Daily Notes: Sunday’s Games Considered for Your Pleasure
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.
1. Today’s Notable Games (With a Note on Free MLB.TV Games)
2. Potentially Useful Video: John Lackey’s Season Debut
3. Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages
Today’s Notable Games (With a Note on Free MLB.TV Games)
Note: on what MLBAM is calling Free Preview Sunday, all of today’s games besides the Atlanta-Detroit ESPN Sunday Night one are available for free on MLB.TV.
Cincinnati at Washington | 13:35 ET
After an excellent performance in his first major-league start, Tony Cingrani was even better in his second one, striking out nine of 25 Cubs batters while walking none (box). Notable is this: Cingrani compiled 12 swinging-strikes among the 72 fastballs he threw, or ca. 17%. League average, meanwhile, is about 6%.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Washington Radio
Houston at Boston | 13:35 ET
Likely much to the surprise of the Boston fan, who’s incapable of not spitting whilst uttering the right-hander’s name, John Lackey began his season debut on April 6th by striking out eight of the first 19 batters he faced (box). Likely less to that same Bostonian’s surprise is how Lackey was forced to depart that game with an injury. Today, Lackey returns. Of note: Lackey’s curveball seemed to be particularly useful in that first game, inducing whiffs four of the 11 times Lackey appears to have thrown it.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio or Television*
*Note: both Bill Brown and Jim Deshaies, responsible for Houston’s excellent broadcast ratings a year-plus ago, have departed from the Astros television broadcast. The author will likely be facilitating a new round of broadcast rankings in the coming months.
Potentially Useful Video: John Lackey’s Season Debut
Here’s potentially useful video of John Lackey’s season debut, during which he struck out eight of 19 batters faced before leaving with a biceps injury. He throws his curveball, which was particularly effective, at 0:26 and 0:43.
Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages
Note: the very proprietary and also critically acclaimed NERD game scores will become available again on Monday, April 29.
Here — for purposes entirely of entertainment and not for gambling, which is a Scourge of Propriety — are all of today’s games with moneyline odds (from relatively “sharp” sportsbook Pinnacle Sports) translated into projected winning percentages (and adjusted to account for the vigorish).
Games are listed in Eastern Time, and presented as they appear at Pinnacle — which appears to be in order of (a) National League and then (b) American League and, finally, then (c) interleague play.
| Game | Teams | Starters | IP | xFIP- | WAR | —– | Line | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:10 | Philadelphia Phillies | Cole Hamels | 31.2 | 106 | 0.2 | | | 1.87 | 52.4% |
| ET | New York Mets | Jon Niese | 26.0 | 122 | 0.0 | | | 2.06 | 47.6% |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 13:10 | Chicago Cubs | Carlos Villanueva | 29.1 | 87 | 0.2 | | | 1.89 | 52.0% |
| ET | Miami Marlins | Ricky Nolasco | 28.1 | 110 | 0.3 | | | 2.04 | 48.0% |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 13:35 | Cincinnati Reds | Tony Cingrani | 12.0 | 57 | 0.3 | | | 2.01 | 48.8% |
| ET | Washington Nationals | Ross Detwiler | 26.0 | 111 | 0.5 | | | 1.92 | 51.2% |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 14:15 | Pittsburgh Pirates | Jeff Locke | 21.2 | 134 | -0.4 | | | 2.74 | 35.8% |
| ET | St. Louis Cardinals | Shelby Miller | 25.0 | 83 | 0.7 | | | 1.53 | 64.2% |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 16:10 | Milwaukee Brewers | Kyle Lohse | 25.0 | 85 | 0.7 | | | 2.52 | 38.9% |
| ET | Los Angeles Dodgers | Clayton Kershaw | 33.2 | 83 | 0.6 | | | 1.61 | 61.1% |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 16:10 | San Francisco Giants | Ryan Vogelsong | 25.1 | 106 | 0.1 | | | 1.79 | 54.6% |
| ET | San Diego Padres | Jason Marquis | 23.1 | 129 | -0.5 | | | 2.16 | 45.4% |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 16:10 | Colorado Rockies | Jon Garland | 25.0 | 109 | 0.1 | | | 2.26 | 43.4% |
| ET | Arizona Diamondbacks | Patrick Corbin | 26.1 | 98 | 0.7 | | | 1.73 | 56.6% |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 13:05 | Toronto Blue Jays | R.A. Dickey | 29.0 | 112 | 0.4 | | | 1.92 | 51.2% |
| ET | New York Yankees | Phil Hughes | 21.0 | 103 | 0.0 | | | 2.01 | 48.8% |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 13:35 | Houston Astros | Bud Norris | 24.0 | 126 | 0.2 | | | 2.82 | 34.8% |
| ET | Boston Red Sox | John Lackey | 4.1 | 16 | 0.1 | | | 1.50 | 65.2% |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 14:10 | Texas Rangers | Alexi Ogando | 26.0 | 92 | 0.4 | | | 1.78 | 55.0% |
| ET | Minnesota Twins | Kevin Correia | 28.1 | 102 | 0.5 | | | 2.18 | 45.0% |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 14:10 | Tampa Bay Rays | David Price | 31.0 | 83 | 0.3 | | | 1.75 | 56.2% |
| ET | Chicago White Sox | Dylan Axelrod | 21.1 | 119 | 0.3 | | | 2.24 | 43.8% |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 14:10 | G1 Cleveland Indians | Justin Masterson | 34.0 | 95 | 0.7 | | | 2.02 | 48.6% |
| ET | G1 Kansas City Royals | Jeremy Guthrie | 25.2 | 98 | -0.1 | | | 1.91 | 51.4% |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 16:05 | Baltimore Orioles | Miguel Gonzalez | 24.0 | 140 | -0.1 | | | 2.31 | 42.5% |
| ET | Oakland Athletics | Bartolo Colon | 26.0 | 87 | 0.7 | | | 1.70 | 57.5% |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 16:10 | LAA Angels | Jason Vargas | 21.2 | 137 | 0.1 | | | 2.00 | 49.1% |
| ET | Seattle Mariners | Hisashi Iwakuma | 31.2 | 83 | 0.4 | | | 1.93 | 50.9% |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 20:05 | Atlanta Braves | Mike Minor | 25.0 | 85 | 0.8 | | | 2.28 | 43.0% |
| ET | Detroit Tigers | Doug Fister | 27.0 | 99 | 0.5 | | | 1.72 | 57.0% |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 20:10 | G2 Cleveland Indians | Corey Kluber | 5.0 | 61 | 0.1 | | | 2.20 | 44.6% |
| ET | G2 Kansas City Royals | Will Smith | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | | | 1.77 | 55.4% |
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.