Daily Notes, With Expected wOBAs for Almost All July

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Expected wOBA Leaderboards: Almost All July
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Expected wOBA Leaderboards: Almost All July
A Brief Explanation of What This Is
In the not very distant past, I presented something in the Notes called “Expected wOBA,” itself essentially a version of Bradley Woodrum’s Fielding Independent wOBA but with regressed (as opposed to raw) home-run, walk, and strikeout rates — and a (somewhat haphazardly) regressed version of Woodrum’s updated xBABIP formula, as well — as the inputs.

The idea behind Expected wOBA is to estimate something like a player’s true talent over the course of X plate appearances, where X equals a relatively low number.

Expected wOBA Leaders: Almost All July
Here are the leaders in Expected wOBA (xWOBA, in this case) among all batters over almost all July — which is to say, all of July except for July 31st, on account of that’s when I ran the data. Note that anything beginning with an -x- has been regressed. Note also that, in the absence of actual research having been done on it, I’ve opted to regress stolen-base percentage to 100 plate appearances (as, unregressed, it gives undue credit to players who’ve stolen one base in, for example, just four plate appearances).

Here’s the leaderboard, made just long enough to include Ryan Ludwick:

Name	Team	PA	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	xSB%	xXBABIP	xWOBA
Edwin Encarnacion	Blue Jays	98	3.8%	14.1%	14.1%	1.0%	.337	.403
Mike Trout	Angels	107	4.7%	9.3%	19.0%	8.4%	.333	.401
Josh Willingham	Twins	107	5.4%	12.3%	17.6%	0.0%	.314	.399
Andrew McCutchen	Pirates	99	4.1%	10.1%	16.7%	0.0%	.338	.385
Miguel Cabrera	Tigers	107	4.7%	9.3%	13.6%	0.9%	.304	.381
Jose Reyes	Marlins	111	3.4%	7.1%	11.1%	6.3%	.328	.381
Anthony Rizzo	Cubs	100	4.1%	6.6%	12.6%	1.0%	.325	.375
Billy Butler	Royals	109	3.0%	9.7%	16.7%	0.9%	.353	.375
Ryan Zimmerman	Nationals	113	5.0%	9.0%	17.5%	0.0%	.305	.373
Ben Zobrist	Rays	109	2.4%	12.2%	16.1%	4.6%	.334	.370
Ryan Braun	Brewers	103	3.8%	8.9%	20.9%	4.9%	.334	.370
Ryan Ludwick	Reds	78	4.0%	6.9%	20.1%	0.4%	.338	.361

Expected wOBA Laggards: Almost All July, Still
Here are the bottom-10 hitters over the last month by Expected wOBA:

Name	Team	PA	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	xSB%	xXBABIP	xWOBA
Brandon Inge	Athletics	97	3.2%	5.2%	28.9%	0.1%	.295	.286
Michael Bourn	Braves	119	2.0%	8.3%	28.1%	5.0%	.304	.296
Casey McGehee	Pirates	90	2.9%	5.9%	22.5%	0.2%	.286	.296
Eric Hosmer	Royals	103	1.8%	8.9%	22.9%	2.9%	.293	.297
Chris Davis	Orioles	90	3.2%	7.5%	30.6%	0.2%	.302	.297
Clint Barmes	Pirates	74	2.4%	6.1%	16.6%	0.5%	.279	.299
Mike Leake	Reds	11	2.6%	7.7%	22.3%	1.6%	.283	.300
Todd Frazier	Reds	87	3.2%	7.1%	22.3%	0.2%	.274	.301
Ramon Santiago	Tigers	59	2.2%	8.7%	18.6%	0.7%	.278	.301
Pablo Sandoval	Giants	73	2.7%	7.2%	17.5%	0.5%	.269	.301

Potential wOBA Risers, Maybe
Here are the 10 players whose Expected wOBAs most greatly exceeded their actual wOBAs during almost all July (minimum 25 PA):

Name	Team	PA	BABIP	xXBABIP	wOBA	xWOBA	Diff
Andrelton Simmons	Braves	29	.182	.287	.214	.314	.100
Tyler Flowers	White Sox	36	.350	.317	.230	.311	.081
Peter Bourjos	Angels	45	.258	.293	.232	.307	.075
Robert Andino	Orioles	40	.207	.302	.249	.323	.074
Paul Janish	Braves	57	.237	.299	.249	.315	.066
Brian Bogusevic	Astros	70	.275	.301	.250	.312	.062
Rafael Furcal	Cardinals	99	.272	.307	.275	.337	.062
Hunter Pence	Phillies	90	.288	.311	.243	.305	.062
Chris Stewart	Yankees	33	.200	.286	.256	.315	.059
Zack Cozart	Reds	105	.228	.301	.265	.320	.055

Potential wOBA Fallers, Maybe
Here are the 10 players whose Expected wOBAs are most greatly exceeded by their actual wOBAs during almost all July (minimum 25 PA):

Name	Team	PA	BABIP	xXBABIP	wOBA	xWOBA	Diff
David Freese	Cardinals	84	.545	.326	.506	.356	-.150
Jesus Guzman	Padres	39	.250	.288	.471	.337	-.134
Carlos Corporan	Astros	28	.444	.304	.460	.329	-.131
Juan Francisco	Braves	27	.417	.297	.458	.328	-.130
Michael McKenry	Pirates	45	.375	.297	.453	.326	-.127
Mike Trout	Angels	107	.409	.333	.525	.401	-.124
J.P. Arencibia	Blue Jays	55	.306	.282	.451	.330	-.121
Jordany Valdespin	Mets	48	.333	.297	.464	.343	-.121
Andrew McCutchen	Pirates	99	.477	.338	.504	.385	-.119
Jason Kubel	Diamondbacks	93	.325	.286	.458	.339	-.119

Complete Expected wOBA Leaderboard
Click this hyperlinked text to see the full Expected wOBA leaderboard for almost all July.

Today’s Notable Games
Arizona at Los Angeles NL | 15:10 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
Shane Victorino (431 PA, 101 wRC+, .278 BABIP, 2.1 WAR) makes his debut as a Dodger, probably.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL.

Miami at Atlanta | 19:10 ET
Not only is the legitimately effective Ben Sheets (18.0 IP, 93 xFIP-, 0.6 WAR) pitching, but so is left-hander Wade LeBlanc, who makes his first start of the season. LeBlanc’s line out of the bullpen (15.2 IP, 113 xFIP-, 0.2 WAR) hasn’t set a world, let alone the world, on fire, but his strikeout-to-walk numbers have generally been above average at every level.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Atlanta Radio.

Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 4.3.

Note: the following Game Scores include the poorly conceived playoff-odds adjustment discussed in a recent edition of Daily Notes. Also note: the following table is entirely sortable.

Away		SP	Tm.	Gm.	Tm.	SP		Home	Time
Zach Britton*	BAL	6	0	4	7	5	NYA	Phil Hughes	13:05
Jake Peavy	CHA	6	4	4	4	6	MIN	Scott Diamond	13:10
Jordan Lyles	HOU	5	5	4	7	7	MIL	Michael Fiers	14:10
Jeff Karstens	PIT	6	4	2	0	2	CHN	Travis Wood	14:20
Patrick Corbin	AZ	5	7	6	1	6	LAN	Stephen Fife*	15:10
Alex Cobb	TB	7	4	6	5	6	OAK	Jarrod Parker	15:35
Vance Worley	PHI	6	5	4	7	6	WAS	Edwin Jackson	19:05
Rick Porcello	DET	6	4	5	5	2	BOS	Aaron Cook	19:10
Wade LeBlanc*	MIA	7	3	6	8	9	ATL	Ben Sheets*	19:10
Kip Wells	SD	0	6	1	4	4	CIN	Bronson Arroyo	19:10
Garrett Richards	LAA	4	6	5	8	7	TEX	Yu Darvish	20:05
Zach McAllister	CLE	7	4	3	7	2	KC	Luis Mendoza	20:10
Jake Westbrook	STL	6	9	5	9	4	COL	Drew Pomeranz	20:40
Carl. Villanueva	TOR	5	7	3	4	3	SEA	Blake Beavan	22:10
Jonathon Niese	NYN	7	3	6	3	7	SF	Matt Cain	22:15

To learn more about Pitcher and Team NERD scores click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.