Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 2/19/18

Matt: Hi Dan. Did you chat move to Mondays because you could never remember when Thursday was?

Dan Szymborski: Actually, that’s kinda what happened.  Weekdays mush together, I think for me *and* Carson since one of us would always forget.

Bobyt: Do the Dodgers need any holes filled. IE another starting pitcher.

Dan Szymborski: They’re perhaps a skosh below average at 2nd, but I doubt they aggressively try to fill that up.

S: Where does Dickerson end up? Rockies makes some sense.

Dan Szymborski: Rockies do make sense, plus there’s history there

Dan Szymborski: If Dahl is healthy and actually gets the job, the Rockies are near the bottom of the league in both the other corner and first base

Dan Szymborski: Now, Dickerson likely wouldn’t be the 1B, but he’d bump someone *to* first base

Roadhog: How have the A’s not signed Lucroy or Lance Lynn yet? Mostly good roster with big holes, money to plug them, and seemingly no interest in doing so.

Dan Szymborski: I’m honestly not sure what the A’s are doing.  They’re one of those rarities these days, a team kinda just hanging around.,

CamdenWarehouse: A great thing about Dan is that he’s not part of Fangraphs so he can’t actually leave Fangraphs

BojackDonkeyman: Mike Soroka is the new Greg Maddux.. Fight me?

Dan Szymborski: Well, that’s a bit…ambitious?

John Mozeliak: Worst season of any player in 2017 belongs to….

Dan Szymborski: Pujols

THE Average Sports Fan: Between Jason Heyward and Eric Hosmer, which contract do you think turns out worse?

Dan Szymborski: Hosmer.

Dan Szymborski: Heyward’s defense makes it really hard for him to be replacement level

Dan Szymborski: He’d have to have a serious injury that destroys his D

Dan Szymborski: Now, Heyward’s been a huge disappointing and his offense ceiling is closing faster than that hallway in Wonka’s factory, but Hosmer’s shown he can actually be around replacement level

Barrett: Which position player had the best ZIPs projection for his rookie year?

Dan Szymborski: Trout

Guest: What’re your thoughts on Devers this year? I feel like his .283 xwoba per savant suggests some downside that hasn’t been talked about much.

Dan Szymborski: There’s certainly a bit of risk withi Devers

Dan Szymborski: Though ZiPS sees his upside from age and quickly advancing as more or less cancelling out the regression

S: What would it take for teams to allow MLB players to participate in the summer Olympics? MiLB?

Dan Szymborski: Control and the Summer Olympics not played in the summe.r

goms: Why won’t the Mariners sign a FA starting pitcher?

Dan Szymborski: Not sure.  A tough org to get a vibe on right now.

Matt: It makes total sense that the Pad’s signed Hosmer. As I’ve always said, “You can’t spell Eric Hosmer without ‘Some HR, rice.'”

Dan Szymborski: Also More Riches

Dan Szymborski: though I think that’s him rather than the Padres

Big Cheese: Do you think a higher end reliever acquisition makes any sense for the Jays? (Holland or Vizcaino?) or do you think they rack up on minor league deals and hope someone sticks?

Dan Szymborski: I think they go bargain shopping unless Holland starts to come down on his asking price.

KB: Who will make the playoffs via the wildcard spots this year?

Dan Szymborski: Cheating to try to get me to reveal my standings piece in a chat!

HappyFunBall: At season’s end, whose starting staff will have performed better, the ChiSox or the Os ?

Dan Szymborski: Orioles, but that’s damning with faint praise.  White Sox has upside, though I suspect any breakout as a group to be more likely than 2019

Dan Szymborski: more likely *in* 2019

Slew: Do you think it would be advisable for the Indians to make a couple “win now” moves in light of the ascendancy of the Yanks/Astros and the aging of Kluber/Carrasco?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’re properly incentivized.  They probably have the easiest divisional race.  I like the Twins, but there are realistically only two non super-long-shot AL Central winners.

Joe: Are the Orioles finished for the off season? Any chance they make a surprise splash here?

Dan Szymborski: If Cashner is their idea of a splash, I hope they get out of thte pool

Erik: Let’s say something crazy happens and you figure out how to get ZiPS up to 100% accuracy. What would you do? That would be too powerful of a weapon to unleash into the world, right? Would you realize a deliberately poor version of the projections, make billions gambling, and disappear to a private island? Would you use them to become a GM? Or would you release your forecasts to the public anyway just to see what happens?

Dan Szymborski: That accurate?  I think I just wouldn’t release projections publicly anymore.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve already had an increasing problem of Las Vegas’s over/unders coming closer every year.  It’s reduced my prime betting opportunities.

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: I bet on the teams with a 4 win differential between ZiPS and Vegas last year.  There are only half-as-many teams in that category right now

GRUMPY TURNER: Do you have a projection for Chris Martin of the Rangers, recently signed from Japan?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, it was submitted to Apples

GRUMPY TURNER: Will you be releasing a Jung-ho Kang projection?

Dan Szymborski: For this year, yes.  But it’s his last one unless he gets back to the US

Colt Holt: Given the recent success of the reds offense, and the depth of high upside low floor options at SP, although they are unlikely to post a winning record, isn’t a playoff berth plausible?

Dan Szymborski: It’s possible.  They have a lot of very interesting starting pitchers, only a couple of that were actually piching for them last year

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS already has them beter than Steamer does, into the mid-high 70s

John Oleruds Helmet: Could a two way player that’s more offense first and a solid middle reliever become the new market inefficiency? Seems like a good way to essentially give a team a 26 man roster. Maybe the Rays develop McKay this way??

Dan Szymborski: That would be pretty cool.

Sharp: Are the Orioles really going to lead the lead in homers this year?  The Yanks have 3 players who can put up 130-140 alone!

Dan Szymborski: I’d guess the Yankees

Dan Szymborski: Though th at’s not exactly going out on a limb

Sharp: Dickerson to Nats for Goodwin is just a horrid idea, right?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t see the lure.

Szan Dymborksi: You finished your team-by-team ZiPS publications, when will the full ZiPS be posted in the projections section?

Dan Szymborski: Apples has the data now, so it should be up in the not-too-distant future.

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t bug him for a date and time, he’s got other stuff to worry about too.

CamdenWarehouse: The Orioles have signed Tillman and Cashner to bolster their rotation.  1)where were they on the list of pitchers the Orioles should have gone after, 2) where were they on the list of pitchers you expected them to sign, and 3) is the rotation actually bolstered/do you think the 2018 rotation will improve on last years 5.70 ERA?

Dan Szymborski: I was gallows humor-ing at the start of the winter that the O’s would probably sign Cashner.

Dan Szymborski: Tillman’s a fine risk.

Dan Szymborski: If the O’s won’t pay for a low-risk excellent player, I’d rather a high-risk mediocrity than a mediocrity with now upside.

Sharp: Moustakas to the Nats on a 1 year deal and they dump Matt Adams

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think this is likely.

Betting Man: Who would you take not named the Astros, Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, Nats, Indians, Red Socks or Angels to win it all?

Dan Szymborski: At that point, probably Cardinals

Dan Szymborski: I think that’s literally who ZiPS has next in WS prob, but I don’t have that all opened

Dan Szymborski: Oh, back to the O’s, I think they beat 5.70.  They were a tad unlucky.  I think talent-wise, that rotation should have been like a 5-5.20 rotation.

Dan Szymborski: Not that that’s positive

Dave in London: Does Healy’s injury open the door for Vogelbach to establish himself as a major leaguer? Seems to have a much better strike-zone judgment than Healy or Ford.

Dan Szymborski: The M’s have seemed curiously uninterested in him

Sharp: At what point do starter-level free agents like Moose and Neil and the CarGos accept their fate and sign as backups on a good team?

Dan Szymborski: I think when we get into March and there are minor league cuts and teams are starting to look at their 25-man rosters

seth: Do the Reds have a better pitching staff than the Brewers?

Dan Szymborski: I’d say no.

Daro: Does Cargo to Bos makes sense? Or maybe Corey Dickerson?

Dan Szymborski: CarGo makes zero sense.

Dan Szymborski: Dickerson better, fit, but not by much

Dan Szymborski: Red Sox need to be a bit more ambitious, they’re nto a rebuilding/retooling team

The Decadent Moose: With the Padres signing at first base, which name was mentioned more: Eric Hosmer or Dave Cameron?

Dan Szymborski: Poor Dave

Tyler928: The DFA on Corey Dickerson is confusing to me. It seems that, even if the rays didn’t want to pay him, he had enough surplus value to bring at least something back in a trade. Why do you think the rays went this route?

Dan Szymborski: I’m a little confused myself

Dan Szymborski: It’s not a lot of money and they *would* be able to trade him eventually

Dan Szymborski: Now, I doubt his market’s all that exciting, but putting a hard deadline on a trade isn’t going to buoy his market, with middling hitters still available in free agency

jimmy: You are most surprised by ______’s zips projection.

Dan Szymborski: Nola?

Dan Szymborski: I like Nola, but ZiPS LOVES Nola

Crazy Man: Chances Ellsbury beats out Hicks on the spring?

Dan Szymborski: Low

Mike sixel: We’ve lost KATOH, how long until we lose zips?

Dan Szymborski: If I had interest in working for a team full-time, I’d be working for a team full-time.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not interesting in anything but selling data and I dont’ have to remove ZiPS from the public sphere to continue to do that.

Dan Szymborski: (I can’t offer any kind of advisory opinion in my job, for obvious reasons)

Dave in London: Is this the year that Carlos Rondon breaks through? He seems to have great stuff, but is always hurt

Dan Szymborski: I believe that every year!

dub: From today on would you rather have Victor Robles or JD Martinez?

Dan Szymborski: Robles

Fantasy Non-guru: How much do you believe in Brinson? I’m in a small rebuild and trade severino (3 years) for brinson (6 years) and what starting pitcher (assume 2 years)?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be more valuable in real life than fantasy

Indiana Jones: Are the Indians holding onto Danny Salazar thinking he will eventually blossom like Carrasco? If so, what are the chances he can get close to Carrasco.

Dan Szymborski: His upside is tremendous, his health has been not.  It’s hard to trade him unless you get unequal value

Dan Szymborski: I’d want to be bowled over to trade Salazar

Erik: Supposedly ZiPS is considerably higher than other projection systems on the Brewers. Do you know if ZiPS has a “type”, and if so, do the Brewers have lots of guys who fit that type?

Dan Szymborski: No, those kinds of bias are fairly easy to weed out

Matt: Dan – can I call you Dan? No? Ok, sorry – Mr. Szymborski, with Moose’s market being quite cold in terms of teams with need for a 3B, wouldn’t it make sense for him to look into a 1-year deal? I have to imagine that he could end up being a nice consolation prize to any of the teams who don’t end up landing Machado. Obviously, this hinges on there being a market for him on a one-year deal, but humor me.

Dan Szymborski: Don’t call me Mr.

Dan Szymborski: Donaldson’s a free agent too.  I think he’d either have to take a two-year-deal or get a REALLY good one-year deal.  Or his three+ deal offers have to be horribad.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Is the Hosmer signing, the type of overpay for the decline years of a flawed player deal that you used to see GMs sign players to all the time going to A) stem the tide of collusion accusations or B) be twisted by those who have decided the collusion narrative is self-evidently correct, into proof that collusion is still happening, and Drastic Action Needs To Be Taken?

Dan Szymborski: Who knows, I’m surprised they got here

Jason: Can we now say that the Padres are entering the Cameron-Hosmer era??

Dan Szymborski: Poor Dave

CamdenWarehouse: Thanks for moving back to Monday.  Wednesday was difficult

Dan Szymborski: My heart was always Monday.  I grabbed it back as soon as it freed up!

David S: So now that the Padres are clear favorites to win the division for the foreseeable future do you think the Dodgers let Kershaw walk in free agency next year?

Dan Szymborski: heh

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think Kershaw is wearing anything but a Dodger uniform in 2019.

Dan Szymborski: In games that is.  I’m not suggesting he become a never-nude that always wears his uniform

J!bo: I’m not one to cry collusion as much as “rich owners like money, figured out they can keep most of it”, but… is it not odd that right as tensions were cresting, the GM on thinnest ice with the MLB suddenly signs a premium FA to a contract structured to look bigger than it is?

Dan Szymborski: If that’s how the owners felt, I doubt they’d go with anything as obvious as that.

Rockie Dangerfield: Jeff Bridich should be on the hot seat if the Rockies miss the playoffs this year, right?  Choosing to stand pat on one of the worst offenses in team history and hoping rookie development fills the gaps has gotta be fire-worthy, right?  …right?

Dan Szymborski: Yes.

Dan Szymborski: I have little faith in the team.

Dan Szymborski: They did such a good job developing talent in the minors, but I think their run will be depressingly short for an organization with that kind of talent

Dan Szymborski: This is a team that has resisted getting value from veterans in lost seasons with a vengeance.

greg: Cat update please

Dan Szymborski: Galileo’s here bugging me for food.  Don’t know where Mercutio and Pandora are at the moment.

Dan Szymborski: Pandora doesn’t start making her case for dinner until 3:30 or so and Mercutio’s too stupid to understand about buttering up; he just wanders through his days.

nh: If Martinez does not go to Boston, and they decide that they cannot stand pat without adding a big bat, who’s a semi-realistic trade target?

Dan Szymborski: Abreu?  Nothing going on now, but it’s plausible for something like that to happen

Matt: Different angle on the Gleyber Torres/service time argument (and really any player in this position). Let’s say that Gleyber is the best option at 2B out of the gate, and if held down, the *sole* reason is service time manipulation. The gap between the Yanks and Sox is close enough that, in that particular situation, not putting the best team on the field could end up affecting the division race? And to further expand, that “present value” has to outweigh the value of a season 7 years from now, no?

Dan Szymborski: A couple weeks just doesn’t mean that much

Coach K: What do you see for Dahl of Rocs? Start in AAA or do they force him

Dan Szymborski: I clearly don’t understand what the Rockies are thinking.

Dan Szymborski: Why was Parra in a “competition” with Dahl?

Dan Szymborski: Why would you sign Ian Desmond if you only think he can play 1B and a corner?

CamdenWarehouse: They could have just given you the power to post the chat yourself.  No need to bring the evil powers into it.

William: I don’t want to think about Carson mushing anything together.

HappyFunBall: New pace of play rules came out today. Pitchers no longer guaranteed 8 warm-ups, they get 2:05 from the moment they leave the pen and cross the warning track on to the field. O/U on how long until we see an injury from (a) an RP unused to running straining something trying to get to the mound fast, or (b) an under-warmed RP exploding their elbow and blaming the rule ?

Dan Szymborski: Oh, it’ll happen, not sure when

Guest: How would you attack

Dan Szymborski: Weaponry

Nick: Who deserves more credit, re: Hosmer deal, the Romulans, RAND Corp. or Boras?

Dan Szymborski: Boras

Ethan : What would you rather have, Scott Shebler and his 30+ home runs and barely passable cf D, or Billy Hamilton and his elite D and barely passable offense?

Dan Szymborski: Probably Hamilton here

William: Who becomes a National: Jake Arrieta or Lance Lynn?

Dan Szymborski: Lynn strikes me as more likely.

Dave in London: I know he’s not a great fielder, but how is it that Moose doesn’t have a job, or even many possibilities? Doesn’t 38 HRs count for anything these days?

Dan Szymborski: Comes down to demands

Dan Szymborski: A contract requires a meeting of the minds

Humidor: How would one put humidor effects into projections?  Have you?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t.  Simply not enough info.

Matt: Is Luis Castillo an ace?

Dan Szymborski: He’s heading there

Matt: For fun, I’m working on building a projection system. I’m going to try to base it on estimating true means per season, and modeling the distribution of change by age. The game is changing enough that building it on the most recent 10 years of data should be relatively sufficient, right?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure that it’s changed much for *this* purpose.

Chuncey Wiggins: What is your ideal game of baseball to watch? Is it more home run focused? Lots of steals? 17 mound visits?

Dan Szymborski: I just want a variety and for the late innings to be competitive

Franklin: Which youngster is the better offensive player this year and going forward… Buxton or Mazara?

Dan Szymborski: Mazara, though Buxton obviously better overall

Dan Szymborski: Though Buxton morre valuable in fantasy

Ode to Oddities: Someone in Sawchik’s chat mentioned that Cozart was projected by PECOTA for .4 WARP this year. He has averaged 4.5 WARP/600 past 3 years. Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t run PECOTA!  You’d have to ask Rob McQuown or someone.

Matt: If you were to put a Monday between two pieces of bread, is that a Thursday Sandwich? or a hot dog?

Dan Szymborski: Why wouldn’t it be a Monday sandwich?

nh: thoughts on a potential panik-lagares swap?

Dan Szymborski: Would actually be fun

The Ghost of Wade Boggs: Considering how bad they’re projected to in the foreseeable future and how much money they’ve had come off the books, if the Tigers were to hypothetically use that money to sign both Harper and Machado, how far away from the playoffs would they still be?

Dan Szymborski: They’d probably be an 80 win team right now

nh: how many versions of predictive models did you play with before settling on the formula for zips?

Dan Szymborski: Never did FULL versions, but I have the shells of a lot of different ideas in my old spreadsheet dump folder

Walker: How many 2018 wins would a team currently built from free agents have?

Dan Szymborski: They’d be in the bottom half of the league.

Dan Szymborski: Probably somewhere around 70 wins

B: I realize JD Martinez is a better player than Corey Dickerson. But, wouldn’t the Red Sox be wise to explore signing Dickerson rather than Martinez? They could probably get Dickerson for 1/10th of the cost.

Dan Szymborski: They’re not in a position for thrift.

Dan Szymborski: They’re a serious contender.  Their goal should be to beat New York, not fall short of the Yankees in an efficient manner.

Ross: What do you expect from Robbie Ray? Buy him as an ace, or will he regress?

Dan Szymborski: He’s an ace

That Guy in Detroit: If the Tigers trade Fulmer, what kind of value do you think he’d bring back?

Dan Szymborski: He’d get a serious package for sure.  I

William: Can you explain (or send me somewhere to understand) how ZiPs “generates player projections on the fly / is a nonparametric model”? This seems different from, for instance, Pecota…

Dan Szymborski: PECOTA works in similar fashion, as did the first projection system that took this approach that I’m aware of, the Elias Baseball Analyst one in the late 80s

Dan Szymborski: There are no “pre-cooked” curves.

Bob Sacamano: Is it just me or did Stephen Piscotty slip through ZiPS projections? Any chance the master list comes out soon?

Dan Szymborski: As I said!

Diego Szymborski: I think you might have gotten some of my emails.  Can you forward them to me?

Dan Szymborski: heh

Matt: I came into work on my day off and haven’t accomplished anything. I blame you, Dan Szymborski.

Dan Szymborski: Destroying the economy, one chat at a time

Roadhog: Prediction: Moustakas gets a 2 year deal to play LF

Dan Szymborski: He’s not that exciting as a LF

Go Padres: What would have to happen in order for the Padres to compete for a wildcard spot this year?

Dan Szymborski: Different decisions made in 2013-2016.

toki: Any chance the Red Sox go crazy and try to pry Votot loose now that he’s skeptical of the Reds chances to rebuild in what is left of his career?

Dan Szymborski: I suspect Votto stays in Cincy

Matt: In all seriousness – we don’t know what role Cameron went to with the Pads (maybe you do). But we know that it was “an offer he couldn’t refuse”, so in theory, they really wanted his insights. Then they signed the guy he spent the last 3 months trying to convince teams not to sign…

Dan Szymborski: As far as I know, they want him to assemble an analytics department.

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t talked with him about any of this, but if I did, I wouldn’t say anything I was told in confidence anwyay

CamdenWarehouse: I hear there might be a GM job opening in Baltimore you could have in October…

Dan Szymborski: Oh god no

Dan Szymborski: If I were actually offered a straight GM job — that is not going to happen — my curiosity would probably take over and make me change my stance

Colin: Who’s the odd men out in the SD outfield now? Pirela? Renfroe? Margot? Dickerson?

Dan Szymborski: I suspect the Padres play Pirela a lot at 2nd and leave Asuaje largely the odd man out

Roadhog: Bob Melvin makes it sound like AJ Puk as a very outside chance of breaking camp with the team, but could you see him up in July?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Chaz Michael Michaels: Is Avi Garcia good

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: But Roberto Clemente at the top of his comp list at least gets me wondering if he may be a BABIP freak of nature after all

Dan Szymborski: Then I remember the rest of the players on the comp list

Dan Szymborski: (Clemente wasn’t a good player until his later 20s)

nh: should the next CBA include a draft to distribute the Orioles’ international signing pool amongst the other teams?

Dan Szymborski: heh

Chuncey Wiggins: Would you be interested in a seeded playoff rather than a division/league playoff?

Dan Szymborski: Not particularly

Marcel: Favorite volume of In Search of Lost Time?

Dan Szymborski: I’m actually very poorly read in Proust

Matt: You ever wonder if your cats are conducting late-night cat chats on the dark web giving “sleeping human” updates?

Dan Szymborski: Galileo maybe

CamdenWarehouse: Does Galileo do anything other than sleep and bug you for food?  He’s old enough to have a job.

Dan Szymborski: He’ll sit with me and not bug me for food.  But the hour or two before dinner (4 PM) , his evening milk (10 PM) and his breakfast (10 AM), he’s generally rather annoying

Guest: Tillman AND Cashner? Yankees/Red Sox must be panicking, right?!

Dan Szymborski: Well, it could be the result of a dangerous transmittable disease that attacks brains

Dan Szymborski: Galileo’s birthday is on Thursday, so he gets an Arby’s roast beef.

Dan Szymborski: He’s a robust cat for his age (he’ll be 19) but he hasn’t been a particularly productive cat for like 10 years.

Dan Szymborski: Sometimes Mercutio will smack him to try and roughhouse, but Galileo will just casually ignore it and not move an inch as if poor Mercutio is a gnat

JSDee: As a padres fan, i’m still most perplexed by the jordan lyles signing.  guaranteed money! how?!?!

The Ghost of Wade Boggs: Conspiracy theory: The Padres only hired Dave Cameron to cut down on the public backlash of the Hosmer signing

Dan Szymborski: It didn’t work.

Raul Gillette: Yanks need some kind of veteran 2B/3B and have tons of prospect depth. Pirates would like to shed Harrison’s salary and rebuild. Harrison carries a $6.8MM tax hit, which fits in with the ~$12MM in payroll room that Cashman has publicly stated. This has to happen at some point, no?

Dan Szymborski: I suspect they’re more interesting in Moustakas

Dan Szymborski: interested

Joe: thought on rockies pitching staff

Dan Szymborski: Really good and very underrated.

Ode to Oddities: Do you know the standard deviation of player WAR projections? In terms of projected WAR-actual WAR

Dan Szymborski: It’s a little tricky because playing time is wrapped up in it.

Colin: How long until the home plate ump is permanently replaced by his robot overlord?

Dan Szymborski: Should’ve been already, at least for ball/strike location calls

toki: If the whole of Chase field is a humidor now does that mean when its retired someone will buy that for cigar storage?

Dan Szymborski: Arizona will eventually demand two new stadiums, one to play in and one to store the baseballs

P: How much time do these pace of play changes save? It looks like the owners are giving up commercial revenues too, is that fair to say? Does the idea of this coming down the pipe have any impact on what’s happened this off season? (Sorry if this was asked earlier. I just showed up and haven’t caught up on the chat yet)

Dan Szymborski: Probably not much time in the big picture.

Dan Szymborski: Shorter commercials would help

Dan Szymborski: I’d be happy with a pitch clock and only letting the batter step out of the box in very few situations

Jonathan: The embarrassing question all (three?) of us have been waiting to ask:  when will you release ZiPS’ Diamond Mind range ratings?

Dan Szymborski: They’ll come earlier as I actually did them while projecting players.

Colin: Can Jordan Montgomery stick in the Yankees rotation with all the looming talent about to emerge?

Dan Szymborski: He can

Mike sixel: Do the Twins not think Lynn or Cobb is good? Are they frugal? What is the plan while Buxton and Sano are here?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think Lynn is that good.

Dan Szymborski: And Cobb has risks.

West Coast Wreck: Why is Andrelton Simmons not considered for a specialty relief role?  The eye-ball test based on his throw from SS to 1st say, “95-99 mph, insanely high spin rate 4 seamer with deadly command/control with quick arm action adding deception”

Dan Szymborski: I think they’re worried that he gets injured pitching and then they don’t have a SS.  May not be worth it if it’s not a position he already plays

The Decadent Moose: Lightning Round:  Do you like sour beers?
I’m working on something that may be ready in 3 months or so.  I’ll send a bottle along if it work outs.
Note: Eno liked the “mother” beer of this; a pale ale with a couple adjuncts.

Dan Szymborski: I do, but I know a very nice youngish woman who is obsessed with sour beers.

Dan Szymborski: (Those who were at the FG Staten Island thing may have met her)

nh: godley’s projections are all over the place – buy or sell?

Dan Szymborski: Depends on the package.

Dzamb: The Show combined with OOTP. The perfect video game?

Dan Szymborski: That would be great!

Dan Szymborski: Like a baseball Total War

Eminor3rd: Prediction (hope): Moustakas goes the way of the jaded 70’s slugger, spurning the “lowball” MLB offers he has received and becomes the highest paid player in the NPB!

Jason: STL sports writer recently said that new coaches on the team will be worth 7-10 wins this season.  On a scale of zero to bat-shit, how crazy is this?

Dan Szymborski: That’s a bit crazy.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has Cards right now at 87 with no new coach juicing the projections

Dan Szymborski: Wanna argue that they’re actually a 94-97 win team ?  I wouldn’t

CSP: Better 2018 OF for shopping teams: Dickerson or Renfroe?

Dan Szymborski: Dickerson if you want short-term, Renfroe if you’re rolling the dice a bit

Guest: If raul mondesi had prospect eligibility left would he be in the top 100? need some sort of glimmer of hope for the royals

Dan Szymborski: Yes

CamdenWarehouse: What is a productive cat?

Dan Szymborski: You know, looking out the window a lot.  Playing with a toy.  Destroying a couch.  Chasing another cat.

The Ghost of Wade Boggs: Everybody seems to be talking about this Fünke prospect around the water cooler . . .

nh: jon gray or patrick corbin in fantasy?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS actually says Gray even with Coors

Matt: I think the Yanks are all-in on Andujar. How would they marry that thought with a Moose signing? Is Moose a good enough player to *bring in* to block Andujar? Do you try to know it to a one-year deal? Do you not allow a NTC?

Dan Szymborski: Moose fits better as he may take a short deal.

Desperate, confused Marlins fan: Is Nick Senzel the next Michael Young?

Dan Szymborski: That’ mean

CamdenWarehouse: “only letting the batter step out of the box in very few situations” – Didn’t they implement this a couple years ago only to stop enforcing it?

Dan Szymborski: The problem with any pace of play with discretion means you have to get umps to enforce it

Matt: Do you have an exclusive deal with FG relating to ZiPS, or do you guys just have a mutually beneficial relationship? If you wanted to, could you release them parallely on your own (hypothetical) website with 25%/75% confidence ranges?

Dan Szymborski: I’m a long-time friend of FG

Dan Szymborski: and there’s a good FG/ESPN relationship

Dan Szymborski: Generally, the goal is to keep from clashing with the latter’s needs.

Big Cheese: Will you release a ZIPS List for players who were left off of the teams reports?

Dan Szymborski: I actually did a pretty good job.  The team rundowns only missed 11 guys that FG depth charts had projected for more than 1 PA or 1 IP

Dan Szymborski: There will be requests

Dan Szymborski: I did about 2600 this year

Go Padres: Dan, can you give us your most optimistic take/scenario for the Hosmer signing. please

Dan Szymborski: Hosmer suddenly realizes he doesn’t have to hit like Willie Mays Hayes

E: I am far less qualified than you but if offered a GM job how could you not take it? The opportunity to make a bunch of money and probably failing spectacularly? Sign me up!

Dan Szymborski: I did make an exception for a GM job that I would not get!

nh: girlfriend wants a cat, surprising her…need your expertise, what equipment should i be prepared with

Dan Szymborski: Litter box, toys, food

Dan Szymborski: scratching post

Matt: My FG/ZiPS question was mostly relating to the intervals. I would love to get some intervals on projections – most give the median outcome, but would love to see higher/lower probability numbers as well.

Dan Szymborski: The problem is that each player literally has a different error bar.

Dan Szymborski: On that note, I have to get going.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me, everyone!  You can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections at FanGraphs, and at DSzymborski on Twitter.

Dan Szymborski: Oxford commas über alles!