Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 4/24/25

Dan Szymborski: ITS PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME

Dan Szymborski: Well, may not. I never liked peanut butter and jelly. Mostly because I only like peanut butter by itself

I watch the rockies: it is “April” but is Kyle Karros better than Ryan McMahon right now?

Dan Szymborski: PROBABLY a stretch, but I don’t think the gulf is as big as the Rockies may think

Dan Szymborski: Especially if ZiPS is correct in loving his defense

Miggy: Is PCA ready for a break out?

Ben: Obviously PCA isn’t going to run a 146 wrc+ all year right? RIGHT?

Dan Szymborski: What, break out MORE than an 11-WAR pace?

Dan Szymborski: Suffice it to say, that’s not going to happen! I think

Dan Szymborski: It is nice for PCA to start getting some real attention. It’s usually his brother that gets all the attention for owning the Twins

Ethan: Which handful of stats give you the most confidence that the mets (even with regression on the pitching side) can be a 95 plus win team?

Dan Szymborski: Alonso going absolutely apeshit offensively certainly helps

Ben: Am I crazy as a Cubs fan for wanting the Cubs to go all in on a Pablo Lopez/Carlos Correa packaged deal? Maybe throw in Griffin Jax?

Dan Szymborski: No, you’re not crazy

The Oriole Bird: Is it helpful to society to have at least some number of athletes who seem like they stand only for conscientiousness and teamwork–and just avoid all other topics in their professional lives? (Think: Cal Ripken.) I think the answer is probably yes; but it is not fair to foist this on any individual player. And it does not mean every player must be judged through this as the ideal. Also these people should be understood to have real internal lives that go beyond the facade.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure it really matters much one way or the other?

Dan Szymborski: Also, Cal Ripken will be *65* this year, which absolutely blows my goddamn mind

CHRIS MAD DOG RUSSO: HEY DAN, LOVE YOUR SHOW. WHAT’S UP WITH ADLEY RUTSCHMAN? I MEAN COME ON!

Dan Szymborski: The O’s just stopped hitting since tax day or so!

Natitude Adjuster: I loved Michael Baumann’s article on Cedric Mullins. Worryingly from the Orioles’ perspective, I noticed that Ced is 3rd on the list of wOBA minus xwOBA in 2025 (min 70 PA). Thoughts on that as a brute force way to see who’s underlying performance isn’t well-matched to their actual outcomes?

Dan Szymborski: It’s not a bad way to look at it

Bruce: Is there any publicly available way to see minor league barrel rates?

Dan Szymborski: Minor League statcast search!

Dan Szymborski: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast-search-minors

Kevin: Thanks for the chat Dan.  re: CIN  best guess ranking who carves out most PT and fantasy stat relevance in 2025? McLain, Lux, Marte, Candelario.

Dan Szymborski: Same order as you!

James: Does Ryan Gusto have potential or is he a depth piece?

Dan Szymborski: He’s probably not THIS good, but he’s likely at least a good mid-bullpen guy

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS had him as a 103 ERA+ as a reliever

Dan Szymborski: now, he’s been better than that, but that he’s pitching well is SOMETHING

Trash Panda: Despite having by far the best defense according to OAA, the Cardinals are really underperforming their FIP. Is the team actually decent as they have the 9th best wRC+ as well. Bullpen is bad for sure though leading to close game losses.

The Oriole Bird: If this venerable website is to be believed–and I have no reason to think it shouldn’t be–then the following is true: “If Tyler O’Neill opts out of his contract after this year, which is his right, the Orioles’ only payroll commitment for 2026 will be a $1 million buyout of Andrew Kittredge’s club option.”  Craziness.  What should the Orioles do?

Dan Szymborski: More than they have for sure!

Dan Szymborski: As an O’s fan, I remain absolutely beside myself that they so half-assed getting a pitcher this winter

Walt: When is Mike Elias going to be fired?

Dan Szymborski: I doubt in-season, but I think he could be in trouble if the O’s finish 76-86

Dan Szymborski: or something

Dan Szymborski: Because there’s no excuse for that in win-now mode

Greg: Teams have been reluctant to sign older FA’s, even cheap ones recently. Brandon Belt last year, Mark Canha, etc.

Andrew Heaney signed in late Feb for 5.25m

Has there been an overcorrection by teams with respect to the aging curve? Is there a possible market inefficiency emerging with short term, low dollar contracts to aging guys that still have stuff in the tank?

I realize you have a counter example on the Pirates in the form of Tommy Pham, but Heaney signing for 5.25m on February 22nd seemed wild at the time and even more bananas now

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure teams are overcorrecting. Obviously, some of those cheap guys are going to work out. But a ton are not.

Phil: The other night, the Sox broadcasters mentioned that Casas was batting .000 against starters and .313 against relievers. Since then he still doesn’t have a hit off a starter and has hit two home runs off relievers. Do you know how to get this split? It doesn’t seem to be in the Fangraphs splits tool. I am wondering how this compares–it seems pretty extreme. I am also wondering of course whether there’s anything to it or it’s just small-sample weirdness.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know how to do it easily

Dan Szymborski: Like if I have the log, I can just separate out the first pitcher he faces each game

Dan Szymborski: But systematically I’m not sure

Von Hayes:

Smokin’ Jim Leyland: True/False: the Tigers have been the best team in the AL so far? Assuming “True” is your answer – seems encouraging that they are doing this with a dinged up bullpen and no Parker Meadows/Matt Vierling, no?

Dan Szymborski: True

Dan Szymborski: And yes

Dan Szymborski: The pitching has been absolutely insane

Anaheim 92806: Mike Trout is still good.  Discuss.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think that’s the question really. It’s been more about attendance

Snid: How can I erase from memory that I drafted Jordan Romano?

Dan Szymborski: No tariffs on bourbon, you know

James: Has Hunter Brown graduated to ace status?

Dan Szymborski: He’s certainly making the case

Joe: Is it possible the Orioles are just bad? If so, where the heck do they go from here?

Dan Szymborski: THIS bad? Probably not. Little has gone right for the rotation. But it was never going to be GREAT

Dan Szymborski: That’s why you see a lot of teams in the high 80s wins. They may be good, but there’s risk

Jake Mangum: How much would my projections improve if I changed my name to Jake Magnum?

Dan Szymborski: .45 WAR

Bob Loblaw: Any internal discussion around getting gambling info on this site? I can’t be the only degenerate baseball fan.

Dan Szymborski: It’s something we’ve shied away from doing

Dan Szymborski: I used to do a prop bet piece once a year at ESPN, but that’s about as far as I was willing to go

Dan Szymborski: And I think like half our full-timers are BBWAA members, and we have additional restrictions

Stephen: Feels weird to say this with his batting average being so high, but should we expect a major performance decline from Goldschmidt going forward? xwOBA looking pretty ugly

Dan Szymborski: I think so. BABIP is far stickier for hitters than pitchers, but Goldy is certainly NOT a near .500 BABIP guy

Dan Szymborski: nobody is

Oaktown Blues: Shea Langeliers is running a dramatically reduced K rate compared to his career. How big does the sample have to be for that to be meaningful?

Dan Szymborski: It already is

Dan Szymborski: as it’s supported by contact info

I thought it was Chili time: Hi Dan!  Ryan Walker’s last couple of outings not so bueno.  Just a rough stretch? and how much leash?

Dan Szymborski: not worried yet

Guest: Are the Dodgers mediocre? A run differential of a barely over 500 team and a lot of their wins came against cellar dwellers like the Braves and Rockies.

Dan Szymborski: No. I think people were too crazy about them — they didn’t have an over/under of 105 or something crazy — but they’re still an excellent team

Guest: Needing saves: Jordan Leasure, Hunter Gaddis, Will Vest, Jesus Tinnoco are the only viable FAs? What order?  Who do I drop? Tony Santillain, Matt Strahm, Jeremiah Estrada?  Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: oh dear lord

Dan Szymborski: OK, I just saw leasure first

Dan Szymborski: I’d be most interested in Vest for sure

Dan Szymborski: Gaddis is good and Cleveland up in the air, but you’re also betting against Clase’s shoulder

Dan Szymborski: if you have to drop one of those three, Santillan is probably the one I like least

30fwar: If Judge gets .5 fwar in his next 29 PA he’ll have 30fwar in his last 2,000 PA (start of 2022). .5 in like 5 games is hard for humans but he’s literally putting up .1 per game right now

steve: Do you think Reese Olson can be a strong mid-tier starter or is there more upside here?

Dan Szymborski: I think good 2/3 guy, but I’m not sure that he really has that ace type upside

Mike Elias: What are some realistic actions I should take to right the ship?

Dan Szymborski: It might involve a time machine, which is a problem

Dan Szymborski: And you have to be really careful altering history because unexpected things happen

Laura: Prefer Jelly sandwich. Any updates on R Anthony since info about sore shoulder?

Laura: Any new news about R Anthony?Only playing DH due to shoulder soreness is all I’ve read. I prefer Jelly sandwich.

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t heard anything NEW though I was under the impression that it was getting better and he’d be back in the OF before too long

Nate: Was the rumor of MASN+ charging people $8999 instead of $89.99 true?

Dan Szymborski: First I heard of it, so no idea!

Dan Szymborski: Though as someone who keeps $0 balances, that kind of thing is scary!

Brandon Hyde: Rank the following ideas for giving us a jolt right now: release Mateo & call up Mayo, challenge trade Mayo or Heston or a package for Zebby Matthews, go all in for Alcantara or Pablo Lopez, grab an Old Dude like Heaney. Or something else??!!

Dan Szymborski: Probably Alcantara

Dan Szymborski: I like Zebuliferous, but I’m not sure I want to trade Mayo or Kjerstad for him

Dan Szymborski: I still frequently accidentally call him Keston Hjerstad about 10% of the time still, BTW

Tacoby Bellsbury: It’s April!

Zach: Is Rutschman a bust?

Dan Szymborski: no

Randy: Thoughts on Kurtz early callup?

Dan Szymborski: He was destroying AAA despite almost no professional experience, how coudl they NOT

War2d2: Hi Dan! I punted 2B in my h2h 5×5 draft and now I’m regretting it because my SS also turned into an unintentional punt. I floated Kyren Paris for as long as I could but I’m flailing now. I have Lux in there now, but L. Acuna, Torres, India, and Rafaela are all on the wire (mostly for good reason). Any advice for who is most likely to break out (into an avg player)?

Dan Szymborski: India is at least interesting at times

Guest: Math sanity (read: stupidity) check: in a sample of 13 hitters, is there a 50/50 chance that 1 of them hits their 92nd percentile projection over some sample?

Dan Szymborski: 66% chance of at least one of 13 hitters hitting their 92nd percentile

Dan Szymborski: 49% for one of eight hitters

Dan Szymborski: 53% for one of nine hitters

Dan Szymborski: 1-0.92^dudes

Bob Loblaw: Do you think Shedeur Sanders drops out of the first round?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s a second rounder

Judge: His xwoba is higher than his two 11fwar seasons. How is he still doing this

Dan Szymborski: judicial supremacy

David Stearns: Maybe we should stop questioning David Stearns and the way he puts together pitching staffs?

Dan Szymborski: He’s certainly making that case!

The Oriole Bird: Don’t look now, but Jackson Holliday’s wRC+ = 99!  (0 WAR, though.)

Fried Rice: In 2030, the top 5 hitting 1b will be…….

Dan Szymborski: May be someone not in the league yet

Dan Szymborski: Preseason, ZiPS had Top five first baseman in 2030 as Vlad, Eldridge, Manzardo, Isaac, and Busch

Dan Szymborski: but the error range here is obviously HUGE

Aaron Judge: Best clean hitter of integration era?

Dan Szymborski: If you count amphetamines as not being clean, it may very well be Judge

Dan Szymborski: If you don’t disqualify because of amphetamines, then Bonds

Dan Szymborski: And before someone says it, no, Fay Vincent didn’t ban steroids in his memo. Even he didn’t think he did. His memo basically banned Pat Gillick or Dave Dombrowski from using steroids.

Bing Bong: Which of your colleagues would you least want to get into a physical altercation with? No rules. Which one would you most want to fight?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not going to say the second, because that would totally be hostile work environment!

Dan Szymborski: The first one, Jay, because you should never be dumb enough to pick a fight with someone who has great mustache

Dan Szymborski: A mustache can add as many 75 pounds of pure muscle to your projection

Dan Szymborski: Me, if I shave my beard and leave a mustache, I look like Gacy. So no mustache

Oaktown Blues: Who do you think ends the year as the A’s WAR leader? I feel like Rooker, Butler, Wilson, Soderstrom, and Langeliers are all possibilities

Dan Szymborski: I’d put my (theoretical) money on Rooker

Mustaches for everyone!: In which order do the following players retire?  Trout, Freeman, Giancarlo, Kershaw, Goldy, Sale

Dan Szymborski: Kershaw, Godly, Sale, Giancarlo, Freeman, Trout

Chucky: The O’s problem is not only their lack of pitching. Their lineup is an east coast version of the Rockies. And besides the O’s might have skated by not resigning Burnes, who’s looked anything but impressive.

Dan Szymborski: the Rockies WISH they had a 106 wRC+

Pete Alonso new approach: Given how Pete Alonso’s Baseball Savant page is resembling peak Juan Soto, and a lot of the metrics that tend to be “sticky” are showing such dramatic improvement, is there now reason to believe he’ll age much more gracefully than previously thought? I highly doubt the improvements to his approach will suddenly disappear, and his natural power is so insanely high (just look at that double on a pitcher’s pitch) that it would need to fall very far to even approach average

Dan Szymborski: I’m definitely interested in seeing the ZiPS in-season update when it’s ready

Dan Szymborski: I have a batch run going now

Honey Nut Chourios: How worried should we be about Chourio’s plate discipline and walk rate?

Dan Szymborski: moderately. he does enough things that he can have awful plate discipline and still be good, but it limits his upside

Bobby Jenkins: 49.8% odds for the padres to make the playoffs? Hobbled and still top of the NL West. Where’s the gap?

Dan Szymborski: A lot can happen in five months

Dan Szymborski: Remember, preseason projections are better predictors of *next* year’s record than the actual record of the intervening season

Dan Szymborski: (meaning that you would expect 2025 preseason projections, with no knowledge of any roster things or anything at all that happened in 2025, to still be a slightly better predictor of 2026 record than actual 2025 record)

Reds Enjoyer: Taking his contract into account, how long is Jeimer Candelario’s leash? I mean the guy is just unwatchable right now…

Dan Szymborski: A LOT longer than warranted, but even the Reds have limits

GCM Stanton: I find the ubiquitous gambling (ads and otherwise) kind of icky.  And I don’t even thing I’m a fuddy duddy.  I just wonder if it is the exploitation of multiple bundled human flaws for small private gain.  I don’t know a way out.  Just my gut.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not personally a fan of gambling (though I have no issue with legality, out of the principle)

Danfango: Yay or nay on Abundance by Klein and Thompson?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t read it yet (I did read Fight though!), but I’m an abundance Georgist, if that makes sense

robertobeers@gmail.com: A man, a Dan, a chat, innumerable cats, tacelbaremunnitahcanadanama

bringbackpologrounds: Is Altuve good at LF (Total Zone), average (Statcast), or ghastly (DRS)?

Dan Szymborski:

Derek: What would Zips put a James Wood extension at right now? How many more 115 mph dingers will it take for him to get a 60+ homer projection (kidding, kind of).

Dan Szymborski: saving that one for my inevitable extensions piece

Lord Thunder: What’s longer odds … Luis Robert Jr. staying healthy enough to play in 120 games this season or hitting .250?

Dan Szymborski: .250

Dan Szymborski: eyeballing it, I think he has to hit .like .270 now to finish at .250

Dan Szymborski: And he’s played in 22/24 games, so he only needs to play 98 of 138, which is more liely I think

Nate: https://www.wbaltv.com/article/sports-masn-plus-launches-some-subscrib…

Dan Szymborski: oof

Guest: Dan, I need help. Got into a bidding war for Wheeler, have him at 46 salary in a 300-cap 10 team league. Considering dropping him for Webb at 31 salary to give me some much needed flexibility, and since Webb looks so good, but I’m struggling to pull the trigger. Any words of encouragement?

Dan Szymborski: at that price diff, I prefer Webb

Von Hayes: that chat app reads “Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 4/24/24” but it is 2025

Dan Szymborski: BUT IS IT?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not looking forward to the presidential election this fall. Trump vs. Biden will be a trainwreck!

Dan Szymborski: Wouldn’t it be crazy if Ohtani went 40/40 this year?

Dan Szymborski: Man, all the Astros starters are injured right now

Dr J: Are long rough patches at the beginning of the season common for players under 30 players with proven track records for excellence… thinking Yordan here….

Dan Szymborski: Voros law! Anyone can hit anything in 75 AB

Pitching Wo’s: Should the Orioles pick up Ian Anderson? Is there a reason not to try anyone on the waiver wire, starting pitching wise?

Dan Szymborski: The O’s are in throw crap at wall territory

Dan Szymborski: plus, the O’s don’t have any good flautists right now, as far as I can tell

John: Fill in the blank: Roman Anthony is the ___ best major league hitter in the Red Sox organization right now.

Dan Szymborski: _fab_best

Guest: thoughts on Anthony volpe

Dan Szymborski: for some reason, broadcasters don’t really pronounce the v with much emphasis, so I frequently do a double-take because it sounds like someone jusid that “Pulpy” is coming up to the plate

D: I noticed that the depth charts pages have teams that are projected for 40+ additional WAR this season but the playoff odds pages are much less optimistic. For example, the Rangers DC has them with 40.2 more WAR, which would be around 92 wins, but the playoff odds page projects them for 85.

Dan Szymborski: Depth charts tend to be really optimistic about playing tiem for currently healthy players

Mind Blown: Remember, preseason projections are better predictors of *next* year’s record than the actual record of the intervening season(meaning that you would expect 2025 preseason projections, with no knowledge of any roster things or anything at all that happened in 2025, to still be a slightly better predictor of 2026 record than actual 2025 record)

Mind Blown: I feel like I just took the blue pill

Dan Szymborski: Now, I’ve only tested ZiPS

Dan Szymborski: but I expect the other systems woudl do this as wel

Dan Szymborski: recency bias is MASSIVE

Dan Szymborski: People are always like “projections aren’t quick enough to move!” but typically, they’re not looking at the actual data

Dan Szymborski: I updated this last year

Dan Szymborski: Take Year 1 preseason projection, Year 1 actual record, and year 2 actual record

Dan Szymborski: Year 1 preseason projection has an average absolute error of 54 points of win percentage when projecting actualy year 2 win percentage

Dan Szymborski: Year 1 actual record has an AAV of 59 points of win percentage when projecting year 2 actual record

Dan Szymborski: This is a little old, from 2023

Dan Szymborski:

D: You and ZIPS really nailed the Crochet extension. When you run these, do you figure in any kind of discount the team taking on extra risk by picking up arb years before they have to? Or is it pretty much straight projected value for each year, based on arb/FA?

Dan Szymborski: projected value. the hope is that ZiPS is accurately capturing the downside risk!

Section 34: Are the O’s already toast this year? It kinda feels like it. One more year of Adley/Gunnar gone.

Dan Szymborski: They’re not toast yet, but those little orange heating lines are orange

David: Saw the update to Minor league numbers like WRC+; does this impact any of your minor league ZIPS stuff or is that not directly incorporated

Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS already has minor league and park data going all the way back

Dan Szymborski: My actual minor league park factors go back to 1991, I believe

Dan Szymborski: (it’s somewhere around 1991)

Alan: Dan, I know you have been critical of the Reds signing Emilio Pagan last year.  Interested to hear what your thoughts are regarding how they are using him this year.

Dan Szymborski: I mean, so far so good this year, but we’re talking three weeks of a reliever, so April goes extra for all

Fildear?: MLB Network’s template writes “Fildear” instead of “Fielding”.  As a rhetoric prof this drives me insane.  Or is “Fildear” a thing now that I’ll just have to live with?

Dan Szymborski: I didn’ see that!

Now that’s just crazy talk: Will we see an Orioles/Rockies World Series within the next 10 years?

Dan Szymborski: No

Dancin’ Dan Devours Dense Doughnuts: Not sure who to ask, but do you know why there is no xwOBA available for minor league player pages on Fangraphs?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually know. Perhaps we don’t pay for that number?

Tacoby Bellsbury: A month into the season, what have your cats’ biggest improvements been? Are they sustainable?

Dan Szymborski: Well, Mercutio is getting a bit more senile every year so not him

Dan Szymborski: Justinian’s gotten out of the habit of going under my desk and accidentally stepping on the switch of the surge protector while he’s down there, so I’ll call that the biggest improvement, but I don’t know if it’s sustainable

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: If Altuve never makes it to 3000 hits, will anyone ever again?

Dan Szymborski: yes

Ben Rice: What’s Ben Rice ROS wRC+? Don’t even fire up zips, just throw a number out

Dan Szymborski: His ROS wRC+ refers to his rest of season wRC+. ROS is just an abbreviation.

Dan Szymborski: (trying to trick me, hmmph)

Guest: Would ZiPS be able to project the likelihood of a reliever successfully transitioning to a starter?

Dan Szymborski: I do have that! ZiPS actually projects everyone as a full time starter and reliever

Dan Szymborski:

Fildear?: Fildear for weeks

What’s for lunch?: and do you get free merch from minor or major league teams?  If so, what’s your favorite?

Dan Szymborski: I would not accept any free merchandise from an affiliated professional team

Dan Szymborski: though I will take complimentary food in the press box!

Dan Szymborski: on that note, it’s time for me to ehad out for another week

Dan Szymborski: thanks for coming y’all

Dan Szymborski: (Sorry, I guess being from Maryland makes me not southern enough to say y’)

Dan Szymborski: SHOW ME TO A CHAIR LUNCH DINNER