Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 3/24/14

Dan Szymborski: Cover it Live has something called “prep mode” which I do not use because no Cover it Live features scare me.

Dan Szymborski: First things first, I usual initial off-topic business, the Electoral Brawllege.

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Comment From Texas Dolly
Hey Dan. Thanks for doing the chat today! Thoughts on Tanner Scheppers and his emergence into the Texas rotation? What should we expect from him this season?

Dan Szymborski: As a starter, I expect him to be league-averageish, maybe a skosh below, but safely above replacment.

Dan Szymborski: Much better option than Joe Saunders. Joe Saunders would be like 11th or so on merit on the *Astros* depth chart.

Comment From Jake
All else equal, if a true talent .300 wOBA batter faces a .350 wOBA against pitcher, what is the expected wOBA of that PA? What about a .350 wOBA batter V. .300 wOBA pitcher? What is the general equation here?

Dan Szymborski: I’d probably use the odds ratio, but I’ve never used wOBA in that way.

Comment From Mike
Any chance that a Tabata-Snider right field platoon can be above average?

Dan Szymborski: some chance, but I expect it to be a relatively weak spot.

Dan Szymborski: People tend to overrate how efficient a platoon split will be – it’s inevitable in a day of situational relievers that both players will go against lots of opposite arm pitchers

Comment From Kev
More likely to gain entry into Orioles hall of fame: Lombo or Flaherty?

Dan Szymborski: Dunno. Flaherty should have decent power for a mediocre player and Lombardozzi’s established his White Clutch Guy value to the slower fans.

Comment From JJ Whoever
I’m sad I missed last week’s different colored body hair discussion. I’m a quarter Swedish, have blond hair on my head, brown on my chest, and red on my taint

Dan Szymborski: Didn’t need to know the last bit.

Comment From Allen Houston
It seems that Dexter Fowler has made it to the majority of experts’ Bust list. Are you on board with that expectation?

Dan Szymborski: It all depends on relative to what, of course. Lemme open my ZiPS fantasy rankings.

Dan Szymborski: Fowler’s averaging 66th in ADP among outfielders and ZiPS puts it at 77. So probably not a big bust, but maybe a teensy bit overrated.

Comment From J Peterman
Dan, who will and who should win the #5 spot in the Nats rotation?

Dan Szymborski: I think Jordan will win in the end, with Roark the swingman and Detwiler likely traded.

Comment From Steve
So… Angels pitching staff has looked solid so far. You think that can carry into the season?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’ll be OK, if unspectacular.

Dan Szymborski: I like the Santiago/Skaggs pickups.

Dan Szymborski: Less excited about Richards..

Dan Szymborski: Actually had Weaver in my fantasy value piece from the weekend – ZiPS has him 14th among SP, he’s going 23rd.

Comment From the Average Sports Fan
How does Zips feel about the in house SS replacement options for Detroit? Any cheap trade options you think would be good fits?

Dan Szymborski: Not Alex Gonzalez. I think it’s a disappointing fix to a disappointing bit of luck after a disappointing offseason.

Dan Szymborski: Eugenio Suarez was *likely* about 1 win, 2 at most worse than Iglesias was likely to be in 2014. I think Gonzalez, my middle expectation is 2 worse.

Comment From Jake
wRC+ is park adjusted, why not player adjusted? That is, a hit off Clayton kershaw is more impressive than a hit off Joe Saunders

Dan Szymborski: Because the marginal gain in signal isn’t likely worth the greatly increased complexity.

Comment From Gabriel
What are your thoughts on Drew Hutchison this season?

Dan Szymborski: Cautiously optimistic. He did show flashes a couple years ago.

Comment From John
Thoughts on Detroit’s trade this morning. It seems to me that Detroit continues to come back toward the back.

Dan Szymborski: Oops, meant to post both thos ecomments.

Dan Szymborski: See above.

Comment From Jake
What does a Gregarious to NYY trade look like?

Dan Szymborski: Not a huge prospect – I dont’ think the Yankees are a *great* fit, trading partner wise for Arizona

Dan Szymborski: I think people are overrating Gregorius’s trade value a bit, which I why I think he’ll end up being a role player this year in Arizona.

Comment From Eric
Why on Earth would DD trade 6 years of a likely decent utility player for Sea Bass? Is he planning on playing MLB ’14 on HOF difficulty?

Dan Szymborski: Not a fan, it’s yet another Detroit Tigers 2013-2014 move that isn’t crippling, but counterproductive and pointless.

Comment From Tony
Man that Fister trade sure looks good now. Alex Gonzalez is apparently still a person who plays the game of baseball. Who knew! Why trade a 25 UTIL for a 37 SS though?

Comment From Wholly Roman Emperor
Hey Dan. Rajas of India comes out for CK2 tomorrow. On a scale of 1-10, how stoked are you?

Dan Szymborski: Looking forward to it!

Dan Szymborski: I’m extremely happy they’re growing the map eastward – the middle eastern empires in CK2 don’t have much in the way of east pressure, which makes them overwhelm Byzantium/Georgia/Armenia a bit too quickly.

Comment From guest
Wow, a Katamari ball? How do you know what that is?

Dan Szymborski: Dan knows stuff!

Comment From Z
Rank O’s moves from best to worst: Jimenez deal, Cruz deal, Johnson trade, Valencia trade

Dan Szymborski: I think you already did.

Comment From Bobo
Do you see Robbie Ross in the Texas rotation?

Dan Szymborski: I’m inclined to think less likely than Scheppers, as it leaves them a little lefty light in the pen.

Comment From Steve
Is Xander going to be a better hitter than Andrelton this year?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, I think Bogaerts will outhit Andrelton, but the Fielding Dutchman will be better overall.

Comment From Stanatee the Manatee
Thoughts on the Cardinals choosing Kelly over Martinez as the #5 starter? I can’t say I’m surprised, but quite a few people seem shocked.

Dan Szymborski: It actually makes a bit of sense – the Cardinals are in a position where it’s better to be a little risk-averse.

Dan Szymborski: A team like the Brewers or Padres should make the opposite decision (assuming they had both those players obviously)

Comment From Z
Worst move, generally speaking, that the O’s DID NOT make this offseason?

Dan Szymborski: Not being a serious bidder in Tanaka. The offer would have been short, but they showed a casual disinterest

Dan Szymborski: But I liked the Jimenez signing quite a bit.

Dan Szymborski: Would’ve also liked to see either an extension for Wieters or a trade.

Comment From Bill
Thoughts on the O’s acquiring Lombardozzi? Is Schoop ticketed for the minors so he isn’t a free agent until after 2021 now? Thanks for the chats Dan!

Dan Szymborski: I expect it’s way more likely now.

Dan Szymborski: Sea Bass really wasn’t deserving of being more than camp filler, even though nobody told the Tigers.

Comment From Barwin Darney
What do you expect out of Jose Abreu for the 2014 season?

Dan Szymborski: One of those classic Konerko good-year-but-not-a-star ones he kept putting up.

Comment From Conrad
Yankee infield on August 1?

Dan Szymborski: Even an all-knowing God cant’ see that.

Dan Szymborski: I expect Jeter ends up playing a lot less than people think, thus foiling some of the Last Chance to See Jeter! celebration circuit.

Comment From Jake
What does a typical true platoon split look like for each batter? How often does the RHB face LHP, LHB face RHP, etc?

Dan Szymborski: Guys like Wes Helms and Ron Coomer still ended up facing 50% RHP or so, even at the strictly platoon portions of their careers.

Dan Szymborski: You got much better platoon potential back in the 50s-70s, with fewer situational relief types

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to do something like John Lowenstein now.

Dan Szymborski: Lowenstein had fewer lefty relievers and a manager willing to almost categorically refuse to play Lowenstein against lefties (Altobelli continued too)

Comment From CMR
Which team(s) will Mike Trout put up more WAR than in 2014?

Dan Szymborski: I actually think nobody. ZiPS “likes” the cellar dwellers enough that I think there’s <50% chance that Trout won’t bea t ateam.

Comment From Jake Levine
Hey Dan! Big fan. Wondering if ZiPS disc will be available via FanGraphs or the DMB Store this year! Thank You!!!

Dan Szymborski: It will be. Polishing it up now.

Comment From Jon
More risk this season– Braun or Heyward?

Dan Szymborski: Heyward actually (though I love Heyward).

Comment From Steve
Is there any way Washington doesn’t win the presidential brawl championship? I could see Jackson taking it, but still a long shot

Dan Szymborski: I think Andrew Jackson is the favorite.

Comment From Martin
Best long-term potential.Sonny Gray or Nathan Eovaldi ? How close is it ?

Dan Szymborski: I think Sonny Gray by a nose, but I really like both long-term if they refine their secondary stuff.

Comment From David
Dan, who will and who should win the #5 spot in the Padres rotation?

Dan Szymborski: With Johnson already injured, i expect Erlin to get the spot an Wisler to have dserved it

Comment From Perry
any worry about the Puig “attitude” after game two of the season? or is this a media run?

Dan Szymborski: The media is obsessed with Puig’s attitude. Everything he does will be exploded out of proportion

Comment From TB
What do the Pirates do at First? Lambo has not looked good this spring. Sanchez and ……

Dan Szymborski: I think it would be a good platoon still. Spring training performance and a sack is worth the sack.

Comment From Adam
Going crazy trying to figure out whether I should take Wright or Longoria in my 6×6 (+OPS) league. Help?

Dan Szymborski: I would take Longoria by a hair, ZiPS likes Wright by a hair. Flip a coin.

Comment From Kris
Braves in on Detwiler? Or is that whole ‘don’t trade within the division’ going to win out

Dan Szymborski: I think the whole don’t trade within the division thing is one of those bits of conventional wisdom that hold up

Dan Szymborski: I would be surprised if he’s traded to the Braves

Comment From Jake
What kind of ISO does Rollins figure shake out to in 2014, over/under .110?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be over. .120 but it wouldn’t be shocking if the power was gone for good

Comment From Kris
Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports that the White Sox have signed Jose Quintana to a five-year extension.

Dan Szymborski: Without knowing *anything* I’ll say good move, simply because historically, these pre-FA contracts have favored the team by a significant edge

Dan Szymborski: I’ll talk about this one on Twitter when I’md one here.

Comment From Nathan
James Paxton is quietly taking care of business in the Mariners camp this spring. Is it possible we could be looking at the 2014 sleeper stud of the year there (aka the Jose Fernandez award)?

Dan Szymborski: I think stud is a little crazy.

Dan Szymborski: He had a good espresso in 2013 and a godo spring, but he *was* kinda meh in the PCL.

Comment From American League Hustle
How good can Yordano Ventura be this season?

Dan Szymborski: Mooreish.

Comment From angelo
With Profar down, which of the following should I go with: A Escobar or Aybar?

Dan Szymborski: I’d be more comfortable with Aybar.

Comment From MSW
Springer’s service time dispute: What should MLB/MLBPA do so that the best players can play in the majors when they’re actually ready to perform and not when service time dictates? It’d be one thing if top players were blocked by veterans, but right now they’re only blocked by arcane contract language.

Dan Szymborski: There’s not really much they can do, so long as there is some sort of valid argument.

Dan Szymborski: Everybody “knows” that Springer is likely demoted for service time reasons

Dan Szymborski: But the Astros can argue that “he had a weak spring and has contact issues and only has half a year in AAA”

Comment From Chris
What are your realistic expectations for the O’s this season? I know Zips isn’t terribly optimistic but I want to believe there’s a chance for something more.

Dan Szymborski: Mid-80s. ZiPS is more in the 82-84 range, I’m more 84-86.

Comment From Rated Rookie
Rendon a good placeholder at 2B until Javier Baez gets called up? Assuming the Cubs play him at 2B, who is the more valuable in fantasy at that position?

Dan Szymborski: Baez is more valuable when he plays, but Rendon is a very solid placeholder.

Dan Szymborski: Though that also depends on how big your league is.

Comment From Peter
Jason Kipnis – are you buying or selling as the #2 2B and a late-second round fantasy pick?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has him #2 at 2nd. I’m inclined to agree, though sometimes in mock drafts, he’s been going a little too quickly.

Comment From Joe Btfsplk
Pirates’ luck: Taillon — hurt; Glasnow — hurt; Meadows — hurt; Holmes — TJ surgery; Lirano — hurt. Is this the beginning of the end of the Pirates, of their time as a respectable team?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll be OK.

Comment From Pork Sale
Zips loves Trumbo. Is this mainly a park factor thing, a babip thing, or something more awesome and abstract?

Dan Szymborski: Park.

Comment From EGL
In your ZIPS fantasy rankings, how does your model calculate the relative value between categories? How do you price?

Dan Szymborski: What I did was I took mock draft ADP and team % and generated 90,000 theoretical 12-man leagues.

Dan Szymborski: Then, each player was added to the starting lineup of the each of the 1.08 million teams to see how the effect on team points.

Comment From Pork Sale
How does something like “Pete Kozma made available” become news? Isn’t every replacement level guy on every team available?

Dan Szymborski: Pretty much.

Comment From (not that) James
For the season, 1) Pineda or Kluber?

Dan Szymborski: Kluber unless my team *really* needs to grab at a longshot to compete.

Dan Szymborski: Pineda’s been really good in the spring. But he’s also a guy that essentially missed 2 years with shoulder problems and was good-not-great before that.

Dan Szymborski: At last check, Pineda’s ESPN ADP was sooner than Jimenez or Wood or Porcello or Colon. That’s just too much risk.

Comment From EC
Ian Desmond not smart to turn down $90/7?

Dan Szymborski: Was it 6 or 7 years? There was some disagreement about it at the time.

Dan Szymborski: Prior to taking arbitration, ZiPS suggested a 6-year deal worth $98 million.

Dan Szymborski: ERr, prior to taking a 2 year to *avoid* arbitration

Dan Szymborski: Errr, 6/91

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS assumed 7.6, 12.1 in arbitration, 19.7, 18.7, 17.0, 15.3 in value as FA.

Comment From Barwin Darney
Dan, how do projection systems come up with defensive stats for minor league players? I assumed things like UZR and DRS aren’t calculated for minor league games, I could be wrong of course

Dan Szymborski: They are not, I have a total zone-ish thing that I’ve parsed from the detailed game logs.

Dan Szymborski: And one of my neat little tricks is I’ve done a lot of text-parsing research with scouting reports.

Comment From Bryan
Does Joakim Soria still have elite upside? Hard to believe his last elite season was 2010.

Dan Szymborski: Not sure about elite, but he’s got very good value. I just don’t think he’ll ever be the 2008-2010 guy again

Comment From Jake
After Jeter, there’s really not an everyday shortstop in the pipeline for NYY beyond Anna (who’s supposedly more of a 2B). If Gregorius doesn’t have big trade value, getting a 1-2 win regular with 5 years of team control left for cheap seems like a steal for NYY. What don’t you like about the matchup?

Dan Szymborski: The Diamondbacks are looking for ready major league pitching for Gregorius more than prospects.

Dan Szymborski: Maybe in a 3-way.

Comment From hanstone
What’s gonna happen with Gausman? Will he close if Hunter falters? Or is it O’Day first?

Dan Szymborski: I think he does end up being demoted and forces his way into the rotation sometime in May or so.

Comment From Pork Sale
What is the WAR value of a league average player? Does it vary greatly by position?

Dan Szymborski: Around 2 and replacement level is set so that average will be around there.

Comment From Ranger fan
HOW DO I MAKE THIS STOP?!

Dan Szymborski: The injuries? Nothing youc an do. Maybe sacrifice a goat. The chat, you’d rpobably have to threaten Cover it Live headquarter or something

Comment From Pork Sale
How do you feel about guys like Carlos Martinez? Great stuff, but no clear gig. Does waffling between the pen and the rotation hurt these guys?

Dan Szymborski: I think it hurts their fantasy value more than their real life value.

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I don’t mind keeping innings for a pitcher down unless he’s fully developed.

Comment From from the ATL airport
Suppose you were flying without a checked bag and the airline made you check your carry-on because the overhead bins were full. If you then proceeded to pass 10+ spots were your bag could fit (and one overhead with literally just a brief case in it), would you be angry?

Dan Szymborski: If I’m on a plane, I’m always a bit angry inside.

Dan Szymborski: I’m an experienced flyer who remains both absolutely terrified and absolutely annoyed at the hassle.

Comment From AL Pitching Coach
Can keeping Gausman out of the starting rotation be considered Baltimore’s worst move of the season to date?

Dan Szymborski: In this case, I think it will be a short-term thing.

Comment From HG Pennypacker
Your best guess on where and when Stephen Drew finds a team?

Dan Szymborski: I think he may not sign until June unless a team gets desperate. I suspect that Boras’s claim that there’s a 3/39 offer on table is a bunch of rich, creamery bullshit.

Comment From Disgruntled Tigers Fan
What’s the origin of the Sea Bass nickname?

Dan Szymborski: His teammates gave him the nickname back in Florida.

Dan Szymborski: There were multiple Alex Gonzali in the majors at the time, so I picked it up to differentiate them easily

Dan Szymborski: And I kept it out of habit.

Dan Szymborski: OK, we’re well into overtime, so this is the Ask Me Anything portion of the chat.

Comment From Fidel
Rizzo or Jose Abreu for 2014?

Dan Szymborski: Rizzo by a little bit. ZiPS has Rizzo the #10 fantasy 1B and Abreu at #13. Both are going lower than that in drafts (14, 19) so both have value depending on where you draft.

Comment From Sadwick
I still have my monet on Teddy Roosevelt. The man was basically a bear that started wearing the skin of a human he ate.

Comment From Abe Lincoln
I’m sorry, but I’ve got the reach on Jackson. Just one more Southerner for me to put in his place!

Dan Szymborski: Lincoln has the reach. Jackson has the willingness to kill people just to watch them die.

Comment From H.Villanueva
Frankling Pierce by a wide margin. Hopefully this excerpt from his Wikipedia page will help sway the masses, “The battle was disastrous for Pierce: his horse was suddenly startled during a charge, knocking Pierce groin-first against his saddle. The horse then tripped into a crevice and fell, pinning Pierce underneath and leaving him with a debilitating knee injury.[40]
He returned to his command the following day, but was in grievous pain and spent much of the time resting in back of a wagon. As the Battle of Churubusco approached, he was ordered by Scott to the rear. He responded, “For God’s sake, General, this is the last great battle, and I must lead my brigade.””

Dan Szymborski: Nobody’s questioning Pierce’s willingness to fight, but thre’s some Mr. Maggo in there.

Comment From cb
too early for odor in texas?

Dan Szymborski: Supposed to be in the 70s next week, so that’s about the point at which you hope the people sitting near your have *really* put on a generous portion of deodorant

Dan Szymborski: Since that actually wasn’t your question, I think Odor’s probably the best candidate, though he may struggle a bit.

Dan Szymborski: Middle infield depth is a pain to add this time of year.

Comment From Mikey
Can you explain a little more about “Super Two” status? I hear the term thrown around all the time, and I know it relates to service time/arbitration clock and such, but I’d like some more help understanding it.

Dan Szymborski: The standard is for players to get 3 years of arbitration.

Dan Szymborski: But

Dan Szymborski: The top 22% of players with more than two years of service time but not having reached three, also get arbitration.

Dan Szymborski: It’s done this way so that arbitration cutoff games are harder for teams to do.

Dan Szymborski: So there’s no clear-cut definite date. And if teams all start holding back players a little to not be a super-two, the date simply moves forward in the year.

Dan Szymborski: And the extra year of arbitration will disproportionately go to players that are subject to service time gains in ayear one,too

Dan Szymborski: Let’s say that the Astros call up Springer in May. He goes an extra year of free agency, but there’s a reasonable shot he’d eventually be a super-two.

Dan Szymborski: Unless the Astros are *really* patient.

Comment From Dan
About how many new projections have you done for the disk that you missed on the last go around? Hard to believe you missed anyone.

Dan Szymborski: Fewer this year. There were like 2150 in the initial go-around and I have had very few new requests since posting the spreadsheet link.

Comment From BassmanUW
Isn’t it more “if you and the team in your division are at the same stage, don’t trade within your division.” So, for example, if the Reds are competitive this year and they could really use Nate Schierholtz as the strong half of a left field platoon, a distinct possibility, there’s absolutely no reason for the Cubs to not pull the trigger on that trade.

Dan Szymborski: True, but I think it’s clear the Braves and Nats *are* at the same stage.

Comment From jay
Bud Norris graded out well according to WAR last year and ZiPS likes him well enough. But reports are that he may not even make orioles rotation. General thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: The O’s have a lot of starter options. The highs aren’t that impressive, but they’ve got very good depth.

Comment From David
How well does Alex Gonzalez have to hit for the Tigers to justify not spending the $$$ and draft pick it would take to get Drew?

Dan Szymborski: I think that’s a false comparison – Eugenio Suarez and keepign the first draft pick remains the better option than Drew.

Comment From Guest
MLBPA could not sign completely freaking stupid CBAs that give the entity that doesn’t want to pay you almost complete discretion to make sure you just miss a completely freaking stupid arbitrary threshold and don’t get paid, but.. that’ll never happen, eh?

Dan Szymborski: MLBPA should have bigger concerns, such as it essentially being ruled in arbitration that for drug penalties outside of the testing regiment, the commissioner can do whatever the @#%@# he wants.

Comment From MSW
Has Boras’ hubris finally caught up with him? Or has he angered owners so much over the years that they’re informally conspiring against his players?

Dan Szymborski: It has nothing to do with hubris really. Nobody’s conspiring against his players, it’s just that teams are rightfully deciding that in a world in which solid players fetch nine figures in free agency, those draft picks are damn valuable.

Comment From Guest
March Madness. Who you got?

Dan Szymborski: Everybody that lost.

Comment From Kev
What’s for lunch?

Dan Szymborski: Corn chips and ginger beer.

Comment From Lady Stoneheart
The noose or the sword?

Dan Szymborski: The noose. It’s the execution method that involves the most math.

Comment From Guest
Jackson took a bullet just to win a duel. And he clubbed an assassin with his cane… How can you bet against that?

Comment From Johnson
Freddie Freeman or Pujols – who you taking for ’14?

Dan Szymborski: Freeman.

Comment From Sadwick
Mimicking H.Villanueva, I cite as an example for Teddy Roosevelt’s dominance a portion of his wikipedia article.

Comment From Sadwick
“Roosevelt, as an experienced hunter and anatomist, correctly concluded that since he was not coughing blood, the bullet had not completely penetrated the chest wall to his lung, and he declined suggestions to go to the hospital immediately. Instead, he delivered his scheduled speech with blood seeping into his shirt.[125] He spoke for 90 minutes. His opening comments to the gathered crowd were, “Ladies and gentlemen, I don’t know whether you fully understand that I have just been shot; but it takes more than that to kill a Bull Moose.””

Comment From Crusty
Does Bill James go into the HoF within his lifetime, or is this one of those legacy selections 50-100 yrs from now?

Dan Szymborski: I do not believe he ever does.

Dan Szymborski: At least in our lifetimes.

Comment From Daniel Byran
Will you be watching Wrestlemania XXX?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Comment From Brienne of Tarth
“SWORD!”

Comment From RotoLando
Should I be worried about Matt Moope?

Dan Szymborski: The band that the South Park kids started in Christian Rock Hard?

Dan Szymborski: On that note, time for me to shuffle off for the week.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me, hope you can join me next week and congratulations to John Adams for defeating Franklin Pierce.

Dan Szymborski: As usual, you can find me mainly doing stuff on ESPN.com, chats and projections housed here, and DSzymborski on Twitter

Dan Szymborski: And for hte love of God, don’t keep emailing me about FanGraphs policies. I’m not involved in FG behind the scenes so I have no idea.

Dan Szymborski: I know what’s going on at ESPN.com, but I also won’t tell you, so no help there.