Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 2/23/15
12:00 |
: Afternoon gang, let’s start out with our president-related business.
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12:00 |
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12:00 |
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12:01 |
Mona Lisa Saperstein voice: Matt Bowman zips, pwease (makes hand gesture.) |
12:01 |
: You’ve laready put it on the spreadsheet!
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12:01 |
Who are you and what have you done with Dan “Always Late Starting the Chat” Szymborski? |
12:01 |
: I come and go as I pleases!
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12:01 |
Does Commish Manfredi grow a pair and make changes to the international market before the way to rich kill every other team? |
12:01 |
: No.
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12:01 |
Chase Utley should walk into the Hall of Fame, right? |
12:02 |
: Should. Won’t.
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12:02 |
I’m not even going to say it Dan, but you should know that I’m disappointed. |
12:02 |
: What’d I do now?
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12:02 |
Where’s the ZiPS! Post the ZiPS! |
12:02 |
: The spreadsheet’s been up for 18 hours!
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12:02 |
I see no spreadsheet Dan! |
12:02 |
: That’s what you get for not following me on Twitter.
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12:03 |
: Where the heck is everyone today? The queue is like empty.
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12:03 |
Damn Twitter machine. |
12:03 |
Ahh the person I should be yelling at is Appleman then. When’s the Appleman chat? |
12:04 |
: I’m leaving the spreadsheet up for a few days befor eI give the go-ahead – gives time for error checking
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12:04 |
Where is Fangraph headquarters and why? |
12:04 |
: Greywater Watch
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12:04 |
What’s up with how readily people are willing to attribute unprovable things to Lincoln? Tons of articles on how he was clincally depressed, secretly gay, or had Aspergers even though this stuff could never be more than speculation. Wasn’t his life interesting enough on it’s own? Also he’d kick Monroe’s ass. |
12:04 |
Be a pal and provide a link? I’ll forgive you of your past transgressions. |
12:05 | : |
12:05 |
Break out candidates.. Tomas or Souza? |
12:05 |
: Tomas – there’s more uncertainty there
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12:05 |
Is Yoan the new #1 prospect in the RS system? Poor ol’ Swihart demoted to #2? |
12:07 |
: There’s enough uncertainty about Moncada that I’d probably put Swihart first still, but I think I’m in the minority.
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12:07 |
I don’t have a cell phone so don’t do Twitter, when do the rest of us Luddites get access to the ZiPS? |
12:07 |
: Why do you need a cell phone to do twitter?
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12:07 |
I was upset that we didn’t have a President’s Day chat brawl. Go back in time and keep your Monday timeslot for last week damnit! |
12:07 |
: You can’t make presidents fight on presidents’ day.
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12:07 |
You were (very justifiably) harsh on the Braves for the Markakis signing – do you have a higher opinion of them after seeing the rest of the offseason? Love the Gattis trade and I think some of the cheap pitchers they signed will pan out. |
12:08 |
: Not really. The Gattis trade is fine, but I’m still unimpressed with Hart’s stint.
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12:08 |
Do you think MLB players should be more candid? |
12:08 |
: I’d like it, but it doens’t benefit them that much.
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12:08 |
http://en.wikipedia.org/wik… for example |
12:08 |
Is it dangerous to assume that an average of 2 well respected projection systems projections is going to end up with a better projection? Any particular dangers to doing this? If you were an unbiased (from a projection system standpoint) fantasy player would you do this? |
12:09 |
: It should perform decently, but you’re averaging things that don’t necessarily have identical meaning.
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12:09 |
I’m certain asked and answered previously. But please answer for an old forgetful man. Do you make adjustments to the Zips numbers based on your own thoughts/intuition/experiences? If so, can you tell us of any? |
12:10 |
: Absolutely not. And I wouldn’t, even if it improved the results.
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12:10 |
Please help settle a dispute – does the A’s projected AAA rotation (Graveman/Nolin/Bassitt/Zito/Mills) have the POTENTIAL to be better than the Astros’ MLB rotation? Thanks. |
12:10 |
: They’d need a lot of luck – that’s not exactly an impressive five.
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12:11 |
The Red Sox just paid 100% tax on Yoan Moncada. What are you willing to pay 100% tax on? |
12:11 |
: Things that are 50% off.
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12:11 |
re: Yoan Does this type of money make him untradeable? |
12:12 |
: Not really – the tax penalty doesn’t get traded if they trade Moncada next year.
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12:12 |
Are you bearish on Harvey returning to form? I have this suspicion he will be awesome immediately. |
12:12 |
: I think he’ll be fine.
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12:12 |
What do you expect from Jacob deGrom this up-coming season? If he were to perform like he did last year, this year; would he officially be tabbed as a very good number 2 starter? Or would we need to see it even longer? |
12:14 |
: Well, if he pitched like he did last year, he’s a clear ace – that was a 130 ERA+ last year. Only 18 pitchers with 2000 IP have a career ERA+ above 130.
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12:15 |
: Though I’d expect him to be more a number 2.
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12:15 |
If today’s athletes are so much stronger than the past, why are there 40 oz bats being used in the 30s-60s? What’s the heaviest stick swung these days? |
12:16 |
: Emphasis on bat speed for very good reasons – pitchers throw faster than they used to.
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12:18 |
: Heaviest bat, I’m not sure. I think Harper tried a 36 ounce but that would be on the high side today.
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12:18 |
so what happened with moncada – all signs pointed toward a bonus between 40-50 mil, then add the tax… 31.5 is still alot, but the yanks only went to 25, are more teams kicking themselves from not staying in it? did the potential of yankees and redsox bidding scare everyone off enough to bring his price down? |
12:19 |
: It’s a big price for a guy with a lot of unknowns.
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12:19 |
Dude killed vampires with an axe, no question Abe wins |
12:19 |
Smarter for Mets to hang onto SP depth or trade for long-term SS or OF solution? |
12:19 |
: I think it’s smarter to see what they have rather than jump the gun. Plus they already traded a top draft pick for the right to sign an ancient DH to play in the outfield.
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12:20 |
Barry Zito is apparently throwing in the high 80s this spring… if that’s true and the curve is still there, is he a potential comeback player of the year? |
12:20 |
: Perhaps, but I’m skeptical. All comebacks and bouncebacks look amazing in February.
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12:20 |
I like ISO and I like OBP, so I started using a simple ISO + OBP metric to see how it ranked guys. A little heavy on power but that’s become more important these days. Then I did some algebra and realized that ISO + OBP is the same as OPS – BA and my head exploded. |
12:20 |
: OPS is essentially 2 * BA + Iso + Walk Rate. Not exactly, but close.
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12:21 |
Is the updated ZiPS going to stay in an easily accessible form like you have now w/ the google doc? Love this so much more than the FG .csv files. |
12:21 |
: No, FG does all the in-season projections.
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12:21 |
After the Nationals, who has the best starting rotation in baseball? |
12:22 |
: Possibly Dodgers. Should probably rank the Nats 1st through 4th out of principle.
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12:22 |
Which of the last two WS winners wins more games in 2015? |
12:22 |
: Boston by a nose
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12:22 |
How does ZIPS project IP’s. In a semi related question how do you see Carlos Martinez fairing this year? |
12:22 |
: Recent years, injury history, age.
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12:22 |
You can’t WALK into the hall of fame, you need to hit DINGERS, but only good, NON-STEROID DINGERS |
12:23 |
: Well, non-steroid dingers that dumbass writers decide are non-steroid dingers.
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12:23 |
Can you believe how fast Jose Reyes defense has fallen? I’m assuming you saw the article on BTB? Would a move to 2nd base help out or are the Jays stuck with 70 M of dead money? |
12:23 |
: It’s not unheard of. Defense peaks really early
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12:23 |
I can’t afford a subscription but I know you deserve to be compensated for your thoughtful analysis, so maybe you can just give me the gist: was it you or Law who liked Joc Pederson better, and why? Can I get like, twenty words pro bono? |
12:24 |
: YOu can get it for like $8 a year!
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12:24 |
: ZiPS liked Joc better – had him #2 behind Bryant
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12:24 |
: Unless he ends up way worse in CF than advertised, he’d have to be a complete offensive flop to not have value.
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12:25 |
What’s the next bracket after fighting Presidents? |
12:25 |
: Not sure, we still have a ways to go
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12:25 |
Are you as excited for the next EU4 expansion as I am? Custom nation builder! |
12:25 |
: Should be cool.
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12:25 |
Can you suggest how I can project fielding errors for hitters in 2015 based on either or both of FLD or DEF or something else? I only have to be as accurate as I can relatively, not absolutely. In other words, I just need to, for example, project that Ian Desmond would have approximately twice as many errors as Zach Cozart if they play the same number of games. |
12:26 |
: I’m not quite sure I understand. Errors are far easier to measure than non-error plays made/not made
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12:26 |
Is sliding head-first into first base a viable strategy? |
12:26 |
: Well, if it’s a pickoff attempt…
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12:26 |
: Now, if you’re the batter running to first, sliding into first is best saved for thos einstances in which you’ve placed a bet on the other team to win.
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12:26 |
How much faith do you have in Jon Schoop becoming an above-average big leaguer? |
12:27 |
: Not a *whole* lot of faith. I think he’ll be an average player, 2-2.5 WAR players for awhile, which is quite solid, but I don’t think he has a big upside.
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12:28 |
If Evreth Cabrera is the new starting 2B in Baltimore, would it benefit Jonathan Schoop more to be the new Ryan Flaherty and back up the infield or go back to AAA to try and fix his swing? |
12:29 |
: He’s still young – if he’s not starting, he should be playing fulltime in the minors
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12:29 |
There seem to be a lot of unknowns about the Indians rotation. Which do you think is most/least likely – Kluber repeat, Carrasco top 5 Cy Young, Trevor Bauer breakout, Gavin Floyd full season, Salazar full season. |
12:29 |
: Kluber, Salazar, Bauer, Carrasco, Floyd
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12:29 |
Will players with elaborate between-pitches rituals (i.e. Nick Markakis) be negatively effected by the new pace-of-game rules that prevent them from stepping out of the batter’s box during at-bats? Seems stupid to some, but I imagine this could really mess up their rhythm after years of doing it. |
12:29 |
: I hope so.
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12:29 |
: But baseball is a game of adjustment.
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12:30 |
: Anyone that damaged by non-batting rituals probably isn’t good enough at adjusting to be a major leaguer.
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12:30 |
I know he has no chance, but I’m going Monroe. Revolutionary War veteran – will pull out all the stops in a brawl. NL only 5×5 7-keeper. Can go after one in a trade and protect for the next 3 years. All are almost exactly the same salary and good values — how would you rank and is it that close: J.Pederson, J.Harrison, J.Baez. |
12:30 |
So I can keep Harvey as a 5th round pick. That’s clearly high for a SP with TJ concerns, but it’s a dynasty league and I’d hate to lose the rest of his career. Worth the cost? |
12:30 |
: Depends what the cost is.
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12:30 |
In 2017, Moncada is the Red Sox starting ______? I keep hearing “move Sandoval to 1B”, but at 1B Sandoval losses value and basicly becomes Billy Butler. I can’t see anyone being moved given team control/contracts. |
12:30 |
: This is too premature, I think.
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12:30 |
Is there any use for OPS? I think it is the most misleading “metric” out there. The OBP and SLG have different denominators! It makes me angry that people add those two rates together…. |
12:31 |
: Because it’s rough, it’s useful.
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12:31 |
Soriano used a 38 ounce bat, yes? |
12:31 |
: 35 I thought. 38? That would be the biggest of any currently in MLB, I believe
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12:31 |
The Insider and ESPN the magazine costs me like $10 a year |
12:32 | : |
12:32 |
Which current and recently retired players would the HoF waive the 5-year waiting period for if they were diagnosed with a terminal disease a la Lou Gehrig? |
12:33 |
: If someone appeared to be a slam dunk and had a clearly terminal illness, I’d expect it to be waived.
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12:33 |
Too many Ryans in this chat. |
12:33 |
A guy who misses the ball over 1 in for AB’s.. and he’s considered the best prospect in baseball.. when did the inmates take over the asylum..? |
12:34 |
Better 2015 Soler or Bryant? |
12:34 |
: Bryant I think.
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12:34 |
Ruth-era Yankees were great teams, but isn’t it sort of cheating that they had Ruth and Gehrig playing in a stadium with a 250 foot foul pole in RF? |
12:34 |
: Yeah, but we can take that into consideration
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12:34 |
Which is more likely, a player breaking the single season home run record, or any of the questions in this chat being in order? |
12:35 |
: Heh, are they coming in out of order?
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12:35 |
Talk me off the Mookie ledge– he’ll get to start, right? (not necessarily AT right) |
12:35 |
: I expect Victorino will get injured at some point.
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12:35 |
Will Harper FINALLY have an MVP type year in 2015? |
12:35 |
: Not sure MVP-type, but he’s still got excellent breakout odds next few years
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12:35 |
Can you give us a sneak peak at a Hector Olivera projection? |
12:35 |
: Haven’t even done it.
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12:35 |
Is there any possible way to get ESPN insider WITHOUT subscribing to the magazine? Because I’d just want access to the site content; i REALLY don’t want to have magazines lying around. |
12:36 |
: I believe there’s an option you can change for digital delivery only. I *think*. There are organizations that seek magazines for overseas personnel, you could always change your mailing address to one of those programs
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12:36 |
Is Moncada another example of Yankees ownership being meddling? Apparently Cashman wanted to big more, but the Steinbrenners wouldn’t allow them to |
12:37 |
: Steinbrenners have the correct notion that you don’t have to spend $250 million to be an excellent team. But they dont’ realize that the *2015 Yankees* needed $250 million spent to be an excellent team
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12:37 |
Better chance at a “rebound” season.. Jason Kipnis or Nick Swisher?.. |
12:37 |
: Kipnis
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12:37 |
Re; EU4, do you feel like Paradox should work in the future towards integrating CK/EU/Victoria etc franchises into each other more or build out more detailed games/expansions that focus on specific eras/areas? |
12:37 |
: I think integrating them weakens them.
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12:37 |
where are you on pete rose |
12:37 |
: I miss kane piledriving him every royal rumble
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12:37 |
: or was it wrestlemania?
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12:38 |
wait wait wait…ZiPS doesn’t project WHIP? |
12:38 |
: It projects all the components.
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12:38 |
If Aaron Sanchez ends up at closer and has success there, does that eliminate his future as a starter? |
12:38 |
: It might unless management has some backbone
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12:39 |
Am I wrong in thinking the Dodgers offense could be quite bad this year? Agon and Puig are obviously really solid but it falls off pretty quick after that. |
12:39 |
: I think they’ll be fine, though not anywhere near the top in the league
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12:39 |
I’m getting an error message with the new auction too: header too long. Is it me or your website? |
12:40 |
: on ESPN? I’d contact customer support – I wouldn’t know who to direct the issues to.
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12:40 |
Should I, upon reaching my first HR bonus milestone in my contract, rip of my jersey and sprint to monument park and dance in front of Ruth’s monument? Give me TWO reasons not to! |
12:40 |
: You still have a strange belief that people will start loving you again.
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12:40 |
If Sandoval moves to 1st where would Napoli play? |
12:40 |
: By the time Sandoval would mvoe to 1st, I doubt Napoli’s around
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12:41 |
Rygar is underrated as an NES game because if it’s difficulty. Discuss. |
12:41 |
: Fun game, good music. Tough.
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12:41 |
: I don’t believe I ever beat it.
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12:41 |
Who would win in a fight – Nolan Ryan, Ryan Howard or the Ryan complaining about too many Ryans? |
12:41 |
: Nolan Ryan
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12:41 |
Do you believe Jason Heyward has as much breakout potential as Harper? Just can’t believe he’s hit his offensive peak. |
12:41 |
: Harper has more upside, I believe.
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12:41 |
: Though I think Heyward will improve.
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12:42 |
Ubaldo Jimenez has reportedly adjusted his delivery and looks much better in Spring Training. That leaves 6 starters to fill 5 spots in the Baltimore rotation. Should they bump Gausman since he’d be by far the most useful bullpen guy, even tho he’s arguably the second-best starter? Or am I thinking about this backwards? |
12:42 |
: I’d bump Gonzalez honestly.
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12:42 |
Which big Red Sox expenditure are they most likely to regret in 5 years: Panda, Hanley or Yoan? |
12:42 |
: Panda I think.
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12:42 |
$11 Sale for $10 Brantley which side do you like? |
12:42 |
: Sale.
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12:42 |
You make me do excel math and you lost 2 points because of that. |
12:43 | : |
12:43 |
auction tool on fangraphs has the error |
12:43 |
: Contact a David.
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12:43 |
: I guess this serves as my weekly “I can’t fix your FanGraphs issues people!” answer.
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12:43 |
Chances Carlos Rodon starts season in the rotation? |
12:44 |
: No, he starts in the minors, I’m fairly certain.
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12:44 |
Do you like the Jays to take the division this year? How much would signing a guy like K-Rod/Soriano help their odds? |
12:44 |
: It would be helpful, and they have a good odds (I’d call TOR/BOS/BAL the first tier of the division). Best move at this point was getting a 2B, but that’s unlikely to happen at this point
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12:45 |
Tried Endless Legend at all? |
12:45 |
: I have not.
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12:45 |
Would you ever build a drone to battle Trevor Bauer’s in a reboot of Battle Bots? |
12:45 |
: I don’t have robot manufacturing skills!
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12:45 |
Any chance Jesus Montero becomes an avg baseball player? |
12:45 |
: Small chance, but I’m pessimistic
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12:45 |
A. Rod should start eating gummy bears in the dugout and mime inject himself everytime he hits a HR. Would be so much better if he went full heel. |
12:45 |
: Hey, the mime injuection thing was my idea!
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12:46 |
Can you have Appelman include the team and position data in the csv file? |
12:46 |
: I’ll ask him.
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12:46 |
Does twitter kinda make mlbtr obsolete? |
12:46 |
: Twitter is not organized well.
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12:46 |
: And there’s a lot of junk on twitter to sift through
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12:47 |
Hey Dan! Who will be the better offensive 1B in Los Angeles this year, Pujols or Gonzalez? |
12:47 |
: I’d say Pujols, but not by a mile or anything
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12:47 |
Regarding TJ surgery on pitchers, has there been any study done with relation to arm slot? The “natural motion” is more of 3/4 or side-arm throw. Could pitchers in those slots have less TJ surgeries than those that pitch over-the-top? |
12:47 |
: I’m not aware of anything publicly at least, but it’s very possible I missed it. Research isn’t as centralized as it was 15 yeasr ago
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12:48 |
Pete Rose Wrestlemania 15, 1999 |
12:48 |
Agree about Twitter. MLBTR is my goto for reliable baseball news. |
12:48 |
Is there a reason Zips doesn’t project saves? |
12:48 |
: I don’t project them for non-fantasy reasons until I do my playing time estimates.
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12:48 |
: Saves are the most usage-dependent stat by far.
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12:49 |
Sorry if I missed the answer – Pederson, J.Harrison or Baez over the next 3 years if roughly the same value in a traditional 5×5 NL only. |
12:50 |
: Depends on where your team is. Pederson is probably out – his ability to play CF isn’t valued in fantasy and the park effect is an issue
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12:50 |
: Harrison I think is the safer of him and Baez, but Baez has that crazy power upside but could fail, so it depends on yoru team
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12:51 |
Mayweather or Pacquiao? |
12:52 |
: I think Mayweather, but i dont’ have any particular expertise in boxing.
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12:54 |
is there a rule that pitching has to be overhand (i mean i know there are low angle, side-armers) but what is stopping someone from just ripping pitches up there underhand? control? and if underhand is allowed, do we ever see an elite female softball pitcher play in MLB? |
12:54 |
: Underhand is allowed (and existed before overhand pitching!)
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12:55 |
: The likely first female pitcher in MLB will have to be a pure junkballer or a knuckleballer, I think
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12:56 |
: But a lot would have to go right ot make that happen
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12:56 |
Man do I love Parks and Rec. |
12:57 |
WIll you be including QS inthe future to Zips? |
12:57 |
: Never really thought of it
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12:57 |
If a random kid (who looks freakishly athletic) hired Scott Boras and became a FA.. Yet no one had in game footage of him (just workout videos and numbers, 4.40 – 40 yard dash, 90+ MPH throws). How much money do you think Boras could get him? |
12:57 |
: Not much if anything at all – baseball tends to be far less obsessed with measurables than toher sports.
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12:57 |
: Physical measurables, I mean.
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12:58 |
: Just throwing 90 isnt’ enough and the speed doesn’t matter unless it’s a position player
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12:58 |
: You *might* see a fast player get a pinch-running job (happens occasionlly) but would have to beat a 4.4
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12:59 |
: Gore is probably a good bit faster than that and he still hit more in the minors than just some random fast running guy
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12:59 |
Which MLB player do you think would be the best fighter (keeping in mind that best athlete does NOT = best fighter)? |
1:00 |
: Hunter Pence because he’s a Sith.
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1:00 |
Rumor has it Dylan Bundy will play at AA Bowie in 2015 rather than AAA Norfolk, in part because Bowie is much closer geographically to Baltimore and the O’s brass wants to keep a close eye on him. Considering the geographic convienence of having the AAA team be in driving distance, why not swap the affiliations of Norfolk and Bowie or Norfolk and Frederick? |
1:00 |
: It’s not easy just to do that.
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1:01 |
: There are limits to the authority teams have over minor leagues when it comes to wider structure
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1:01 |
You nervous about Adam Jones lack of walking, or is it overblown with how consistent the guy is every year? |
1:01 |
: I’m not really nervous, he is what he is – he’s never going to be an OBP good.
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1:02 |
Hey guys, me and two of my close friends have created a baseball podcast where we talk about baseball and are working on interviewing players, please help us out and like comment share subscribe to the videos. Thank you! https://www.youtube.com/wat… |
1:03 |
: OK, wrapup time. So let’s get the lightning round started. When I say go, there will be a 3 minute period in which I have to answer all questions submitted during that timeframe, so long as they are off-topic (with exceptions for work-related things or explicit stuff, etc)
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1:03 |
: and GO
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1:03 |
chocolate or vanilla (ice cream)? |
1:03 |
: Chocolate.
|
1:03 |
is gentrification real? |
1:03 |
: Well, real in that it exists.
|
1:03 |
favortie non baseball sport? |
1:03 |
: Football
|
1:03 |
Won’t Crystalis take forever to finish in you NES journey? |
1:04 |
: I’ve beaten Crystalis before. Final boss is easy – you just have thyat barrier magic up
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1:04 |
Burt Reynolds. |
1:04 |
: Man’s man.
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1:04 |
MORE SNOW COMING, REPENT!!!! |
1:05 |
: Not here, got 8 inches Saturday butr it’s just cold
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1:05 |
who would win in a fight you or dan |
1:05 |
: So confused
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1:05 |
What did you learn from WWE Fastlane? |
1:05 |
: Wasnt’ feeling well last name so haven’t watched it yet
|
1:05 |
say something nice about 538’s current incarnation |
1:05 |
: It’s actual data journalism unlike Vox’s sad effort
|
1:05 |
what about ghosts and goblins? |
1:06 |
: HATE THAT FRIGGING GAMEW
|
1:06 |
: There’s that boss you can’t use the knife for but then you don’t have the knife which is the only weapon that doesn’t suck
|
1:06 |
: TIME
|
1:06 |
Who, what, when, and why? |
1:06 |
: Me, typing, now, being social
|
1:06 |
PawSox are moving. I wonder where they are going. Hopefully NH. |
1:06 |
: Providence most likely
|
1:06 |
standard deduction or itemize? |
1:06 |
: Itemize
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1:07 |
: Me or ideal? Ideal is what saves you money
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1:07 |
favorite Zelda game? |
1:07 |
: Link to the past.
|
1:07 |
: and time
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1:08 |
ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter. And I’m going to be doing some streaming starting in about 10 minutes at twitch.tv/zimsmash
: OK, thanks for joining me this week. As a reminder, you can find my work at |
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.