Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 10/6/14

Dan Szymborski: Boom.

Dan Szymborski: Will keep this fairly strictly to an hour. Dan got his yearly flu early this year and wants to sleep so that he doesn’t sleep during games.

Dan Szymborski: And yes, I realize I should probably get the damn flu shot.

Comment From Los
The orioles and royals are playing way over their heads. I guarantee they regress and neither reaches the world series.

Dan Szymborski: heh

Comment From Del Martin
Where does Detroit throw all that Little Cesar’s money after this embarrassing exit?

Dan Szymborski: You would hope the bullpen. I was complaining about it last winter – they had a weak bullpen last year too overall but all they essentially did was tread water there.

Comment From David
So Royals 60/40 over the Os according to FG playoff odds. You buying that?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t run them, but I expect ZiPS to be more optimistic about the O’s.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS didn’t project the O’s as the division favorite or a mean projection above 90 wins, but it did like the O’s 5/6 games a year over the other systems generally.

Comment From Long-Time Chatter
Hosmer or Belt ROS?

Dan Szymborski: Belt.

Comment From NoBatingGloves
Streamer doesn;t like my Card’s chances, does ZIPs feel any differently or will Winter start in St. Louis soon

Dan Szymborski: I posted the up-to-date odds on Twitter yesterday morning (don’t really need to update given that anyone can figure out O’s/Royals first round prob is now 100%)

Dan Szymborski: I think it was Dodgers 51-49, but I’m not positive.

Comment From Vic
Is it too much to ask A Jones and other MLBers to catch the ball with 2 hands? Watching Hardy’s deliberate throws to 1B is a pleasure.

Dan Szymborski: I hate to do that old-timey players did better in my day stuff, but I do think better safe than sorry.

Comment From Xolo
Scioscia’s gone, right? No WS in 12 years, no ALCS in five. What’s Arte throwing all that money around for?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s a coin flip whether he’s back. Hatcher’s firing a couple years ago suggests that Scioscia’s no longer invincible

Comment From Shawn
Should the braves trade kimbrel? Seems the best way to free up a bit of payroll plus get a valuable player or two back.

Dan Szymborski: Yes. I wrote a piece last year suggesting this and there was some full on BARVES MADNESS~!

Dan Szymborski: It’s important to have a good bullpen, but not so much being obsessed about the amazing, expensive closer.

Dan Szymborski: The Braves are not a team that has an unlimited payroll and they team has other needs.

Comment From Santiago
Hi Dan. When are next season projections coming?

Dan Szymborski: Thanksgivingish like usual.

Comment From Gus Lamp
The Padres are one of four teams to hold a private workout for Tomas. Please tell me that they have a shot.

Dan Szymborski: Honeslty, I dont’ think they do. I think Tomas is the first of the Name Cuban guys recently to get overpaid. I think he eclipses 100 million.

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
How good would chase headley be if he spent a full year in the bronx? 4.5 war in a ‘down season’?

Dan Szymborski: That’s probably still aggressive, though I think he’d be a terrific signing for someone.

Dan Szymborski: He was really underratedly (is that a word?) good in New York.

Comment From Bertram
Buxton can make up some ABs, but Sano can’t. How nuts would they have to go next year to debut?

Dan Szymborski: I think that both have decent shots.

Comment From Keeper
Odds that the Nats get one borderline strike call in the game tonight? (HINT: It starts with .000000000…

Comment From David
Nats chances?

Dan Szymborski: Just checked, it was Dodgers 49-51, not 51-49.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has Nats at 15%

Comment From Gus Lamp
Are a bunch of teams going to go after late inning defense/base running replacements now?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not. These guys are far more useful in a postseason sprint than a season marathon

Comment From Dunx
Should teams run away screaming from Stephen Drew, or could he make a good fit for SS-challenged contenders like the A’s, Tigers, etc?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s interesting actually, in that I think he’ll be very undervalued this offseason after a horrific season.

Dan Szymborski: I think there’s a good chance that he ends up having to settle for 1/5 or something.

Comment From Rated Rookie
The September and now October Hosmer looks better. What’s your back of the envelope projection for him in 2015?

Dan Szymborski: Oh, I’m going to wait to see what ZiPS thinks. I give up on trying to mentally get a feel for Hosmer.

Comment From balticwolf
Dan: sweat your flu out. As warm a bath as possible and swaddle yourself in blankets. In biology I learned that the influenza virus starts to unravel at temps above 102–that’s why your body runs a fever. Some truth to this old folk remedy. Elderberry helps too.

Dan Szymborski: I’m usually a fast healer, I’m hoping to be OK for a game 4 or game 5, which I’m trying to aim for in the ALCS.

Comment From NotSimplyAJ10
So Detroit was basically the poster-child for Stars and Scrubs, right?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but Ausmus doesn’t always know the difference.

Comment From SuedePumaJayBuhner
what happened to Mike morse’s power/ skills?

Dan Szymborski: He’s powered by the spring. He wilts in the summer. Michael Morse is essentially baseball’s asparagus.

Comment From SuedePumaJayBuhner
its getting really hard to defend my “orioles are lucky, i dont think they are THAT sick” stance… 🙁

Dan Szymborski: You can be good 8and* fortunate

Comment From Rated Rookie
What’s your take on the front office moves the Braves are making? What do you think the timeline on a Hart-to-Capollela transition is?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t get the impression it would be super-long – I don’t believe Hart wants to do this long-term. The general belief is that they will transition to Coppolella suprrisingly quickly

Comment From AL
How much if any will Stanton getting hit in the face affect his projections for next year? Typical injury I would think would impact some, getting hit the face, might impact more.

Dan Szymborski: We don’t have a ton of data on that. If his vision isn’t affected, I think he’ll be OK.

Comment From balticwolf
Will Cruz ask the O’s for a 3 year deal after his career year? Considering his age and injury history, will they give it to him?

Dan Szymborski: I suspect he may even ask for more. If he’s willing to do 3-year, I think the O’s sign him, but above that, I think a team will give him a stupid contract, someone like the Phillies.

Comment From Dolly Parton Memorial
Just to throw it out there – Angels fire Scioscia and ask the Padres for Black, which Preller is fine with since it means he can bring in his own guy without creating a scene.

Comment From Brandon
Was there any way the Royals pitching strengths matched up particularly well with the Angel’s offense, or did the Angels just not get enough hits to fall at the right times?

Dan Szymborski: I think the good hitters just didn’t hit when they needed to. And that Josh Hamilton was not ready to hit again.

Comment From Rated Rookie
Fangraphs postseason live chats: Yost, bunts, bullpen usage. Not particularly interesting.

Dan Szymborski: But those are the themes of the poastseason!

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Dan, hate to tell you, but it is unlikely that you have the Flu (its not in season yet), probably a garden variety rhinovirus.

Dan Szymborski: Boo.

Dan Szymborski: I can’t have it this early? That sucks. I usually just get the one flu a year.

Comment From neal
so…yusmeiro petit. how great a performance was that?

Dan Szymborski: That was pretty badass. The Nats can complain about bad umpiring, but when it comes down to it, there’s always a chance of that and fundamentally, you lost because you scored 1 run in 18 innings.

Comment From gump
long q: do we have WE detailed enough to detect TTO penalties, l/r splits, fb/gb splits, etc? We do, I think. Why can’t we find some sort of manager analysis based on WE change/best possible WE change given a certain bullpen?

Dan Szymborski: Well, there’s always simulations, but it’s harder to do those on the fly.

Comment From Dunx
How do you like Jose Ramirez? Do you think he should get traded in the offseason?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s far better in relief than as a starter, but I expect the Yankees to hang onto him.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he has the stuff to start in the majors.

Dan Szymborski: His slider’s much better than it used to be, but like a lot of his stuff, he’s just so erratic.

Comment From Krusty
Are a bunch of teams going to go after Andrew Miller now?

Dan Szymborski: I believe so.

Comment From ralph
Do your ZiPs game projections account for the Royals’ ability to stick an elite baserunner in at a high leverage point in the game? (Not to mention the presumed synergy between elite baserunners and high-contact batters.)

Dan Szymborski: Not super specifically.

Comment From Brock Sampson
60/40 is a pretty big gap. Why are the Royals so heavily favored over the Orioles?

Dan Szymborski: It’s useful, but the Royals have gotten a lot more high-leverage situations than is typical.

Dan Szymborski: Couldn’t tell you – I don’t run the simulations.

Comment From gump
is there an article on the history of the MLB guaranteed salary (in comparison to NFL, where most $ isn’t guaranteed)

Dan Szymborski: Not that I know of.

Comment From Todd
What should the Pirates do at Catcher after Martin leaves?

Dan Szymborski: I expect Tony Sanchez is the starting catcher in 2015.

Dan Szymborski: When it comes down to it, someone’s going to pay Martin too much and none of the elder caretaker types really strike me as likely to be all that much better than Sanchez.

Dan Szymborski: I think you offer Martin a QO, but if the numbers get too crazy quickly, you have to walk away. The Pirates already got the likely best year of Martin’s career, after all

Comment From its too dry back east
What is the Mariners’ plan going forward; are they set for another near-WC season as-is? Do they need to do more, and will they?

Dan Szymborski: They need to open the wallet more. They should have been players for most of the interesting free agent position players outside of Cano. You don’t get Cano without the follow up.

Dan Szymborski: They beat the .500ish level I expected, but ti’s a team that still has hole they need to correct.

Comment From Jackie Bouvier
Don’t forget the Smeckler’s powder

Dan Szymborski: Despite the gneral dislike, I prefer a good ol’ balsam specific.

Comment From Joe
Would you agree with the notion that Buck didn’t push any “right” buttons, but rather made decisions that turned out well? I think it’s a little of both.

Dan Szymborski: You’re always going to need to be a little lucky with your decisions. But what I like about Buck is he’s not a paint-by-numbers manager.

Dan Szymborski: Look at Ausmus. Yes, some of his decisions worked out worse than you’d expect by average. But he’s totally paint-by-numbers.

Dan Szymborski: Look at his quotes after the game. He couldn’t use Al Al because he was a “6 or 7th guy” and it was the 8th. That’s idiotic.

Dan Szymborski: Putting labels on things so that you don’t have to actually think about a situation is something incompetent people do.

Comment From Dunx
At least rhinovirus is a fun name!

Comment From Zapp Brannigan
Who’s the #2 Under-25 OF in the game behind Trout for next year and beyond….Harper or Puig? (Stanton turns 25 in Nov.)

Dan Szymborski: Still like Harper.

Comment From Not Gary
Enterovirus!

Comment From Guest
What do I tell my friends who think Ron Gardenhire is a wizard who can fix all of the Tigers problems with one wave of the lineup card?

Dan Szymborski: Tell them that not all wizard are Gandalf. Where was Radagast? Or those dumbass losers Alatar and Pallando?

Comment From James
Who do you think is the favorite to land the Rangers job? Has to be Bogar right?

Dan Szymborski: I think the Rangers showing a pulse long after the season was over on Bogar gives him a steup up

Comment From Krusty
Will the absence of Davis, Wieters & Machado finally catch up with the O’s in the ALCS? With 5 gms remaining in Davis’ suspension, I assume he won’t be activated for the potential last 2 gms of the ALCS.

Dan Szymborski: I think the Royals are a good matchup for the O’s overall. They’re less likely to break a game open. Sure, you prefer to have them, but if ifs and buts were candy and nuts, etc.

Comment From Angels Fan
Cures for my depression? Hockey?

Dan Szymborski: Imagining that you *could* be watching the Raiders but you don’t have to?

Comment From Krusty
On a scale of 1 to 10, where does this last week of playoff baseball rank in regards to your history of watching MLB playoffs?

Dan Szymborski: Solid 8 or 9. Some damn good games.

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
After the mlb season, what is your favorite sport to follow?

Dan Szymborski: Football

Comment From Phil
Considering the way they are built and the # of options in the talent pool at the respective positions, isn’t Hardy the much bigger FA target for the O’s to sign in the off-season over Cruz? I see many assuming we sign Cruz for 3 years and Hardy goes to the Yankees, but I think replacing Cruz who will not repeat this performance is a much easier task. Especially since the knee issues likely spell a 3B-career for Machado.

Dan Szymborski: He ought to be. I’d still like to try Machado at short until he proves that he can’t do it, but I think that’s becoming increasingly unlikely.

Dan Szymborski: Hardy’s also less likely to get a crazy price than Cruz.

Comment From phillip k. dick
if we had robot umps, would there be legitimate androids standing behind home plate, or would they just make the boring strike zone cameras official

Dan Szymborski: I think if you had robot umps, you’d see the indication, or maybe even current umps calling it, butno cool androids

:

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Can a players WAR affected by his position infuence his xBAbip for ZiPS projections? Do you even Sabearmetric bro?

Dan Szymborski: No.

:

Comment From neal
petition to officially rename the postseason to the YOSTseason

Comment From Dunx
I was talking about the Indians’ Jose Rameriez SS that’s blocked by Kipnis and Lindor…

Dan Szymborski: You guys gotta be more specific! lol

Dan Szymborski: Actually, I’d see if I could get someone to overpay for Kipnis first.

Comment From Aaron
Which is the real Wil Myers, this year or last year?

Dan Szymborski: Middle.

Dan Szymborski: He’s a B/B+ outfield type – I think he was a little above his likely contribs rookie year

Comment From Wooooo
Flu shots are the a way for the government to track your movements and keep you weak! Fight the system brah!

Dan Szymborski: The government would be very uninterested with my movements.

Comment From gump
Mike Trout Postseason BABIP: 0

Comment From GSon
Does Yasmani Tomas get the kind of deal he should ($ 5 – 9 MM AAV; 4-7 years) or does someone fall down, hit their head and give him that $ 100 MM deal that’s been bandied about?

Dan Szymborski: I think there’s a good shot he’s over 100

Comment From Mooking for Love
i’m trying really hard to not have to root for the royals, but Hosmer bought everyone at McFaddens KC an open bar last night and now my poor brain doesn’t know what to do

Comment From c
What do the NYY do this offseason?

Dan Szymborski: More of the same incompetent, bipolar, dithering.

Comment From Benz
Do you agree that “Buck Showalter” sounds like the name of a riverboat captain?

Dan Szymborski: Not bad.

Comment From Carl Sbad
The league dissuades teams from making deals during the playoffs, right? How will that affect that race for Tomas?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, they dissuade it. Baseball only likes things like leaking A-Rod steroid news during playoffs.

Dan Szymborski: I suspect that someone does a deal, but it’s not announced until an off day.

Comment From LarryA
How should the orioles line up their SPs for the next round?

Dan Szymborski: Probably similarly.

Dan Szymborski: If Gausman’s not starting, the O’s had the exact order I’d go with in the ALDS

Comment From Al Al
I told Brad directly “I will not pitch in the 8th.” Don’t blame him.

Comment From jimmers
As a writter, where do you rank on the 20-80 scale? Which fg writter ranks the highest?

Dan Szymborski: YOu can’t scout yourself!

Comment From DTSS
Under-25 Game: Anthony Rendon.

Comment From LarryA
Does Randall Grinchuck really give the cards a better chance to win than Taveras?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe so. I think it’s recency bias.

Comment From i want to beliebe
Ron Washington resigned so he could get the manager job in Anaheim after Scioscia gets the boot. Has to be it, right?

Dan Szymborski: That’s really mean to Angels fans. DOn’t they feel bad enough today?

Comment From DTSS
Which manager is Saruman?

Dan Szymborski: Bo Porter?

Comment From THE average sports fan
Re: Kimbrel. Isn’t that logic even more relevant for the Reds? Chapman is nice, but a lineup of actual MLB players would be nicer.

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: The Reds either need to fill their holes or rebuild. A rebuilding team doesn’t need an Aroldis Chapman.

Comment From Carl Sbad
Is that American or regular football?

Dan Szymborski: American.

Dan Szymborski: The soccer football is something I just can’t get into. Eveyr World Cup I try watching but I just literally doze off.

Comment From Krusty
LOL @ Alatar and Pallando. What a nerd!

Comment From CWC
There’s some loose speculation out there that Beane might trade Donaldson. Can you see that making sense for the A’s? Seems to me there’s almost no way A’s get back enough for the loss to be worth it, even with JD’s value as high now as it will ever be.

Dan Szymborski: Donaldson is 4 years from free agency. Unless they’re bowled over by an offer — and I think Donaldson’s still a bit underrated — there’s little urgency to make a trade.

Dan Szymborski: First year of super-two arbitration ain’t going to be a lot of money.

Comment From mtsw
Follow up on Hardy question. What do you think he gets offered on FA market? Is 4/50 crazy high or crazy low?

Dan Szymborski: In light of his age, missing power, and relative underappreciation, I dont’ think he gets an offer that high.

Comment From Not Gary
Don Mattingly seems to think every HBP is an inentional attempt to kill one of his players. Doesn’t that mean he should have a lifetime ban for the hundreds of HBP the teams he has managed have delivered?

Dan Szymborski: If I was playing in the same division as the Diamondbacks, I’d be paranoid about HBPs too.

Comment From SuedePumaJayBuhner
is there a good article you can point me to, for a friend who is exceptionally confused on how the White Sox are the league leader “in clutch” yet he insists they can not possible be any more clutch than the next team. its driving me nuts that he wont look at this as a decent predictor of the past.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t quite understand the question. But punches fix lots of stuff.

Comment From kal26
Hypothetical scenario: The Phillies current ownership decides they don’t care about the team’s future or their money and they command ruben amaro to build a world series contender in 2015, no matter what the cost in terms of money or prospects. What (if anything) can he do to make the Phillies a legitimate world series contender?

Dan Szymborski: Well, they could sign Scherzer, Lester, Shields, and Hanley.

Comment From wizard
Is “Buck Showalter” the only manager’s name that could be read as a complete sentence?

Dan Szymborski: Don Mattingly.

Dan Szymborski: You can Mike Redmond or or Matheny if you’re a television producer.

Comment From kal26
Now, what are the phillies really going to do this offseason?

Dan Szymborski: Make one expensive bad signing for a bad, a middle-price bad pitcher signing, and sell Dom Brown at super low.

Comment From Krusty
watch the LA backpage escorts website traffic for spikes if Wash is being considered for the Angels.

Comment From Ragnaros the Fartlord
Are you watching the Hearthstone regionals?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, it’s on my laptop right now.

Comment From Chapman
Shouldn’t the rebuilding reds try me at starter? My fastball would still be lethal even if it lost 4 or 5 MPH, and I have a slider and 90 mph changeup too. Why am I not a starter already?

Dan Szymborski: That’s a long, long dispute. They should, but the Reds haven’t really been willing to take a risk and Chapman likes closing.

Comment From Ben
Likelihood that Seattle is the team to overpay Cruz? Feels like that one is destined.

Dan Szymborski: I actually don’t think the M’s do go after Cruz after being snubbed last year

Comment From Jake deBomb
who is the player who surprises the most when he gets traded this winter?

Dan Szymborski: Can we still call Samardzija a surprise?

Comment From gen8008
The Yankees call up the Rockies and offer them Luis Severino, Gardner, Betances, and Pineda for Tulo. The Rockies do what? (The reason why I’m asking this is because my friend who is a Yankees fan thinks the Rockies would do this trade, and i think they would laugh in the yankees’ faces.)

Dan Szymborski: No.

Dan Szymborski: The Rockies wouldn’t do that.

Comment From SuedePumaJayBuhner
why are the royals WS chances ridiculously higher than everyone elses (30.5%) that seems pretty ridiculous

Dan Szymborski: Again, that is not a question that I can answer.

Dan Szymborski: Why are you guys always asking me internal FanGraphs questions that I’ve stated over and over against I can’t answer?

Comment From mtsw
Contrary to it’s reputation, OPACY has actually rated as a pitchers’ park in 2014. Worth noting or just noise in the sample?

Dan Szymborski: one-year park factors are amazingly noisy.

Dan Szymborski: There’s signal there, but you’ll never find it.

Comment From Natitude Adjuster
It’s ebola, Dan. Sorry to be the one to tell you. You should probably just go ahead and quarantine yourself. Go O’s!

Dan Szymborski: That seems rather unlikely.

Comment From a lampshade
If you were to become pregnant like Arnold Schwarzenegger’s character in Junior as part of a scientific study, and then the baby you gave birth to was of a different race than expected, would you file a lawsuit that makes the front page of the Huffington Post?

Dan Szymborski: Depends on what I agreed to as part of the study.

Dan Szymborski: HOwever, it’s unlikely that I would agree. I’m not particularly interested in having children *without* having to go through pregnancy.

Comment From Guest
Speaking of Dom Brown, do you think he’s worth trying to resurrect for a team like the Cubs? On second thought, they may have their hands full making adjustments to the likes of Javy B..

Dan Szymborski: He’s worth a flyer.

Comment From Brandon
Bad news Dan: Your symptoms are consistent with those displayed by ebola

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t even given any symptoms!

Dan Szymborski: I said I’m tired and that’s in part because I took a bunch of cough medicine.

Comment From Padre fan
In what realm of possibility could Rueben Amaro end up with Kennedy, Maybin, Evereth Cabrera and Carlos Quentin for Hamels?

Dan Szymborski: None.

Comment From chuckles
Lol the M’s sign all of the big sabermetric-maligned sluggers without having room for them all, and the one they don’t have at some part of the season ends up being not only the best of the bunch but one of the better hitters of the league

Comment From Derek
I feel like V-Mart is going to be the source of a lot of regrets this offseason..

Dan Szymborski: Agree

Comment From Guest
I bump to one-year park factors with my top dropped

Comment From mtsw
Would the Orioles be stupid to offer Steve Pearce a $15M/3 year extension (given that he still is under team control for 2015)? Would Pearce be stupid to accept it?

Dan Szymborski: It’s probably worth it even if it’s risky – $5 million doesn’t by much in FA anymore.

Comment From THE average sports fan
Why does Fangraphs not offer complete dental insurance? Also the choice in company laptops is awful. Please fix all of this.

Comment From Guest
Dan be robotrippin

Comment From Dave
Is Williams gone, if the nats crash out tonight? I’m not a fan of either side, but i don’t know how you could possibly justify taking out Zimmmerman and then what happened next only magnified his stupidity.

Dan Szymborski: I disagree – I think it was a justifiable move that didn’t work out.

Dan Szymborski: Zimmerman was all over the place in the Panik at-bat. Look at him, he was overthrowing.

Dan Szymborski: Teh whole purpsoe of a reliever is to get those high-leverage outs.

Comment From JW
Re: Is there an article on the history of the MLB guaranteed salary (in comparison to NFL, where most $ isn’t guaranteed). Just google and read anything on the history of labor relations in the two respective leagues. MLB – strong union, remarkable leadership, insane contract; minor leaguers get hosed. NFL – Owners like money, get to keep much of it; players get short shrift, concussions.

Dan Szymborski: The Lords of the Realm by Helyar is one of the most fun reads on the subject, but it’s baseball specific, not football.

Comment From lingustics
Why are Pearce and Pierce pronounced the same? Is Pearse pronounced the same as well?

Dan Szymborski: Didn’t schoolhouse rock do an episode on heterographs?

Comment From sean
how nervous should i be about the nats’ chances to win 3 in a row?

Dan Szymborski: If you’re a Nats fan, very

Comment From Northsider
Dan I can cure you. You need to find a pharmacy that sells leeches… well a pharmacy or bait shop.

Comment From Dave
Zimmerman had retired 20 straight (i believe) before walking Panik, to me its a kneejerk reaction that wasnt nescesary and it backfired. But fair enough if you think the opposite, as Paul Swydan says: DISAGREEMENTS!

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it was an *obvious* decision either way

Comment From SuedePumaJayBuhner
re:clutch question. my buddy is confused about how the White sox can be leading the league in clutch but finished 17 games out of the division lead. my explanation doesnt seem to be helping. any suggestions?

Dan Szymborski: Oh, in that case I think my initial prescription of punching works.

Comment From neal
is heterographs the next fangraphs offshoot or something? seems discriminatory

:

Dan Szymborski: That’s the FanGraphs redesign.

Dan Szymborski: On that note, time for me to end this for another week!

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for sticking around for sick/drugged Dan. Hope to see you all next week!