Dan Hubbs Looks Back at Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, and Will Vest, Circa 2020

The Detroit Tigers are in a dogfight with just six games remaining on the schedule. Not only is their lead in the American League Central down to one game over the Cleveland Guardians — their opponent the next three nights — a Wild Card berth is no sure thing if they don’t hang on to win the division. As my colleague Kiri Oler pointed out just yesterday, while their chances are promising on paper, “the error bars on those odds are huge.” In order to stave off what could reasonably be deemed a collapse, a Tigers team that has lost nine out of their last 10 is badly in need of wins down the stretch.

A trio of pitchers who will help determine Detroit’s fate were the subject of a recent conversation I had with Dan Hubbs. Now the bullpen coach for the Athletics, Hubbs was the Tigers’ director of pitching development in 2019 and 2020, a time in which Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, and Will Vest were all on the doorstep of the majors. Skubal (who made his major league debut in 2020) is slated to start tonight, while Mize (also 2020) will be on the mound over the weekend, and Vest (2021) has a team-leading 21 saves.

Heading into the 2020 season, Skubal was no. 4 on our Tigers prospect rankings with a 50 FV, Mize was ranked no. 2 with a 60 FV, and Vest was no. 36 with a 35+ FV. How did Hubbs view them then, and what does he see from them — albeit from a distance — five years later? That was what I wanted to know.

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Hubbs on Tarik Skubal:

“With Tarik, it was getting him to command the arm side a little bit more. He was always kind of cross body and ran balls in on guys, and he would pitch up. He’s always had the mindset. I mean, he’s an animal on the mound, and always attacking the strike zone. So, one of the biggest things now is that he commands the arm side. But what has really changed is that he never had the changeup that he has now. That’s taken him to a whole different stratosphere. He throws 100 [mph], then he has this changeup that he can throw against [righties or lefties], interchangeably with his fastball.

“He used to be primarily fastball/slider, and now he’s fastball/changeup with the occasional slider. Having a pitch that comes straight out of the hand just like a heater that he can throw 12 mph [slower] makes it really hard for a hitter. And it’s got good movement, too. I think that is the biggest thing that has taken him from being a very good pitcher to being the best of the best.

“The changeup wasn’t something I worked with him on. He really developed it after he came back from the forearm strain a couple of years ago, so that was due to the guys who are there now. With me, it was mainly working on direction to the plate and keeping him in the strike zone. He was outstanding at the alt site, and then he obviously got called up in August of that year. He hasn’t looked back.”

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On Casey Mize:

“With Casey, it was more about just refining his… he’s always been big into the numbers — he knows how his ball moves — so it was almost taking a step back from that and just attacking with his stuff. One of the things you’re seeing now is that he’s throwing his splitter harder again. That pitch has come back and been a huge weapon for him. I think he lost that his first couple years in the big leagues. It almost looked like he was trying to place it rather than attack with it. Now he’s on the attack. You see the difference.

“[Not missing enough bats] wasn’t a concern for me. I thought he had good command, and he had a good cutter and a good split, so it was more about, ‘How do you use your stuff to maximize what you do?’ Not everybody is going to miss bats with their fastball, so how do you make your fastball useful? There wasn’t an elite movement profile; he just threw really hard.

“Could he throw up in the zone as well as some other guys, based on his arm slot and his movement profile? Maybe not as much, but he can throw 97 at the top if he’s got the hitter off of it with other things. He just can’t live up there with it. It was a matter of, ‘How does he move the fastball around and use all his stuff to become the complete pitcher?’ I think that’s what you’re seeing now.”

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On Will Vest:

“He’s had a helluva year. One thing about Will is that he could always spin the ball better than anybody in the organization. His spin rates were always off the charts, whether you’re looking at the slider or the curveball. He also threw hard when he came back from the Covid [summer]. He went to instructional league and was touching 98-99, consistently attacking the strike zone. When his velo took the jump, and with his ability to throw those pitches, along with having a good change… I mean, he had good movement profiles on everything he threw.

“It was just a matter of him getting comfortable competing in the strike zone and not trying to be too fine. It looks like he’s comfortable now. He attacks first pitch. He has a four-seamer that has good hop to it. He can throw both down and up. The changeup is a factor, and then he has two breaking balls that can go with it.

“I always felt like he was a guy. I remember when [manager] A.J. [Hinch] came in. Will had just gotten [taken in the Rule-5 draft] by the Mariners. A.J. said, ‘We don’t have a ton of guys who can really spin the ball.’ I said, ‘Well, the Mariners took our guy who could.’ So, [the Tigers] kept on track with him, and then got him back. Now he’s carving out a really good career for himself.”