Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 2/2/15

Dan Szymborski: Whew, just barely made it!

Dan Szymborski: Stupid post-Super Bowl oversleeping.

Comment From Dan
It’s actually still a dream.

Dan Szymborski: I’d make a joke that I’m posting naked, but I don’t want to give you guys nightmares.

Comment From Mike T
Snowing and sleeting here… need baseball to get here soon!

Dan Szymborski: I get post-sports affective disorder between football and spring training.

Comment From RotoLando
How about that sports event!

Dan Szymborski: I totally called that the dancing shark would be the big star. When the dancing sharks came on the screen I said instantly to my sister: internet’s going to love that.

Comment From Sirras One
Hi Dan!

Dan Szymborski: Yo

Comment From Bob Loblaw
Thoughts on Jose Altuve in 2015? Most people expect him to regress, but to what extent? What kind of AVG and SB output do you envision?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS says .310 BA as mean and 43 SB. That’s a projection that I won’t quibble with.

Comment From Sirras One
Which signing made this offseason will look the worst come the end of the deal?

Dan Szymborski: Markakis, Santana, Sandoval, Cuddyer, anything the Royals do.

Comment From That Sim-League Guy
Is Jesse Crain (NRI with the White Sox) going to get a projection?

Dan Szymborski: I’m sure he will

Dan Szymborski: I just forgot to stick him in with the Astros

Comment From HappyFunBall
What’s the baseball equivalent of how the Super Bowl ended last night?

Dan Szymborski: Disco Demolition Night?

Dan Szymborski: If we’re talking the penalties.

Dan Szymborski: If the pass, that’s more something the Tigers do.

Comment From Richard
Refsnyder or Devon Travis : Who gets more AB’s this season?

Dan Szymborski: Refsnyder

Comment From Walt
Casey Janssens Zips w/ Nationals?

Dan Szymborski: There will be one. I’l tweet it when I get a chance (working on other stuff right now)

Comment From Harry Porter and the Voldemalts
How many catchers do the Braves need?

Dan Szymborski: All the bacon and eggs you have.

Comment From Vic
$5 bump per year. NL Only 12 team league 5 x 5. Trade an $8 Billy Hamilton for an $8 Gerritt Cole and an $18 Bryce Harper?

Dan Szymborski: I would. Too much value there even with the SBs.

Dan Szymborski: The Reds are going to kinda suck – Running Billy’s not going to be all that exciting even in runs.

Comment From baltic wolf
Dan: I get PSAD too. Cured by watching Champions League soccer.

Dan Szymborski: Soccer isnt’ really my cup of tea.

Comment From Katy Perry is a Satanic witch
Why does Zips love Peter O’Brien so much? is the park?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure projecting a guy’s peak at 1.6 WAR is really love.

Comment From Dan
The only cure, is more ZIPS, and sunlight.

Comment From Snid
Why would any team sign Andrew Jones? He is what he is . Wouldn

Dan Szymborski: Well, a competitive team trying to add a pinch-hitter doesn’t have a lot of options left inthis market

Comment From Tony G.
What do you think of young pitchers like Odorizzi and McHugh in 2015? Do they take the next step forward?

Dan Szymborski: Step forward? I’d be overwhelming happy if McHugh didn’t regress somewhat.

Dan Szymborski: Odorizzi’s 2014 is about where I’d guess he’d be

Comment From rangersfan
If profar were ranked as a prospect, where would he rank relative to correa, russel, seager, crawford and lindor?

Dan Szymborski: Lower, simply because there’s a lot of new uncertainty around him last 2 years

Comment From Joc Pedersen
Do you think ZiPS was kinda harsh on my BA/OBP projections? I’m not feeling slighted or anything–PCL, I get it–but even with the strikeouts, I’m going to do a little better than your system predicts in those areas…think I’m nuts?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is projecting 3.3 WAR and a 109 OPS+ from Joc. Dont’ be greedy. Have you seen how German fairy tales end?

Comment From Joe
With the Reds window closed/closing, how would you turn the franchise around to make them competitive in 2-ish years? (if that is possible)

Dan Szymborski: Realistically? I don’t think that’s possible without a lot of good fortune.

Dan Szymborski: They won’t invest much more in the team financially and they don’t have enough to trade.

Dan Szymborski: The Reds being competitive is essentially patching up holes and hoping they get lucky.

Comment From RotoLando
Wait….you saw those dancing sharks too?

Dan Szymborski: I think. As noted, I may be dreaming.

Comment From mtsw
Dave Cameron’s idea about only allowing 4 pitchers per game seems extreme. How about instead, saying any pitcher after the 4th gets zero warm up pitches? It’s still a meaningful penalty for using too many pitchers but isn’t nearly as extreme. Combine with bullpen segways and you could replace pitchers without stopping play.

Dan Szymborski: Not really my favorite idea.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t like changing the actual rules of baseball on a tactical level in-game.

Dan Szymborski: You can get a similar result by making roster restrictions that don’t impact in-game rules.

Comment From Snid
Why would any team sign Andrew Jones? Wouldn’t it be better to just play your best AAAA player?

Dan Szymborski: That was the rest of the question.

Dan Szymborski: Ideally again, yes, but not every team will exactly have that available right now.

Dan Szymborski: AAAA guys tend to be above replacement after all – replacement level players are really quite horrible.

Comment From Matt
How can we convince ARod to actually fully embrace his heel role? It would be good for baseball.

Dan Szymborski: As i”ve said before, I don’t think he has the self-awareness.

Comment From Minty
Is Beckham blocking Micah Johnson, or just buying him time?

Dan Szymborski: Beckham’s there on a 1 year/$2 million deal. If Johnson’s crushing it in Charlotte (his AAA performance suggests that he’d still stand to benefit from minor league time), he’ll take the job.

Dan Szymborski: Really, if the White Sox decide they have a better alternative, Beckham’s about as big an obstacle as an 8-year-old’s sand castle is to the ocean.

Comment From Second Base Sucks
Sorry, not that familiar with ZiPS, but…does it take into account minor league numbers? How are they weighted against MLB numbers when the MLB sample size is small? I’m looking at Kolten Wong and thinking I’ll take the over on his projected ratios next season.

Dan Szymborski: Yes. Else it wouldn’t be able to project anybody playing in the minors.

Dan Szymborski: MLB numbers are slightly more predictive, but that distinction has been exaggerated in neo-classical sabermetrics.

Dan Szymborski: (There are quite a few ways to estimate minor leaguers and mitigating selection bias issues – we know that MLB talent is the extreme right side of a distribution and can do quite a bit of extrapolation)

Comment From Mike T
Do you think the Mets take a shot on Viciedo as a bench bat / 4th OF? Would be insurance in case Cuddyer gets hurt

Dan Szymborski: I don’t see why they should.

Dan Szymborski: There are at least 4 non-starting Mets outfielders I’d want to play before Dayan Vicideo.

Dan Szymborski: Viciedo’s just not very good.

Comment From RotoLando
The real stars of the game last night were the stage engineers who did not kill Katy Perry on that “The More You Know” contraption.

Comment From Jason
Thoughts on a Kershaw for Puig/Cobb trade in a dynasty league? Is the potential of Puig worth a downgrade in pitching?

Dan Szymborski: That’s a tough one – depends on your needs.

Comment From Brett
What’s the difference between http://www.fangraphs.com/de… and http://www.fangraphs.com/de…? To use the Royals as an example (because that’s the team I was looking at), in one place they’re projected for 35.5 WAR (with a 47.7 replacement level, that’s 83.2 wins), while in the other spot, they’re projected to finish 81-81. While the Indians are projected for 35.6 WAR (0.1 WAR more than the Royals), but an 84-78 record (3 more wins). My guess is that the projected records take schedule into account, but I’m surprised the schedule would make that much of a difference for teams in the same division. Is there something else going on as well?

Dan Szymborski: You guys really have to ask the Davids these things.

Dan Szymborski: I’m just about the worst person to ask about what’s going on at Fangraphs! And I tell you guys this every week!

Comment From Mike
16 Months ago Porcello was the 5th starter on a world series contender. Today he is the Ace of a world series contender. This is despite (per Zips) being projected to be worth 0.4 WAR more than he was when he was a #5. I guess my question is, huh?

Dan Szymborski: Strange obsession with ordinal number for $1000, Alex.

Comment From Dan OShaugnessy, Probably
I HEAR MOOKIE BETTS TAKES ALL THE PEDS!!!

Comment From March Madness
I am the cure for PSAD.

Comment From Phillies113
I keep wondering when the ZiPS for the Phillies will be released, but then I remind myself ZiPS is only for major league teams. Sigh…

Comment From Mike T
Brad Miller or Chris Taylor, who wins that starting job in Seattle? Is it a platoon situation (Both WARs are 2.3)?

Dan Szymborski: I actually wouldn’t be shocked to see one traded in the spring if the Mariners see an opportunity to address a hole.

Comment From baltic wolf
Dan: I’m an Orioles fan, but to me the ZIPS projections for Chris Davis seem to be a little optimistic. He saw a lot of shifts last year (close to 85%) and he consistently hit into the shift—as his spray chart demonstrates. How does ZIPs see a nearly 50 pt. improvement in BA (or 96 RBI) when the balls you don’t hit over the fence are heading in the direction of shifted fielders?

Dan Szymborski: He was also far worse against the shift than he had previously. Let’s not forget he was shifted 50% of the time in 2013.

Dan Szymborski: Shifting numbers are no less immune to volatility and sample size issues.

Comment From RotoLando
What would be your ideal halftime show?

Dan Szymborski: Russell Brand being hit in the crotch with a baseball bat over and overa gain.

Comment From Disguised Julio Urias Question
Is age-vs-level less important for pitchers than hitters? If so, why?

Dan Szymborski: It does tend to be a little less important – the why is harder.

Dan Szymborski: Pitchers are more volatile as prospects.

Comment From Katy Perry is a Satanic witch
Meant the 26 homer part for O’Brien seems generous is all

Dan Szymborski: Why? There’s never been any question about his power.

Comment From George is Curious
Not sure if you play in many fantasy leagues, but what kind of strategy tips would you offer to someone taking part in an AL-only league, especially when it comes to preparing for an upcoming auction?

Dan Szymborski: A ltitle too general – can you be more specific?

Comment From mtsw
There seems to be a consensus that Ichiro’s Hall of Fame resume gets to take into consideration his late entry into the MLB and his time in Japan as mitigating factors on his career numbers. Shouldn’t Andruw Jones (a borderline HoF case) get similar extra credit for his seasons as an NPB All-Star?

Dan Szymborski: He should, but there’s a small minority of the voter base that we’re just trying to get above the level of irredeemably ignorant – getting them to the level of consistent NPB evaluation is much later.

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Can you explain to me why people Pablo Sandoval is a difference maker? I mean, he is an avg defender (right now), and has hit .279/.335/.422 over the last 3 seasons (in a downward trend). He is a 2 to 3 WAR player with a bad body. Why the 90 Mil and why the hype?

Dan Szymborski: I agree – I think he’s overrated and he was one of my least favorite signnings.

Comment From JR Murphy to ARI for Jacob Lamb sound about fair to you? What makes it fair?
Odds the next CBA has the international draft:

Dan Szymborski: 50/50. MLBPA has no qualms selling out possible future members.

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Are you buying Eovaldi shares this season? Seems like a popular breakout candidate.

Dan Szymborski: I thought he had figured something out last year, but he regressed a lot. I dont’ think Yankee Stadium is a great fit – he’s going to be punished for his lapses.

Comment From Mike T
I saw Yankees ZIPs today, looks like Betances and Miller was very close. Is this going to be a closer by committee situation, or does Betances have the inside edge?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I’m n ot sure the Yankees are really sure just how it will play out yet.

Dan Szymborski: I’d frankly vary it based on the lineup config of the likely opposing hitters in the 8th/9th, but closer experiments only seem to last in baseball as until a couple saves are blown

Comment From Guest
How happy would you be if Arod comes back and hit .280 with 30 HR just to troll the Yankees?

Dan Szymborski: It would be fun of course, but I dont’ expect much from A-Rod.

Comment From Tom
Kuroda’s #1 comp is Greg Maddux. I know this means nothing … unless it does …

Dan Szymborski: It’s not saying that Kuroda’s career is similar to Maddux, it’s simply that Kuroda’s late 30s performance was similar to Maddux’s.

Comment From Shameless Shoehorn
What was your SB food of choice last night??

Dan Szymborski: My sister made buffalo wings, old bay wings, and deep dish Chicago pizza (her fiancee is from Chicago)

Comment From Your Local Nationwide Agent
How can you talk about baseball when there are Flat Screen Death Machines in your living room RIGHT NOW, waiting to crush our nation’s future leaders like an Acme anvil? You uncaring monster!

Dan Szymborski: Oh, the Nationwide safety thing?

Dan Szymborski: Meh.

Dan Szymborski: We already have way too much helicopter parenting.

Dan Szymborski: Even watching some of my friends control their kids’ schedules like their kids are the president annoys me.

Dan Szymborski: There will always be devastating tragedies. But we’re getting ot the point where kids are going to have to be hermetically sealed in development pods until they’re adults, like the Borg in star trek.

Comment From STiVo
Would our baseball datasets be more useful if we broke down players age more granularly? Now it’s just “age as of July 1, right? Anything useful gained by saying a player is, e.g., 23.047 years?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so. If anything, we should be less granular than we are. a 22 year-old isn’t really *that* crazily different than a 21 or 23 year old. These aren’t toddler.s.

Comment From Shameless Shoehorn
I watched the SB with Dave Cameron, all he did was talk about the projected results.. He said the actual outcome doesnt matter, because the projections are more accurate than real like.

Dan Szymborski: Heh, what brought this fight up?

Dan Szymborski: You guys should know that Tiwtter arguments don’t always have much room for subtlety. You’re overstating David’s position

Comment From Drugs
Who needs me when you’ve got the Superbowl Halftime Show?

Comment From Guest
How about that Undertaker nerf? Should’ve just made it 1/1

Dan Szymborski: I woul dhave mad it 1/1 or 0/2 to start and left the deathrattle mechanism unchanged.

Dan Szymborski: But the change they went with is justifiable – Undertaker is still an excellent card for a neutral 1-drop.

Dan Szymborski: And the thing about the Undertaker’s design is it limited future cards a bit because any low mana deathrattle card would essentially strengthen udnertaker

Comment From Mike T
Thoughts on Lorenzo Cain this year? is he a potential breakout guy, or does he regress from his very high BABIP?

Dan Szymborski: I think you saw the breakout – there will be some regression I expect.

Comment From Jimmmers
-33 this morning and snowing, great way to wake your self up after a 4 hour night where your body is simply trying to process the beer, chips and chilly..

Comment From Guest
Wait, are we talking about AndrUw Jones?

Comment From Tom Jones
Who do you like better between Alex Jackson and DJ Peterson? Which one is most likely to make an impact sooner rather than later?

Dan Szymborski: Peterson’s less risky, I feel.

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Katie Perry is hot… That is all..

Comment From Benny Ramirez
Do the Cubs benefit long term by keeping Kris Bryant down for a couple of months?

Dan Szymborski: Not for a couple of months.

Dan Szymborski: But it’s useful to eke out an extra year of service time.

Dan Szymborski: But once that passes, I don’t know what he’s going to benefit by killing AAA pitchers some more.

Dan Szymborski: Strikeouts are overrated for a guy like Bryant. Part of his high strikeout total is that even though he’ll lay off a pitch, he *is* aggressive when he likes something.

Dan Szymborski: And when your’e slugging .650, you’re getting a really high payoff on swings.

Comment From Guest
Snoop Dogg has claimed to be one of the sharks. I have my doubts; those creatures had no moves.

Comment From Guest
Wait, ZiPS uses more than last year’s numbers to come up with an arbitrary figure that is overly biased unless it tells me that my team’s players will all put up the same baseball card stats as last year except slightly better (because they’ve gained useful experience in that year)? What ever will I rail on in the fangraphs comment sections?

Comment From Mike, of Mike and the Mechanics Fame
I’m really more of an Austrian School Sabermetrician…

Comment From Josh I
I have an idea for a new metric – using a pitcher’s shoulder rotation and lateral hip movement to determine if a pitcher is too rotational or too lateral. Perhaps is can predict future injury, or it might be the reason for changes in performance (i.e. Justin Verlander’s decline). Is there a place I can find data for shoulder rotation in degrees and lateral hip movement? Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think that data is available.

Comment From Guest
Does it make you upset that the 584k people of Wyoming get full federal representation, while the 658k people of DC get none?

Dan Szymborski: No. I only find it unfair to current residents that were born before 1801.

Comment From Guest
ZiPS appears to be pretty bearish on Sabathia, particularly with his innings pitched. Do you think the knee continues to be a problem? Do you think he can be a 3ish WAR pitcher again?

Dan Szymborski: I think he can be. His continual velocity loss worries ZiPS.

Comment From DJ
I have seen projections have the mets anywhere from 78-82 wins. What needs to happen for this team (assuming no additional changes) to get into the 85 win area?

Dan Szymborski: Better managed for one. I have little faith in Terry Collins optimizing usage of his roster.

Comment From Prospector
The Mets already signed Dayan Viciedo this offseason. Except his name is spelled John Mayberry.

Comment From Guest
Why is my nose bleeding so often lately

Dan Szymborski: Most likely winter dryness. I’ve always got a little blood in there this time of year.

Comment From Avid Reader
If I sign up for Fangraphs+, do I get access to all ESPN Insider baseball articles, or simply the ones that are written by a Fangraphs member? Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: Gonna smack you guys!

Dan Szymborski: Not sure honestly. I *think* it was the ones written by FanGraphs guys but I’m not positive.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t bleieve I’m included for that purpose, unless i’m getting the whole thing wrong.

Dan Szymborski: But again I don’t know! Ask a David.

Comment From Jim
I’m curious about the ZIPS projection for Rizzo. He showed marked improvement in approach especially against LH pitching and yet his BA is projected to decrease by 17 points. Is he being penalized too much for his 2013 struggles?

Dan Szymborski: Why is it too much?

Comment From The Oriole Bird
If Dylan Bundy came out blowing the competition away at, say, the AA level, would ZiPS upgrade his projection relatively quickly, given previous success? (In other words, would ZiPS believe in a strong start more from someone who had previous success before injury, as opposed to player who comes out of nowhere?)

Dan Szymborski: Fairly quickly – ZiPS still kinda likes Bundy, but it’s been awhile since he’s done awesome things.

Comment From Joe
if i wanted to try to build my own rough projection system, what advice would you give me? i’m fairly cognizant of statistics, but the baseball application is complex. thanks!

Dan Szymborski: Have lots of time.

Comment From Guest
In what year will the Chicago Cubs look like the 2015 Philadelphia Phillies?

Dan Szymborski: 2032 when an improbably-still-employed Ruben Amaro Jr. signs all the 2015 Cubs.

Comment From Guest
PSAD solution: more video games. Any that you have in mind for the next month?

Dan Szymborski: Nothing particularly new.

Dan Szymborski: Maybe Attila, but after Rome, I’m holding off on the next Total War game.

Comment From STiVo
What was Tanaka’s elbow injury he dealt with last year? Was it a bad one?

Dan Szymborski: Partial UCL tear.

Dan Szymborski: Which can be bad.

Comment From DogBone
Buster Onley had glowing views on the Pirates saying other teams r now trying to emulate them. Who would have ever thunk it. Are they the new Devil Rays when TB was consistently winning years ago?

Dan Szymborski: The Pirates are run much better – the Coonelly/Huntington takeover wasn’t just swapping out the upper management. They essentially cleaned out the Augean stable, the Pirates were a mess previously from top to bottom.

Comment From SteveV
Have you met your FG colleagues or are they cyber colleagues?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve met quite a few.

Dan Szymborski: Hmm, a few.

Dan Szymborski: The guys I’ve mostly met in person are the 90s stathead crowd (guys like Forman) and ESPN/media guys.

Comment From Tom
Why isn’t replacement level player an AAAA player instead of the High A level ball player? Would it just require too much reworking over the system?

Dan Szymborski: Replacement is trying to get literally zero value. In-season, even the AAAA guys you have to trade something for in most cases.

Comment From Guest
Why doesn’t baseball allow the use of HGH? I get steroids because the side effects can be pretty bad, but the side effects of HGH are absolutely minimal. It seems pointless.

Dan Szymborski: Mostly because of perception.

Dan Szymborski: If it’s *perceived* to be cheating MLB gets no benefit from allowing it.

Dan Szymborski: If the public believed magnetic bracelets were cheating, MLB would ban them too.

Dan Szymborski: (And HGH is likely more towards the magnetic bracelets on the benefits spectrum)

Comment From YouHateMyTeam
New to the strategy PC game world but I love the Civ games. What would you recommend I try next?

Dan Szymborski: Crusader Kings 2 is the best grand strategy game of the last 5 years.

Comment From DogBone
Do shifts make zips projections screwy?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t found a *significant* issue yet.

Dan Szymborski: I think shifts tend to be overrated. They’re useful, but the degree has been blown out of proportion as they became more mainstraem.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, you can always pick out guys with extreme splits in a year. Small sample sizes don’t just go away because they came after a strategy.

Dan Szymborski: Shifts are way more useful than, say Tuesday hitters or something of course, but they’re not massive game-changing things.

Dan Szymborski: And long-term, these things tend to be self-correcting.

Comment From Guest
would you drink a pumpkin peach ale y/n

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I didn’t get that Bud commercial.

Dan Szymborski: The commercial was “Budweiser: Yeah our beer is shitty but it’s badass.”

Dan Szymborski: The Natty Boh/PBR hipster thing doesn’t work for a behemoth.

Comment From Buck Turgidson
You should set aside your axe grinding on the MLBPA. Whatever you think of the current leadership they continue to hold the line on issues of principle more firmly than the other 3 major sports PA’s.

Dan Szymborski: I’d prefer to live under Pinochet than Pol Pot, Stalin, or Hitler, but that doesn’t mean there weren’t serious issues.

Dan Szymborski: The fact is that ownership has used PED’s as a wedge with the MLBPA and the MLBPA’s leadership has let it.

Comment From Guest
Mmm you can really taste the beechwood said no one ever

Comment From Matt
In an alternate universe where the NFLPA was as powerful as the MLBPA, How much money would a player like Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers be worth at their peak? Stanton got $325M, isn’t close to as valuable as a good QB and plays a sport that is worth less money.

Dan Szymborski: A ton of money. Which makes it tactically harder for the NFLPA to maintain cohesion.

Dan Szymborski: There’s no baseball player as valuable to a baseball team as a QB is to a football team. So there would be much bigger inequities in the NFL in a fairer system.

Comment From Matt
But the 658k people of DC get a much better baseball team than the people of Wyoming.

Comment From Guest
It’s a daintily originalist thought, but the infrastructure and housing for hundreds of thousands of people isn’t going anywhere, and a lot of people don’t have the choice to not leave town (especially a portion of lower-income minority voters).

Dan Szymborski: HTF did this even come up?

Dan Szymborski: Lower-income voters in DC have more pressing concerns than the almost irrelevant-to-them change that a 436th representative and a 52nd senator would realistically bring them.

Dan Szymborski: You can’t argue pragmatist reasons for DC statehood when all the arguments are symbolic rather than realistic.

Dan Szymborski: A far better option would be to simply add the residents to Maryland elections.

Comment From Guest
(And let’s not forget, in that wonderful world of 1801 a large portion of these people’s ancestors were owned by other human beings.)

Dan Szymborski: You’re really going to compare lack of DC statehood to slavery? Are you literally the dumbest person ever?

Comment From mtsw
What’s up with how Apple computers are such dicks about improperly ejecting hard disks and stuff?

Dan Szymborski: Apple computers are designed to be dicks.

Dan Szymborski: Want to change your Retina Macbook battery? Sorry, this shit is GLUED TOGETHER LOLOLROFL~!

Comment From STiVo
Remember when you had to take the red (or was it yellow?) placard to authenticate yourself before loading up Sim City back in like, 1989 or something? That was something.

Dan Szymborski: Yes. it was a two-paged red cardboard thing that listed current population of cities a the time SimCity was made.

Dan Szymborski: It wouldn’t even ask you the page of a city – it gave you a geometric code that you had to match to a city

Comment From mtsw
Re: magnetic bracelets, do you know how many, if any, players among the many who wear them, actually believe they work?

Dan Szymborski: A number that’s depressingly high.

Comment From JayT
I’m represented by two people I almost completely disagree with. No representation doesn’t sound too bad to me!

Comment From Joe
That Budweiser commercial reminds me of the attitudes of bad BBWAA writers’ Hall of Fame voters. Basically, “we know we’re losing because we have an inferior product, so we’ll just call the other side nerds.”

Dan Szymborski: In fact, everyone I was at the Super Bowl party with was like “peach pumpkin ale, I’d totally want that!”

Comment From nick44
How do you feel about Shane Greene as a 5 slot starter? Is it too early to believe he will have long term success?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be OK, but overrated.

Comment From Snid
BASEBALL!!!!!!

Comment From Guest
Barry Bonds had a .609 OBP in 2004. Since that season, only 20 players have had a slugging percentage higher than .609. Barry Bonds was really good.

Comment From Jimmers
Who is your favorite FG writter to hang out with?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t hanged out with enough to make a fair assessment.

Dan Szymborski: And I haven’t hanged out at all with Cistulli, Sarris, or Wiers and I think they’d be fun.

Dan Szymborski: OK, last chance for anything off topic.

Comment From dbet
Get ready to play against Mech Mage 70% of the time for the next month…

Dan Szymborski: Mech mage is an excellent aggro deck, but it doesn’t have the same fundamental unfairness that Undertaker brought in the right build.

Comment From JV
Joey Gallo or JP Crawford? Who would you rather have 3 years from now

Dan Szymborski: I think Crawford, but it’s not at all close.

Comment From Guest
what’s for lunch?

Dan Szymborski: Nothing – I can never handle food for a day after all the crazy stuff I eat on super bowls.

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Oh my god I’m awake in time for this. I don’t have any questions. What question should I ask?

Dan Szymborski: OH GOD YOU USED UP YOUR ONE QUESTION

Dan Szymborski: You should ask me what Anthony Rendon’s career projected WAR is. But not this week since that was your question!

Comment From Sean
Were you a Starcraft fan?

Comment From Mike T
You must construct additional pylons

Dan Szymborski: I was never really into Starcraft. Space and aliens isn’t really my preferred setting for stuff.

Comment From Totally NOT Sgt. Pepper
What is Anthony Rendon’s career projected WAR

Dan Szymborski: Sorry, i would have answered, but now I know you’re asking for him.

Comment From DanD
Will Robbie Ross be included in Texas’ ZIPs release even after the trade, or have you / will you / can you post that one separately? I’m assuming Boston will put him back into a relief role, but ZIPs will project him as a starter after last year?

Dan Szymborski: I’m sure I’ll tweet Ross when I’m running full Rangers

Dan Szymborski: Will probably leave him in the mixed role and not force ZiPS to pick a “side” until the final spring ones.

Dan Szymborski: And on that note, time for me to leave for another week.

Dan Szymborski: As usual, you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter.