Daily Notes: With Also Minor-League Games for Your Pleasure
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.
1. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
2. Today’s Notable Minor-League Games
3. Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages
Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
Kansas City at Boston | 13:10 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
One assumes that this game will have something of the celebratory feel after Friday night’s nearly ideal resolution to an otherwise startling series of events. That will make Fenway Park and its occupants a compelling spectacle in and of themselves. Incidentally, there’s also rather a promising pitching matchup between James Shields (21.0 IP, 74 xFIP-) and Clay Buchholz (22.0 IP, 86 xFIP-). Regarding Buchholz: he’s posted a 27.4% strikeout rate so far, about 10 percentage points above his career average. That’s encouraging. Less encouraging is how his swinging-strike rate — which correlates very highly with strikeout rate — is basically the same (8.5%) as in previous seasons.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio or Television.
Cleveland at Houston | 19:10 ET
Cleveland left-hander Scott Kazmir makes his first major-league appearance since April 3, 2011. He pitched well in his only minor-league appearances this year, a start, recording the following line (link): 5.0 IP, 18 TBF, 5 K, 0 BB, 0 HR.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Television.
Today’s Notable Minor-League Games
Click here for entire MiLB.TV schedule on just one page.
Bowling Green (Rays) at Dayton (Reds) | 19:00 ET
Right-handed Cincinnati prospect Robert Stephenson starts for Dayton. He’s conceded quite a bit in the way of runs so far through three starts (12.2 IP, 7.11 ERA), but has done so while also posting a 20:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio that’s likely more indicative of his talent. The 20-year-old was ranked second overall in the Reds system by Marc Hulet on his presearon organizational top-15 list, and was recently spotted throwing throwing at 96-99 mph by the internet’s Doug Gray.
Broadcast: MiLB.TV. (And maybe streaming for free, according to the internet’s Doug Gray.)
Tucson (Padres) at Fresno (Giants) | 22:05 ET
Right-hander Chris Heston starts for Triple-A Fresno. At 25, he’s slightly older, but has posted excellent peripherals, finishing second last season among starts on the SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Double-A Eastern League, before appearing atop that same kind of leaderboard for the PCL to begin the present season. The internet suggests that he relies on command as opposed to raw stuff.
Broadcast: MiLB.TV.
Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages
Note: the very proprietary and also critically acclaimed NERD game scores will become available again at the end of April/beginning of May.
Here — for purposes entirely of entertainment and not for gambling, which is a Scourge of Propriety — are all of today’s games with moneyline odds (from relatively “sharp” sportsbook Pinnacle Sports) translated into projected winning percentages (and adjusted to account for the vigorish).
Games are listed in Eastern Time, and presented as they appear at Pinnacle — which appears to be in order of (a) National League and then (b) American League and, finally, then (c) interleague play.
| Game | Teams | Starters | IP | xFIP- | —– | Line | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:10 | Miami Marlins | Wade LeBlanc | 14.2 | 108 | | | 3.11 | 31.5% |
| ET | Cincinnati Reds | Bronson Arroyo | 20.0 | 104 | | | 1.43 | 68.5% |
| — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 15:05 | Washington Nationals | Gio Gonzalez | 16.0 | 96 | | | 1.68 | 58.5% |
| ET | New York Mets | Jeremy Hefner | 10.0 | 144 | | | 2.36 | 41.5% |
| — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 19:05 | St. Louis Cardinals | Lance Lynn | 15.0 | 95 | | | 2.25 | 43.6% |
| ET | Philadelphia Phillies | Cliff Lee | 23.2 | 84 | | | 1.74 | 56.4% |
| — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 19:05 | Atlanta Braves | Paul Maholm | 20.1 | 78 | | | 1.76 | 55.8% |
| ET | Pittsburgh Pirates | James McDonald | 13.2 | 151 | | | 2.22 | 44.2% |
| — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 19:10 | Chicago Cubs | Edwin Jackson | 16.1 | 92 | | | 2.06 | 47.6% |
| ET | Milwaukee Brewers | Hiram Burgos | N/A | N/A | | | 1.87 | 52.4% |
| — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 20:10 | Arizona Diamondbacks | Trevor Cahill | 18.0 | 84 | | | 2.09 | 46.9% |
| ET | Colorado Rockies | Jorge de la Rosa | 16.1 | 97 | | | 1.85 | 53.1% |
| — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 21:05 | San Diego Padres | Clayton Richard | 15.1 | 140 | | | 2.45 | 40.1% |
| ET | San Francisco Giants | Tim Lincecum | 16.0 | 127 | | | 1.64 | 59.9% |
| — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 13:05 | New York Yankees | Hiroki Kuroda | 15.2 | 95 | | | 1.94 | 50.5% |
| ET | Toronto Blue Jays | Mark Buehrle | 16.0 | 120 | | | 1.98 | 49.5% |
| — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 13:10 | Kansas City Royals | James Shields | 21.0 | 74 | | | 2.32 | 42.3% |
| ET | Boston Red Sox | Clay Buchholz | 22.0 | 86 | | | 1.70 | 57.7% |
| — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 15:05 | Minnesota Twins | Vance Worley | 12.0 | 114 | | | 2.56 | 38.3% |
| ET | Chicago White Sox | Jake Peavy | 18.1 | 55 | | | 1.59 | 61.7% |
| — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 15:05 | Detroit Tigers | Rick Porcello | 12.1 | 115 | | | 2.03 | 48.4% |
| ET | LAA Angels | Garrett Richards | 10.2 | 99 | | | 1.90 | 51.6% |
| — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 19:10 | Oakland Athletics | Jarrod Parker | 11.2 | 183 | | | 2.18 | 45.0% |
| ET | Tampa Bay Rays | Jeremy Hellickson | 18.1 | 105 | | | 1.78 | 55.0% |
| — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 19:10 | Cleveland Indians | Scott Kazmir | N/A | N/A | | | 1.94 | 50.5% |
| ET | Houston Astros | Philip Humber | 18.2 | 112 | | | 1.98 | 49.5% |
| — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 20:05 | Seattle Mariners | Brandon Maurer | 12.2 | 120 | | | 2.53 | 38.8% |
| ET | Texas Rangers | Nick Tepesch | 13.0 | 82 | | | 1.60 | 61.2% |
| — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 19:05 | G2 Los Angeles Dodgers | Josh Beckett | 19.1 | 83 | | | 2.10 | 46.7% |
| ET | G2 Baltimore Orioles | Wei-Yin Chen | 18.0 | 114 | | | 1.84 | 53.3% |
| — | — | — | — | — | | | — | — |
| 13:05 | G1 Los Angeles Dodgers | Hyun-Jin Ryu | 18.2 | 71 | | | 2.03 | 48.4% |
| ET | G1 Baltimore Orioles | Jason Hammel | 18.2 | 132 | | | 1.90 | 51.6% |
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
I hadn’t really been following your presentation of the daily schedule with percentage chance of winning. That 68.5% for the Reds over the Marlins really floored me. That must be close to as high as it can get for a game between two MLB teams.
The Rays 55% over the A’s surprised me. That must be due primarily to the pitching matchup.