Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 2/26/18

Dan Szymborski: Hey guys!

Lee: What are your thoughts on Franchy Cordero’s # of plate appearances in the majors this year?

Dan Szymborski: It’d be surprised if he got more than 100 honestly.

ericstephenisgod: is wilmer font the nl cy young favorite at this point?

Dan Szymborski: Ha

Lee: Did Thor just peak for the year? 7 of 12 perfect 1st inning pitches at 100 or 101 mph

Dan Szymborski: Crap, am I missing Thor?

ericstephenisgod: will the dodgers rework matt kemp’s contract after he wins the mvp?

Dan Szymborski: Again, Ha

Al: Noah Syndergaard hitting 101 in first ST start. Everything is good in the world

Chuncey Wiggins: Who would hit more baseballs off a tee, you or Mike Trout after a dizzy bat race?

Dan Szymborski: I can hit off a tee

ChiSox2020: What do you make of the SFG in 2018?  Do they make the playoffs?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’re a wild card contender, but could use evern more help.

Mr. Freeze: Which version of Trevor Story would you predict we see going forward? The one who couldn’t stop hitting home runs, or the one the Rockies started benching later in 2017?

Dan Szymborski: Boringly, somewhere int he middle.

THE Average Sports Fan: Is there value in Reds making some outlays of cash and trending closer to a .500 team?

Dan Szymborski: Not this year, I don’t t hin

Mike Blaze: After the initial run of projections, do you periodically update them based on moves, changes to playing time, etc.?

Dan Szymborski: Well, moves, but playing time changes are part of what I do to project teams, not part of the standard released dataset

Mike: Dbacks fan here and I have been scouting out the NL WC competition. I understand all the O/U/logic for the teams besides two–mets and cardinals.  Cardinals have weak rotation depth and an average at best bullpen to go along with an above average, but hardly excellent set of position players. Mets have two aces, pretty solid collection of arms behind those guys to comprise 3 other rotation slots and a sneaky (really?) good bullpen. They have a similarly above average set of position players as the Cards (with maybe best OF offense in MLB). What am i Missing?

Dan Szymborski: I think you may be underestimated the Cards rotation depth.

Dan Szymborski: Even if you decided that Wainwright is done, they have six pitchers that may be average or better.

Fred: How much do you expect the humidor in Arizona to affect Diamondbacks players?

Dan Szymborski: It’s very dry, so I imagine that itwill have an effect.  It’s one of those interesting things around the league.

Desperate, confused Marlins fan: Wouldnt it make sense for a team like the Marlins to go after guys like CarGo or Arrieta and then trade them when they recover their value and are needed by a contending team?

Dan Szymborski: Arrieta maybe, but if he wants tot ake a cheap contract, he can get it better places

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think CarGo makes a lot of sense; I’m not sure his value ever recovers

Dreamer: What are the chances Matt Harvey has an actually decent year?

Dan Szymborski: They’re disapperaing, but I wouldn’t compeltely call him off

CamdenWarehouse: If you had to pick a current star to completely fall off a cliff this year to never recover, who would it be?

Dan Szymborski: Does Miggy still count?  There’s a real possibility

UncleWeez: If Devin Mesoraco opens the year healthy and somewhat productive, do the Reds shop him at the deadline? Barnhart is entrenched, but the backup C options are kinda rough in Cincy

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s likely, but that’s also a big if.

BEN GAMEL GRADE 80 HAIR: Dee Gordon’s ZIPs Fld of 7.7 = assuming this is @ 2b? What do you project in CF?

Dan Szymborski: I projected him as a CF

Korean: Apparently Kemp lost 30LB and looks fit for Spring Training. Would he still be that atrocious at LF? Chances of a minor rebound where he’s no longer the WORST fielder out there but just a bad fielder who still puts up 115-120 wRC+?

Dan Szymborski: He was in the best shape of his life last spring too.

Dan Szymborski: With writers praising how young and spry and fit and motivated he was non-stop.

Dan Szymborski: And he was garbage.

Dan Szymborski: Fact is, Kemp has the defensive instincts of a bag of turnips.  Weight may help, but he still isn’t going to be young Kemp

hscer: I don’t know how to decide on keepers.

Dan Szymborski: THAT’S LITERALLY THE JOB!

Billy Beane: Dan, just found out my fiancee makes white chili with BEANS and doesn’t like it too spicy. I have to end things, right?

Dan Szymborski: Absolutely

Gus: If Yandy  looks like he’s getting the ball off the group more, and Kipnis looks healthy in spring training, what do you do with the Indians infield?

Dan Szymborski: I expect you’ll see Kipnis in a Zobristian type role if there’s a position controversy

Dave: Encarnacion, do you see him continuing to produce at his past production , leveling off, or on the downside?

Dan Szymborski: He’s had his OPS+ decline a bit for four straight years, I believe.  He’s 35.  Time always wins in the end.

Gus: Do you know why Zips is generally low on Altuve? I figured it was a size / late developing power thing, but Jose Ramirez is a similar case, has less history of being elite, and projects higher.

Dan Szymborski: 6th best position player in MLB is low?

Dan Szymborski: 7th in 2017 projections.

Dan Szymborski: If you’re asking “why does ZiPS project superstars to have fewer WAR than their recent history,” superstars do not have a nice, pretty bell curve around their expectations.  It’s very skewed, with a lot more downside than upside.

Chase Kimura: What do you think about the Angels being interested in Holland? Eppler hasn’t shown a propensity to sign relievers to big contracts and while Holland struggled mightily in the second half, I can’t help but be intrigued by his upside in the back end of the pen.

Dan Szymborski: He’s fine at a bargain.  I wish the Angels would go after Arrieta.

Gus: Nevermind, Steamer is the one low on Altuve!

Dan Szymborski: Oh

Dan Szymborski: DAMMIT I CANT UNANSWER A QUESTION

Dan Szymborski: This is Carson’s fault sometime.

Perry: Please explain to Red Sox fans why JD Martinez isn’t nearly as valuable as Giancarlo Stanton

Dan Szymborski: Defense counts and two years younger does matter.

toki: Has Turk Wendell brushed his teeth since he retired?

Dan Szymborski: I would hope so!

WiseMan: Dan, if a tree falls in the woods and no one is around to hear it, is it more likely to be a sandwich or a ravioli?

Dan Szymborski: I’m a structural purist, so a tree is likely to be niether

CamdenWarehouse: oh no, did you forget that you’re chatting on Mondays again?

Dan Szymborski: No, I’m just in a conference call at the same time

Nate: Who is the worst player currently projected in a starting role, batter or hitter?

Dan Szymborski: No guarantee on jobs, but probably Adam Engel or Hunter Dozier or maybe Matt Davidson

Dan Szymborski: Hey, it could be Pujols

Hans Gruber: Over/Under Smoak HR Total: 33

Dan Szymborski: I’ll say under, but it’s not far

Hans Gruber: Follow up to last question: why are projections down on Smoaks HR total from last year so much? (38 to ~31)

Dan Szymborski: Previous Year is not the best projection sy stem.

Matt: Great new idea for All-Star break: Pro/Am softball game. The pro’s are current pros, but required to be hammered drunk.

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: You are appointed as GM of a middle market team with a decidedly middle market payroll.  Your owner is forcing you to swallow one of two pills: 1) Trade for and take on all of Jason Heyward’s contract, or 2) Trade for and start Tim Tebow for all of 2018.  Which one do you take?

Dan Szymborski: Might actually go with Tebow.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, Tebow sucks, but people will be understanding that I was involved in a pretty awful weird deal

Sammy: What do you expect from Amed Rosario in 2018? Dude has an 80-grade SS body if I’ve ever seen one (Heyward minus 3 inches)

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be fine, but it might be another year befor ehe breaks out

Matt: Mikolas. Tell me what you know about this man. I’m thinking he’s somewhere between an interesting back-end fantasy starter and a Russian plant.

Dan Szymborski: I like Miles Mikolas becuase he sounds like a Harry Potter character.

Dan Szymborski: Like Callix Crabbe

Dan Szymborski: or Agustin Septimo

Dan Dan the Cheerleading Man: Is the correct name sub, hoagie, hero, or grinder?

Dan Szymborski: sub

Donger: What do you think of the Rasmus signing for BAL?  He was surprisingly good last year in the brief time he was TB.  If he’s healthy again, I think he could end up the sneaky steal of this offseason.

Dan Szymborski: It’s fine, but not really going to meet the problems of the Orioles

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Which is the more disappointing sandwich from the last 10 years?  The Pirates Ownership Frozen Ham and Cheese or the Troy Tulowitzki Convenience Store Egg Salad?

Dan Szymborski: Possibly the former.

Dan Szymborski: They did 80% of the rebuild well, but they fell off quickly, they never went that FINAL yard to go into win-now mode, even if it was fated to be shrot.

Dan Szymborski: Now combine that with some bad luck on things like Kang and they dropped off really wuickly

Joe: Aaron Nola or Sonny Gray?

Dan Szymborski: Nola

Cold in Minnesota: LoMo put up enough numbers to make him one of the better value FA signings?  Plus with likely Sano suspension/injury he’s even more valuable

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has Hosmer projected to 0.2 WAR a year better than Morrison over the next 5 years

Dan Szymborski: Though that may say more about Lolsmer.

Lou : Is the pending free agency of Machado and Donaldson screwing over Moose?

Dan Szymborski: In a way.  He might want a two-year pillow.

Derek Jeter: What are the honest odds I’m a Yankee sleeper cell, at least 5%, right?

Dan Szymborski: Lower.

CamdenWarehouse: I think Miggy fell off his cliff last year

Dan Szymborski: If you’ve seen Pujols, you know you haven’t seen th e splat

Billy Beane: I feel like being a baseball writer would almost benefit you being in bad shape. Like, “I’m in the worst shape of my life, not going to waste any time exercising, just going to focus on my writing.”

Dan Szymborski: I’ve cut way back on beer to lose weight.

Dan Szymborski: It’s smart to maximize your life expectancy so you can hang around to be a crazy coot at 85.

Colin: I know you’ve used ZiPS in the past for betting win totals, but have you ever gone and tried to find edges with season props using player projections? ie HR Leader, Hits leader, etc.

Dan Szymborski: I do all the time!

Dan Szymborski: I’m a heavy prop bettor.

Dan Szymborski: Which is good for individuals but becoming harder for teams as Vegas and ZiPS become a little closer every year

Dan Szymborski: My favorite bet (though not necessarily the most lucrative) was $200 on Scherzer to win the Cy going into 2013.

Dan Szymborski: Favorite since it led an article!

Chili Davis: Dan, chili without beans is just meat soup. Take it from me, I know Chili

Dan Szymborski: Just becuase you were named Chili doesn’t give you chilithority.

Dan Szymborski: Do you think B.J. Upton was an authority on nevermind

kevin: What *should* I look at in spring training if I want to get an idea re: how a player may perform in the regular season?

Dan Szymborski: Do they exist?

E: How would baseball change if humans couldn’t get injured?

Dan Szymborski: More innings

CamdenWarehouse: The Orioles don’t know how to decide on keepers either

Dan Szymborski: The Orioles front office/ownership is bad at their job too.

E: Any inside info on which baseball writers are in the best shape of their life coming in to this season?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t seen him but Passan is typically in good shape

Joe: Dan, I told my dad that a pop tart should be considered a sandwich, then he went for a pack of cigarettes. That was 3 days ago and he hasn’t come back. Should I worry?

Dan Szymborski: Better gone

Dan Dan the Cheerleading Man: Whats the difference between chili with no beans and ground beef taco meat? Am I actually eating chili tacos or even worse, am I eating a chili sandwich?

Dan Szymborski: If your chili meat tastes like your taco meat, you’ve made proper chili wrong

Dan Szymborski: Chili = Diced chuck + chili peppers (plus seasoning)

Kemp Truther: Is there a youTube channel dedicated to Matt Kemp messing up in the outfield? I vaguely remember during his nascent, good offensive years for the Dodgers announcers would mention that he didn’t have good instincts but is it really THAT bad? and STILL that bad? Also, Travis’ post this morning about decline in defensive chances suggests a team could sacrifice outfield defense. What say you?

Dan Szymborski: Is there?  I think you would just call that “game film”

Matt: Chili con carne (Spanish pronunciation: [?t?ili ko? ?ka?ne];[1] English: chili with meat), commonly known in American English as simply “chili”, is a spicy stew containing chili peppers, meat (usually beef), and often tomatoes and beans.

WITH BEANS, DAN
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chili_con_carne

Dan Szymborski: It’s wikipedia

hscer: I do think I’m pretty sure I might know what I’m doing with pitchers at least.

Dan Szymborski: OK, so you’re better than the orioles!

Druidiful: When isn’t it Carson’s fault?

Dan Szymborski: When love and goodness is involved

Pad Squad: Cleveland’s window of contention will shrink around the same time that San Diego’s opens. What would it take for the Padres to trade for Jose Ramirez? Do you like him for SD?

Dan Szymborski: It would take a LOT

Dan Szymborski: ANd yeah, if they can get him ane xtend him, why not?

S: Will David Dahl start 100 games?

Dan Szymborski: If he’s healthy and the Rockies are dumbasses.  I’m not sure which of those is riskier.

Shawn: Is Hunter Renfroe a “Yes, we need to get him as a future cog” type target, or just a needs to be in the AL bat piece who can easily be overrated? Asking a Braves fan with an OF need.

Dan Szymborski: He’s interesting, but he’s not likely to be a future core piece.  It’s an upside play that a rebuilding team makes rather than throw whatever 32 year old signs cheaply out there

Evil Dead : How are we liking Ozzie Albies as a breakout star this year with lots of speed and runs scored and some average and power?

Dan Szymborski: A lot

Jonathan: Assuming Statcast, wearable tech, etc. eventually provide orders of magnitude more data to work with, could you see a deep learning approach to projecting performance prove more valuable than the way it’s currently done?

Dan Szymborski: Could very well be.

Dan Szymborski: Machine learning in projections right now is plagued simply by lack of data, especially for the more unusual types

CamdenWarehouse: How long has the Troy Tulowitzki Egg Salad been sitting out?  It’s not like he’s that durable on his own.

William: if you could convince statistics-minded fans to think differently in one way, what way would it be?

Dan Szymborski: STOP EMAILING ME OR TWEETING AT ME THAT HAVING NO PLAYERS WITH A MEAN PROJECTION OF A .320 BATTING AVERAGE MEANS THAT ZIPS IS PROJECTING NOBODY TO HIT .320 WHEN THE SEASON ACTUALLY ENDS BECAUSE THAT’S NOW WHAT THAT MEANS (AND SIMILAR COMPLAINS)

Rhys Hoskins: Dan, I notice that ZiPS projects me at 34 HR, not 84. What gives?

Dan Szymborski: I’m sorry

Billy Beane: Good on you for the health stuff Dan. That was supposed to just be a ‘Best Shape of My Life’ joke and not a stab at you. Apologies if it came off that way.

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard because beer is delicious

Dan Szymborski: But it’s shocking how quickly I lose weight when I don’t drink beer.  There are a lot of calories there!

Babe Lincoln: How’s you make out on the Scherzer bet?

Dan Szymborski: $4k

Chili Davis: Respect my chilithority!!

Dan Szymborski: I mean you wouldn’t be a chili authority when you were one, anyway?

Dan Szymborski: It might have play-doh in the chili

Dave: C.J.Cron in Toronto – boom or bust?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, was he traded again?

Dan Szymborski: Neither anywyere.  He’s one of those below-average, above-replacement guys that has a job for five years or so before fading out to become the hitting coach at Cedar Rapids or State College.

CamdenWarehouse: Next time you’re Baltimore, I’ll buy you a vegan chili

Dan Szymborski: You better not.

hscer: do you think Cameron considered a hunger strike over the Hosmer signing

Dan Szymborski: I doubt it!

CamdenWarehouse: How much are you looking forward to April when every question is going to be “how sustainable is <insert ridiculous line>”?

Dan Szymborski: It’s easy to answer questions with “April”

S: Why would starting Dahl make the Rockies dumb?

Dan Szymborski: Err, did I phrase that?

Dan Szymborski: Dahl being healthy is risky.

Dan Szymborski: Rockies being smart enough to play a healthy Dahl is risky.

Luis Castillo: There’s more helium in me than a dozen balloons.  Am I worth it, or overvalued at this point?

Dan Szymborski: Who’s treating Castillo like a 3.14 ERA guys?

Dan Szymborski: People are treating him like a 3.80 ERA guy who can throw a 98.,

Billy Beane: Dan, is there a way for you to kick out these beans in chili defenders? I feel like we need a new prison island like Australia or Alcatraz for them.

Dan Szymborski: Dementors.

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Just wanted to say that I appreciate the fact that you and Eno have always answered my ridiculous questions.

hscer: why is no one going to hit .320 this year dan ; D

Dan Szymborski: ILL CUT YOU

Late in the draft: Who’s your favorite sleeper named Derek?

Dan Szymborski: Fisher?

Drunk Economist: Does Pittsburgh’s economy fail without the tax revenue from McCutchen jersey sales?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t forget, most of the team cut from merchandising is shared evenly with the exceptino of team run stores.

Mike: Matt Kemp once put up -28 defensive runs as a center fielder and was a replacement level player despite a 900+ OPS

Dan Szymborski: He’s special

CamdenWarehouse: OK, Corner Stable ribs

Dan Szymborski: NOW WE’RE TALKING

Dan Szymborski: Cockeysville makes me sad though with Padonia Station being closed.

Dan Szymborski: I think I watched five Super Bowls there, probably 20 wrestling PPVs, and a brewery amount of beer there.

Matt: Who’s your favorite Yankees name Giancarlo?

Dan Szymborski: If he were a Nix brother, his name would be Giyancarlo.

Jim: Is Jordan Montgomery the most underrated part of the Yankees rotation?

Dan Szymborski: Quite possibly yes.

Tim Tebow: Dan, God told me I’m ready to play Major League ball. Skip right over AA, AAA, all that jazz. You pumped to see me in a Mets uni?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not a Met fan, so sure

CamdenWarehouse: Padonia Station is where we used send away people leaving the company.  Have to go to High Tops now.

Dan Szymborski: They used to have all-you-can-eat nuclear wings for $9.99 on Mondays, great for Monday Night Football.

Dan Szymborski: Though we’d occasionally go to Damon’s, which would occasionally have all-you-can-eat ribs for $15.99 on Mondays.

Dan Szymborski: In fact, that’s why I missed most of 9/11

Dan Szymborski: I was at Padonia Station with my friends Jay and Phil and a few other people, watching the Broncos/Giants game on Monday Night football on 9/10

Dan Szymborski: That was the game McCaffrey shattered his leg and Roland Williams had like that crazy 90 yard punt

Dan Szymborski: err Rodney Williams

Dan Szymborski: So after all those ribs and Sierra Nevada pale ales, I was out until like noon.

Dan Szymborski: It’s weird how the scariness of 9/11 made memories of 9/10 stick out, there was no reason to remember that night so starkly

Matt: If I could post a slow clap GIF here, I would in relation to your Nix reference

Endy Chavez: Mania looks… good? Nak/AJ and the Rousey match have my attention, what about you?

Dan Szymborski: Should be fun!

CanRodBond: A triple Baileys tastes better than beer, and puts you under the bleachers faster

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to get me truly drunk

Dan Szymborski: I’ve only barfed from drinkign twice in my life and that’s not because I’m a light drinker.

Joe: I was once in the middle of a massive fight at high tops that ended up with 30 cops showing up and me witnessing a guy throw a handgun into a trash can at the bar. I also lost a number a girl gave me. Rough night.

Matt: “Jay” and “Phil”. Are those really just your cats, Dan?

Dan Szymborski: Phil and I have been friends since we were 10.  Jay I met in my first year of college, he’s like 7 years older than me and a youth pastor

Dan Szymborski: Two of my three cats that I had on 9/11 are still around!

Beastin 25/8: Did you credit the creator of ZIPS?

Dan Szymborski: Screw him.

B.J. Surhoff: Speaking of areas of expertise, I think it’s timely regarding the sharing of a certain story of mine.  Now this was back in the day, when Beloit was a sleepier sort of town, populated by bicycle-wielding ragamuffins and the like.  I was young and naive, and when my teammates informed me that it was my turn to treat the lot of them to a fine meal at Ruth’s Chris, I assumed I would simply have to come up with a rather enormous sum.  This dilemma led me to a house of ill-repute, where I was told Baseballers could make fast money.  The solution was tamer than one might think, for I was simply given a bat and told to thwack drunkards and miscreants in the head until they quieted.  It was the best bone-in filet mignon I’ve ever had.

E: I’m going to Cincy March 16-19, where should/shouldn’t I go?

Dan Szymborski: DONT EAT THE CHILI ITS NOT CHILI

Adam: Dan, I’m not sure that your response about Jay and Phil excludes that they’re cats.

Dan Szymborski: It would be weird if I had a cat I met when I was 10 (that would make the cat at least 29) or a cat that is 46.

Joe: Tell E to just not go to Cincy

CamdenWarehouse: An upstanding place like Padonia Station wouldn’t let cats eat at the bar

Dan Szymborski: OK, on that note, time for me to head off for another week as it’s 3 and the chat has gotten weirder than usual.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone!

Dan Szymborski: You can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs, and at DSzymborski on Twitter.

Dan Szymborski: Now, go enjoy what remains of your life before Cistulli figures out how to end it.