Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 12/1/14

Dan Szymborski: We get signal. Main screen turn on.

Comment From Xolo
Word is that the Padres are “aggressively” trying to trade Grandal. Can we get a preview of what ZiPS thinks about him?

Dan Szymborski: 239/339/399 in SD, 112 OPS+, 2.8 WAR

Comment From Guest
Nelson Cruz. $58M??

Dan Szymborski: Meh.

Comment From Eminor3rd
Are you happy your O’s didn’t get Nelson Cruz at that price?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. Me take the sandwich pick.

Comment From neal
The new CiL interface is _______ and makes me want to _______

Dan Szymborski: ? I have the same one since they forced us to start using it earlier this year

Comment From Steve
Hi Dan

Dan Szymborski: Yo

Comment From Guest
Polls?

Dan Szymborski: Busy morning so no brawllege this week.

Comment From Beers
This is confusing – am I talking to a person or a range?

Dan Szymborski: YOUR EGGS HAVE BURNT. GAME OVER.

Comment From jocephus
couldn’t you have accidentally left jason heyward on the braves zips?

Comment From Dan
Do you believe Cruz deal is linked to what melky will get? make the 3 for 39 low?

Dan Szymborski: No, I think teams are more suspicious of Melky

Comment From Wrens Bleeding Hart
Nelson Cruz will be worth…what $25 million as a DH in Seattle?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS says $27 million. I’d probably go alittle higher, maybe $35.

Comment From Guest
In your opinion, would it make sense for the yankees to sign both Robertson and Miller to 4 year deals? Along with Betances, Warren, Kelley and others, it could be a Major strength.

Dan Szymborski: It would, as long as they’re not going to rebuild, their choice is to either lap the luxury tax threshold or win 80 games.

Comment From mtsw
Will Nick Markakis end up regretting turning down the Orioles’ proported 4/48 offer?

Dan Szymborski: I think so. He’s just not that good and he’s not not that young.

Comment From Mikeleelop
do Jays and Mariners line up for a trade? Would a JA Happ for Saunders trade make any sense? What would the Jays have to give up to get Ackley??

Dan Szymborski: Is there another, considerably better than JA Happ? They already have a fairly generic #5 guy in Elias.

Dan Szymborski: And without Saunders, their RF situation is downright fugly.

Comment From NYYFan14
What might a Craig Kimbrel trade look like?

Dan Szymborski: Doubt it woul dhappen

Comment From Brett
Does closing matter to a pitcher like Andrew Miller or is he just looking for a payday?

Dan Szymborski: Depends on the guy

Comment From Guest
Pick a bird: Blue Jays or Cardinals?

Dan Szymborski: Blue Jays. There’s a Cardinal that comes by that taunts my gray cat through the window

Comment From Jays fan
Jays are looking better and better, what would you guess their next move is?

Dan Szymborski: Not sure.

Dan Szymborski: Jays tend to be very erratic.

Comment From jimbo
Scherzer to yankees at 6/160?

Dan Szymborski: Probably offered around that. Don’t know if they’re really close to a deal though.

Comment From Bret
What do the Jays need to do to secure the foolproof offseason status of “AL East favourites”?

Dan Szymborski: Scherzer

Comment From Chest Rockwell
What is one year of Samardzija worth? Alexei? Or is that too obvious? What about someone like Jimmy Rollins?

Dan Szymborski: Eh, that seems kinda light.

Comment From J
Ugh, I hate reading from the bottom up

Dan Szymborski: Oh, I do too. Do you guys have to now?

Comment From STiVo
What do you think are the odds the Orioles land either Lester or Scherzer?

Dan Szymborski: Longer than something I’d say in a ribald bar joke.

Comment From Doug
Cespedes and Vazquez for Grandal and Cashner. Who says no?

Dan Szymborski: The Padres might actually do that because the Padres have suddenly gotten the idea that they need a power bat short-term rental

Dan Szymborski: Though I imagine they’d want a little more

Comment From Carl Anderson
Am I being ridiculous to view a potential Andrew Miller contract of (4/$45M) as an albatross compared to paying someone like Jon Lester $20M over six years? Assuming Lester can maintain 180-200IP per season over the life of the contract, that works out to $100k-$110k per IP; Miller’s contract would be $150k per IP. I would rather pay Lester than Miller at those prices.

Dan Szymborski: I would too.

Dan Szymborski: But KC had a terrific bullpen, so everybody now wants to overpay last year’s model.

Comment From NYYFan14
If a bad move turns out really well, is the GM smart or lucky? Referencing the Donaldson trade. Lets say Lawrie breaks out and becomes a star and Donaldson regresses a ton. Is Beane a genius despite the trade looking bad right now?

Dan Szymborski: Always hard to tell. I try to evaluate with all facts known at the time, be it as they may.

Comment From ShawnDC
So if Brett Lawrie accidentally stays healthy the whole season. What kind of player would he be? +4 war with above average defense and 15-20 hr power?

Dan Szymborski: 4ish, but that’s a pretty big if

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Could the Braves trade Simmons? I know its unlikely, but if they really want to “re-tool”, wouldnt a Simmons trade accelerate the process?

Dan Szymborski: They could, but he just turned 25 and is signed through 2020. He’s the type of player the Braves should be *acquiring* not trading.

Comment From Dan
Estrada gonna get tendered a contract?

Dan Szymborski: I can’t imagine the Jays wouldn’t after trading Lind for him.

Comment From RotoLando
Dan, I’ve been waiting all weekend for your opinion about the guy with the thing. What’s the deal with that guy?

Dan Szymborski: I know, really!

Comment From MetsFaithful5
Was Jacob deGrom real for last year? What is he going forward? Also, what range for wins are the mets currently in? Thanks

Dan Szymborski: He’s going to be good, but I’m not sure he maintains *that* level.

Dan Szymborski: Mets probably around .500.

Dan Szymborski: I can’t believe they gave up the #15 pick to sign frigging Cuddyer

Dan Szymborski: They’re a team with a bright future that really wants to be the 2014 Yankees for some reason.

Comment From The Oriole Bird
I saw a story that the Orioles inquired about Matt Kemp. What would a fair hypothetical Kemp-to-the-O’s deal look like?

Dan Szymborski: “You want him and his contract?” “Sure” “Done.”

Dan Szymborski: Even that’s stretching it – I’d only do that because the O’s are in a win period that’s very high leverage.

Dan Szymborski: Errr win range.

Dan Szymborski: Win period?

Comment From NYYFan14
Does WAR undervalue bat first no-position players?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe so.

Comment From Oren
Why did Oakland trade Josh Donaldson for Brett Lawrie, Franklin Barreto, Sean Nolin and Kendall Graveman?

Dan Szymborski: A’s are weird this offseason – I haven’t liked anything they’ve done

Comment From quizmaster
Any good cyber monday deals out there?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t actually checked today I’ve been busy – but retailers are really kinda spreading it out so Cyber Monday isn’t as big as it was a few years ago

Dan Szymborski: I know NewEgg had 8 GB of G.Skill RAM for like $55 and the Antec-620M power supply for like $60, which are both excellent deals

Dan Szymborski: There are some under-$200 500ish GB SSD deals around

Comment From Glenelg Dishman
Couldn’t you have accidentally the Braves ZiPS?

Comment From dbet
When you give us ZiPS valuations, does that consider where teams are on the win curve? Is there a way to implement this?

Dan Szymborski: Not everything makes sense in the bottom lin eprojection. Th at’s why I talk about and reference projections – for context

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t even realize I could type in bold.

Comment From hscer
Are you glad Dave appears to still be alive after the Cruz news?

Dan Szymborski: is he?

Dan Szymborski: I should do the whole chat like this.

Dan Szymborski: Or use a barely legible color too

Comment From ShawnDC
What do you the think trading Shark bring Oakland? Maybe one Blue chip guy or are they looking for ML help?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe. They won’t get as much as they gave up – only a single year and it’s not as high a leverage a situation as a pennant race

Comment From Dan
I hate the Butler deal more now…offseason can be a roller coaster

Comment From Cicero
Ross Detwiler was a really good starter in 2012-13 and a bad reliever in 2014 what would it take for the Rockies to pry him loose?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not much.

Comment From Jack
So I know your business is projections but Cruz has posted a .328 OBP lifetime, .333 last year. .501 lifetime SLG%. He is a pretty good hitter

Dan Szymborski: Which would be pretty useful if this was 2006 and the Mariners played in Texas.

Dan Szymborski: Nelson Cruz’s cumulative league-average offensive environment over the course of his career is 332/420

Dan Szymborski: Seattle in 2014 average was 310/382. So knock off 60 points of OPS right there.

Dan Szymborski: From his career totals.

Dan Szymborski: What are we at now, .769? Now, are the Mariners acquiring a player who was 25-33?. Knock off some more.

Dan Szymborski: As long as we’re going this route, why don’t the Mariners just say screw this and sign Manny instead? He’s a career 312/411/585 hitter!

Comment From Brett
Can the Jays compete in the AL East without any semblance of a good rotation?

Dan Szymborski: They can, but they’ll need some luck there.

Comment From The Oriole Bird
Did you see Miles Wray’s article on “The Teams with the Most Committed Money by Year” (http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…)? Pretty crazy to read that the Tigers are committed to paying Cabrera $32million in 2023; and the Yankees have over $170million in commitments for 2016. Ha.

Dan Szymborski: I have not, but it’s always fun to look at it.

Dan Szymborski: The Dodgers essentially have more committed than the world’s GDP.

Dan Szymborski: [NOTE: THIS IS NOT ACTUALLY FACTUAL]

Comment From Logan Davis
What is ZiPS’ opinion on Ervin Santana?

Dan Szymborski: Now, asking for ZiPS that is actually up on the site is some world-class laziness! Of which I totally approve of course.

Comment From Wrens Bleeding Hart
Could Kimbrel net Daniel Norris and Dalton Pompey?

Dan Szymborski: God, I would hope not.

Dan Szymborski: Wait, I’m an O’s fan. I would hope so.

Comment From tigerdog
Hey Dan, speaking of shopping bargains, who will be the free agent bargain this off season?

Dan Szymborski: Doing a piece tomorrow.

Comment From Mooking for Love
If RAJ makes any Samardzija deal, I am renouncing my Phillies fandom.

Comment From Glenelg Dishman
Scherzer to Tigers and Price/Porcello traded? Could this happen, realistically?

Dan Szymborski: It would be kind of stupid.

Comment From The Oriole Bird
I appreciate the mountain graphic at the top of the chat window. It feels like we’re ascending Mt. Szymborski

Dan Szymborski: CLIMB, BITCHES!

Dan Szymborski: NO OXYGEN AND YOUR SHERPAS ARE GONE

Comment From Guest
Bullpen IP from Miller will likely be higher leverage, thus more valualbe.

Dan Szymborski: But let’s not go crazy-sauce

Comment From Jonny Venters
You hurt my feelings today… more than I’ve hurt my elbow!

Comment From When do you start projecting guys? Will guys in AA like Nimmo get a projections? What about single A guys like Akeel Morris that were added to 40 man rosters recently?
When do you start projecting guys? Will guys in AA like Nimmo get a projections? What about single A guys like Akeel Morris that were added to 40 man rosters recently?

Dan Szymborski: Already started. I usually project who I need to for various reasons/needs until the full sweeps start end of November

Comment From mtsw
Should the fact that Dan Duquette is constantly expressing “interest” in awful players and trades worry me as an Orioles fan, or should the fact that generally he doesn’t end up actually getting these guys suggest he’s a genius and most of what he leaks to the press is deliberate disinfo?

Dan Szymborski: Teams *do* play the press. Another reason I’m glad I don’t play the rumors game.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think I get bullshitted that often (bullshat) because people know I can actually keep my mouth shut

Comment From dbet
If two teams use the same cheat in the finals of a video game tournament, should the organizer DQ both and make the 3/4 teams play for the championship?

Dan Szymborski: I would. Referring to the CS:GO thing last week?

Comment From Sad Panda
Lack of Clubhouse Confidential show for the offseason makes me a sad panda.

Comment From Greg
Betts could be send to the minors, same with Castillo. Why not keep the depth right?

Dan Szymborski: Seems like a waste. The thing is that performance of that value is just waste in AAA – you’re not using it in the majors and you’re not using it to trade for something you can use.

Dan Szymborski: Depth that’s too lousy is a problem, but so is depth that’s *too good*

Comment From Hemp Watson
“Trade away a proven 25-yo major leaguer for prospects!!!!!” this is what dave cameron has wrought

Comment From Jake
McCann 2015 bounceback, what do you put the odds at? What do you think he looks like next year?

Dan Szymborski: Minor bounceback, but not all the way to his old years

Comment From Alex
Are the Hearthstone guy? Because I just started playing it and I really, really, really suck.

Dan Szymborski: Arena’s the best way to get the hang of the game, because you’re dealing with the concepts like board clear before the particular of your constructed deck.

Dan Szymborski: Really, a Zoolock deck is the best for a beginner if you want to play ladder.

Dan Szymborski: Though won’t perform as well as it can without the Naxxramas cards (nerubian egg, undertaker are two very useful staples)

Comment From francis
On deGrom. Would you trade him for Upton ? Would Atl do that ?

Dan Szymborski: For one year of Upton? YUCK

Comment From Your Display Name
How does the “giving up a pick” work? Is the first round shortened, because the 15-pick is gone from the Mets?

Dan Szymborski: Ypu

Comment From Jack
If you were the Red Sox, would you trade Cespedes for the best prospects you can get for him, and use those prospects including a few of their own to get a SP, whether they sign Lester or not?

Dan Szymborski: It *always* depends on the names they’re getting in offers. Hard-and-fast rules are a good way to get in trouble.

Comment From Carl
What happened to SEA’s anti-PED stance?

Dan Szymborski: Stances are mutable.

Dan Szymborski: No.

Comment From Gson
Would you advise Chris Antonetti to go ahead and make this deal: Kemp, $ 35 MM, Chris Anderson for Francisco Lindor, Danny Salazar and Tony Wolters?

Comment From Chris
Say the Red Sox sign Jon Lester or someone similar. How does this affect the Phillies regarding Cole Hamels? Would they wait to move him during the season? Do you think they should do that anyway, regardless of what Boston does?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it has an affect – I think what the Phillies want for Hamels makes him less attractive than most good pitchers on the market

Dan Szymborski: The right to pay Hamels marketish value on a not-endless contract does have good value to a contender that a surplus analysis isn’t capturing. But not *crazy* value in which you should refill the Phillies upper minors for them.

Comment From A Fellow Nerd
Finally in time to catch one of these live! What are your favorite and least favorite Goblins vs Gnomes cards revealed thus far??

Dan Szymborski: I think my favorite is Shrinkmeister. All kinds of fun synergy with Cabal Shadow Priest, the Shadow Words. Makes Stampeding Kodo push its way back into the deck too

Dan Szymborski: Least favorite: Cobalt Guardian. Paladin gets a couple of cool cards, but the class needed to have a stronger lineup since it’s probably the weakest class

Comment From francis
What do you think about trying to buy a Royals type pen in FA. Gregerson, Neshek, Miller, Robertson for example. Just go out and get them all.

Dan Szymborski: Expensive bullpens have a way of disappointing. One of the nice things about bullpens being inexpensive (besides the obvious of being inexepsnive) is that top relievers tend to have a fairly short shelf life.

Comment From Guest
Is the Donaldson trade this year’s Fister trade? Makes me wonder if they even listened to any other offers.

Dan Szymborski: I think the Fister trade was worse.

Comment From Jack
Last yr I got 6 terrabit external drive for $90 … Good deal or market price?

Dan Szymborski: That’s a good price.

Comment From Mooking for Love
What does ZiPS actually stand for?

Dan Szymborski: sZymborskI Projection System

Comment From tag
Why no wRC+ on the ZiPS projection page?

Dan Szymborski: Because I don’t calculate it.

Comment From Garm Bel Iblis
I think this new interface is bad enough I am going to stop attending Fangraphs chats. This is so horribly designed.

Dan Szymborski: If I type in white, I can say utterly filthy things but nobody would be able to see them and I can mess up all the Google Ads without Cameron realizing

Comment From Nate
Would you rather have Lester or Scherzer if dollars and years were equal?

Dan Szymborski: The Silver Hammer

Comment From Larry Bernandez
Is Nelson Cruz the next Nick Swisher?

Dan Szymborski: I think so.

Comment From Nate
Guys whose nicknames include the words “country,” and or “breakfast” are the new market inefficiency (And it’s perfect that Coco Crisp is on the same team as Butler).

Dan Szymborski: It’s too bad Butler can’t play the outfield. Then the A’s could get a player nicknamed OJ or something and call their outfield “Complete, balanced breakfast”

Dan Szymborski: Maybe there’s a player in the minors named David “Unsweetened” Grapefruit that I forgot about. Probably not, but I like teo hope.

Comment From Mike
Ubaldo and Norris for Kemp who says no?

Dan Szymborski: O’s I’d hope. I still think Jimenez can be salvaged.

Comment From Ringtone Composer
Have you released the order of ZiPS projections that will eke through Fangraphs this offseason?

Dan Szymborski: Just the first 4, which you can kinda figure out based on the order I was commenting on the projections as I ran them

Comment From Jack
Woah, .420 SLG%, adjusted, that is a huge drop from .501. Texas is that crazy?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, but also remember that Cruz’s lifetime line is only half made up of the current era, half is from the crazy offensive era

Comment From Fat Neckbeard
Saw something from Eno about how the DH penalty (for positional runs) is a tad too large. Do you agree?

Dan Szymborski: I’m the one who has argued that for years!

Dan Szymborski: Both mgl and I get similar results no matter how we filter out injured players – players that play other positions normally hit worse than expected when DHing

Dan Szymborski: As a group, of course.

Dan Szymborski: Given that a DH is de facto required, if a player will hit worse at DH than he otherwise would, that should be taken into consideration for DH replacement level, even if there’s no defensive value

Comment From Mike
If you ran the O’s would you sign Markakis to a 4/34 deal and if not who would you get to replace him/Cruz?

Dan Szymborski: 4/34, I can argue it.

Comment From Ringtone Composer
What is the compensation teams receive when they lose free agents that they gave qualifying offers? (What happens if they lose several of them?)

Dan Szymborski: Sandwich picks.

Dan Szymborski: Everybody gets sandwiches now. It’s not like the old system where the old teams would get th enew team’s picks and you have to figure out who gets which one

Comment From Ringtone Composer
Now that the Marlins have authorized future payment of $1gillion to Stanton, I expect them to trade him for Betts and Cespedes and start from scratch if they aren’t in first place in the NL East this May.

Comment From Query
Do you play any traditional games, like backgammon?

Dan Szymborski: Chess

Comment From Alex
Zoolock? I’ve been going fast pace mostly charge minions and that’s where I’ve had the most success.

Dan Szymborski: Zoo warlock. It’s essentially a board control deck, not a rush deck.

Dan Szymborski: Pure face decks are really hard to make work as there are a lot of tools to stop it

Dan Szymborski: It’s why aggro rogue is only a surprise thing now and most rogues you play will be miracle rogues

Comment From STiVo
In college, my buddies and I found a way to record our Goldeneye games on VCR. So…. yeah. That’s all.

Comment From mtsw
A friend of mine loves playing M:tG online. Should I try to convince him to switch to Hearthstone or will he find it disappointing?

Dan Szymborski: Hearthstone isn’t as deep a game as MTG. But it’s more elegant and it works better in an internet format.

Dan Szymborski: Because you can do things on a PC that you can’t when you’re simply porting a card game.

Comment From dbet
Yeah I was referring to the CS thing. Such a weird scenario.

Comment From Jim
How far away are the Twins from contention?

Dan Szymborski: Still aways

Comment From Dave
The Mariners aren’t done making moves, are they?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe so.

Comment From Mike, of Mike and the Mechanics Fame
The Phillies seem like the saddest North American pro sports franchise right now. And I’m a Redskins fan.

Dan Szymborski: Raiders.

Comment From Mikeleelop
jays potential interest in Calespo? Yuck right? is there a good 2B option out there for the Jays??

Dan Szymborski: It’s definitely a yuck.

Dan Szymborski: I think Callaspo headed off splash mountain

Dan Szymborski: Using Lowrie at 2B probably the best option. Could try to get Ackley if a trade can be worked out. Asdrubal may be a bargain

Dan Szymborski: It’s not a deep position in FA and I wouldn’t be that interested in Bonifacio playign 2B full time and I *know* wouldn’t be interested in Weeks as he can’t really play the position any more.

Comment From Steve Dilbeck
When did you nerds start watching baseball anyway? When I was in high shcool you’d be off jumping rope behind the stands while we men played the game; then I’d give you a swirly and steal your jump rope. Keep on doing your nerdy stuff while I cover baseball the real way. Print journalism and human interaction is the future; leave your numbers on this internet that only you nerds use anyway. Hold on, call coming in from Tribune co.

Dan Szymborski: Heh

Comment From Hugger
If we’re just throwing money around, is Melky a good target for the Mariners?

Dan Szymborski: At this point, with D included, I’m not sure he’s actually an upgrade on anybody now that DH is probably spoken for

Comment From quizmaster
Have you ever stopped eating pringles, after you have popped?

Dan Szymborski: I stop eating Pringles after I’ve confirmed that what I’m eating are Pringles.

Comment From Guest
the Cruz deal is not a very good cyber monday deal.

Comment From Outliar Baseball
There’s a Joey Pankake in the minors

Comment From David Grapefruit, backup AA RF
I’d happily adopt that nickname if you had your colleagues stack the deck and improve my prospect status.

Comment From Seann
If Cuddyer platoons 100% against lefties with Duda, do you like the signing anymore?

Dan Szymborski: Not really.

Comment From GWAR
What about how teams these days are using DH as a rest day for the players, which I would assume means they are physically worn down when DHing

Dan Szymborski: I did one look that only looked at guys who were used 80% at DH in a 30-day period to try to weed those guys out

Comment From Jack
I will continue to attend this chat in spite of this horrible interface because Szymorski is actually the best.

Dan Szymborski: DAMMIT, I WAS JUST ONE LETTER OFF OF BEING THE BEST

Dan Szymborski: BUT THATS OK, BECAUSE I HEARD SYMBORSKI WAS THE WORST SO I’LL TAKE THE MIDDLE

Comment From Gareth
I like kipnis but wouldn’t it make sense just to put him in RF and have a better infield defense when lindor joins jose Ramirez to form a nice double play combo?

Dan Szymborski: The problem is that he’s not that exciting as a RF.

Comment From Brian
I’m about to make a sandwich pick right now. Fresh ground PB with a touch of honey and some bananas.

Comment From jda
Now I had to go all stalkerish on you and see if you had a USCF rating. Lo and behold, there’s a Daniel Szymborski, although it could be some other schmo for all I know.

Dan Szymborski: I play online mostly.

Dan Szymborski: I played in one mail tournament in the 90s but I switched ISPs and emails to me from people were bouncing and I got disqualified!

Dan Szymborski: And on that note, time to sign off for another week

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me everybody!