Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/11/16
January 11, 2016
| 12:05 |
: Noon: A Time for Chats.
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| 12:05 |
: Welcome to the Dan Szymborsk Hour of Glower, in which all questions will be answered by flippant remarks!
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| 12:05 |
: You know it’s quality when the host can’t spell his own last name.
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| 12:06 |
: Chatter? Chatatrix? Chat Chairman? Commission of Chat?
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| 12:06 |
: The zips for the Mets has a lot of power projected for Michael Conforto (26 HR) – most of us has him pegged in the 18-20 area. Why the divergence?
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| 12:06 |
: Well, I don’t know exact process most of you used because I’m not in your brains! That would be weird.
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| 12:07 |
: All I can say is that hitting homers in the FSL and Eastern League is no easy task.
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| 12:08 |
: Though Steamer says fewer HRs too, but I don’t run Steamer, so I can’t give much insight into the reasoning for the exact number.
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| 12:08 |
: Also, with regards to Mets Zips – I understand Matz is an inexperienced rookie – but 2zWar seems lot…no?
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| 12:09 |
: Could you rephrase? Not sure what you’re asking.
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| 12:09 |
: Thoughts on the Cardinals and Chris Correa?
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| 12:09 |
: Hard to tell as there’s so little public information.
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| 12:09 |
: I think this is something we can look back on 2-3 years down the road.
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| 12:09 |
: argue why college players in power 5 should not be paid; please?
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| 12:09 |
: I will not argue that.
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| 12:09 |
: What does ZIPS predict as for how many Digital Dandy references will be made in today’s chat?
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| 12:10 |
: I don’t do any Szymborski-based projecting in ZiPS because ZiPS has a CoI – if it projects bad, I can downgrade it’s processor.
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| 12:10 |
: “Oh, you say I suck, huh? Well, that 3930k can become a Core2Duo so quickly!”
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| 12:10 |
: Who wins in a Bowie Brawl of all his various personas?
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| 12:10 |
: Ziggy Stardust. Potential for a Spiders from Mars runin.
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| 12:11 |
: Please rank: Matz, Rodon, Eduardo Rodriguez.
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| 12:11 |
: Tie, then Eddy.
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| 12:11 |
: Also, you’re totally overrated.
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| 12:12 |
: Later Han was a decadent, spent dynasty and your best military achievement, conquering Shu, was done treacherously.
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| 12:12 |
: Hey Dan,
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| 12:12 |
: Hi!
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| 12:12 |
: Biggest loss in the past 30 days – Lemmy Killmister, Scott Weiland or David Bowie. All huge personalities that left a major impression on music. I’d rank: Bowie, Lemmy….Weiland
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| 12:12 |
: Don’t like ranking people’s deaths because they mean different things to different people.
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| 12:13 |
: I enjoy Bowie’s work more than Motörhead or Stone Temple Pilots but others disagree and it seems kinda douchey of me to rank their deaths in this manner.
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| 12:13 |
: Do you think Cespedes and/or Upton end up settling for 1 year contracts?
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| 12:13 |
: Dan
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| 12:13 |
: Hey Dan! As a closer, who do you think will have the better year – Britton, K Giles, or Ramos? I am leaning towards Giles, but I am interested to hear your thoughts. Thanks.
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| 12:13 |
: I’m not a closer.
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| 12:13 |
: But Giles.
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| 12:13 |
: Don Zimbobskee, you digital dandy, please provide your source for the zips projections you’re always going on about.
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| 12:14 |
: A hobo runs them and I give him some of my rum for them.
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| 12:14 |
: Better option for the Braves in LF, Oliveria or the field?
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| 12:14 |
: Olivera. I don’t think he’s actually going to be any good, but there’s a lot of variance here becasue so much is not known. Braves should want high variance players right now.
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| 12:14 |
: Why do you rely so heavily on junk stats like ERA and OPS?
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| 12:15 |
: Communication is more important than exact accuracy.
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| 12:15 |
: For any argument, I use the simplest-constructed statistics that makes the point with intellectual honesty.
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| 12:16 |
: Does ZiPS project Musgrove to be the Astros’ 3rd best SP next season?
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| 12:16 |
: Haven’t finished final Astros ZiPS and this is kinda cheating to ask.
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| 12:16 |
: DePo leaves baseball for the Cleveland Browns. IYO, is there enough data available in football to help a team make quantum leaps forward? The NFL season is really just a really long, spread out small sample size of 16 games.
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| 12:16 |
: I don’t know about quantum leaps, but there’s also a lot of opportunity to try new things.
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| 12:16 |
: Which is more likely? Cleveland winning 95 games this year, or Cleveland winning 75 games this year?
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| 12:17 |
: 75, simply because I think they’re a few games under 85 or so right now
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| 12:17 |
: Will we see a female international signing this year after no one signed Melissa Mayeux last year?
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| 12:18 |
: We’re still a long way from female baseball players, so probably know. Even when it does happen, it’ll probably be a niche role. It’s simply the reality of genetic differences in physical ability.
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| 12:19 |
: In the past year, the Nats have shunted aside 3 young players for veterans (Roark for Scherzer, Storen for Papelbon and now Taylor for Revere). Are these three isolated instances or is this an organizational strategy of some sort?
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| 12:19 |
: Well, they’re in win now mode and in at least two of the cases, the players involved are upgrades. Possibly 3, but I don’t want to belabor the point.
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| 12:20 |
: What do you think of the Dodgers strategy of stockpiling as many high upside injury-risk pitchers as possible? (or do you disagree with that categorization of their strategy?)
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| 12:20 |
: I think that it’s more a side effect of getting shut out for the big names than anything.
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| 12:20 |
: ZiPS is unsurprisingly out on the Orioles, but it seems like they have a ton of room to improve by adding a cromulent 1B, outfielder and DH. Assuming they get at least average guys for each of those slots is this a team you can squint into being in contention still?
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| 12:20 |
: Not like there’s much ability to add players.
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| 12:20 |
: So many of the interesting players are gone.
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| 12:21 |
: I know I’ve said this before, but imagine that the O’s sign Chris Davis and pay him $22 million a year, under the offer that was on the table.
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| 12:22 |
: Now the O’s are essentially a $140 million team with essentially the same roster as last season, with Kim and Trumbo instead of Chen.
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| 12:22 |
: And that team wasn’t all that good.
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| 12:22 |
: In honor of Mr. Chasse will you be doing a chat using only smoke signals?
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| 12:22 |
: If only I could!
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| 12:22 |
: JJ Hardy: bounceback candidate or fork receptacle? Disasterous 2015 but easy to believe he can hit again if he’s recovered fully.
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| 12:22 |
: Bounceback, but not to previous levels.
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| 12:22 |
: ZiPS projects the Mets to have what Eno dubbed “the antithesis of the stars-and-scrubs” method of playing. What are your thoughts on playing a high floor, low ceiling team (in general, not specifically for the 2016 Mets) of position players?
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| 12:22 |
: It depends on the organization.
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| 12:22 |
: Gun to your head, why would I put a gun to your head?
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| 12:23 |
: I can think of a number of reasons.
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| 12:23 |
: HR power in the free agent market right now: slightly underrated, way underrated, or rated just right?
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| 12:23 |
: Rated
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| 12:23 |
: Dandie day, eh?
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| 12:23 |
: It is 17 degrees outside so no
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| 12:23 |
: How do you project the Cardinals’ new acquisition, Seung-Hwan Oh? Given the huge haul closers like Kimbrel have netted recently, could the Cardinals move Rosenthal?
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| 12:23 |
: Haven’t run it yet.
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| 12:23 |
: What’s your biggest amount of money wager on a game?
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| 12:25 |
: Never more than $100. I only bet on games in which I see an opportunity. I prefer longer-term prop bets
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| 12:25 |
: Gorgonzola, the cheese that sounds most like a monster
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| 12:25 |
: Best option for Jays fifth starter? Hutchison/Chavez or stretch out one of Sanchez/Osuna?
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| 12:25 |
: I’d rather go with Sanchez. Most interesting upside.
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| 12:25 |
: Zach Britton for Javier Baez or Jorge Soler make sense for both sides? Britton already getting pricey as an arb-eligible closer and is arguably surplus to requirements given the Orioles other bullpen arms.
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| 12:25 |
: Yeah, but Orioles won’t do it and I don’t really see a compelling need for the Cubs to do it.
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| 12:27 |
: Angels beat reporter suggested Blackmon for Tropeano and Bedrosian over the weekend. Seem fair? Does to me.
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| 12:27 |
: I’ve heard crazier ideas.
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| 12:28 |
: I’m puzzled by why St. Louis seems to be hot to grab a non-special Korean reliever, given the depth of their pitching staff. Is Oh really the best they can do? More ominously, with that “signing” and the whiff on Heyward, is it possible that they’re having trouble signing non-White-Anglo free agents from this side of the lake because of the unpleasantness in Ferguson?
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| 12:28 |
: Why not upgrade when you seen aopportunity?
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| 12:28 |
: Not every signing needs to be a grand slam and a hard single doesn’t make a grand slam less likely.
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| 12:29 |
: And I’d more chalk it up to the fact that the Cardinals have been getting outbid.
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| 12:29 |
: If the Astros sign one of Chen, Gallardo, or Kennedy do they become the favorite to win the AL? They might already be anyway with the watered down nature of the league this year
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| 12:29 |
: Well, not Kennedy.
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| 12:29 |
: But the AL is tight enough that Chen or Gallardo may do it.
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| 12:29 |
: Kennedy, on the other hand, just isn’t very good.
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| 12:30 |
: Given that he’s going to spend the year as the backup, should the Orioles consider Caleb Joseph a trade asset? Lots of team control left but he’s already nearly 30 so unlikely to have better years ahead of him.
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| 12:31 |
: I think he has more value to the O’s than trade value.
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| 12:31 |
: Is David Ortiz a hall of famer
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| 12:31 |
: Not yet, but I’d argue his playoff record puts him over the top.
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| 12:31 |
: No, Edgar’s a better candidate, but if we refuse to elect anybody not as good as Edgar, we’re blocking out lots of deserving candidates.
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| 12:32 |
: Do you have any long-term concerns about Brantley’s shoulder?
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| 12:32 |
: Yes. I want to see him hit before I stop worrying. Shoulders can be a big deal.
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| 12:32 |
: Ventura, Volquez, Medlen, Duffy, Young. Not exactly a group you can bank on for 1,000 innings. Zimmer in the wings for what he’s worth, but seems to me the Royals could use an innings eater fallback. Agree? Buehrle with that defense would make sense not?
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| 12:32 |
: Buehrle would be fun. More likely the Royals will sign someone I absolutely hate and Dave Eiland will warlock them to 3 WAR.
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| 12:33 |
: No Articles on Piazza HOF?
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| 12:33 |
: I don’t write articles on everything!
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| 12:33 |
: Dan! How I’ve missed you.
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| 12:33 |
: Lies.
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| 12:33 |
: is there a rhyme or reason on your zip release dates? (im sure its been asked a billion times)
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| 12:33 |
: Yes. I know the release order. You guys just don’t.
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| 12:33 |
: Thoughts on James Shields this year? He had his highest K/9 last year but also saw a bump in ERA/WHIP
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| 12:33 |
: I think he’ll be a fine #2 again.
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| 12:33 |
: When can I access ZiPS projections via the “projections” tab at FG? Once you’ve released all teams individually?
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| 12:33 |
: Yeah. No reason to add them piecemeal
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| 12:33 |
: What’s your hypothetical HoF ballot look like? Other than the PED guys, anyone you feel like the voters have overlooked or overrated?
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| 12:34 |
: I went over this on Twitter, which you know!
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| 12:34 |
: When I have a ballot, my thinking will likely be thus:
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| 12:35 |
: – Wait as long as possible so as many ballots have been tallied as I can. First the guys around 75%, then the guys around 5%, then the guys in the final year to give them max final % vote for committee to point at. Only then do I go from most to least deserving (with priority on guys who can get in)
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| 12:35 |
: Revere Stoten a low impact win win deal?
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| 12:35 |
: I don’t think it’s a major move.
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| 12:35 |
: ZiPS pegs the Cubs rotation with a better projection than that of the Mets. Do you agree?
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| 12:35 |
: Yes, though I love the Mets rotation.
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| 12:36 |
: Based on ZIPS projections, would the Cubs be wasting Adam Warren by using him as a RP as opposed to a SP?
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| 12:36 |
: Remember that was theoretical, assuming he can handle starting.
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| 12:36 |
: If the moon was a piece of pizza – would ya eat it?
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| 12:36 |
: Well, not the whole thing.
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| 12:36 |
: was it too hot to have a chat last week?
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| 12:36 |
: I was out most of Monday morning and early afternoon.
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| 12:36 |
: Who is your current favorite catcher?
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| 12:36 |
: Tuffy Gosewisch is an amazing catcher name.
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| 12:36 |
: Does ZiPs project Quality Starts as well? Can this info be found publicly anywhere?
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| 12:37 |
: No.
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| 12:37 |
: Most interesting thing to come out of the Chris Correa saga is that he found Cardinals data on the Houston servers. I wonder if there’s more ‘hacking’ going on beyond using old passwords to access info.
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| 12:37 |
: I want to see information, not Correa’s claims.
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| 12:38 |
: In general terms hitters slash 30-50 points higher at home than on the road. Has anybody figured out what percentage of that is due to run prevention being better at home vs hitters hitting better at home?
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| 12:38 |
: I don’t think you can easily separate the why.
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| 12:38 |
: Eno dubbed the Mets’ depth-heavy approach the antithesis of stars-and-scrubs. Do you have a preference between stars-and-scrubs and depth-heavy teams in general?
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| 12:38 |
: I have no preference. Didn’t I answer this above?
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| 12:39 |
: Rays don’t have a catcher or any money. How about Lucroy for some combination of Guerreri/Honeywell/Faria/Bauers?
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| 12:39 |
: I think Lucroy’s a better fit on a better team.
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| 12:39 |
: Have you (or anyone else, for that matter) done work to investigate any average accuracy differentials between ZiPS and other projection systems?
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| 12:40 |
: There are always scattered pieces that you can find.
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| 12:40 |
: I don’t write any myself, because obvious COI
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| 12:40 |
: Do the Jays have enough to contend for the AL East once again?
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| 12:40 |
: Yes, because there aren’t really any really good teams in the AL
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| 12:40 |
: Rank in order of which is more predictive of team quality: 16 NFL games, 16 NBA games, 16 NHL games, 16 MLB games?
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| 12:40 |
: NFL, NBA, MLB, not enough of a knowledgebase for NHL
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| 12:40 |
: Passan thinks MLB should lower the boom on the Cards for hackgate. At a minimum, I have a hard time seeing them eligible for competitive balance picks when it appears they were doing their own competitive balancing. What say you?
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| 12:41 |
: I just want any penalty to be done by a fair process.
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| 12:41 |
: Help me…I can’t stop reading Sean Penn!
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| 12:41 |
: It’s like a trainwreck
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| 12:41 |
: If you were the Jays, who would you stretch out as a starter this year, Aaron Sanchez or Roberto Osuna?
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| 12:41 |
: Sanchez
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| 12:42 |
: You must pick one, what player from Major League do you want on your team? Roger Dorn, right?
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| 12:42 |
: Clu Haywood
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| 12:42 |
: In 5 years, will ZIPS be friendlier to Benintendi or Swanson?
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| 12:42 |
: Ask me in 5 years
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| 12:42 |
: Do you like the Jays in the AL East? Or are the Bosox the team to beat?
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| 12:43 |
: I think the division is close enough that The Field is the team to beat.
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| 12:43 |
: (I’m saving offtopics for the lightning round)
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| 12:43 |
: Is it impossible to write an article about Lucius Fox without making a Batman joke, pun or reference?
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| 12:43 |
: No
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| 12:43 |
: What does ZiPs project the winning lottery numbers to be?
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| 12:43 |
: I’m not splitting my billion with you.
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| 12:44 |
: What do you think Lando did after Return of the Jedi?
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| 12:45 |
: Since he was already wearing Han’s clothes, he pretended to be Han to pick up women. Not that he’d have to given that he’s Billy Dee Williams.
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| 12:45 |
: Re: ZIPS — do you run all of the projections at one go and wait to release them individually, or run each projection separately? Why?
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| 12:45 |
: I do it scattershot. I project things when i need to and I fill out organizations when it’s time.
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| 12:45 |
: I know Britton is elite and Baez and Soler are highly risky, but I still feel players with their impact ceiling are far more valuable than any reliever. Does that sound like homerism or simply a difference in opinion on reliever value?
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| 12:46 |
: I’m not big on closers.
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| 12:46 |
: Have you ever played any of the OotP games? How did you find them? (OotP is on for $10 and sounds like it could be fun, looking for second opinions).
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| 12:46 |
: Playing them for a long time. DOn’t know how I first heard.
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| 12:46 |
: have you addressed the Chass comments at length anywhere? If not will you?
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| 12:46 |
: I’ve talked about it at length on Twitter.
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| 12:46 |
: Every year people say Boras messed up by pushing back too hard on teams and every year Boras’s clients still end up getting they were looking for. Think Chen and Davis will end up with their big contracts they want?
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| 12:46 |
: They’ll do fine, I think.
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| 12:46 |
: Sorry – 2 expected WAR for Matz – that seems a bit low for such a talented kid – I was wondering the process there and how kids like him are projected
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| 12:46 |
: Not a lot of IP projected.
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| 12:46 |
: I think I’d call you greedy!
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| 12:46 |
: Who’s likely to deliver more value to a team? Chris Davis playing where ever he ends up or Pedro Alvarez DHing for the Orioles?
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| 12:46 |
: Davis
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| 12:47 |
: What do you think of “fame” or “coolness” as a HOF factor? Vlad Guerrero wasn’t as good as Walker, but in some sense he’s more a representative player. Relatedly, Walker is totally being shafted for playing in Coors, right?
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| 12:47 |
: I think it’s dumb.
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| 12:47 |
: And have you seen baseball writers? We should not be in the business of judging cool.
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| 12:47 |
: *I’m* probably in the top third of coolness among writers and I’m not cool.
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| 12:48 |
: How close to the announcement day do you have to submit your ballot?
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| 12:48 |
: 12/31 is final, if I’m not mistaken
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| 12:48 |
: What did shoewizard have to do to get an interview with you for ZiPS?
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| 12:49 |
: Well, me and him go way back – he’s an old Primate.
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| 12:49 |
: But I’d answer questions for anyone that asked.
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| 12:49 |
: Though I occasionally miss email.
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| 12:49 |
: Because I get a lot and it can be a challenge responding to everything.
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| 12:49 |
: You can say a lot of bad things about me, but being inaccessible isn’t one of them
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| 12:49 |
: Do you think there is room for improvement with Michael Pineda or is he at what his likely peak is?
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| 12:50 |
: It’s relaly hard to tell given his injury history.
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| 12:50 |
: Read any good baseball books lately?
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| 12:50 |
: I am so behind on reading.
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| 12:50 |
: How bad are splitters for your elbow?
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| 12:50 |
: Bad. As are fastballs, changeups, curves, sliders, screwballs. Pitching is the worst thing for pitchers.
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| 12:52 |
: Thoughts on the Blue Jays?
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| 12:52 |
: They play in Toronto. I like their 80s uniforms.
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| 12:52 |
: Which pitching coach do you think is the best at “warlocking” success out of reclamation projects? Eiland? Bosio? Searage? Other?
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| 12:52 |
: Gotta say Eiland as he got VOLQUEZ to not completely suck
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| 12:52 |
: Easy to bash the Reds decisions lately, but what are a couple of things they could seriously do to get competitive again?
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| 12:52 |
: Owner stay out of things, Jocketty axed.
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| 12:52 |
: (And I’m not answering plot-related questions about star wars until it’s out of theater)
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| 12:52 |
: How do I become a professional Digital Dandy?
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| 12:53 |
: Need a top hat.
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| 12:53 |
: if someone posted a star wars force awakens spoiler, has enough time passed that you would post it in the chat?
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| 12:53 |
: No.
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| 12:53 |
: Once it’s out of theaters, well, you had plenty of time at that point.
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| 12:53 |
: Do you know anything about Steamer? Does it always project saves to certain levels, or does that update later int he off-season?
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| 12:53 |
: You should ask Jared Cross, not me.
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| 12:53 |
: Baseball writers are so cool they had to have a dress code to ensure they wore the right clothes.
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| 12:53 |
: No spandex. I was hurt.
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| 12:54 |
: Joe Sheehan mentioned a Cubs/Angels swap of Trout for Schwarber, Soler, Hendricks, Torres and Happ. Where do you stand on a trade like this? I think it would be a win/win for both teams, maybe the Angels ask for Baez instead of Torres but that wouldn’t be a deal breaker for me
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| 12:54 |
: It’s fun, but probably too many moving parts.
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| 12:54 |
: If you voted for a HoF ballot strategically (leaving off a shoe-in to vote for 10 others, for instance) would you release a faked ballot to avoid taking shit for it? I sort of suspect at least one of the Griffey non-voters did this.
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| 12:54 |
: No. I stand behind everything I say.
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| 12:54 |
: Journalism isn’t for wusses.
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| 12:55 |
: Think .280/.350/.465 with 25 HR 90 RBI is realistic for Tulo this year if he plays atleast 130 games this year?
|
| 12:55 |
: I’d take the under – that’s a little too aggressive. At those numbers, he’s about a 6 win player.
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| 12:55 |
: And while he has been before, it’s not the over/under point
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| 12:55 |
: Are the Indians making a mistake by not being more aggressive this offseason?
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| 12:56 |
: Yes
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| 12:56 |
: Dan, searage actually got volquez to not totally such a year before eiland got him
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| 12:56 |
: He was better in KC than Pittsburgh.
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| 12:56 |
: He still had the high FIP in Pittsburgh. Dropped considerably moving to KC (and in a DH league)
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| 12:56 |
: Favorite comedian?
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| 12:56 |
: Greg Giraldo (RIP)
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| 12:57 |
: Oops, meant to star that
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| 12:57 |
: Will Mo Rivera be the 1st 100%er?
|
| 12:57 |
: No
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| 12:57 |
: Chase Utley is the all time leader in SB%, does this surprise you?
|
| 12:57 |
: Actually yes. I did not know this.
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| 12:57 |
: I would’ve assumed it was someone like Beltran
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| 12:58 |
: When you run ZiPS for a whole team, before sending the results to Carson or whomever, what are you looking for? Such as: names spelled right, projections aren’t like 500 OPS+, etc… Do you look over each player to make sure that ZiPS didn
|
| 12:58 |
: Nothing in particular
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| 12:58 |
: Names being misspelled isn’t a problem unless it’s misspelled in the database
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| 12:58 |
: I didn’t die. I was asking if you made sure ZiPS didn’t have an error in the algorithm for the player.
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| 12:58 |
: Any errors are usually if I hit a key while looking at data and screw up something
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| 12:59 |
: Like when Jose Molina was projected to hit 1200 HRs.
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| 12:59 |
: Easy to get a high SB% when middle infielders are afraid to cover the base. Sorry, still bitter.
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| 12:59 |
: If the ZiPS machine had a voice how loud would it cry to be put down?
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| 12:59 |
: The ZiPS machine has a pretty good life. It doesn’t have to do a ton of work. It has a stylish bitfenix prodigy case and a good CPU.
|
| 1:00 |
: When running your ZiPS projections – how much of it is just plug and play basedon your input variables, and how much of it is you going in and editing the underlying data (ie adjusting for position change and such)?
|
| 1:00 |
: Most of it is plug and play. I just check the position before hitting run and anything obviously wrong that I need to double chekc.
|
| 1:01 |
: Like, for instance, there’s a player in the comp list called “Roger McDowell” but is a lefthanded reliever in the 90s, so I’m not sure who that actually is.
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| 1:01 |
: What do you consider to be the biggest weakness to ZiPS?
|
| 1:01 |
: Still hard to deal with injuries in as detailed a manner as I would ideally like
|
| 1:02 |
: Most of the stuff I’d like in ZiPS is stuff that doens’t exist.
|
| 1:02 |
: What language do you run ZiPS in? Python?
|
| 1:02 |
: I wish. ZiPS is a gnarly mess like PECOTA was before they re-did it from the ground up.
|
| 1:02 |
: I’m a number guy, not a programmer.
|
| 1:02 |
: Larry Walker is a hall of famer. Agree?
|
| 1:03 |
: Well, no, because he literally is not in the Hall of Fame. But he should be.
|
| 1:03 |
: Python’s very easy to learn. Might be worth doing.
|
| 1:03 |
: Probably, but it’s kinda a time thing.
|
| 1:03 |
: I use Excel with lots of high-end plugins and Statistica for most of my work. That’s what I’m comfortable with.
|
| 1:04 |
: I’m not a full-time data analyst. When it comes down to it, I’m paid to be a writer with an interesting secondary skillset.
|
| 1:05 |
: And from a time-management standpoint, ZiPS works well. So it’s hard to invest time in a skill that I’m very unlikely to really get much use out of professionally.
|
| 1:05 |
: Maybe at some point I’ll *pay* someone to do it. That’s more of a possibility.
|
| 1:05 |
: OK, Lightning Round time.
|
| 1:05 |
: The rules of the Lightning Round are simple.
|
| 1:07 |
: I must answer every question, so long as it’s off-topic, even if I have no particular insight.
|
| 1:07 |
: With the exception of very personal things or work-related.
|
| 1:07 |
: And I must continue until I’ve caught up. Or I get bored. Or need to do something else.
|
| 1:07 |
: (Lightning Round isn’t a suicide pact)
|
| 1:07 |
: And GO
|
| 1:07 |
: Clemson or Alabama tonight?
|
| 1:07 |
: Alabama. Think the physicality wins it.
|
| 1:07 |
: Lightning Round: Rank in order the top 4 pro leagues in North America (MLB, NFL, NHL, NBA) and when they will have a female suit up for them? What year does the first one happen? FWIW, I say MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, 2028.
|
| 1:07 |
: Probably that order, but longer than 2028 unelss it’s a stunt
|
| 1:08 |
: Favorite Bowie work?
|
| 1:08 |
: Hunky Dory
|
| 1:08 |
: Have you played rebel galaxy?
|
| 1:08 |
: Have not.
|
| 1:08 |
: Hey Dave…If you were a hotdog….and you were starving to death…would you eat yourself?
|
| 1:08 |
: I would hope not. Have some dignity Dan
|
| 1:08 |
: Sarah Silverman: Funny or not?
|
| 1:08 |
: Yes, but not top tier
|
| 1:08 |
: Am I the only one who thinks Lucas Duda only speaks one word…and it’s “Duda” and he uses it much the way the Smurfs use the word “smurf”?
|
| 1:08 |
: That would be awesome
|
| 1:08 |
: Favorite 5 of my songs?
|
| 1:09 |
: Uh, Space Oddity, Young Americans, Under PRessure, Changes, Suffragette City
|
| 1:09 |
: DId I spell that correctly?
|
| 1:09 |
: Have you played Mage lately? If you were going to, what playing style do you feel best suits the current state of the game?
|
| 1:10 |
: Freeze mage is the best version of mage right now, I think.
|
| 1:10 |
: But the meta changes rapidly
|
| 1:10 |
: Did you play any Mini-Metro? Fun and addictive time waster tho inexplicably not available on mobile platforms yet.
|
| 1:10 |
: I have not
|
| 1:10 |
: Does it piss you off if someone you don’t know is over your shoulder looking at your phone to see what you’re doing?
|
| 1:10 |
: Not particularly. don’t like it but I don’t really care
|
| 1:10 |
: NFL wildcard playoffs have been very exciting, any thoughts?
|
| 1:10 |
: Very
|
| 1:10 |
: I thought Hedberg was your favorite comedian?
|
| 1:11 |
: My favorite things vary depending on the mood I’m in.
|
| 1:11 |
: You can ask me tomorrow and it’ll be Hedberg. Or maybe Louis C.K. or Oswalt.
|
| 1:11 |
: When you play OOTP how much do you micromanage? Do you set each day’s lineup? Do you play out the games individually? I find it infuriating to let the AI do anything more than manage non-prospect minor leaguers even tho it means the game progresses at a snail’s pace.
|
| 1:11 |
: When I play OOTP, I pick a role. I don’t play as both GM and manager.
|
| 1:11 |
: If I’m GMing, I don’t make decisions that a GM wouldn’t normally make.
|
| 1:12 |
: Which of your household items do you most suspect is a transformer?
|
| 1:12 |
: I have a few actual transformers somewhere.
|
| 1:12 |
: Maybe a cat. Possibly my tortie cat who doesn’t seem to shed, barf, and I swear I have not seen her use the litter box in 12 years I’ve had her.
|
| 1:12 |
: Hypothetical : There is one tweak that you could make to ZiPS that would raise it’s accuracy level to 100%. Teams are lining up for you. The catch is…you have to give all the credit to cistulli. Do you want zips to succeed that badly? or would you burn it to the ground
|
| 1:13 |
: Since I know 100% accuracy is a theoretical impossibility even if I knew everyone’s exact underlying probabilities, it would mean that ZiPS is using information gleaned from time travel, so I could not support it.
|
| 1:14 |
: Favorite island?
|
| 1:14 |
: Assateague? I haven’t been on a ton of islands
|
| 1:14 |
: Percentage of US states visited?
|
| 1:14 |
: I dunno, 70?
|
| 1:15 |
: No alaska, hawaii, alabama, mississippi, arkansas, oklahoma, arizona, new mexico, montana, idaho, dakotas
|
| 1:15 |
: so 78%
|
| 1:15 |
: err 76%
|
| 1:15 |
: Predict the results of the Iowa and NH GOP contests. Who comes in 1st, 2nd and 3rd in each?
|
| 1:16 |
: Cruz/Trump/Rubio, Trump/Rubio/Cruz
|
| 1:16 |
: Will you play Civ V with me?
|
| 1:16 |
: I haven’t played in a long time.
|
| 1:16 |
: Favorite Gatorade flavor?
|
| 1:16 |
: Orange
|
| 1:16 |
: Shoe size?
|
| 1:16 |
: 12.5
|
| 1:16 |
: Is gelato a scam?
|
| 1:16 |
: No
|
| 1:16 |
: If it counts, a female played an NHL pre-season game.
|
| 1:16 |
: Does it?
|
| 1:16 |
: Didn’t think we were counting Rheaume situations
|
| 1:17 |
: 2 most favorite hot sauces?
|
| 1:17 |
: jolokia 10 and huy fong sriracha (hey, it’s versatile!)
|
| 1:17 |
: How many NFL teams end up playing in Los Angeles next season?
|
| 1:17 |
: All of them
|
| 1:17 |
: Women can be goalies in hockey, or placekickers in football. Manon Rheaume already played a preseason game for the Lightning. Basketball would probably be the hardest, as there’s the least differentiation between positions.
|
| 1:17 |
: Good point. As I said, I don’t have an NHL knowledge base sufficient
|
| 1:17 |
: Are you a big Bowie fan, or more of a casual fan of his well-known songs?
|
| 1:18 |
: I’ve bought most of his albums and have enjoyed most, but you can’t put me on the hardcore tier.
|
| 1:18 |
: There’s no Bowie album I’ve listened the shit out of to the same degree as, say, Electric Version
|
| 1:18 |
: – are you familiar with the Ice defense?
|
| 1:18 |
: Someone should dub an upper-class British voice over Chewbacca.
|
| 1:19 |
: If you could create a menu item at Taco Bell, what would it be called?
|
| 1:19 |
: Szymichanga
|
| 1:19 |
: Are you excited for AJ Styles and Shinsuke Nakamura in the WWE?
|
| 1:19 |
: Ar these more than rumors now?
|
| 1:19 |
: I don’t usually get excited about WWE signings until I see what they do with the wrestlers.
|
| 1:20 |
: After seeing what WWE did with Kaientai DX, I’ll never look forward again.
|
| 1:20 |
: A sandwich made out of things currently in your refrigerator would be….?
|
| 1:21 |
: Don’t have a lot of cold cuts at the moment. I think i have some black forest ham and some havarti
|
| 1:21 |
: Rumor has it the next iPhone won’t have a 3.5mm headphone port. Thoughts?
|
| 1:21 |
: Blech. I like headphone ports.
|
| 1:21 |
: DO you prefer a globe or a map?
|
| 1:21 |
: Map
|
| 1:21 |
: You should come to Indy so I have someone to drink beer and talk baseball with. Baseball is so dead here. What beer would you drink?
|
| 1:21 |
: Lots of beer!
|
| 1:21 |
: Tom Segura is pretty funny just saw his new special on netfix
|
| 1:21 |
: Will have to look
|
| 1:22 |
: If you were a transformer what would you transform into.
|
| 1:22 |
: A box of awesome
|
| 1:22 |
: or maybe a desktop graphics card
|
| 1:23 |
: if Soundwave can be a cassette recorder, I can be a GPU
|
| 1:23 |
: Which of your actual transformer would you most suspect is really just a household item?
|
| 1:23 |
: Soundwave works!
|
| 1:23 |
: is darts a sport?
|
| 1:23 |
: Yes, just not a particular athletic one
|
| 1:23 |
: You wouldn’t use time travel-acquired info for personal gain?
|
| 1:23 |
: If I screw things up, it’s a lot of work to fix.
|
| 1:23 |
: Give a 2016 stat line projection for fictional player Johnny Meh
|
| 1:23 |
: 220/270/340
|
| 1:23 |
: How many ballparks have you not visited?
|
| 1:23 |
: 6?
|
| 1:24 |
: Have you ever asked Carson why he’s so cistulli, not willing to be transtulli, and what exactly a tulli is?
|
| 1:24 |
: I have not.
|
| 1:24 |
: Are Fraggles and Muppets different species, or is one a subset of the other?
|
| 1:24 |
: Same family, different spieces
|
| 1:24 |
: Top 3 places you’d like to travel to, but have not.
|
| 1:25 |
: Alaska, Switzerland, Turkey
|
| 1:25 |
: Someone posted about paying NCAA Football guys earlier… seems like the best solution would be to allow any player to go pro at anytime. Would eliminate the need for the NCAA to pay players, and would allow pro teams to control player development.
|
| 1:25 |
: higher time machine zips projection, morlocks or eloi?
|
| 1:25 |
: Morlocks. They don’t get eaten.
|
| 1:25 |
: im going to guess kansas was merely driving thru
|
| 1:25 |
: I had barbecue!
|
| 1:25 |
: If nonsense is considered productive, then Mondays at 1pm EST is definitely my peak production window
|
| 1:25 |
: Height?
|
| 1:25 |
: 5’11
|
| 1:25 |
: Orange gatorade is awful. Try again.
|
| 1:25 |
: is it a pizza when it goes into the oven or when it comes out?
|
| 1:25 |
: When it goes in
|
| 1:25 |
: Cake or pie?
|
| 1:25 |
: PIe
|
| 1:25 |
: Is an “all beef” hot dog really a thing if it contains no dog?
|
| 1:25 |
: Yes
|
| 1:26 |
: I would think a women would play in the NBA 1st they have a league already, or maybe tennis?
|
| 1:26 |
: There’s not really a tennis league
|
| 1:26 |
: would you rather listen to Katrina and the Waves for an hour or watch Friends for an hour?
|
| 1:26 |
: Never liked friends, but friends.
|
| 1:26 |
: Does Chass lose his HOF voting eligibility in 2018 since blogs don’t count? New rumor: Murray Chass spikes his typewriter. . . must be true.
|
| 1:26 |
: I’m not sure. The rules have changed around a bit.
|
| 1:26 |
: With the way the NBA is shifting, a female 3 point specialist is not out of reach.
|
| 1:26 |
: Will this year be the time to panic in Detroit?
|
| 1:26 |
: Yes
|
| 1:26 |
: If The Martian is a comedy…..then Billy Hamilton is a power hitter…..
|
| 1:26 |
: Oh God I just read the Chass article. Wow.
|
| 1:26 |
: Taco Bell has mini-crunchwraps that come in four different flavors. I said “one of each” and all four instantly appeared on the screen. I think Taco Bell has an “all of them” button. Brilliant or dangerous?
|
| 1:26 |
: They all come from the same gun
|
| 1:26 |
: Ever play Kill Shot Bravo?
|
| 1:27 |
: I have not.
|
| 1:27 |
: What cheese name would you also give to a child?
|
| 1:27 |
: Herve?
|
| 1:28 |
: “Danish Blue Szymborski” has a nice ring
|
| 1:28 |
: Do you have any specific styles of beer that you prefer?
|
| 1:28 |
: IPA and saison
|
| 1:28 |
: Rebel galaxy is pretty fun for the price
|
| 1:28 |
: played rocket league?
|
| 1:28 |
: Keep meaning to, haven’t
|
| 1:28 |
: All time favorite Steam game?
|
| 1:28 |
: CK2
|
| 1:28 |
: Buying powerball tickets?
|
| 1:28 |
: Yes
|
| 1:28 |
:
|
| 1:28 |
: Johnny Meh, also known as Ryan Goins.
|
| 1:28 |
: Do you feel like living near a neighborhood MLB ballpark like Wrigley would be cool or annoying?
|
| 1:28 |
: Annoying
|
| 1:28 |
: Do you think people who make it their life’s mission to visit every ball park get excited or annoyed when a park is replaced?
|
| 1:28 |
: Annoyed
|
| 1:28 |
: Do you think any of the animals think that humans are transformers? Like if a bird or something sees a person get into a car and thinks “holy crap look at what that guy turned into”
|
| 1:29 |
: Possibly
|
| 1:29 |
: Dam you got big feet
|
| 1:29 |
: 12.5 isn’t that big
|
| 1:29 |
: 5 words to describe Chass, go
|
| 1:29 |
: brilliant, engaging, insightful, witty, tech-savvy
|
| 1:29 |
: You don’t like “Friends?” But their FRIENDS… living together… wait for it… IN NEW YORK CITY!!! The lols practically write themselves!
|
| 1:29 |
: I just didn’t find it interesting
|
| 1:29 |
: Have you ever felt bad about the loss of GDP that likely results from the millions of people that are in your chat and not doing actual work?
|
| 1:29 |
: No
|
| 1:29 |
: Chocolate mousse pie or pudding with the skin?
|
| 1:30 |
: former
|
| 1:30 |
: Is worrying about a woman playing in a men’s league really beneficial to women in sports?
|
| 1:30 |
: Not sure.
|
| 1:30 |
: I dont’ think people mean anything bad by it
|
| 1:30 |
: Batman or Superman and don’t choose Superman
|
| 1:30 |
: Batman
|
| 1:30 |
: 5’11 with size 12.5 – that’s some gunboats there.
|
| 1:30 |
: I also have weirdly short legs and a weirdly long torso
|
| 1:30 |
: I’m 5’11 with a 28-inch inseam. That’s ridiculous.
|
| 1:31 |
: I’m essentially a freakishly tall little person.
|
| 1:31 |
: Do cats think we’re cats or are they trying to be like us? I should pr
|
| 1:31 |
: IO think they know twe’re different
|
| 1:31 |
: People who like Coke or Pepsi and “hate” the other are just brand-loyal buffoons, true or false?
|
| 1:31 |
: False
|
| 1:31 |
: It’s very easy to tell difference.
|
| 1:31 |
: Lightsaber to your crotch……Will we see a relative of Obi-Wan Kenobi in episode 8?
|
| 1:31 |
: Yes
|
| 1:31 |
: do cats think we’re cats, or are they trying to be humans? I should know this.
|
| 1:31 |
: both
|
| 1:31 |
: What type of cat litter do you use?
|
| 1:31 |
: The store brand here is veyr good
|
| 1:31 |
: All colas are bad, root beer is much better.
|
| 1:32 |
: I like Coke.
|
| 1:32 |
: AND END
|
| 1:32 |
: Thanks for joining me everyone!
|
| 1:32 |
: As a reminder, you can find my work at ESPN.com, my chats and projections at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter.
|
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
“Tim O.: Am I the only one who thinks Lucas Duda only speaks one word…and it’s “Duda” and he uses it much the way the Smurfs use the word “smurf”?”
I am Groot?