor | 1.63 | 60.3% |
| ET | Miami Marlins | Alex Sanabia | 2.47 | 39.7% |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| 20:05 | Milwaukee Brewers | Kyle Lohse | 1.86 | 52.9% |
| ET | Chicago Cubs | Scott Feldman | 2.08 | 47.1% |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| 22:10 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Chad Billingsley | 1.87 | 52.4% |
| ET | San Diego Padres | Eric Stults | 2.06 | 47.6% |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| 13:05 | Toronto Blue Jays | Mark Buehrle | 2.11 | 46.5% |
| ET | Detroit Tigers | Rick Porcello | 1.83 | 53.5% |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| 14:05 | Tampa Bay Rays | Matt Moore | 2.23 | 44.0% |
| ET | Texas Rangers | Derek Holland | 1.75 | 56.0% |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| 19:10 | Baltimore Orioles | Jake Arrieta | 2.26 | 43.4% |
| ET | Boston Red Sox | Ryan Dempster | 1.73 | 56.6% |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| 20:10 | Minnesota Twins | Liam Hendriks | 2.30 | 42.6% |
| ET | Kansas City Royals | Wade Davis | 1.71 | 57.4% |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| 22:05 | Oakland Athletics | Tommy Milone | 2.18 | 45.0% |
| ET | LAA Angels | Joe Blanton | 1.78 | 55.0% |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| 22:10 | Houston Astros | Brad Peacock | 2.47 | 39.7% |
| ET | Seattle Mariners | Blake Beavan | 1.63 | 60.3% |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| 19:05 | Chicago White Sox | Gavin Floyd | 2.50 | 39.2% |
| ET | Washington Nationals | Jordan Zimmermann | 1.61 | 60.8% |
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
I only take issue with the Texas>Tampa audio for today’s day game. Serious issue good sir.