Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/26/15

Dan Szymborski: From his secret lair here on Skullcrusher Mountain, it’s the Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat!

Dan Szymborski: (No presidents as I am not home)

Comment From Dan
Do you have the Zips PC at least so we can get some projs?

Dan Szymborski: On my laptop, so no. There would be long waits between.

Comment From Eric
Your best guess as to where Shields lands?

Dan Szymborski: That’s hard as he’s the last really desirable free agent standing so there are a lot of options.

Dan Szymborski: I do like the reports of the Royals checking in on Shields, but they spent the payroll needed on stupid things.

Comment From Jimmy
As of January 26, 2015, James Shields is most likely to end up with what team?

Dan Szymborski: James Shields is most likely to be unemployed on January 26, 2015.

Comment From Dan
Dang, it’s like Daniel Bryan being eliminated all over 🙁

Dan Szymborski: God that Royal Rumble was a snoozer. It wasn’t aggressively terrible, just dull and pointless.

Comment From EC
How would Barry Bonds project on ZIPS for this season?

Dan Szymborski: At this point, ZiPS would only project him for a few at-bats.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS isn’t really tested for guys pushing 50 after 7 years off, so it’s no better than pulling numbers out of a hat.

Comment From jocephus
do you think the new LED lights at safeco could effect park factors,etc, in a few years?

Dan Szymborski: Will have to see. Sometimes changes expected to be significant are nothing and minor things turn out to be significant.

Comment From adam
A local Philly writer suggested that he could think of only 3-4 better 1-2 than Hamels + Lee. It looks like the FO might be starting to move in the right direction, but how long does it take a fanbase to get smart?

Dan Szymborski: No general fanbase is really smart.

Comment From Hank
Does MLB have some sort of vendetta against the Pittsburgh Pirates? They sign Josh Bell to a big bonus, next year they add a slotting system so they can’t do that anymore. Pirates start shifting aggressively to prevent runs, now they are trying to take that away….

Dan Szymborski: MLB is perfectly capable of being stupid and/or screwing over young players without any additional underlying reason.

Comment From TB
Say I decided I wanted to build my very own projection system. What’s the most important tangible skill I need (assume I already have patience and love of baseball and a case of Red Bull and all that stuff)?

Dan Szymborski: Endurance.

Comment From Jays Fan II
So there’s no way that the Jays didn’t “tamper” in trying to get Duquette, is there?

Dan Szymborski: Tampering rules are pretty straightforward. It’s very likely the Blue Jays avoided a technical violation. They could express any kind of interest as much as they wanted, but they couldn’t direclty negotiated with Duquette.

Comment From Curtis
Has any one ever done work on bat length/weight? is that information even available (bat size)? seems like it might have some sort of impact….

Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe the data is out there.

Comment From STiVo
Mookie Betts’ top comp is Andrew McCutchen. Let the salivating begin! (I realize that the top comps are really for fun.)

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, his #2 comp is Mark Carreon, which is less exciting. Then Shannon Stewart, B.J. Upton, Chad Curtis, Ellis Burks, Bernard Gilkey, Nate McLouth, Keith Mitchell, Vernon WElls, Gabe Kapler, Bernie Williams, Milton Bradley, Matt Lawton, Richard Hidalgo, Chris James, Phil Lombardi

Dan Szymborski: Don’t get excited Pazz, I had that list saved.

Comment From Phillies113
Papelbon to Milwaukee dead at this point?

Dan Szymborski: I believe so.

Dan Szymborski: Never really made much sense for the Brewers.

Comment From adam
There was talking of moving Sale a season or so ago and with the Strasburg talk, at what point does a FO think the return is worth it?

Dan Szymborski: When the return is significant and meets the teams needs. There’s no magic on-off when teams are willing to consider.

Dan Szymborski: While they draw brighter lines in public, teams are usually willing to at least theoretically discuss almost anybody

Comment From neal
at what value does the price for Shields fall to the point where he’s a potential bargain?

Dan Szymborski: If you can get him into the high 8 figures instead of 9, he gets quite desirable I think.

Comment From adam
under/over: Lindor is a replacement level player for 2015

Dan Szymborski: Over, though I agree with ZiPS that Ramirez is better short-term

Comment From randplaty
How does ZiPS use park factors? Does it use 5 year averages like fangraphs? Does it make exception for ballpark changes? For example, in 2013 and 2014 the PF for LH HRs at Petco has been 103. Before that it was 81. HUGE change.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS uses park factors similarly, though probably not identically.

Comment From Tommy Lasordid
When do we see Urias in the Dodger rotation? 2016?

Dan Szymborski: Could be 2016 the way he’s blowing through the minors.

Comment From EC
Is there any argument that non TJ guys (like Scherzer) are better bets over the long term, for big $$, than those who have had it (like… Zimmermann or Stras)?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think there’s a significant factor here.

Comment From AL Pitching Coach
Who are your favourite young AL pitchers primed to make a big jump forward in 2015?

Dan Szymborski: Now *that* would be giving away an article before I evern write it!

Comment From S
What’s the point of articles that suggest a bad team could be good if everything breaks right for them?

Dan Szymborski: Bad teams don’t have much to write about in late January/early February.

Comment From mtsw
Given what we know about the times through the order penalty, could teams with bad plate discipline have a hidden advantage, in the sense they generate fewer pitches per plate appearance and are therefore more likely to get 3rd and 4th opportunities against opposing starters? Could this partially explain why the 2014 Orioles, with the worst plate discipline in the league, outperformed their projections so heavily?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think that’s a significant enough issue to really cause that much of a difference.

Dan Szymborski: The Orioles were actually fairly toward the middle in pitcher per PA.

Dan Szymborski: ptiches

Dan Szymborski: Pitches

Comment From Gila Monster
Where will the Yankees and Red Sox move to once the northeast meets its demise?

Dan Szymborski: New New York and New Boston on Mars.

Comment From Mooking for Love
Manfred isn’t serious with this banning defensive shifts idea is he? What’s the goal here?

Dan Szymborski: Cartoon stupidity.

Comment From Richard
Does Raisel Iglesias spend the entire season as a starter for the Reds this season?

Dan Szymborski: Really depends on his spring. I think if he stays in the majors initially, it’ll be in the bullpen but if minors, he’ll start full time

Comment From randplaty
Should undertaker be nerfed? If it is nerfed. Don’t you think aggro will die if it’s nerfed? Aggro is already 2nd tier right now.

Dan Szymborski: I think it should start off as a 1/1 rather than a 1/2.

Dan Szymborski: Zoolock is second-tier right now but mid-range hunter also uses Undertaker and is doing just fine.

Comment From S
As an undergrad student majoring in Statistics, what’s another field that would be important to study and help bolster my resume?

Dan Szymborski: Programming.

Comment From mtsw
If Peter Angelos doesn’t give Dan Duquette a titular promotion and raise as compensation for being forced to be passed on for the Toronto job, does it finally prove he’s a hopeless cheapskate?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not an Angelos apologist – in fact I greatly dislike Angelos – but I see nothing wrong here. Duquette is under contract and there’s a difference between replacing your GM in October and replacing your GM in December/January.

Dan Szymborski: Duquette wasn’t forced to sign his contract. When you sign a contract, there’s always a chance that when you sign it, you will miss out on another opportunity that you are constrained against.

Dan Szymborski: While teams are frequently generous about allowing their contracted personnel to interview for promotions elsewhere, this is by no means universal and at all times in the offseason.

Comment From MetsFaithful5
David Wright proves last year was a fluke; Granderson improves a little over last year; Lagares grows more as an offensive player; deGrom only regresses a little; Harvey is 75 % himself; Wheeler improves his command; Cuddyer players

Comment From MetsFaithful5
Who is better? The Marlins or Mets?

Dan Szymborski: I think the Mets are a little better anyway.

Dan Szymborski: The Marlins improvements are way overrated.

Comment From Dave Cameron
Starlin Castro a top-five SS by WAR in 2015? This is the last time I care what ZiPS has to say.

Dan Szymborski: IIRC, he’s currently 4th in ZiPS SS WAR with 9 teams to go.

Dan Szymborski: The most likely threats left are Hardy, Escobar, Reyes.

Comment From Guest

In case you were curious

Comment From Guest
I’m sure you’ve answered this before but I don’t know where, so if you don’t mind: quick summary of what exactly the “comp” column is? Fun to read those!

Dan Szymborski: The best near-age offensive comps based on recent history, position, performance, etc. Mookie Betts having Andrew McCutchen at his top comp doesn’t mean that ZiPS is projected Mookie Betts to be Andrew McCutchen but that Betts in the last few years is most comparable to McCutchen at a similar age.

Comment From EC
Could ZIPS be underrating Scherzer, with the better D behind him?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe so – it already gives him a boost in Washington

Comment From Ryguy
Thx to Cover it Live for the new game they created where we try to figure out which of your comments go with what question….

Comment From Curtis
How many players (roughly?) have full no trade clauses? any idea how many 10 & 5 guys there are right now?

Dan Szymborski: I honestly don’t know off-hand and it’s a little hard to guesstimate eating a sandwich at a table.

Comment From Nevets
Does the bump in Porcello’s WAR projection partially come from the fact he’s a grounball pitcher who has been in spacious Comerica his whole career and now will be in Fenway where his skill is more valuable?

Dan Szymborski: He’s played in front of some crappy Tiger defenses in recent years.

Comment From L. Scott
What’s your take on this getting rid of defensive shifts talk?

Dan Szymborski: Yuck. There’s an easy solution – punish the shift. it’s not like there’s an extra infielder. If your lefthanded batters can’t take a pitch another way, that’s your fault for not realizing that there’s a defensive strategy to help neutralize

Dan Szymborski: Yes, NFL has formation rules, but banning defensive shifts is like banning double coverage.

Comment From A cat
Craig for Papelbon because, why not?

Dan Szymborski: I’m sure the Phillies would prefer a B prospect or something – even they kind of realize where they are in the success cycle.

Comment From Mike
I know you said the projections aren’t with you, but if you remember – are you projecting the same kind of dropoff for Jose Abreu that Steamer (and others) are – 30+ points in each slash?

Dan Szymborski: You could just look it up on fangraphs!

Comment From Guest
Do you play fantasy sports? Fantasy video games? Fantasy LARPing?

Dan Szymborski: I do play fantasy sports and video games. I have never LARPed.

Comment From Guest
It is pitch f/x data included in any projection systems? Say we have a guy like deGrom, should a projection system look at his SwgStrk or Contact% before seeing regression in the K%?

Dan Szymborski: Some of that data is in ZiPS, though really complex repertoire stuff is not.

Comment From Guest
Is Shields really a “bargain” if no one wants him except at that price? Takes faith in the market obviously, but these teams hire the best amateur analysts and have access to troves of data. But thinking that way, I guess, would make for pretty boring conversation at a place like this.

Dan Szymborski: Teams aren’t usually so binary on a player. And the fact is teams *do* get bargains and/or make terrible signigns all the time.

Comment From Phillies113
What are your thoughts on scheduled doubleheaders to honor Ernie Banks? Owners would hate having single admission to two games, but what if you could buy tickets to either game at regular price or to both games at a reduced price?

Dan Szymborski: Would be kinda cool.

Dan Szymborski: At the very least, the Cubs should posthumously give him an honorary doctorate in Cubs baseball, thus promoting him to Dr. Cub.

Comment From Guest
The first rumblings out of the new Commissioner’s office is to ban the shift? Let’s hope he peaks late.

Dan Szymborski: I can see Rob Manfred during his interviews with the owners. “I assure you guys that I can hit the ground running with bad ideas on my very first week.”

Comment From randplaty
What types of information would suggest a player should perform better than their projection? In otherwords what type of information does ZiPS not take into account that we as fans may have access to? Or should we always trust the projection?

Dan Szymborski: Mechanical issues. Precise injury descriptions.

Comment From Guest
If you would move anywhere, where would you move and why

Dan Szymborski: To the year 2100 becuase i’m annoyed I won’t get to see what happens then.

Comment From Guest
why are all my plugins going slow today

Dan Szymborski: Virus from porn downloading?

Comment From Guest
reports from my twitter feed: a BURLESQUE JIM HENSON TRIBUTE this Saturday with a “Swedish Chef segment” …

Comment From kvk
Any Red Sox trades going to happen? Mookie or someone else?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think Betts is going to be traded.

Comment From Guest
The “east coast bias” is a myth perpetrated by a powerful west coast that wants to distract us from west coast bias T/F

Dan Szymborski: It’s not the fault of media that the east cost is best coast, with the superior time zone and the ocean that gets pleasantly warm to swim in.

Comment From MAtt
What is ZiPS seeing for the overall run environment? in 2014, 22 pitchers had a sub-3 ERA. Steamer see 4 pitchers doing it in 2015. What does ZiPS see?

Dan Szymborski: I think I have 4 starters sub-3 right now in 2015, but with teams to go.

Comment From Cartoons
We take umbrage at your remark; we wish to have nothing to do with Mr. Manfred.

Comment From Con
Do you think Addison Russell makes an impact in 2015?

Dan Szymborski: 2016 more likely I think.

Comment From Patrick
Corey Seager seems to have made a large leap in scouts’ eyes with his impressive 2014. Does the K rate worry you as he faces better pitching?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t worry about it. You worry about strikeouts of course, but a lot of that is a PA issue and for a player performing excellently, you can take that way too far.

Dan Szymborski: Seager slugged like .600 last year and hit .34x. If a guy’s doing that, you want him to be aggressive at the plate, not being too passive.

Dan Szymborski: If he only drew 20 walks and was hitting .260, then I’d be worried.

Comment From Mark
Undertaker should get +1/+1 on a deathrattle being triggered, not played.

Dan Szymborski: I think that’s too much of a nerf.

Dan Szymborski: I think making it a 1/1 makes it fair because then it’s susceptible to hero powers if it’s dropped on one and not buffed immediately.

Comment From Guest
Over/under on Lomo for 20 hrs?

Dan Szymborski: Mariners are Wednesday, so gonna make you wait!

Comment From Mark in TO
Why does ZIPS suck so much?

Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t really. It’s in a bitfenix prodigy, so it’s in a small case without a ton of intake fans.

Comment From Mooking for Love
Do the Dodgers play Alex Guerrero this year? Do you think ZiPS’ 527 PA projection is appropriate?

Dan Szymborski: He’s likely to at least start the season in the minors and is unlikely to have a huge role. Of course the 527 PA projection is not appropriate, but ZiPS isn’t attempting to divvy out playing time – that’s not part of the mission statement.

Comment From Guest
Bulleted list of reasons Ks have gone up in recent history, go:

Dan Szymborski: – More strike threes

Comment From Josh I
I agree that eliminating the shift is a terrible idea. But what about limiting it? Like, you can shift, but nothing drastic – no third basemen playing shortstop, no shortstops right behind second base, no second basemen in right field. Thoughts? I think limiting them makes it better for causal fans and diehards alike. It frustrates me as a fan when a bullet to right field ends up as an out because there’s an extra fielder there.

Dan Szymborski: OPS has dropped almost as much for righties in recent years as it has for lefties. There’s little reason to think the shifts themselves are causing any kind of an effect on this significant a level.

Dan Szymborski: Getting upset that your lefthanded hitter hits a bullet into a shift makes as much sense as getting upset that your QB is getting intercepted when he throws into triple coverage.

Comment From mymaus
Do you adjust zips projections based on a player moving from 1 team to another (adjusting to a better/worse hitting ballpark or lineup)? Example=Donaldson. When and how often and/or how soon does that update occur?

Dan Szymborski: I usually update it at the time or later if I forget to. Everything’s up-to-date ont he final spreadsheet.

Comment From Joe
I like how the national media are trying to make the Orioles look small and vindictive by not just letting their GM (who just signed a 4 year deal) go to a division rival in the middle of the off season. The Toronto media, on the other hand, has roundly criticized Rogers and Jays FO for how poorly they’ve handled this.

Dan Szymborski: Angelos isn’t popular, for good reason. So he tends to get negative coverage.

Comment From Guest
What video games are you playing this week?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t kno wyet!

Comment From Guest
More important Duquette question is: do you really want to force him to stay? Otoh, he doesn’t want to hurt himself by fielding a bad product. Otoh, you aren’t fomenting loyalty by treating an employee this way, and he’d probably do better somewhere he would prefer to be.

Dan Szymborski: I’m sure he’ll act professionally. Yeah, it looks visibly bad, but again, he signed the contract.

Dan Szymborski: Do the Pirates look bad for not just letting Andrew McCutchen be a free agent and get a big salary increase?

Comment From zwibi
Why are pablo sandovals home rune projections so low? I would think the floor would be easily 20+ by no longer playing in ATT, Petco, and dodger stadium on a regular basis.

Dan Szymborski: The AL’s tougher and while he’s not playing in Petco, he’s also not playing in Coors (and he *did* have a lower SF HR projection)

Dan Szymborski: It’s very easy to overrate just how significant HR park factors are.

Dan Szymborski: For a 15 HR guy, the difference between a home field with a 90 HR PF and one with a 110 HR PF isn’t even 2 HR.

Comment From Tommy
Do you see Corry Seager playing somewhere on the left side for the Dodgers this year?

Dan Szymborski: Not this year, except an espresso maybe.

Comment From Mooking for Love
Is ZiPS updated consistently for all teams as we get closer to the season, and if so, is there a central database us common folk can obtain this information?

Dan Szymborski: I post a spreadsheet in March with the updates.

Comment From Dylan
I know ZiPS loves Kris Bryant, but is there a chance he follows the Chris Davis path of disappointment and high strikeouts before becoming a .260 hitter with 35+ HR power who still strieks out a lot

Dan Szymborski: If Kris Bryant become a .260 hitter with 35+ HR power who still strikes out a lot, he’s a star at third base.

Comment From ar
steamer has Jose Fernandez like the 70th overall-ish best player. How is that even possible in 125 innings? Let alone the fact that 125 innings is way too many? (or does ZiPS have something close to what steamer has?

Dan Szymborski: I think ZiPS is fairly close – that kind of injury is far from a death sentence. At this point, TJ surgery is like public urination.

Dan Szymborski: Now, if it had been his shoulder, his projection would ahve come out worse.

Comment From John
How does one learn how to play hearthstone? do i need friends who also play?

Dan Szymborski: No, you just play people in the matchmaker.

Comment From Tommy Lasordid
NL West: Dodgers, Giants, Rockies, Padres, DBacks. Agree?

Dan Szymborski: Padres above Rockies.

Comment From Guest
Have you ever thought of limiting the pool of chatters to a select few, so that you can have more timely responses?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t see how that would even work.

Comment From Nicks
Saw Mookie Betts Zips projection comparison as Andrew McCutchen. Based on minor league starts, early majors production how close do you think that really is?

Dan Szymborski: That’s not a comparison of the projection.

Comment From Ryguy
So now that Duquette is apparently staying, will the Orioles actually make any viable moves?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not – there’s not much viable out there.

Comment From mtsw
Rationale for getting rid of shifts seems to be “make game more exciting.” Wouldn’t eliminating the sort of power-only, plodding pull hitters most hurt by shifts do more to spice up the game? Or does the league still buy “chicks dig the long ball” as marketing dogma?

Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t take burning the shift too often to make the shift a sub-park strategy.

Comment From FenwayFranker
I read an article that claimed the Pirates actually allow MORE hits with their aggressive shifting than they would without it. This is blatantly wrong, isn’t it?

Dan Szymborski: I’d have to read the article.

Comment From Reynad
Seems like the hall of fame is going away from automatically putting in sluggers with power numbers. But they are rewarding players with longevity on a particular team. How will this affect Harold Baines?

Dan Szymborski: The Hall of Fame is going away from evaluating players on their merits.

Dan Szymborski: Yes, I’m salty…

Comment From kevinthecomic
Was watching the 3rd inning of Ken Burns’ baseball documentary last night on MLB Network — narrator said that when Connie Mack was a catcher, he was able to make a noise with his hands that sounded like a ball being foul-tipped, thus recording an out when he caught said ball. We need to be including this skill in the pitch-framing metrics!!

Dan Szymborski: A team should sign Michael Winslow.

Comment From Anthony
I’m sure you have answered this somewhere, but when will ZiPS be finished being released? The suspense is killing me

Dan Szymborski: After all 30 teams!

Comment From Nate
One baseball executive said he was “convinced” that Shields’ lack of being good in the postseason is the reason many teams haven’t shown great interest. Ridiculous, right?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think many teams take that really seriously.

Comment From Manfred
Upon further review, we’ve decided to ban Andrelton Simmons from the game of baseball for life. His offense? Cutting down offensive performance with his glove. This is an affront to the spirit of the game, and any other players found behaving in such a manner will be similarly punished.

Comment From mtsw
Aren’t the two biggest, condescending ideas about what the mass audience wants changed in baseball, 1) more scoring 2) shorter games, inherently contradictory? Is there any solid data backing up the ideas that these changes will actually improve the game’s popularity? To me, it seems like the failure of indoor soccer and arena football, two games explicitly designed to be higher-scoring, faster-paced versions of other sports should make baseball wary about tinkering with the game to push it more in that direction.

Dan Szymborski: I do think the games could be shorter and that those changes would be popular in the long-run. Offense, I’m not as worried about.

Comment From Manfred… Man
If he bans shifts, he’s wrapped up a douche, another ruler in the right.

Comment From Nate
Baseball analytics have ruined me. The first thing I did after hearing of Banks’ passing was to come to this site and realize that Ron Santo was the better player, and for longer, and that Billy Williams shouldn’t be a HoFer.

Comment From Mr. Moonshine
Do you compare Zips projections to actual results for that same season. If so what’s correlation between the two and where can I find that info? Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: I do every year, but I don’t make my internal findings public as I have a conflict of itnerest. At least one person will individually look at projections as a group every year.

Dan Szymborski: Here’s the one I am aware of for 2014. http://www.hardballtimes.co…

Comment From Curtis
Who is the greatest living baseball player – current or retired?

Dan Szymborski: Barry Bonds.

Comment From hscer
Which pitcher is most likely to try and mess with the inflation in baseballs now? Obviously, intellect, or lack thereof, is a factor here.

Dan Szymborski: Papelbon?

Comment From Nate
Fun fact: Banks accumulated roughly 75% of his career WAR value in 7 seasons (he played in 19).

Comment From a eskpert
not sarcasm: there’s a reasonably good chance you will get to see what happens in 2100. As any economic historian can tell you, technological change is thundering along mightily.

Dan Szymborski: Maybe better than non-zero, but that’s still a 42-year stretch in my current actuarial life expectancy.

Dan Szymborski: Not that I’m against the idea, mind you.

Dan Szymborski: I really like existing.

Dan Szymborski: I’m a fanboy of being alive.

Comment From kevinthecomic
i think we should all boycott these chats until coveritlive fixes (i) its scrolling direction and (ii) the random Q/A placement. Either that or FanGraphs needs to reduce the cost of these chats.

Dan Szymborski: Are you guys getting random placement?

Dan Szymborski: I know about the scrolling. Maybe I’m responding too quickly?

Comment From neal
instead of banning the shift, can we just ban commentary from constantly talking about the shift and acting like it’s destroying the game?

Comment From Guest
Dan, Why does Chrome hate RAM and battery life?

Dan Szymborski: Memory leak for one seems to be a constant bugaboo of browsers.

Comment From bob
is there anywhere to find player’s 60 times? seems like I ran one at every tryout I ever went to but it seems oddly hard to find major leaguers times.

Comment From Mr. Moonshine
A woman holding a dildo, oddly arousing. A clown holding a dildo while riding a sweaty donkey is terrifying. Does Zips take this into account?

Dan Szymborski: Not anywhere I know of.

Comment From Curtis
My favorite baseball coach used to ALWAYS say “Hit it where they ain’t!”

Dan Szymborski: In 2015, thanks to Manfred, Keeler’s mantra is not “Make them ain’t where I hit!”

Comment From ML
no its not…making a conscious decision to throw into triple coverage versus how much control over directing a faster than ever avg fastball?

Dan Szymborski: There’s ntohing magic about pulling the ball – it’s just that particular hitting style was more optimized under a particular defensive strategy that did not involve a shift.

Comment From Steve Dilbeck
I see your ducking the question, because you sabermetric types are the exact reason baseball today is all strikeouts or not and you’re afraid to address it head on. It’s clear that players don’t go up there looking to put wood on the ball like they used to, when real greats were on the field and not these robot-trained alogarithms who go up there looking to strike out or hit a home run. Teams win when they hit the ball — look at the Royals, look at Kirby Puckett. This is the preordained result of what your ilk has wrought, Szymborski; I for one am sad to watch the sport I love burn.

Comment From Mr. Moonshine
Iw antedt ot rys omething,c any our eadt hisD an?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, I can read it.

Comment From Charles
Are they Giants acting pretty pathetic? They win the World Series because they have a pretty good team, lose a top FA, and are completely complacent with their mediocre team instead using the core that won the WS last year and trying for another. I mean Casey McGehee is starting. Their rotation is asking for problems with Peavy,Hudson, and Vogelsong all likely to miss time. Cain is still a big question mark too.

Dan Szymborski: The thing about the Giants is they did make an effort to bring back Sandoval, sign Lester, etc. They just ended up the losers. I think that’s different than a team just not trying.

Comment From L. Scott
Care to elaborate on how the AL is “tougher” for hitting HR?

Dan Szymborski: Higher level of play.

Dan Szymborski: Some people can overrate this, but it is a small factor.

Comment From Guest
How similar are ZiPS and PECOTA’s comps?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve never directly compared them.

Comment From Guest
How many beers could you drink on a cross-country flight? How many beers would you want to drink on a cross-country flight, budget aside? How many Wade Boggs posters were in your room growing up

Dan Szymborski: I’ve got acid reflux issues and I can’t drink as much as I used to.

Dan Szymborski: In 8 hours and light beer? I doubt I could handle more than 20 before my stomach really bothered me. I couldn’t touch Boggs. I’m no Charlie.

Comment From Mark in TO
YOLAIAOT – You Only Live An Infinite Amount Of Times…

Comment From Guest
I am not getting mixed up Q/As, never have.

Comment From JoshC
I’ve been reading Kiley’s lists, and i was wondering. How much prospect knowledge do you hold?

Dan Szymborski: I know plenty, but it’s not what they need me to write about.

Comment From Re:Eskpert
Aubrey De Gray, The world’s authority on aging, believes the first human to live to be 1000 years old is probably alive right now and between 50-60 years old. However, he is signed up to be a cryogenically frozen, so I’m not sure how much he believes it. He has a killer beard too.

Dan Szymborski: Well, you want to hedge your Betts.

Dan Szymborski: OK, last chance for anything off-topic or random!

Comment From Mark in TO
I love lamp!

Dan Szymborski: Dennis Lamp or lamps themselves? While I have no strong feelings pro or against Dennis Lamp, I do enjoy lighting when the earth has rotated to the extent that there is insufficient natural light.

Comment From Mark in TO
I killed a man with a Trident

Dan Szymborski: You killed a man with gum?

Dan Szymborski: Oh, a trident.

Comment From Curtis
better career…Mookie Betts or Mookie Wilson?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be better than Mookie Wilson.

Dan Szymborski: True story – there was a guy in the White Sox newsgroup on usenet (I think named Alex Goddard) who argued that Mookie Wilson should be a Hall of Famer and Dave Winfield not.

Comment From Guest
If one is 6’2″ and 200lb, a case of bud light should raise your BAC to around .363 after 8 house.

Dan Szymborski: Hmm, you burn off what, .02 an hour or something?

Dan Szymborski: Is there a blood alcohol calculator that can do this?

Comment From Guest
Yes. rupissed.com

Dan Szymborski: OK, at 183 cm and 118 kg, and age 36, after 8 hours of drinking 20 cans of 375ml 2.7% alcohol beer, I would only be at 0.145 approximately.

Comment From Guest
Yes, but Miller Lite is 4.2%

Dan Szymborski: Oh, OK then

Dan Szymborski: So what, then 0.27? I’m sure I’ve been that sloshed before.

Comment From Curtis
Sega Genesis NHL ’95 – Greatest Video Game EVER

Dan Szymborski: Those Genesis NHL games were terrific.

Comment From zwibi
How is it tougher to hit home runs in the AL? Forgive me but that doesnt make sense. Ill take hitting in Yankee stadium against any starter they trot out rather than hitting in dodger stadium and kershaw/greinke/etc…

Dan Szymborski: The AL is an overall stronger league.

Dan Szymborski: And on that note, since everyone’s probably wandered off while I played with blood alcohol calculator, time for me to shove off for another week.

Dan Szymborski: As a reminder, you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs, and at DSzymborski on Twitter, Steam, etc. (and ZimSmash on twitch though I’m still figuring out what to do wtiht he channel)