Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 2/1/16
February 1, 2016
| 11:58 |
: And so it begins.
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| 11:59 |
: OH GOD THERES NO QUESTION QUEUE I’M SCARED
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| 11:59 |
: How was your weekend?
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| 11:59 |
: Sleepy. I ate way too many cookies Friday.
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| 11:59 |
: Why does ZiPS project K/9 rather than K%?
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| 12:00 |
: ZiPS doesn’t explicitly project K/9 or K%. Probably easier for Cistulli to calculate since I don’t give him TBF in the base readout.
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| 12:00 |
: Is it just me, or did the Diamondbacks seemingly make another dumb trade?
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| 12:00 |
: It’s not great, but it’s not horrid.
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| 12:00 |
: What do you think rickey Henderson is doing right this exact second?
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| 12:00 |
: Stealing bases.
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| 12:00 |
: So Dan, reading your tweets after the Dickerson trade, you were a huge fan of it from the Rockies’ perspective. Can you elaborate on your thoughts?
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| 12:00 |
: I was?
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| 12:00 |
: Thoughts on the Segura trade for both teams?
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| 12:01 |
: Good for Brewers, meh for Arizona.
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| 12:01 |
: It’s easy to bash the Rockies FO, but aren’t they a prisoner of an owner who won’t commit to a rebuild, and won’t spend any money?
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| 12:01 |
: I criticize the organization as a whole.
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| 12:01 |
: However, convincing an owner to have good plans is, in fact, part of the *job* of a VP/GM.
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| 12:02 |
: If my editor tells me that he only wants me to write columns talking about how much I enjoy bubblegums and my columns then suck, don’t I have a part in that?
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| 12:02 |
: So when will the ZiPs release this week? Do we get an extra tomorrow or Thursday? Thanks by the way.
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| 12:02 |
: I left it open to Carson’s convenience.
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| 12:02 |
: I hate to clash with you, but two weeks ago, ZiPS projected that AJ Styles wouldn’t be in the Rumble. How could it be so phenomenally wrong?
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| 12:02 |
: Well, I did, not ZiPS. Didn’t think they’d undermine their announcement about Raw.
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| 12:03 |
: Is it just me or does Diaz (ari/mil trade) remind you of Rougned Odor around the same age?
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| 12:03 |
: It’s hard to say as Odor was far more advanced.
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| 12:04 |
: Why is Tyler Clippard still a FA?
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| 12:04 |
: He has not signed a contract with a major league team as of yet.
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| 12:04 |
: OK, now that we’re moving, starring off-topic Qs for lightning round
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| 12:04 |
: Most complete team at this point, including depth?
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| 12:04 |
: Gotta be the Cubs.
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| 12:04 |
: Most fantasy sites list Addison Russell between 13-18th on SS rankings. Aside from potentially batting 9th, why is the outlook for Russell this season much lower than some of the other SS’s who were rookies last year?
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| 12:05 |
: If you’re asking why he’s not ranked as highly as Lindor and Correa it’s that he didn’t play as well as them. Not sure why he should get an equal lookout and I say that as someone who likes him
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| 12:05 |
: The Cards are taking a calculated risk. What’s the upside? They overcome their cheapness, win some games, get some saves, normalcy, no more self-loathing. Downside… They suck publicly and collapse on themselves like a dying star. Why is this so hard? That’s what she said. Oh my god, what am I saying?
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| 12:06 |
: Kind of a vague question, but I think the cards will be fine, even if not sexy
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| 12:06 |
: I actually think the Segura trade was decent for the D-Backs. Segura is an OK SS, and he basically cost a back-end rotation guy, and some other low prospect. It’s a good trade for D-Backs if you think you are going for it. Agree?
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| 12:06 |
: Meh, Segura’s not that good.
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| 12:07 |
: Yeah, there’s a mitigating factor for his 2014 performance. But he wasn’t good in 2015 either.
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| 12:07 |
: Is there a particular type/profile of young position players that you think gives the system the greatest challenge? One type/profile that you’re consistently most confident in?
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| 12:07 |
: Bias is one of the easier things to iron out.
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| 12:07 |
: It just comes down to I have more faith in players wiht longer resumes
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| 12:08 |
: When will ZiPS will be up for all 30 teams and updated here http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=zips
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| 12:08 |
: Just like every year, when they are done.
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| 12:08 |
: Rangers OF is suspect other than Choo. Do they rely heavily on Gallo and Mazara to hit well in order to compete?
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| 12:09 |
: Hamilton’s clearly getting first stab at the position.
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| 12:09 |
: Are the Reds done? Do you think they get someone to take Phillips, or better yet get him to agree to go, or Bruce?
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| 12:09 |
: Phillips may be a done thing now. Don’t know why Bruce isn’t gone yet.
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| 12:09 |
: Truth is, Reds are a lousy organization these days.
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| 12:09 |
: Do you like or love George Springer this season? Correa got the hype last season (deservedly so), but it seems like Springer is on the cusp of a 30/30 campaign if he stays healthy.
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| 12:10 |
: I like him fine. I dont’ think Springer gets 30 stolen bases.
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| 12:10 |
: Pretend you’re the Rays GM. Which OF do you trade? What position are you looking to upgrade? What are you having for lunch?
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| 12:10 |
: I sort it out in the spring.
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| 12:10 |
: Chances Mike Napoli can actually boost the Tribe offense?
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| 12:10 |
: Minor
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| 12:10 |
: Is it me, or does it seem like there are more FA available heading into February than usual?
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| 12:11 |
: I don’t think so – the fringes and relievers tend to get signed later
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| 12:11 |
: Is the Cardinals gamble that Piscotty becomes the new Jason Heyward a good one to take?
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| 12:11 |
: It’s their best current choice.
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| 12:11 |
: ZIPS hates the A’s…..if ZIPS is right, should Beane start a rebuild (again)?
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| 12:11 |
: I think they should. Beane’s signings have been rather underwhelming.
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| 12:11 |
: Apparently the White Sox are “exploring” a trade for Andre Ethier. What would the White Sox have to give up to get him, and would it make more sense to just sign Fowler instead?
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| 12:12 |
: I can’t imagine much. Would be better to just sign Fowler, though.
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| 12:12 |
: Any changes to projections for Aaron Hill or Jean Segura because of the trade? Any boost for either?
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| 12:12 |
: Not really.
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| 12:12 |
: Do you do ZiPS for fictional rule 5 picks created by OOTP? I’m a hero and an inside joke.
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| 12:12 |
: Is it fair to say Addison Russell is a more useful as a *baseball player* than as a *fantasy baseball player*?
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| 12:12 |
: I think so.
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| 12:12 |
: What the hell do I do, Dan?
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| 12:13 |
: You are the president of the Toronto Blue Jays.
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| 12:13 |
: If AJ Reed lives up to the hype of being the best bat in Milb and wins the starting job in ST, would that make the Astros the favorite in the AL?
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| 12:13 |
: I think it well might – there really aren’t any excellent teams in the AL
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| 12:14 |
: What’s your favorite airport?
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| 12:14 |
: The arriving one.
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| 12:14 |
: The Wil Myers projections seem either to project him as an atrocious 1B or are still built on him as a CF. Curious which it is? It the back-of-the-napkin figuring I did right that the offense projected + league avg 1B defense would make him about a 3.5WAR player?
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| 12:15 |
: I haven’t changed him to 1B yet.
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| 12:15 |
: Any teams at this point that strike you as headed for a particularly hard fall if a few key injuries pop up?
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| 12:15 |
: Detroit
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| 12:15 |
: Prediction for where Gallardo and Fowler will end up? Baltimore makes a lot of sense for Fowler but not to give up the 14th pick in the draft…
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| 12:15 |
: Some of Fowler’s value is that he can at least fake CF. This isn’t that valuable to the O’s
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| 12:15 |
: As an O’s fan, I want no part of Galalrdo
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| 12:15 |
: Gallardo
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| 12:17 |
: We won’t know the answer for a few months but if Aaron Hill becomes a deadline commodity similar to Parra last year, the Segura trade has netted the Brewers 2 organization top 10 prospects. That begins to look like an excellent return, even before Chase Anderson is considered
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| 12:17 |
: While I like the trade, I highly doubt Aaron Hill becomes a deadline commodity.
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| 12:18 |
: He’s going to be a 34-year-old second baseman who has been absolutely horrible for two years.
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| 12:18 |
: Think Votto gets moved anytime soon?
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| 12:18 |
: No
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| 12:18 |
: Cardinals OF…..Holliday, Grichuk, Piscotty, Pham. I could see that group being pretty good, but I could also see it being pretty bad. What say you?
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| 12:18 |
: I think it’ll be a decent group.
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| 12:19 |
: Can the Orioles do anything to be one of the better AL East teams this year this late in the off season?
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| 12:19 |
: No.
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| 12:19 |
: Are you positive, negative or neutral on the Qualifying Offer system? Why?
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| 12:19 |
: Neutral. Owners have always insisted on *some* kind of compensation for free agent loss, going back to the start of free agency, and they’re likely to stick to it.
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| 12:19 |
: Yeah, QOs suck sometimes, but the Elias ratings were pretty awful.
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| 12:21 |
: Why isn’t David Freese an Indian yet? Seems like a perfect fit….
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| 12:21 |
: Frankly, I’d rather play Jose Ramirez at 3rd than Freese.
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| 12:21 |
: Now Freese is better than Urshela, but how many two WAR seasons does Freese have in his career? 2?
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| 12:22 |
: Well, 4 by FG, but just barely
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| 12:22 |
: (2 by BR, just checked)
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| 12:22 |
: Point is though, Freese just isn’t that good and the Indians would have to trade for him.
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| 12:23 |
: Wait, he’s a FA, duh
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| 12:23 |
: (sorry, I have a head cold, so I’m slow on the uptake today)
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| 12:23 |
: Still, meh.
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| 12:24 |
: (Completely forgot, since nobody’s talked about him this offseason, because, well, he’s not that good)
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| 12:24 |
: Do you expect AJ Pollock to have a repeat of last season?
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| 12:24 |
: Yes
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| 12:24 |
: D’Backs acquiring Segura show that they’re really regretting parting ways with Didi?
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| 12:24 |
: I don’t like to guess on subtexts.
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| 12:24 |
: They’re not acquiring a player out of regret, they’re acquiring a player they think will be better than the options.
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| 12:25 |
: Now, I think that the board state is worse with Segura than what they traded away, but they certainly didn’t do it out of some pining for Gregorius.
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| 12:25 |
: If they got something really awesome for Gregorius, they’d likely still want Segura.
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| 12:25 |
: Do you think there Are there handshake agreements that a player will take the opt out? This would make the Ian Kennedy signing make more since.
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| 12:26 |
: Nobody in baseball has ever kept a secret, so I doubt it.
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| 12:27 |
: The Blue Jays were *this close* to being reprimanded for the Clemens handshake agreement.
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| 12:28 |
: MLB does not like secret covenants.
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| 12:28 |
: What does a do-able Machado extension look like?
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| 12:29 |
: I don’t believe there’s any figure that would be acceptable to both parties.
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| 12:29 |
: Is it just me, or have position players been going for pennies relative to pitchers, if you take projected WAR seriously? Does anyone expect Mike Leake to be more valuable than Howie Kendrick over the next few seasons? Speaking of which, why on earth did Kendrick get less money than Daniel Murphy?
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| 12:29 |
: No, I don’t think so. I’ve been getting similar implied $/WAR value for hitters and pitchers.
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| 12:29 |
: It’s just that there were better pitchers than hitters available.
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| 12:30 |
: In Kendrick’s case, I think they misread the argument and Kendrick *is* older.
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| 12:30 |
: ZiPs seems to like AJ Reed (as do I), do you see him as a Super 2 deadline call-up, only in case of injury emergency call-up, or a September call-up this season?
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| 12:30 |
: I think if he crushes AAA and the Astros have a need, he’ll come up.
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| 12:30 |
: Any comparables as to how you think Miggy will age? Can we ever expect him to replicate his old numbers, or are we looking at maybe David Ortiz numbers (not a bad thing) from here on out?
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| 12:31 |
: Even players at his level get old in their 30s. David Ortiz aged unusually well.
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| 12:31 |
: Squinting at the Reds I see some green shoots, what’s their most pressing need to be a WC contender?
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| 12:31 |
: A time machine.
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| 12:31 |
: Are their plans to compare ZiPS with KATOH for all overlapping players from both systems?
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| 12:31 |
: No, I do my own work.
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| 12:31 |
: I don’t like using other people’s work in my work.
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| 12:31 |
: More likely to “break out” this year for the cubs Russell or Baez?
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| 12:32 |
: Baez, only because he has more flaws as a player now.
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| 12:32 |
: Star Wars is still in theaters…don’t people almost deserve to be spoiled at this point?
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| 12:32 |
: I said I wouldn’t talk about it until it was out of theaters.
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| 12:32 |
: Would you want any part of Latos as an O’s fan?
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| 12:32 |
: Not a good fit.
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| 12:32 |
: Fister was the best fit remaining and he’s gone already.
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| 12:32 |
: Who are the top organizations in baseball, in your opinion?
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| 12:33 |
: Cubs, Cardinals, Pirates, Dodgers, Rays, Astros
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| 12:33 |
: No particular order
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| 12:33 |
: With the Rockies going into full rebuild mode, can you see a deal where the Rox let go of Cargo for a bundle of SP candidates like Rob Kaminsky, Juan Hillman and perhaps a SS, Wakamatsu?
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| 12:34 |
: If a bundle is available for CarGo, the Rockies should have already packed his suitcases for him.
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| 12:34 |
: I don’t think the Rockies are going into full rebuild mode.
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| 12:34 |
: Everything they do now is an awkward extension of our “Let’s build a 73-win team now *and* a 73-win team later!”
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| 12:34 |
: their
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| 12:35 |
: They have some terrific prospects in the minors, but they’ve shown no inclination to guide their resources to when those players are at their best.
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| 12:35 |
: If MLB increased by 2 teams, would that impact ZiPS projections because of a drop of league quality or would that drop be so minor that you would have to do a major study to even see it?
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| 12:35 |
: Too minor.
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| 12:35 |
: How bad would A-Rod’s defense be if he were allowed to play 3B one or two times a week?
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| 12:35 |
: Pretty bad at this point, I imagine.
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| 12:35 |
: Matt Latos seems to make sense for a few teams, but mostly SD. WOuld Petco make his projections appear relatively useful?
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| 12:36 |
: Latos is a good fit for a rebuild-and-flip team. It’s harder to trick teams with park effects these days.
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| 12:36 |
: Do you figure Heyward or Fowler to be a better fit for CF over the next 3 seasons?
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| 12:36 |
: Heyward
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| 12:36 |
: Any chance that Scherzer could make the HOF? Or will he be a Hall of Very Good guy if his career continues apace?
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| 12:37 |
: Slam-dunks like Mussina and Schilling can’t get in. Scherzer has no chance without improvement by the voters.
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| 12:37 |
: Greater upside, Carlos Martinez or Carlos Rodon?
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| 12:37 |
: Rodon, but obviously lower floor too.
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| 12:37 |
: How much credence do you put in September call-up performance? Guys like Rodon and Eickhoff killed hitting and Mahtook and Trayce Thompson really shone. Is it nothing? Something?
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| 12:37 |
: It means as much as a month of performance means.
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| 12:38 |
: Odds that the Diamondbacks sign Kendrick after trading Hill?
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| 12:38 |
: Zero. He signed with LA.
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| 12:38 |
: Back to earlier TX OF question, do you not think DeShields keeps a starting job?
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| 12:38 |
: I think he keeps it for the moment.
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| 12:38 |
: Let’s say the cardinals are out of it near the deadline. Do you think they’d considered being sellers? And, if so, who has value that they would move?
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| 12:38 |
: Too many variables. Good organizations consider all the options and we don’t know what the options are at this point.
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| 12:39 |
: And good organizations don’t decided in February what they’re willing to do and not willing to do in July.
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| 12:39 |
: don’t decided?
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| 12:39 |
: Yeah, definitely under the weawther
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| 12:39 |
: weather
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| 12:39 |
: So, what rotation options are available for the poor Rockies, given that they are uninterested in Gallardo? DeLaRosa, Chatwood, Lylese are 1-2-3, who the heck can be 4-5 out there?
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| 12:39 |
: The Rockies should have zero interest in anybody in free agency.l
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| 12:40 |
: Bettis will be in the rotation.
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| 12:40 |
: And if they’re not aggressive with Gray, they need to be sorting through some of their question marks
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| 12:40 |
: What are the odds that the Yankees include both Harper and Machado in an ’18-’19 off-season spending spree?
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| 12:40 |
: I think none.
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| 12:41 |
: The Yankees have gotten curiously conservative in FA.
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| 12:42 |
: Did you watch the NHL all star game? Is there anything MLB can do to goose the format and make it the least bit interesting? Who would be MLB’s John Scott? My vote is Aaron Harang.
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| 12:42 |
: All-Star formats just aren’t all that interesting, period.
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| 12:42 |
: Stuff like skills competitions would be fun at least.
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| 12:42 |
: But All-Star things get less exciting when there’s already endless exposure and teams all play each other anyway
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| 12:43 |
: Can the Yankees contend this year? Make it back to the Wild Card, at least?
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| 12:43 |
: Thgey can contend.
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| 12:43 |
: What would be your QO fix? Give the team that loses the FA a pick while not docking one from the signing team?
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| 12:43 |
: Haven’t given it much thought. I’m not sure that the current system is really all that bad when it comes down to it.
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| 12:44 |
: What are the chances of Lincecum being part of a starting rotation this year? In MLB, that is.
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| 12:44 |
: 2%
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| 12:44 |
: I’ve seen a number of projections/analyses that think Logan Forsythe can sustain last year’s production which strikes me as odd given his past. Where are you on him?
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| 12:44 |
: Meh-plus
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| 12:44 |
: Is there a better baseball name than Urban Shocker?
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| 12:44 |
: Silver King?
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| 12:44 |
: With changes coming to Marlins Park, do you think that’ll bode well for an uptick in Christian Yelich’s home run total this season, or does he just put the ball on the ground too often to really matter?
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| 12:45 |
: He’s got mostly a line-drive swing. I think he’d need to change it up a little to really hit a lot of homers
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| 12:45 |
: Do you think this is the year that Stephen Strasburg puts it all together and competes for a Cy Young? After getting the discomfort out of the way last season, he was lights out. Can he do it for a full season? If so, he’ll make a TON of money for himself.
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| 12:45 |
: He’s certainly in the mix, but he’s in a league in which Clayton Kershaw plays.
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| 12:45 |
: Do you think Dave Stewart sits in his office and thinks whats the most random thing I can do today and then proceeds to attempt to do it? Being a Dback beat reporter has to be constantly either depressing or entertaining.
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| 12:46 |
: I don’t think he believes he’s doing random things.
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| 12:46 |
: The problem with the Segura trade, is that he’s no better than Chris Owings who is already on the roster. Chase Anderson isn’t that great, but having SP depth is really important when you’re trying to contend.
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| 12:46 |
: I think he’s a little better than Owings.
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| 12:46 |
: Well, maybe Lil Stoner or The Only Nolan are better baseball names
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| 12:47 |
: Why does no one talk about the lack of L handed pitching in the AL east, do to all the righties I will face I will throw down .290 20 90 as my floor.
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| 12:47 |
: .290 as a *floor* for a guy who has a .300 career BA while being a Rockie?
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| 12:47 |
: Rocky?
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| 12:47 |
: (Never did have an official singular AFAICT)
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| 12:49 |
: And going that insane over pitcher mix is crazy
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| 12:50 |
: I don’t think the 12 PA he has in his career against Kershaw were suppressing his overall numbers.
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| 12:50 |
: Let’s say Heyward is a negative defender in CF with Schwarber being awful in left. How much of an impact will the lack of outfield defense hurt the Cubs?
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| 12:50 |
: Well, they’ll allow additional runs.
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| 12:50 |
: Ahmed both outhits and outfields Segura….that trade makes 0 sense for the D’Backs.
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| 12:51 |
: I don’t think in the end it’s Ahmed that loses playing time.
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| 12:52 |
: It is completely against the interests of a fringe QO player to be cool with having a QO put on him as evidence by a half dozen players who lost their value.
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| 12:52 |
: Any compensation system, by its very nature, is going to work against somebody’s interests.
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| 12:52 |
: Fact is, in this system, it at least forces teams to put their money where their mouth is. The QO is better than the arbitration acceptance in previous sytem.
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| 12:53 |
: Wily Peralta throws a high volume of high velocity fastballs yielding a high percentage of groundballs & Colorado could use a starter. How is 3B prospect Ryan McMahon + pieces on either side as needed?
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| 12:53 |
: Again, WHY
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| 12:54 |
: The Rockies current needs are essentially irrelevant.
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| 12:54 |
: Maybe Mike Leake is underrated. He’s a good innings eating pitcher who can hit better than some shortstops and catchers out there. He’s athletic, fields his position. Maybe I like Mike Leake too much, but I thought he was a great sign for the Cardinals, and I’m not even a Cards fan.
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| 12:55 |
: No, I think he’s rated at this point.
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| 12:55 |
: He’s an adequate pitcher with little upside, fairly safe, and got a contract exactly in line with his projections.
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| 12:55 |
: TO me, that’s rated.
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| 12:55 |
: As someone who saw AJ Reed play at Kentucky, his only real weakness as a hitter is against pitchers that consistently get the ball in on his hands. He’s going to mash mistakes and probably be like Rizzo and get beaned a lot.
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| 12:56 |
: Szym just basically said he does better work than other people. Gotta admire the acknowledgement of the truth.
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| 12:56 |
: Wait, what specifically did I say?
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| 12:56 |
: Don’t remember.
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| 12:56 |
: But yeah, I believe I do good work.
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| 12:56 |
: Oh, the using other people’s work?
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| 12:57 |
: I’m not saying I’m better than KATOH, but I believe in doing my own work, not just using that of others.
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| 12:57 |
: I will always have access to and have the legal right to use, by default, products of my own research.
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| 12:57 |
: How much you think Latos gets? 2/$12?
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| 12:58 |
: 1/8?
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| 12:58 |
: One possible reason for the discrepancy between position player and pitcher contracts this winter: teams are relatively more confident in their ability to identify and develop hitters than they used to be, while pitchers still have a huge (and seemingly inescapable) risk factor in terms of injury. Basically: your cost of, and level of confidence in, developing a 2-WAR position player is now much lower/higher than doing the same for a pitcher.
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| 12:58 |
: Can Albert hit 40 dingers again? Will he ever be a 300 hitter again?
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| 12:58 |
: Yes, no.
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| 12:58 |
: Which baseball player would make the worst president of the USA?
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| 12:58 |
: Papelbon?
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| 12:58 |
: If the NL adopts a DH, there’s nothing stopping the league from a semi-radical division realignment. Moving Houston and Texas into the same division seems to have done well for both teams, why not more of that, (especially if 2 expansion teams requires a realignment anyway). How about something like this:
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| 12:59 |
: I read these vertically because I’m stupid and didn’t see lines.
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| 12:59 |
: Latos seems like a good Pirates reclamation project in the mold of AJ Burnett, no?
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| 12:59 |
: Would be fun.
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| 12:59 |
: Does Kershaw pass the HOF Bus test yet?
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| 12:59 |
: Mine at least.
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| 12:59 |
: Would a sixth finger help or hinder a pitcher?
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| 12:59 |
: Probably neither.
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| 12:59 |
: Alfonseca had an extra finger. And Wickman had fewer.
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| 1:00 |
: OK, not really fewer, but he was missing part of a finger.
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| 1:01 |
: Does Baltimore benefit from being in the AL East? Does the extra home attendance and ticket money they get from playing Boston and NYY outweigh having to play in a division with two of the three biggest spending teams?
|
| 1:01 |
: I think they benefit from an exposure standpoint, but not sure if it offsets the issue
|
| 1:01 |
: Do you think any NL clubs would gamble on the free agent market 1-2 years in advance knowing the DH might soon become a thing?
|
| 1:01 |
: No
|
| 1:01 |
: Any chance Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion are both blue Jays in 2017?
|
| 1:02 |
: Yes
|
| 1:02 |
: what are the chances that Kennedy will bounce back this year for the Royals?
|
| 1:02 |
: Bounce “back?”
|
| 1:02 |
: But he could be OK because of Royals dark magicks.
|
| 1:02 |
: Re the MLB Allstar game: change it similar to NHL but a big-bat whiffle ball tourney. Ghost runners and all
|
| 1:02 |
: February’s the worst off-season month, right?
|
| 1:02 |
: Yes
|
| 1:03 |
: Who is baseball’s Soda Popinski?
|
| 1:03 |
: Vuckovich?
|
| 1:03 |
: I’m not convinced the cost of having Betts switch positions is less than the added value of having Bradley play center, instead of just having Betts stay in one position and Bradley and Young platoon the other. Am I needlessly worrying? We RS fans worry a lot, you know.
|
| 1:03 |
: I think you’re overthinking the issue.
|
| 1:03 |
: Pretzels Getzein got robbed in the CFBBQ name bracket. Best baseball name of all time!
|
| 1:04 |
: What are the pros/cons having a live cobra batting cleanup?
|
| 1:04 |
: Lots of walks. But might bite your stars.
|
| 1:04 |
: Looking at projections, it’s pretty clear that Harper deserves to get (at least) $40 million aav on a long term deal as a free agent. This would price out nearly every team though, and seems impossible for him to get… Do you think this seems to suggest a saturation, of sorts, on the high end free agent market?
|
| 1:04 |
: I’m not sure it prices out every team
|
| 1:05 |
: Is Dave Stewart the way he is because he hung out with the eccentric Annie Lennox for so many years, when they were in the Eurythmics?
|
| 1:05 |
: Dave Stewart probably thinks Donnie Darko is a good movie.
|
| 1:05 |
: Dodgers have 4 lefties
|
| 1:07 |
: Only one of whom is good enough that facing him enough could possibly have a real effect on the bottom line.
|
| 1:07 |
: And I fail to see how Kazmir being a Dodger in 2016 or his 3 career plate appearances against Ryu could have been deflating his career statistics through 2015.
|
| 1:08 |
: (Dickerson for those not paying attention)
|
| 1:08 |
: Warren or Hendricks for the final rotation spot in Chicago? Hendricks has options.
|
| 1:08 |
: I think Warren starts off in the pen.
|
| 1:08 |
: If Hamilton struggles, who gets called up first, Mazara or Gallo?
|
| 1:08 |
: Depends how they’re playing at the time.
|
| 1:09 |
: Terry Francona said the other day that the Indians have another trick up their sleeve. Its likely it’ll either be a David Freese or Juan Uribe signing. Who do you personally prefer?
|
| 1:09 |
: Uribe.
|
| 1:09 |
: Segura was once a highly regarded prospect and is still only 25. Good minor league numbers. Isn’t there some opportunity, however unlikely, for him to be a better bounceback kind of guy than a typical player?
|
| 1:10 |
: There is some, of course. If there wasn’t, I’d be panning the trade instead of just calling it meh.
|
| 1:10 |
: Better Dave with a first-name last name: Dave Stewart or Dave Thomas?
|
| 1:10 |
: Thomas. Canadian humor *and* Wendy’s.
|
| 1:10 |
: If you suddenly got the ability to accurately predict the future in baseball only (IE can’t predict lotto numbers or stocks or what have you), would you adjust ZiPS based on what you know the season outcome will be? Or just retire from ZiPS to become a full time gambler?
|
| 1:10 |
: I would still release ZiPS, but only after I’ve placed all my bets!
|
| 1:12 |
: OK, we’re after 1, so going to the Lightning Round.
|
| 1:12 |
: The rules are simple: I must answer every question, so long as it is off-topic and not part of the denoted exceptions (too personal, work-related)
|
| 1:12 |
: This will continue until I catch up or get bored.
|
| 1:12 |
: And given how I feel today, possibly fall asleep mid question.
|
| 1:13 |
: Are you pumped for the Iowa Caucuses?
|
| 1:13 |
: No.
|
| 1:13 |
: Have you watched The Expanse? Pretty good for a sci-fi show. Really good for a Sy-Fy show.
|
| 1:13 |
: I have not.
|
| 1:13 |
: You ever play board/card games like Settlers of Catan, suburbia or Smash Up?
|
| 1:13 |
: Catan, but not the others.
|
| 1:13 |
: I read that Blizzard makes more money from Hearthstone now than WoW; doesn’t that seem nuts?
|
| 1:13 |
: Less infrastructure for a digital card game than a vast persistent world.
|
| 1:13 |
: It doesn’t surprise me at all.
|
| 1:14 |
: Now, I couldn’t worm dollar amounts out of Blizzard, but I definitely think HS is one of their big money soruces right now.
|
| 1:14 |
: Update on Cat’s please. Mostly Galileo
|
| 1:15 |
: Pandora’s on my office couch asleep. Galileo was sitting on my stomach for most of the chat but left about 10 minutes ago. Don’t know what Reagan and Mercutio are doing, but I did hear some distant fighting sounds upstairs about half an hour ago.
|
| 1:15 |
: What is the libertarian approach to solving collective action problems?
|
| 1:15 |
: Depends on the issue.
|
| 1:15 |
: What is your least favorite rule at the swimming pool?
|
| 1:15 |
: No running. If I want to risk myself by running, that’s my business.
|
| 1:15 |
: I made blueberry pancakes for breakfast. On a scale of 1-10, 1 being Cistuli at your breakfast table and 10 being red velvet oreos, how jealous are you?
|
| 1:16 |
: 5? After pancake 1, enjoyment drops off quickly.
|
| 1:16 |
: What’s the biggest dog you’ve ever seen?
|
| 1:16 |
: Clifford
|
| 1:16 |
: Are you concerned about unintended consequences of a mass mosquito-sterilization effort?
|
| 1:16 |
: Mildly concerned. As long as they’re careful and do the research, not overly so.
|
| 1:16 |
: Dan, the French statesman Talleyrand once said he was more afraid of ’50 sheep led by a single lion that 50 lions led by a single sheep.” Do you agree?
|
| 1:16 |
: Yes
|
| 1:16 |
: Did you play Grand Theft Auto 5? If so, which main protagonist is your favorite?
|
| 1:16 |
: Trevor of course, simply because he’s insane.
|
| 1:16 |
: Plus the Canada jokes.
|
| 1:16 |
: When is the best time to announce to your family that you like Coldplay?
|
| 1:17 |
: On your deathbed so they don’t blame you too much?
|
| 1:17 |
: I actually don’t hate Coldplay, but I’m not a fan either. Kinda meh for me.
|
| 1:17 |
: Unfortunately Trump or Cruz will win the Iowa caucus tonight. There isn’t a question here, only sadness.
|
| 1:17 |
: What food item sounds awesome, but generally disappoints you?
|
| 1:17 |
: For some reason, hot dogs always tempt me and them I’m sorry I ate a hot dog.
|
| 1:18 |
: Studded leather used to symbolize tough guys in the 80s (bikers, Judas Priest, Ax & Smash from Demolition), now….not so much.
|
| 1:18 |
: Do the benefits of switching to the Metric system outweigh the hassle of the conversion?
|
| 1:18 |
: NO
|
| 1:18 |
: John Fogerty got sued for plagiarizing himself. I could see Carson Cistulli doing that to you.
|
| 1:18 |
: Well, yeah, if I sign away a specific right, of course.
|
| 1:18 |
: Dumping a basket of mousetraps on your drinking buddies — hilarious or cruel?
|
| 1:18 |
: Both
|
| 1:18 |
: What do you hate most about cistulli?
|
| 1:18 |
: His existence surely.
|
| 1:18 |
: What conspiracy theory do you think is totally legit?
|
| 1:19 |
: Well, the conspiracy theory that the government had been covering up some unethical behavior in the Tuskegee syphilis experiment did turn out to be absolutely true.
|
| 1:19 |
: PSA: Thor would kick Superman’s ass.
|
| 1:19 |
: are you going to try Soylent?
|
| 1:19 |
: I might, actually.
|
| 1:19 |
: Is the clear and present danger of live cobras being used as clean-up hitters why MLB is moving to robot umpires?
|
| 1:20 |
: I’d call that a plus sometimes.
|
| 1:20 |
: What drink pairs well with clams casino?
|
| 1:20 |
: I’m not a good pairing guy. Whatever you like.
|
| 1:20 |
: I think it’s safe to assume that if a woodchuck could chuck wood, then a woodchuck would chuck as much wood as a woodchuck could chuck, assuming, of course that woodchucks could chuck wood. Agree?
|
| 1:20 |
: As long as we’re talking the woodchuck in question and not the maximum a woodchuck chuck (like the recordholder) then yes
|
| 1:21 |
: But if the world record holder, Chuck Woody, can chuck 8, it would be unfair for an average woodchuck, say Chucky Chebbers, to chuck more than his customary 5
|
| 1:21 |
: Do you watch any anime and if so, what do you watch?
|
| 1:21 |
: I do not.
|
| 1:21 |
: Regardless of how you feel about Bernie Sanders, or politics in general, you have to admit, Feel The Bern is a pretty great slogan.
|
| 1:22 |
: It is a good slogan
|
| 1:22 |
: If you had to amputate an appendage, which one would it be?
|
| 1:22 |
: Foot
|
| 1:22 |
: Or leg
|
| 1:22 |
: if it can’t just be the foot
|
| 1:22 |
: Artificial arm not good for playing piano, video games, or typing quickly.
|
| 1:22 |
: what are your favorite horror movies?
|
| 1:22 |
: Not really into the genre
|
| 1:23 |
: Corey feldman or corey haim?
|
| 1:23 |
: Feldman
|
| 1:23 |
: I heard snow is expected in Iowa tonight. Safe to assume Trump is behind this?
|
| 1:23 |
: Yes
|
| 1:23 |
: Catchers gone on to be managers or so the story goes. What position goes on to be life insurance salesmen?
|
| 1:23 |
: Spot starters?
|
| 1:24 |
: Can you recommend any anti-virus, anti-malware software?
|
| 1:24 |
: avast or avira
|
| 1:24 |
: malwarebytes for the malware
|
| 1:24 |
: A combination of seasonal depression and “sunday night syndrome” caused me to become very distraught thinking about if my cat gets lonely, what do you think dan? Do cats get lonely?
|
| 1:24 |
: I think eventually they do, but longer for a cat than a person
|
| 1:24 |
: why did Breaking Bad’s quality decline so quickly? It reminds me of Spiderman 3
|
| 1:25 |
: Not sure, I didn’t have any issues
|
| 1:25 |
: Most excited for Deadpool, Batman vs. Superman, Civil War, X-Men, or Suicide Squad? Which will be the best?
|
| 1:25 |
: Suicide Squad
|
| 1:25 |
: A libertarian has a cat named Reagan? You do know what he did to military spending, right?
|
| 1:25 |
: She’s named Reagan because I got her the day Reagan died.
|
| 1:26 |
: Galileo also got star distances wrong, but naming a cat Galileo didn’t mean I agreed with that.
|
| 1:26 |
: Best fast food chicken: KFC, Popeyes, other?
|
| 1:26 |
: Don’t like fast food chicken and I almost never eat fast food anyway
|
| 1:27 |
: Have you ever considered how much personal happiness and job satisfaction the guys who dress up like the Statue of Liberty for tax season get from their work?
|
| 1:27 |
: I have not really thought of it.
|
| 1:27 |
: Are you laying down for this chat? I can’t imagine a cat laying on your stomach, even if you’re extremely rotund.
|
| 1:27 |
: My office chair is a recliner, so I am reclined.
|
| 1:27 |
: I am also quite rotund.
|
| 1:28 |
: Though it depends on what you mean by extremely rotund.
|
| 1:28 |
: You’d look at me and think “fat guy” but I’m a one airline seat/can get pants from regular store type of fat guy.
|
| 1:28 |
: Do you think it’s possible that there will ever be another decent Alien movie?
|
| 1:29 |
: Possible, yes. Likely, no.
|
| 1:29 |
: What should I eat for lunch?
|
| 1:29 |
: Sandwich
|
| 1:29 |
: What dinner is too much effort to cook for the reward of the deliciousness?
|
| 1:29 |
: A whole duck
|
| 1:29 |
: Any chance Chris Christie becomes relevant in this election?
|
| 1:29 |
: Not really
|
| 1:30 |
: What is one thing everyone should try?
|
| 1:30 |
: Breathing
|
| 1:30 |
: Super Bowl pick?
|
| 1:30 |
: Panthers
|
| 1:30 |
: Fill in the inequality: things Dan rates as “meh” _____ things Dan doesn’t rate as “meh”
|
| 1:30 |
: !=
|
| 1:30 |
: If there was a Fangraphs writers Royal Rumble, discuss the likely outcomes.
|
| 1:30 |
: Carson would have brass knuckles
|
| 1:30 |
: Did you realize that the Choco Taco is in no way Hispanic in origin!?!?
|
| 1:30 |
: Yes
|
| 1:30 |
: have you ever been to a Grand Prix?
|
| 1:30 |
: No, but I did have a game Grand Prix for atari 2600
|
| 1:31 |
: Which I called Grand Pricks. Hey, I was 4 and was corrected.
|
| 1:31 |
: what is the cheapest popular Hearthstone deck that frustrates you the most?
|
| 1:31 |
: Face hunter
|
| 1:31 |
: Susan Sarandon’s cleavage, weird but I couldn’t help looking.
|
| 1:31 |
: What about robot cobras?
|
| 1:31 |
: what are clams casino?
|
| 1:32 |
: essentially baked clams with bacon and other stuff
|
| 1:32 |
: What’s your preferred weapon in a zombie apocalypse?
|
| 1:32 |
: Shotgun.
|
| 1:32 |
: Good stopping power and easy to maintain.
|
| 1:32 |
: Would Dave Stewart mistakenly use a live cobra as a Diamondback mascot? How many prospects would he trade for a live cobra?
|
| 1:33 |
: He could, it is a snake after all
|
| 1:33 |
: What is the nearest object to you that could be used as a falcon deterrent?
|
| 1:33 |
: Galileo’s a pretty big cat. There’s a golf club not too far from me.
|
| 1:33 |
: What sort of deck would Trump play in Hearthstone?
|
| 1:33 |
: Oh, he’d play face hunter
|
| 1:33 |
: But all gold cards.
|
| 1:33 |
: which movie are you most looking forward to?
|
| 1:34 |
: next Star Wars
|
| 1:34 |
: How much wood would a woodchuck chuck if the government would stop telling him how much wood he could chuck?
|
| 1:34 |
: Depends how vigorous the regulatory enforcement is.
|
| 1:34 |
: Have you ever broken a bone?
|
| 1:34 |
: No, I’ve torn tissue though, but never broken a bone.
|
| 1:34 |
: if you had the ability to suddenly be able to speak/write/read/understand a single language, what wouldit be?
|
| 1:34 |
: Chinese.
|
| 1:34 |
: If all current presidential candidates went at it Electoral Brawlege style, who’s the favorite?
|
| 1:35 |
: O’Malley seems to be in pretty good shape
|
| 1:35 |
: Is it ironic that Bernie Sanders and syphilis have the same slogan?
|
| 1:35 |
: Syphilis has a slogan?
|
| 1:35 |
: Corey Feldman or Scott Feldman?
|
| 1:35 |
: Corey works cheaper.
|
| 1:35 |
: IPA’s are overrated from a production standpoint, anyone can make one taste good. Pilsners are loathed and hard to make. Yet beer connoisseurs rate IPA’s higher. WTF? Stop the madness!!!
|
| 1:35 |
: There’s no points for effort.
|
| 1:36 |
: More WAR this year: Ianetta or Zunino?
|
| 1:36 |
: Iannetta
|
| 1:36 |
: Kyle Kendrick lives nearby. Is there anything you would like me to yell at him from the safety of a car?
|
| 1:36 |
: No.
|
| 1:36 |
: Are the Dodgers going to load up AAA with middle infielders or should they move someone like Alex Guerrero for a reliever with good velo?
|
| 1:36 |
: Guerrero has to agree to a demotion.
|
| 1:36 |
: How late in the summer will it be before you talk yourself into voting for Trump in the general election?
|
| 1:36 |
: I don’t want to even think about that.
|
| 1:36 |
: Is that Dyson/Orlando platoon gonna work?
|
| 1:37 |
: I think the Orlando side will be disappointing.
|
| 1:37 |
: I thought spot/5th starters went on to be academics.
|
| 1:37 |
: Isn’t Libertarian code for free-loader?
|
| 1:37 |
: You can believe naything you want
|
| 1:37 |
: Do you watch “The Red Green Show”? “If the women don’t find you handsome, they should at least find you handy.”
|
| 1:37 |
: I do not
|
| 1:37 |
: year we see a libertarian elected president?
|
| 1:38 |
: Never. Libertarians don’t promise you a damn thing.
|
| 1:38 |
: Re: Reagan’s death: wasn’t it kind of gross how they kept the flags at half mast for like a month? Doesn’t matter how great you were, you get one or two days max. I feel irrationally strongly about this.
|
| 1:38 |
: It’s standard policy for presidential deaths.
|
| 1:38 |
: It’s just flag position, it’s not like you have to bring goat sacrifices to Reagan’s Altar or anything.
|
| 1:39 |
: And every president gets it. An ornamental thing not worth getting hot and bothered about
|
| 1:39 |
: Baseball is a copy-cat league/sport. Who is the next candidate for living out of one’s car? My money’s on Arquimedes Caminero.
|
| 1:39 |
: Don’t make me bring back my Caminero! verses
|
| 1:39 |
: Stronger theory: “flat earth” or “Rubio is the front runner because Trump/Cruz will inevitably fade?”
|
| 1:39 |
: Flat earth, depressingly so.
|
| 1:39 |
: Paella
|
| 1:39 |
: Sure
|
| 1:39 |
: Scarier epidemic: Zika or ebola?
|
| 1:40 |
: Probably Ebola just from how well it klls.
|
| 1:40 |
: Will Coldplay be the best Super Bowl show EVER?
|
| 1:40 |
: No.,
|
| 1:40 |
: I’m checking out Muse tonight. What’s an appropriate beer to enjoy for a big arena rock show?
|
| 1:40 |
: Again, whatever you enjoyu.
|
| 1:40 |
: If I read you right, you are praising part of a flawed public personality in naming your pets. Which opens up the possibility of most humans and almost certainly all politicians. Right?
|
| 1:40 |
: There is nobody perfect to name a cat after, except Mike Trout.
|
| 1:40 |
: And Trout is a weird name for a cat.
|
| 1:40 |
: Clams casino, because mostly you don’t like clams. A little like oysters rockefeller.
|
| 1:41 |
: I prefer oyster bars.
|
| 1:41 |
: Worse Chris Christie argument for why he should be predisent – that we was a federal prosecutor during 9/11 or the one where he just says “9/11”?
|
| 1:41 |
: Never lie about something that is directly disprovable if you can avoid it.
|
| 1:41 |
: Which player’s battle cry should be “It’s clobberin’ time!”
|
| 1:41 |
: Schwarber
|
| 1:41 |
: Funnier unlikely late summer event: Phillies winning NL East or brokered GOP convention?
|
| 1:41 |
: Phillies would be funnier.
|
| 1:42 |
: Is it true Dave Stewart is now contemplating trading for the fiercest live cobra of all time Billy Zabka?
|
| 1:42 |
: Haven’t you seen the video? Johnny was the flawed protagonist.
|
| 1:42 |
: What WWE taunt should be adopted by Papelbon
|
| 1:42 |
: Great Muta
|
| 1:43 |
: Is the reason that you’d inherit a knowledge of Chinese that it’s pretty embarassing when you have to order by number?
|
| 1:43 |
: I’d like to read a lot of the histories that aren’t fully translated into English.
|
| 1:44 |
: Most of the Twenty-Four Histories haven’t been translated into English.
|
| 1:44 |
: Was the tissue you tore from a box of Kleenex?
|
| 1:44 |
: No, ligament and a meniscus
|
| 1:44 |
: You know what’s funny about watching The Sandlot, or any 80s movie? The “fat kid” or “fat guy” looks downright slender compared to today.
|
| 1:44 |
: Favorite John Candy movie?
|
| 1:44 |
: P, T, A
|
| 1:45 |
: Why has no Presidential candidate brought up how like eight teams are blacked out on MLB.TV in Iowa? Niche issue but hardcore fans would be swayed. Works in early-voting Nevada too!
|
| 1:45 |
: Can’t do much.
|
| 1:45 |
: Dan, Libertarians promise you freedom from big intrusive government – that is worth a whole lot more than many think – unfortunately…
|
| 1:45 |
: But it’ s not a sexy promise for an election.
|
| 1:45 |
: The goat sacrifices at Reagan’s Altar are made to keep the aliens from stealing our children. I thought that was clear.
|
| 1:45 |
: Your favorite libertarian candidate gets elected president BUT Cistulli is his running mate. You get 3 years before your president dies in office but then 1 year of rule under cistulli. Do you vote for your candidate?
|
| 1:45 |
: I’ll take the 3 years. Will give me time to abduct Cistulli and imprison him in an oubliette.
|
| 1:45 |
: Cactus or Armadillo? Show your work.
|
| 1:45 |
: Cactus. because it makes liquor.
|
| 1:46 |
: I have one week left to get my wife to come around to the name Barnold. I need a sure-fire argument. Any suggestons?
|
| 1:46 |
: Think of a worse name and then come down *to* Barnold
|
| 1:47 |
: Hollow earth – your thoughts?
|
| 1:47 |
: No. The gravity would be off then.
|
| 1:47 |
: Chinese isn’t a language. Mandarin or Cantonese?
|
| 1:47 |
: Fair point.
|
| 1:49 |
: Let’s just say Classical Chinese then.
|
| 1:49 |
: The only time I had clams casino was in the Providence, RI airport. I heard my name on the loudspeaker, so I chugged my Guiness and ran to the gate. I felt pretty awful.
|
| 1:49 |
: What would be the name of your running crew?
|
| 1:49 |
: The Additional Pylons
|
| 1:49 |
: Do you consider the North Korean government to be left-wing or right-wing?
|
| 1:49 |
: I don’t care for left-right specturm.
|
| 1:49 |
: Who does Triple H defend the title against at ‘Mania?
|
| 1:50 |
: I assumed Roman Reigns
|
| 1:50 |
: What is “Erasmo” short for?
|
| 1:50 |
: Thought it was just a form of Erasmus
|
| 1:50 |
: If you could remove one current MLB player from this world (I’m thinking you’d ensure that they don’t follow the same path in time for this multi-verse, thus elimiinating them from the world around you while not harming them directly. so you can not feel bad about agressing an innocent party) who would it be?
|
| 1:50 |
: Trout. He’s too good for MLB.
|
| 1:50 |
: Why is RotoLando naming his wife?
|
| 1:51 |
: Something particular about the 2011 ZiPS? Was looking for them last night and noticed that I could find both 2010 and 2012, but for some reason not 2011 anywhere. DMB had them for sale ($14.99) but Baseball Projection Project has them missing.
|
| 1:51 |
: Not sure honestly. I don’t remember what year, though, DMB started selling them.
|
| 1:51 |
: I see you have read “The Art of the Deal” = start with awful names – settle for Barnold…
|
| 1:51 |
: Armadillo liquor would be very interesting, at least…
|
| 1:51 |
: Ewoks, are you okay with them? Yub Nub or that weird world music tune?
|
| 1:51 |
: Ewoks should be turned into food
|
| 1:51 |
: Korean government: flightless, like the dodo. Solves the chirality problem with wings.
|
| 1:51 |
: Okay, if the extra finger doesn’t help, what if you had a flipper? Your whole arm would be like a jai alai cesta
|
| 1:51 |
: Would be bad for baseball.
|
| 1:51 |
: Push “Bartholomew Arnold”, then call him BARNOLD
|
| 1:51 |
: AND END
|
| 1:51 |
: THAT IS ALL
|
| 1:52 |
: You can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter.
|
| 1:52 |
: In the hopper I have a piece talking about the White Sox and the remaining free agency options and another one in which I sat down with Daniel Negreanu to talk some Hearthstone.
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| 1:53 |
: The rest is silence.
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| 1:53 |
: At least once the end chat button kicks in.
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| 1:53 |
: It takes 30 seconds for it to end.
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| 1:53 |
: Can you name the Kardashians.
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| 1:53 |
: I don’t think I have the authority.
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| 1:53 |
: EVERYBODY CNA GO HOME NOW
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| 1:53 |
: TELL YOUR BOSS SZYMBORSKI SAID IT WAS OK
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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
“Dan Szymborski: Slam-dunks like Mussina and Schilling can’t get in. Scherzer has no chance without improvement by the voters.”
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=3137,73,837&wg=2
Seems like he is presently makign a case that he’s roughly in the middle of those two… and feel free to add Tom Glavine to that graph.