Daily Notes, With WS Odds Converted into Projections
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.
1. World Series Odds, Converted into Projections
2. Actual Transaction News
3. Video for No Reason: Mets Prospect Josh Edgin
World Series Odds, Converted into Projections
Regarding What This Is
This past offseason, after internet sportsbook Bodog had published their early odds for 2012’s World Series winner, I converted those odds into very basic projections, with a view towards seeing what the wisdom of the crowd might reveal about the upcoming season.
Now, with the season roughly at its midway point, I present updated World Series odds, once again converted into projected winning percentages for the league’s 30 clubs.
One Way This Is Different
One way these projected winning percentages are different from those from Novemeber is that these are based on odds from Pinnacle sportsbook, not Bodog. As reader Cliff noted in that first post, Bodog is what’s known as a “square’ book — which is to say, it tends to take bets from casual bettors who are more likely to bet on favorites or for their hometown team, for example. Accordingly, these books will offer less favorable odds on more popular clubs — and artificially inflate the projected World Series chances of those clubs, in the process. A “sharp” book, meanwhile, tends to cater more towards experienced bettors, who are more likely to place reasoned bets. Pinnacle appears to have a reputation as being a sharp book.
Another Way This Is Different
Another way this is different, is that the odds here — unlike in that original version — include the original stake, so the break-even point is just the listed odds divided by one.
Table: World Series Odds, Converted into Projections
I’ve included the odds for each of the 30 MLB teams below. I’ve also included the break-even (BE) point (i.e. the likelihood of winning above which a team must have in order for a bet to be profitable) and a generic “projected” probability (i.e. what the odds suggest is the likely chance of each team winning the World Series) calculated by scaling the total break-even percentage for all 30 teams to 100%.
| Team | Odds | BE | Proj% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers | 5.99 | 16.7% | 14.6% |
| New York Yankees | 6.75 | 14.8% | 13.0% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 11.33 | 8.8% | 7.7% |
| Washington Nationals | 11.82 | 8.5% | 7.4% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 15.21 | 6.6% | 5.7% |
| San Francisco Giants | 15.46 | 6.5% | 5.7% |
| Atlanta Braves | 19.26 | 5.2% | 4.5% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 20.79 | 4.8% | 4.2% |
| Detroit Tigers | 21.3 | 4.7% | 4.1% |
| Chicago White Sox | 22.31 | 4.5% | 3.9% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 23.34 | 4.3% | 3.7% |
| Boston Red Sox | 25.36 | 3.9% | 3.4% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 25.36 | 3.9% | 3.4% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 34.49 | 2.9% | 2.5% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 36.52 | 2.7% | 2.4% |
| New York Mets | 41.59 | 2.4% | 2.1% |
| Cleveland Indians | 43.61 | 2.3% | 2.0% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 46.66 | 2.1% | 1.9% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 51.74 | 1.9% | 1.7% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 56.81 | 1.8% | 1.5% |
| Miami Marlins | 61.87 | 1.6% | 1.4% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 79.13 | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| Oakland Athletics | 137.96 | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Kansas City Royals | 340.84 | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Colorado Rockies | 457.5 | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Minnesota Twins | 457.5 | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| San Diego Padres | 457.5 | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Chicago Cubs | 609.67 | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Houston Astros | 609.67 | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Seattle Mariners | 680.68 | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Actual Transaction News
Thornburg Recalled, Will Relieve
Milwaukee right-hander Tyler Thornburg — ranked second among Brewers prospects by our Marc Hulet this preseason and second by John Sickels of Minor League Ball and fourth by Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com and fourth by Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus and also fourth by Baseball America — has been recalled by the club and will pitch in relief for the present, reports Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. Thornburg, 23, has posted this line at Double-A Huntsville this season: 75.0 IP, 8.52 K/9, 2.88 BB/9, 0.72 HR/9, 3.39 FIP. He made his major-league debut, a start, on June 19th — nor did it go excellently, as Thornburg conceded four home runs in 5.1 innings (box).
Royals Prospect Montgomery Demoted
The Kansas City Royals demoted left-handed prospect Mike Montgomery, 23, on Wednesday to Double-A Northwest Arkansas from Triple-A Omaha, reports Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star. Montgomery entered the season as the second-ranked prospect in the Royals system, according to our Marc Hulet — and the 33rd-ranked overall prospect in baseball. Montgomery has had problem at Triple-A this season, however, posting a line very similar to — if not exactly the same as — this one: 91.2 IP, 6.58 K/9, 4.22 B/9, 1.18 HR/9, 4.95 FIP. GM Dayton Moore, per Dutton, suggests that a change in mechanics — and a subsequent lack of velocity, from around 95-96 mph to 90-92 — could be to blame.
Edgin to Replace Gee
The New York Mets will replace Dillon Gee — to whom a horrifying thing appears to’ve happened — on their active roster with left-handed pitching prospect Josh Edgin, reports MLB.com’s Paul Casella. Edgin, 25, has done this so far this year year at Triple-A Buffalo: 37.0 IP, 9.73 K/9, 4.38 BB/9, 0.00 HR/9, 2.58 FIP… Actually, now I notice it, Edgin isn’t a starter like I thought he was when I began writing this note. “What’s the use?” one wonders. To which the empty room responds only with a deafening silence.
Video for No Reason: Mets Prospect Josh Edgin
Here, not for any reason a man or any other gendered person could ascertain, is a video of Mets prospect Josh Edgin.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
I’d guess the use of Edgin is that with Monday off the Mets won’t need a fifth starter until July 22. They can use Edgin in the pen until then and then decide who to bring up (assuming they haven’t traded for anyone by then).