Daily Notes: Sexy Regressed August Leaderboards

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Sexy Regressed August Leaderboards
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Sexy Regressed August Leaderboards
Regarding a “Sexy Regressed Leaderboard,” What That Is
In the not very distant past, the author submitted — as a prelude to a series of posts on college summer leagues — he submitted an entirely infallible and also sexy method by which to present responsibly both batting and pitching production regardless of sample size.

Regarding the Method in Question, A Short Description of It
Essentially, what the author did was to (a) take the strikeout, walk, and (for hitters) home-run rates of every player in the relevant sample, (b) regress them accordingly, and (c) produce a number that looks either like wRC+ (for hitters) or ERA- (for pitchers).

Regarding That Method, A Slightly More Thorough Description of It
For the purposes of these sexy leaderboards, offensive production (represented as the totally made-up SCOUT+, where 100 is league average and above 100 is above average) is essentially a version of wRC+, except using the three main defense-independent inputs (home-run, walk, and strikeout rate), all regressed duly*. Pitching performance (represented by the also entirely made-up SCOUT-, where 100 is league average and below 100 represents above-average run prevention) is calculated using a version of kwERA, with regressed strikeout and walk rates as the relevant inputs.

Regarding That Method, The Most Thorough Description of It
Click this hyperlinked text to read the most thorough description of the method discussed here.

Sexy and Regressed Batting Leaderboard for August
Here are the top hitters from August so far, as determined by the methodology presented above:

Player	Team	PA	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	SCOUT+
Prince Fielder	Tigers	82	3.9%	11.9%	13.4%	140
Miguel Cabrera	Tigers	85	3.9%	10.3%	15.0%	132
Buster Posey	Giants	82	3.9%	12.4%	18.7%	131
John Jaso	Mariners	59	3.1%	12.3%	16.4%	126
Edwin Encarnacion	Blue Jays	84	3.3%	9.8%	13.8%	125
Albert Pujols	Angels	83	4.6%	5.9%	15.9%	125
Aaron Hill	Diamondbacks	81	3.6%	7.4%	12.9%	124
Chase Headley	Padres	84	4.9%	6.8%	19.8%	124
Todd Frazier	Reds	87	3.9%	8.7%	16.8%	124
Ryan Ludwick	Reds	80	4.3%	7.5%	17.7%	123

Sexy and Regressed Pitching Leaderboard for August
Here are the top pitchers from August so far — also as determined by the methodology presented above:

Player	Team	IP	TBF	xK%	xBB%	SCOUT-
Max Scherzer	Tigers	25.0	104	29.2%	7.3%	70
Chris Sale	White Sox	29.0	115	28.5%	6.8%	71
R.A. Dickey	Mets	29.0	112	27.6%	7.2%	75
Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	29.1	109	26.6%	6.5%	75
Cliff Lee	Phillies	29.1	120	25.2%	6.0%	78
Edwin Jackson	Nationals	23.2	100	27.1%	7.9%	78
Justin Verlander	Tigers	21.0	91	26.2%	7.1%	78
Madison Bumgarner	Giants	29.0	106	25.7%	6.6%	78
Craig Kimbrel	Braves	6.0	22	26.5%	7.5%	79
Stephen Strasburg	Nationals	24.0	92	26.8%	8.0%	79

Notes
• Mike Trout’s exclusion from the hitting leaderboard probably has a lot to do with how (a) a not insignificant portiion of his offensive value is derived from sustaining a rather high BABIP and (b) the method utilized here doesn’t reward BABIP ability, at all.
• At 4.9%, Chase Headley has the highest expected home-run rate among all batters in August — ahead of second place Albert Pujols (4.6%) and third place Giancarlo Stanton (4.4%).
• For a reliever to appear on the pitching leaderboard requires — on account of regression — requires a particular sort of dominance. In Craig Kimbrel’s case, it required striking out 15 of 22 batters faced (68.2%) in August.

Complete and Entirely Sexy Regressed Leaderboards for August
Click this hyperlinked text for the complete regressed August leaderboards.

Today’s Notable Games
St. Louis at Cincinnati | 19:10 ET
The Reds enter this series with a seven-game lead over the Cardinals. According to WAR, however, the lead should be six games — for the Cardinals.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: St. Louis Radio.

Minnesota at Texas | 20:05 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
Apropos this game only, like, 15%, here’s 19-year-old Ranger shortstop prospect Jurickson Profar’s line at Double-A Frisco this season: 535 PA, 11.0% BB, 14.2% K, 14 HR, .285/.366/.463 (.309 BABIP).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.

Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 4.2.

Note: the following Game Scores include the poorly conceived playoff-odds adjustment discussed in a recent edition of Daily Notes. Also note: the following table is entirely sortable.

Away		SP	Tm.	Gm.	Tm.	SP		Home	Time
Drew Pomeranz	COL	4	8	4	2	10	CHN	Jeff Samardzija	14:20
Zack Greinke	LAA	9	8	7	4	7	DET	Rick Porcello	19:05
Mike Fiers	MIL	7	8	6	4	4	PIT	Wandy Rodriguez	19:05
CC Sabathia	NYA	9	7	4	2	5	CLE	Corey Kluber*	19:05
Carlos Villanueva	TOR	5	6	3	1	3	BAL	Zach Britton	19:05
Edwin Jackson	WAS	7	6	3	5	3	PHI	Kyle Kendrick	19:05
Jordan Lyles	HOU	6	4	4	2	7	NYN	Jon Niese	19:10
Bruce Chen	KC	3	7	3	6	7	BOS	Jon Lester	19:10
Jarrod Parker	OAK	6	6	6	4	7	TB	Matt Moore	19:10
Lance Lynn	STL	7	9	7	5	8	CIN	Mat Latos	19:10
Samuel Deduno	MIN	0	4	1	7	5	TEX	Matt Harrison	20:05
Jason Vargas	SEA	3	4	3	4	6	CHA	Jake Peavy	20:10
Eric Stults	SD	2	6	4	7	7	AZ	Patrick Corbin	21:40
Nathan Eovaldi	MIA	4	3	4	1	6	LAN	Chad Billingsley	22:10
Ben Sheets	ATL	5	8	4	3	3	SF	Ryan Vogelsong	22:15

To learn more about Pitcher and Team NERD scores click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.