Daily Notes: Top Performances of the Carolina League So Far

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Three Notable Carolina League Peformances
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: High-A Carolina League
3. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
4. Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages

Three Notable Carolina League Peformances
The leaderboards for the High-A Carolina League are below. Here are brief notes on three players from those leaderboards — like who they are mostly, for example.

• In addition to being on of the Carolina League’s youngest players, Baltimore infield prospect Nick Delmonico has also been one of its most offensively productive. Taken in the sixth round of the 2011 draft by Baltimore out of a Tennessee high school, Delmonico has produced an excellent slash-line (.325/.471/.600) thus far which, despite rather a high .407 BABIP, is supported by the regressed numbers, too. After splitting time between first and second base last season, he’s played mostly third base so far in this one.

• Even younger than Delmonico is Cleveland shortstop prospect Francisco Lindor, an object of considerable fascination for most prospect analysts, at this point. Here, for example, is where he ranked on Marc Hulet’s preseason top-100 list: 20th. And Baseball America’s: 28th. And Bullpen Banter’s: ninth. Despite an absence of homers, he’s walked more than’s struck out to begin the season — and, again, is in his age-19 season.

• Six-foot-five left-handed Rangers prospect Victor Payano has been the Carolina League’s most impressive pitcher through three starts, posting a 22:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 14.1 innings. Originally signed for $75,000 by Texas in 2010, Payano seems to have appeared on few, if any, prospect lists — and, in fact, struggled with his command in the Sally League last season, recording a 97:62 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 105.0 innings.

SCOUT Leaderboards: High-A Carolina League
Previously considered: Triple-A International League (April 10) / Triple-A Pacific Coast League (April 11) / Double-A Eastern League (April 12) / Double-A Southern League (April 16) / Double-A Texas League (April 17).

Below are the present SCOUT hitting and pitching leaderboards for the High-A Carolina League.

“What is a SCOUT leaderboard, gentleman author?” perhaps a person is asking somewhere — to which question that same author has provided a (hopefully) reasonable answer here. In brief, however, it’s this: an attempt to use our knowledge of certain metrics, and at what sample sizes they become reliable, to measure run production and prevention in instances where small samples prevail.

Below, as I say, are those leaderboards for the High-A Carolina League. (Note: statistics current as of Monday.)

SCOUT Leaderboard: Carolina League Hitters (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for the High-A Carolina League. SCOUT+ combines regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates in a FIP-like equation to produce a result not unlike wRC+, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all Carolina League hitters) and above 100 is above average. xHR%, xBB%, and xK% stand for expected home run, walk, and strikeout rate, respectively.

Player	Team	Age	PA	HR	BB	K	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	SCOUT+
Billy Burns	Nationals (A+)	23	71	0	12	7	1.3%	12.0%	16.3%	115
Nick Delmonico	Orioles (A+)	20	51	2	11	11	2.1%	12.4%	21.9%	114
Samuel Starr	Orioles (A+)	25	63	1	7	5	1.7%	9.8%	16.1%	113
Sean Coyle	Red Sox (A+)	21	41	3	4	7	2.5%	9.4%	20.7%	112
Preston Beck	Rangers (A+)	22	27	0	7	1	1.6%	11.5%	18.8%	111
Kevan Smith	White Sox (A+)	25	59	2	5	7	2.1%	9.0%	18.1%	111
Jerrud Sabourin	Indians (A+)	23	62	0	9	6	1.4%	10.9%	17.0%	111
Joseph Wendle	Indians (A+)	23	59	1	9	9	1.7%	11.0%	19.4%	111
Robert Hefflinger	Braves (A+)	23	64	5	4	16	3.1%	8.3%	23.3%	110
Kellin Deglan	Rangers (A+)	21	37	2	6	8	2.2%	10.5%	22.0%	109

SCOUT Leaderboard: Carolina League Hitters (Age 22 and Under)
Here are the top-10 batters of the High-A Carolina League who might still, because of their age, be considered prospects — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player	Team	Age	PA	HR	BB	K	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	SCOUT+
Nick Delmonico	Orioles (A+)	20	51	2	11	11	2.1%	12.4%	21.9%	114
Sean Coyle	Red Sox (A+)	21	41	3	4	7	2.5%	9.4%	20.7%	112
Preston Beck	Rangers (A+)	22	27	0	7	1	1.6%	11.5%	18.8%	111
Kellin Deglan	Rangers (A+)	21	37	2	6	8	2.2%	10.5%	22.0%	109
Francisco Lindor	Indians (A+)	19	65	0	7	6	1.4%	9.7%	16.5%	108
Garin Cecchini	Red Sox (A+)	22	59	1	7	9	1.7%	10.0%	19.4%	108
Justin Trapp	Royals (A+)	22	69	1	10	14	1.7%	11.1%	21.3%	106
Jake Lowery	Indians (A+)	22	29	1	6	7	1.9%	10.9%	22.5%	106
William Beckwith	Braves (A+)	22	62	4	5	17	2.7%	8.9%	24.3%	106
Daniel Mateo	Royals (A+)	21	61	1	3	6	1.7%	7.9%	17.1%	106

SCOUT Leaderboard: Carolina League Pitchers (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the High-A Carolina League. SCOUT- combines regressed strikeout and walk rates in a kwERA-like equation to produce a number not unlike ERA-, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all Carolina League pitchers) and below 100 is better than average. xK% and xBB% stand for expected strikeout and walk rate, respectively.

Player	Team	Age	G	GS	IP	TBF	K	BB	xK%	xBB%	SCOUT-
Victor Payano	Rangers (A+)	20	3	3	14.1	54	22	4	28.8%	9.1%	78
Tim Berry	Orioles (A+)	22	3	3	17.0	66	21	3	26.4%	8.7%	85
Spencer Patton	Royals (A+)	25	5	0	12.1	51	19	7	27.2%	9.7%	85
Kyle Smith	Royals (A+)	20	3	3	13.1	60	21	8	27.2%	9.7%	85
Tyler Herron	Nationals (A+)	26	4	0	7.0	31	14	4	26.8%	9.5%	86
Nathan Hyatt	Braves (A+)	22	5	0	6.0	24	11	0	25.9%	8.8%	87
Robbie Ray	Nationals (A+)	21	4	4	23.0	88	26	10	26.5%	9.6%	87
Kyle Zimmer	Royals (A+)	21	3	3	14.0	57	18	3	25.7%	8.8%	87
Matthew Bischoff	Orioles (A+)	26	4	1	9.1	34	12	0	25.1%	8.7%	89
Wilson Rivera	Braves (A+)	23	5	0	9.0	36	13	4	25.4%	9.4%	90

SCOUT Leaderboard: Carolina League Pitchers (Starters Only)
Here are the top-10 pitchers in the High-A Carolina League who have made at least half of their appearances as starts — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player	Team	Age	G	GS	IP	TBF	K	BB	xK%	xBB%	SCOUT-
Victor Payano	Rangers (A+)	20	3	3	14.1	54	22	4	28.8%	9.1%	78
Tim Berry	Orioles (A+)	22	3	3	17.0	66	21	3	26.4%	8.7%	85
Kyle Smith	Royals (A+)	20	3	3	13.1	60	21	8	27.2%	9.7%	85
Robbie Ray	Nationals (A+)	21	4	4	23.0	88	26	10	26.5%	9.6%	87
Kyle Zimmer	Royals (A+)	21	3	3	14.0	57	18	3	25.7%	8.8%	87
William Cuevas	Red Sox (A+)	22	3	3	12.2	53	15	3	24.3%	8.9%	92
Ryan Weber	Braves (A+)	22	3	3	16.0	65	17	3	23.8%	8.7%	93
Luke Jackson	Rangers (A+)	21	3	3	14.1	60	17	8	24.6%	9.7%	94
Henry Owens	Red Sox (A+)	20	3	3	15.0	61	16	5	23.8%	9.1%	94
Eduardo Rodriguez	Orioles (A+)	20	3	3	19.0	75	18	3	23.0%	8.5%	95

Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
Oakland at Boston | 18:30 ET
In 34 career starts now — i.e. roughly the number a healthy pitcher would make in a season — Boston left-hander Felix Doubront has posted roughly above-average numbers. To wit: 186.1 IP, 23.0% K, 10.0% BB, 43.5% GB, 3.90 SIERA, 93 xFIP-, 2.6 WAR. He’s been less adept in preventing runs (111 ERA-), but everyone who’s anyone understands that Doubront that a combo package of chance and defense play a role in run that, as well. By contrast, anyone who’s everyone is probably Walt Whitman.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio or Television.

Miami at Minnesota | 20:10 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
From Job, Book 1 (King James Edition)

13 And there was a day when his sons and his daughters were eating and drinking wine in their eldest brother’s house:

14 And there came a messenger unto Job, and said, The oxen were plowing, and the asses feeding beside them:

15 And the Sabeans fell upon them, and took them away; yea, they have slain the servants with the edge of the sword; and I only am escaped alone to tell thee.

16 While he was yet speaking, there came also another, and said, The fire of God is fallen from heaven, and hath burned up the sheep, and the servants, and consumed them; and I only am escaped alone to tell thee.

17 While he was yet speaking, there came also another, and said, The Chaldeans made out three bands, and fell upon the camels, and have carried them away, yea, and slain the servants with the edge of the sword; and I only am escaped alone to tell thee.

18 While he was yet speaking, there came also another, and said, Thy sons and thy daughters were eating and drinking wine in their eldest brother’s house:

19 And, behold, there came a great wind from the wilderness, and smote the four corners of the house, and it fell upon the young men, and they are dead; and I only am escaped alone to tell thee.

20 And, finally, another servant came and said, Thou must attend tonight’s game in Minneapolis, with regard to which city the National Weather Service has declared a Winter Storm Warning and which game features two teams of most pitiful mien, or at least pretty bad mien.

21 In response to which final calamity, Job was said, “That’s too much. Everything else, I get it. But I won’t tolerate this!”

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Minnesota Radio, Perhaps?

Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages
Note: the very proprietary and also critically acclaimed NERD game scores will become available again at the end of April/beginning of May.

Here — for purposes entirely of entertainment and not for gambling, which is a Scourge of Propriety — are all of today’s games with moneyline odds (from relatively “sharp” sportsbook Pinnacle Sports) translated into projected winning percentages (and adjusted to account for the vigorish).

Games are listed in Eastern Time, and presented as they appear at Pinnacle — which appears to be in order of (a) National League and then (b) American League and, finally, then (c) interleague play.

Game	Teams	Starters	IP	xFIP-	WAR	—–	Line	Win%
19:05	St. Louis Cardinals	Shelby Miller	18.1	85	0.4	|	1.93	50.9%
ET	Washington Nationals	Dan Haren	13.1	121	-0.2	|	2.00	49.1%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
19:10	Chicago Cubs	Travis Wood	19.2	119	0.5	|	2.43	40.4%
ET	Cincinnati Reds	Mike Leake	19.0	113	0.1	|	1.65	59.6%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
20:40	Atlanta Braves	Mike Minor	19.0	78	0.7	|	1.86	52.9%
ET	Colorado Rockies	Jeff Francis	12.0	113	0.3	|	2.08	47.1%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
22:10	Milwaukee Brewers	Kyle Lohse	20.0	84	0.5	|	1.86	52.9%
ET	San Diego Padres	Jason Marquis	18.2	118	-0.1	|	2.08	47.1%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
22:15	Arizona Diamondbacks	Wade Miley	19.1	95	0.4	|	2.08	47.1%
ET	San Francisco Giants	Ryan Vogelsong	18.1	100	0.3	|	1.86	52.9%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
18:30	Oakland Athletics	A.J. Griffin	20.0	113	0.4	|	2.15	45.6%
ET	Boston Red Sox	Felix Doubront	10.0	72	0.3	|	1.80	54.4%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
19:05	Toronto Blue Jays	J.A. Happ	16.0	125	0.2	|	2.04	48.0%
ET	Baltimore Orioles	Chris Tillman	14.0	112	0.0	|	1.89	52.0%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
19:10	New York Yankees	CC Sabathia	28.0	94	0.9	|	2.05	47.8%
ET	Tampa Bay Rays	Matt Moore	18.0	93	0.3	|	1.88	52.2%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
20:10	Cleveland Indians	Justin Masterson	27.0	84	0.8	|	1.96	50.0%
ET	Chicago White Sox	Dylan Axelrod	15.1	126	0.1	|	1.96	50.0%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
20:10	Seattle Mariners	Felix Hernandez	28.2	73	0.7	|	1.61	61.1%
ET	Houston Astros	Brad Peacock	13.2	126	0.0	|	2.52	38.9%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
22:05	Texas Rangers	Derek Holland	22.0	95	0.6	|	2.00	49.1%
ET	LAA Angels	Joe Blanton	14.2	131	-0.5	|	1.93	50.9%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
20:10	Miami Marlins	Ricky Nolasco	23.1	109	0.2	|	2.38	41.2%
ET	Minnesota Twins	Kevin Correia	21.1	105	0.2	|	1.67	58.8%