Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/12/14

Dan Szymborski: And heeeeeeeeeer come the pretzels.

Dan Szymborski: First off, our off-topic business, the Electoral Brawllege.

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Comment From Chris
Hey, Dan. After five straight seasons of playing 150 games or more, is Ryan Braun officially now an injury-risk player? If so, should I consider dealing him when he returns and puts up a couple of good weeks. And what should I ask for him?

Dan Szymborski: It’s probably a little premature to call him an injury risk player.

Dan Szymborski: He’s not a great trade target, simply because I think he was a little underrated due to the Biogenesis suspension.

Dan Szymborski: If you can fill a more pressing need with another top 20 guy, you go for it, but else, I hang onto him.

Comment From Awake in Seattle
Hi Dan. Hope you had a great weekend. I know you’re probably getting sick of Brad Miller questions, but I hope you’ll still answer this one. A week has passed since you held your last chat, and in that time, would you say that Miller has become less or more likely to be AAA-bound? Thanks for humouring us obsessed Miller owners!!!

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s getting more likely, espeially as the Mariners have been kind of hanging on in the race a bit since the division’s been shuffling a bit.

Dan Szymborski: And it’s not like the difference between Miller player as expected and Franklin playing as expected is massive – given the choice of similar players (though Miller probably better defensively), Mariners in a pennant race may just go with the one who’s playing better

Comment From Jon
How do you see the LA outfield logjam playing out? Is Pederson playing every day by the all star break?

Dan Szymborski: I just can’t see Pederson getting full-time play this year in the majors.

Dan Szymborski: If we’re in July and the Dodgers are still looking up at Rockies and Giants, I think he’s in a new uniform.

Comment From Guest
Is Chris Tillman injured? Velocity seemed down yesterday.

Dan Szymborski: Was it? It looked more sloppy to me than missing velocity. Checking brooksbaseball to see if you’re right

Dan Szymborski: No, his velocity was about where it was though down from both last year and from the first two slots

Dan Szymborski: first two *starts*

Comment From James
Hi Dan, probably your biggest fan currently in Prague

Dan Szymborski: In Szymborski-likeness or size?

Comment From Dan
Have you seen Evan Marshall? Looks filthy but didn’t get a zips. What say it?

Dan Szymborski: I have not seen him pitch this year. In the past, he’s been a fastball/slider guy who was more a thrower than a pitcher

Comment From RotoCurious
Thoughts on E Volquez? Drop Jenry for him?

Dan Szymborski: We’ve seen more Normal Edinson Volquez last few starts, so I stay away from him. Mejia at least has upside.

Comment From anz
I figured a power drop-off was coming for Cano, but do you see him as a top 3 2B ROS? Somewhat related, will B Miller stabilize?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, he’s just had a bad start. Miller will be fine, but I don’t know if it’ll be in time to save his 2014 job.

Dan Szymborski: Cano that is for the first sentence.

Comment From Eminor3rd
DO you like Dave Cameron’s idea to play three one inning games in a night? http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Dan Szymborski: Maybe for an exhibition showcase, but I like baseball the way it is mostly.

Comment From Graham
How worried are you about the spike in Mike Trout’s strikeout rate?

Dan Szymborski: Not very. It’s concerning, but he’s never really been a Tony Gwynn contact type. Trout came into the season expressing that he was going to be more aggressive and I think we’re seeing it, though the results are mixed.

Comment From Guest
Will Alex Guerrero be called with J Uribe on the shelve?

Comment From Szymazing!
If Uribe hits the DL, we’re looking at a Figgins/Turner platoon aren’t we? Any chance of Hanley to 3rd, Dee to SS and a Guerrero call up? …didn’t think so 🙁

Dan Szymborski: Related questions! I don’t expect the Dodgers to be too fancy with replacing Uribe if he goes on the DL – it’ll be retroactive and it’s not expected to be serious.

Dan Szymborski: So muddling through with what they have seems to be the most likely course, I think.

Dan Szymborski: Though perhaps it’s like Bryce Harper case in which news leaked that it was more serious around chat time and I hadn’t seen it but you guys ad

Comment From Chappy
Remember Iron Eagle?

Dan Szymborski: I was born in 1978, of course I do.

Comment From Paul
how long is the leash on Tommy Hunter? Buck may be better served throwing Britton out there the way he is pitching! O’Day seems more like the set up guy to me.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not endless, but his peripherals aren’t bad — though the O’s may not actually care about that — but the O’s bullpen is not super deep and the team doesn’t like over-tinkering if things are going well

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll be conservative about replacing Hunter with Britton

Comment From Tony G.
Between Juan Francisco and CJ Cron, do you think that either can/will play well enough to become a full-time starter?

Dan Szymborski: Not really. Francisco’s a good role player and Chris Cron’s not going to make you jump.

Comment From Dan
Also, is Joey Gallo’s Zips OPS+ over 100 with his early start? Curious who some MiLB’ers who might have helped their zips the most thusfar. Betts? Gallo? Polanco?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have a setup to automatically run in-season minor leagues on the fly, but if you ask me on Twitter, I can give better answer.

Comment From Benji
Jose Reyes legit again?

Dan Szymborski: He’s fine. Even missing like 3 months last year, he had his usual Jose Reyes season.

Comment From Ron
Hey-O. Any idea on how long A-Ram is going to be out & how the hammy will impact his ROS #s. Brew Crew on a roll & they need his bat.

Dan Szymborski: Last I heard, it’s not expected to be a long-term issue.

Comment From Jay
Hi Dan, what are your thoughts towards defensive shifts in the infield , from an advanced stats perspective and the game itself? Seems many teams are using it at the wrong times.

Dan Szymborski: It’s a good use of data – teams are very conservative about mixing things up.

Dan Szymborski: Now, these things tend to be cyclical – someone makes an adjustment, but the other guys adjust, and so on.

Comment From ashtray
Keuchel is sporting some great numbers (65% GB, 40/10 K /BB, etc). Is this guy for real?

Dan Szymborski: His periphs weren’t even all that bad last yera.

Dan Szymborski: His stuff isn’t all that exciting, though he does change speeds well. He could be league-average for awhile.

Comment From Nolan
People love to talk about the bone-headed trades Kevin Towers has made, yet the one looking the most bone-headed is usually left out: Ian Kennedy for Joe Thatcher. Kennedy looks like the guy who almost won a CY Young, and Thatcher is still a LOOGY. That’s the trade that should get a guy fired, right?

Dan Szymborski: Kennedy’s been solid, though Petco really inflates it. I still think he’s more the pitcher he was in 2010 and 2012.

Dan Szymborski: Now, Kennedy was on my list of fantasy draft undervalues, so I’m not exactly weeping that he’s playing well though!

Comment From Ghost Hands
In a full on dynasty what type of return would you expect for Kris Bryant?

Dan Szymborski: That’s really going to be league-specific depending on your exact dynasty rules. I’d try to hang onto him, honestly.

Comment From Szymazing!
If Middlebrooks hits the DL, do we see more of Brock Holt? He’s been playing SS in Pawtucket to widen his utility aspect… worthy in deep points leagues?

Dan Szymborski: I expect Brock Holt! to be more useful in real life than fantasy. Fantasy-wise, unless it’s an incredibly deep league, he’s fantasy replacement fodder, even if he sneaks more time.

Comment From LaLoosh
is trading Mookie Betts now a thing which will doubtlessly be discussed in every chat for the next year? in relation to Giancarlo Stanton and otherwise…

Dan Szymborski: Possibly. Some questions keep coming up so I eventually have to stop answering them.

Dan Szymborski: Like When Will Gregory Polanco be Called Up? is on its 6th week I think

Comment From Gibby
What are your thoughts on Jesse Chavez & Eovaldi this season; who’s more likely to be effective in August/Sept, assuming their teams are in the hunt?

Dan Szymborski: Eovaldi – he’s always had better stuff and we’ve just been waiting for the results to reflect.

Comment From Szymazing!
I recently traded for Adam Eaton, didn’t give up much, but should I be worried about his up and coming “injury track record” risk?

Dan Szymborski: At least slightly. He’s not on the Eric Davis List yet, but at the very least, you should probably think of him as a 130-140 game guy rather than an ever single day guy.

Dan Szymborski: And adjust your expectations accordingsly

Comment From Garrett
Carlos Santana – still elite BB rate, but other than that has been close to worthless this year. Extremely BABIP unlucky, or something more at play here?

Dan Szymborski: Bah, making me fire up the xbabip calculator.

Dan Szymborski: Blame Garrett for the wait! I get a .259 xBABIP for Santana, so he has been down but also unlucky.

Dan Szymborski: He’s got a .161 BABIP. Unless he’s playing by hopping on a non-amputated leg, that’s never an ability.

Dan Szymborski: *Pitchers* average BABIPs in the .220-.230 range.

Comment From Paul
God Damnit, I have Brad Miller, pull some of your Mariners strings and make sure he keeps playing and stops sucking. MILLLLLLLLLLLLLLLER, So pissed at Eno. lol

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have strings.

Dan Szymborski: With opposing pitchers, at least!

Comment From SMC
What about Pederson for Utley? Makes sense for both sides.

Dan Szymborski: From a playing standpoint, it makes some sense (though the Dodgers would then have to figure out what to do with Guerrero), but the realities on the ground would prevent this from happening.

Comment From RK
Please predict the date we get our first meaningful trade.

Dan Szymborski: 6/1

Comment From Ancient Astronaut Theorist
Dickerson can hit. Does he find a way to get into the Rockies everyday line up without assaulting two of the incumbent starters?

Dan Szymborski: I can’t see a way of him getting into the lineup regularly this year, short of injureis and Blackmon not just plummeting to earth, but going through to the molten core.

Comment From Your Boss
Can you talk a bit about Justin Morneau’s bid for Comeback Player of the Year? Does he have platoon splits or will be keep it up against 3 lefties this week?

Dan Szymborski: It’s nice to see him doing well, though I expect him to come back to earth somewhat.

Comment From Snid
Any need to hold onto Broxton? 10 tm 5×5

Dan Szymborski: If he’s not getting saves, he’s not that itneresting.

Comment From Chicago Mark
Hey Dan, Who do you see signing Kendrys Morales and Stephen Drew? How soon after the draft do we see them signed? Thanks

Dan Szymborski: I think they sign first couple weeks of June. Mets have more of a reason to revisit Drew.

Dan Szymborski: Morales location a little trickier.

Comment From hhh
Is there a alternative to MPH? The ball doesn’t travel anywhere near a mile and it seems like there are other things that would be more important like how much time elapses between when the ball leaves the pitchers hand (or when spin is discernible to the batter) and when the ball crosses the plate. Any thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure what the urgency to replace it is – people understand MPH and have long frames of references for MPH among other major leaguers.

Comment From Jason
Royals appear to be about to send Mike Moustakas down. Is it okay to officially call him a bust?

Dan Szymborski: He’s getting there, though to be honest, he was never a complete hitter as a prospect.

Comment From Chris
I’ve been holding onto to Andrelton Simmons in hopes he’ll heat up. Meanwhile, shortstops like Jimmy Rollins sit on the waiver wire and are putting up much better stats. If it weren’t for Simmons’ absurdly low strikeout numbers, I would have dropped him by now. Should I cut bait or stick it out?

Dan Szymborski: I’d hang onto him.

Comment From Jerry
Mark Teixiera is looking like he’s back to beast mode. If yanks manage his health best they can – think he’s capable of a 30 hr/100rbi season with .265 and low k-counts?

Dan Szymborski: He is, which is pretty important to the Yanks as they went into the season with a really good shot at getting *nothing* from the infield

Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
In August, Samardzija will be pitching for the ____.

Dan Szymborski: 26th time for the season.

Dan Szymborski: Cheating? I think he’s in the AL West somehow.

Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
What does Chase Headley get in free agency? Was there an extension figure he turned down two years ago that he will regret??

Dan Szymborski: He won’t hit 6 figures due to his age, but he’ll get $15 million a year I think. Did the Padres have a specific extension offer? I can’t remember one other than general talks, but my memory is know to fail

Comment From Gary
Do you see Xander turning this season around? Those tulowitzki comps looking absolutely laughable so far. Still capable of 75/15/75/10 .280 this year?

Dan Szymborski: That wasn’t a projection that he would play like Tulowitzki

Comment From RIPLASTFM
Five days a week my roommate uses the microwave for up to 10-15 minutes just after 7 PM EST, meaning I miss the start of many baseball games. A wired connection is not an option, what should I do?

Dan Szymborski: Ever see Misery?

Dan Szymborski: What the hell is he microwaving for 15 minutes?

Dan Szymborski: Is your microwave an easy-bake oven?

Comment From Beavis
Close the poll! Clinton is at 69%… Heh heh. 69.

Comment From Cals Pal
Chris Davis. He’s back, looks strong. Think he can still finish the year with 35+hr and 100-110rbi?

Dan Szymborski: 30/80 seems more likely. He *could* hit 35, but he’s a little off the pace to go 100-110.

Comment From Bo
Re: Uggla, does someone in the Braves org just not understand sunk costs?

Comment From benj
Am I crazy or is Jonathan Villar going to be more valuable than Bogaerts for the rest of the year.

Dan Szymborski: Well, it *could* happen – there’ sa lot of uncertainty, but money’s still on Bogaerts.

Comment From Slobert
Is Houston doing long term damage to their brand by being on pace for their 4th 100 lose season in a row? Shouldn’t Jeff Luhnow manage to eek out a few more wins?

Dan Szymborski: The long term damage was done long, long ago. They literally had nothing to work with.

Comment From Baseball
Is Chris Archer better than this? .345 BABIP this year, the rest of his numbers look similar to last year, maybe he was just luckier last year? Thoughts on him moving forward?

Dan Szymborski: He’s definitely better than this, though I think people got a little too much on his bandwagon last year.

Comment From Enos Cabel
Is Springer going to figure this out or are we looking at the new Chris Young?

Dan Szymborski: I think people shouldn’t panic so much about a few weeks of play. He’s never going to hit for a high average or anything (nor was he expected to, but he should be fine)

Dan Szymborski: Got a lot of questions on whether people should give up on Springer last week, which is just silly

Comment From Lady
Do you think Rafael Montero will be good if he steps in for the ole mets?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be OK, his command has been a little spotty at times. I’m not a Mets fan, so I’m not eternally primed for self-immolation.

Comment From Lars
Teams need to use chocolate whipped cream for the face smearing. It’s one of the best kept secrets of the dessert world.

Comment From RSF
Cueto has now given up 7 HR and 10 total ER. That is absurdly unsustainable, right?

Dan Szymborski: His BABIP looked like an Adam Dunn BA at last check, so yes.

Dan Szymborski: Just checked. .160. Yeah, that’s not going to persist.

Comment From puget
Could Chris Taylor trump Brad Miller and Nick Franklin as Seattle’s shortstop of the near future?

Dan Szymborski: He could, but honestly I don’t think he’s as good a 2014 candidate as the other two, even though he’s played very well

Comment From STiVo
ZiPS seems much more optimistic on the Orioles’ playoff chances than Fangraphs. Might this be due to the projected playing times that FG uses? Anything else?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know the nitty-gritty of the FG method – Steamer may have differing results than ZiPS. I use the schedule and uncertainty as to the abilities of the team as well.

Dan Szymborski: One thing that’s likely giving it a boost is that ZiPS likes the O’s rotation depth.

Comment From Alex
How much of run scoring do sabermatricians chalk up to fortunate sequencing? Is there any evidence that batters performing better with RISP is an inherent skill?

Dan Szymborski: There’s little evidence of a repeated, significant pattern of performing better with RISP

Comment From Kyle
Does Bill sleep with Harrison’s wife before hand to psych him out? Can I combine Clinton’s peak sexual abilities with his peak fighting abilities to over take WHH?

Dan Szymborski: Follow your heart.

Comment From Drake
Is there a reason you don’t post the “player comp” as it relates to ZIPS on the player pages? Specifically Xander. I’d love to keep seeing he’s a future Tulo while he isn’t. Because Tulo seems real good right!? haha. Xander – think it’s real?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not involved in designing the FanGraphs player pages.

Dan Szymborski: And the comp is simply the top recent comp of a large group of similar players. It’s not meant to be, nor has ever been presented as, the expectation of what a player will do in the future.

Comment From Farting for Science
Where on the scale of injury harm is Belt’s thumb-screw surgery?

Dan Szymborski: Any time a hitter has something bad happen to hand or wrist, I take it very seriously.

Comment From Os Nos
Is time to move on from Mike Moustakas? Even if the BABIP improves, will it improve enough to make him a viable starting 3B?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think I had him as viable in anything but deep leagues even before the sucky April/May

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, in my preseason fantasy rankings, I had him 25th, below Chisenhall and Plouffe and above Freese and Asche.

Dan Szymborski: And suffice it to say, there’s nothing he’s done this season to make him *more* appealing!

Comment From Gary
Oscar Taveras=Delmon Young? Seriously look at their stats at the same levels and prospect rankings and it’s a dead ringer.

Dan Szymborski: I think you’re going overboard with the micro-comps.

Dan Szymborski: Young was an amazingly accomplished hitter in his teens and showed early promise. Lots of players that turn out far better than Young share these attributes.

Comment From Robo
So I just looked at the big version of your Presidents’ bracket. Wake me up for the inevitable Jackson-Teddy bloodbath. (Great 1 seeds by the way obviously I’m going chalk).

Dan Szymborski: The Washington 2 seed was a little controversial.

Comment From LaLoosh
hard to conclude that Dickerson is real until there is bigger out of Coors sample, frankly.

Comment From Just Haranging Around
IS DOmonic Brown finally drop-able. He has shown 0 signs of improvement and is a black-hole in my OF

Dan Szymborski: Depends on who the other options are.

Comment From baltic fox
Is a Wieters for Joc Pederson and Ellis trade possible? Pederson would fill a gaping hole in the OF while Wieters (when healthy) would add another bat to a team that has championship aspirations.

Dan Szymborski: Interesting at least, but I doubt this will be talked about.

Comment From Maxamuz

Dan Szymborski: A few more and then time to go.

Comment From Paul
.265 from Teixeira? He is hitting that now, but I can’t see him keeping that up. I say .245, 28 dingers and 81 ribbies if he is healthy. That .265 seems way high for me unless he gets incredibly lucky

Dan Szymborski: He’ll get the homers, but I do expect his BA to fade a bit.

Comment From Benji
They offered Chase Headley something like 3 years 39 million Dan

Dan Szymborski: Ouch.

Comment From McC
What is the delicious lunch drink du jour?

Dan Szymborski: Root beer. Nothing alcoholic as I was on the phone talking business at 11 AM and have a steroid piece to finish

Comment From TJ
What do you expect from Matt Kemp for the rest of the year? If he’s healthy I don’t understand why he’s not a superstar right now.

Dan Szymborski: I’m getting less optimstic about seeing superstar Matt Kemp again.

Dan Szymborski: At his best, he leveraged his physical tools to the hilt.

Dan Szymborski: But when not at that level, he’s got holes in his game.

Comment From Lewie
How come people don’t talk about Jose Reyes like they do Tulo? They’ve produced pretty similar value despite different skill sets.

Dan Szymborski: They have? Tulo’s got what, 15-20 points of OPS+ on Reyes and better defense. Reyes speed doesn’t make up for that. Reyes is a very good player, but Tulo is a great one.

Comment From Ballpark Frank
Who would you take in a fight held in Colorado, Tulo or Godzilla?

Dan Szymborski: Tulo. He exists.

Comment From Nick Noheart
Who should be closing for the Indians?

Dan Szymborski: Allen. I think the “closer-by-committee” talk is just to let Axford save a little face. I think Allen takes control of the role fairly quickly

Comment From ar
you think singleton is an september call up at this point?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. Before that even, I think. He’s done as much as anybody can to wash the bad taste of 2013 out.

Comment From WHH
Mike Trout, Harper, Machado, etc were the worst things to happen to these chats. Everybody expects rookies to come up and put up absurd numbers and if they dont, then they are a bust and everybody panics

Comment From zoorzles
Completely ignoring the “will the doubles turn into homers” thing, what’s Manny Machado’s power peak look like? For a guy who got a lot of A-Rod lite comps when he was drafted, this part of his game seems to get overlooked

Dan Szymborski: Strikes me as a 20-25-homer guy in his peak. Don’t see him being a huge HR guy.

Dan Szymborski: For some reason, when I think of Machado’s prime, a line like Dickie Thon’s the year before he got plunked comes to mind.

Comment From the Average Sports Fan
Think Odor sticks? Or is this just a short term thing until Profar is healthy?

Dan Szymborski: He’ll make decisions tricky at some point, but he’s not sticking this year.

Comment From Steve
Congratulate me. The day before Belt went down, I shipped him off for Moss. 🙂

Dan Szymborski: YOU INJURED BRANDON BELT

Comment From Jonathan
Zack Greinke, hall of very good?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll have a reasonable Hall case that none of the voters will care about because OMG TEH WINS~!

Comment From Chappy
Rizzo hitting lefties this year. Will he be a top 5 1B like Eno boldly predicted?

Dan Szymborski: I have a history of liking Rizzo, but top 5 a little aggressive for me.

Comment From Phil
Gausman up before Bundy this year for the O’s?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s likely. The O’s are in a pennant race and no matter how awesome and bragable Dylan Bundy is, there’s some uncertainty around him

Dan Szymborski: And on that note, time to leave for another week! Thanks for joining me. As a reminder, you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections at FG, and DSzymborski on Twitter (and Steam if you want to play TF2 or something!)