Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/13/13
| 12:00 |
: It begins. 30 seconds to turn down your speaker.
|
| 12:00 |
could you see any smaller market fringe contender like Pittsburgh, Colorado, or Baltimore going all in and trying to deal for Cliff Lee? |
| 12:01 |
: I don’t think so. Even if they were willing, I don’t think the Phillies are living in reality land.
|
| 12:01 |
which happens first: keppinger walk, hr, or sb? |
| 12:02 |
: starting to think sun turns into a red giant first.
|
| 12:03 |
Espinosa vs. Daniel Murphy RoS in a 12-team H2H 5×5(OBP)? |
| 12:03 |
: Depends on how important BA is for you.
|
| 12:03 |
If you were ranking pitchers, about how highly would you rank Matt Harvey? Is he top 15? |
| 12:03 |
: Very high, not sure I’d put him in top 15 *quite* yet, but I tend to be conervative
|
| 12:04 |
Better rest of the season: Josh Hamilton or Delmon? Just kidding, but really how scary is it that this question isn’t comically insane? |
| 12:04 |
: I know, scary stuff. Would still take Hamilton first.
|
| 12:04 |
: His crazy swings will eventually luck into some more hits.
|
| 12:06 |
: For one, he’s not going to continue to have a BABIP around .250. BABIP is more “real” for hitters than pitchers, but I think he could do that with one of those wooden peg legs that cartoons told me pirates have.
|
| 12:06 |
You see Scott Kazmir’s start (or highlights)? Were you impressed and do you think the improvement is sustainable? |
| 12:06 |
: I’m very impressed and he’s the player I was most rooting for to crush his projections.
|
| 12:06 |
: The x factor, of course, is the injury risk.
|
| 12:06 |
What win $ value would you attach to the Anthony Rizzo contract for evaluative purposes? $6mm seems a bit high, though perhaps not for the later years of the deal … |
| 12:07 |
: Can’t give an exact answer in this format – this is the kind of question you should be hitting me on twitter for!
|
| 12:07 |
With his improved control to go with his regained velocity, could this be Kazmir’s career year? |
| 12:07 |
: If he stays healthy, sure.
|
| 12:07 |
Manny Machado – is it too early to just award him the Gold Glove at third base? |
| 12:09 |
: He’s been terrific there. As I’ve noted before, he plays so well at third that you might have thought he was actually a middle infielder playing out of position because the O’s did nothing to find a third baseman and decided that brian roberts would be healthy and alexi casilla and ryan flaherty were good plan Bs at second.
|
| 12:09 |
: But maybe that’s just me.
|
| 12:09 |
Matt Kemp has been a disappointment at best. What do you see ROS? |
| 12:10 |
: Very concerned. He’s now 279/331/426 over the last calendar year.
|
| 12:11 |
Is Michael Saunders bat legit? |
| 12:11 |
: *Starting* to get there. Because let’s be honest, he was quite lousy before last season.
|
| 12:11 |
Is Kevin Gausman watch on red alert w/ the injury to Wei Yin Chen? |
| 12:12 |
: Possibly. Depends how bad his strain is.
|
| 12:12 |
: (Chen)
|
| 12:12 |
: Gausman really should be promoted.
|
| 12:12 |
Are Brett Lawrie’s struggles purely mental, or is he really just not as good as everyone thought he was? |
| 12:12 |
: Honestly? Not really sure.
|
| 12:12 |
: It’d be nice to see him completely healthy
|
| 12:13 |
Trade for Ian Kennedy or is he maybe broken or something? |
| 12:13 |
: He’s not broken, it’s just that he’s actually the 2010/2012 kennedy, not the 2011 one.
|
| 12:13 |
It has been Umpirepalooza since your last chat. Thoughts? |
| 12:14 |
: The Jays should bat Jose Bautista in all 9 lineup spots, just in case the umpires donj’t know that rule either
|
| 12:15 |
: No wonder I didn’t think the replacement nfl refs were bad the first week or two – it came after watching MLB’s regular umps.
|
| 12:15 |
What would be the best area to visit to do a Summer baseball trip on a budget? Minors to the pros, doesn’t matter to me. |
| 12:17 |
: Carolina League if you can handle heat. The Carolinas aren’t expensive and most of the teams aren’t too far apart
|
| 12:17 |
: And I think offhand there are 6 Sally League teams in the Carolinas
|
| 12:18 |
: Depends where you are of course. If you live in California, obviously a Cal League tour would be less expensive
|
| 12:18 |
What are the chances that Shelby Miller is better longterm than Matt Harvey? Miller is posting a 2.40 FIP and a 2.93 xFIP vs 2.29 and 2.94 for Harvey and he is 2 years younger. |
| 12:18 |
: I don’t think that there’s really much that you can point to to say one is better than the other
|
| 12:19 |
I can never remember, do you do fantasy questions? Or is that only Eno now? |
| 12:19 |
: I scatter them. Too many can bog down the chat horribly.
|
| 12:20 |
Also, what happened to Jeremy Guthrie? how do you change from being a career 5+era-er to a sub 2.5? |
| 12:20 |
: Well, he was never actually a 5+ ERA guy. And he’s not really a sub 2.5er now
|
| 12:20 |
if Avisail Garcia gets called up as rumored and takes over Andy Dirks’ job is he a must-own in a 16-team mixed 5×5 keeper? |
| 12:21 |
: Must-own? No. But he has upside.
|
| 12:22 |
Will Ryan Kalish ever become a decent MLB regular? |
| 12:22 |
: Probalby not. He’s more likely to be 4th OF type in the long run
|
| 12:22 |
I am awesome at pitching |
| 12:22 |
: Reposted for truth.
|
| 12:22 |
Do you think Jay Bruce can outproduce Stanton ROS given Stanton’s injury? |
| 12:22 |
: Qualitative, no, but quantitative maybe.
|
| 12:22 |
So the Braves looked terrible over the weekend. Was it more the Giant being really good or the Braves bad? |
| 12:22 |
: Don’t read too much into a series.
|
| 12:23 |
: OK, LinkedIn just sent me some jobs that it thinks I’d be interested in.
|
| 12:24 |
: Senior Software Developer, Choice Technology (I’ve never developed software and mostly slept through computer sci in college)
|
| 12:24 |
: and a Vice President at NBC Sports! Can’t say I’d complain, but seems an odd suggestion.
|
| 12:24 |
Are Verlander’s best years already behind him? |
| 12:25 |
: Well yeah, he just had two Cy Youngish seasons. You can hardly think the best is yet to come.
|
| 12:25 |
How much faith do you have in ZIPS &/or Steamer ROS projections? For example, Rizzo’s ROS counting stats would place him as the number 2-4 first baseman at season’s end. I like Rizzo, but do you expect him to outperform Encarnacion, Freeman, Goldschmidt, etc. ROS like the ZIPS & Steamer projections do? |
| 12:25 |
: Not sure about Freeman, but I like Rizzo.
|
| 12:26 |
: Remember a few weeks ago when he was hitting 220/300/450 or something and people were panicking?
|
| 12:26 |
: The most important lesson about April is:
|
| 12:26 |
: April.
|
| 12:26 |
:
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| 12:26 |
Would you trade Hyun Jin Ryu for Tony Cingranni? |
| 12:26 |
: Ryu may be safer, but I would probably take CIngrani
|
| 12:28 |
Hector Santiago or Roberto Hernandez in a 5X5? |
| 12:28 |
: Santiago. I’m not ready to trust Fauxto.
|
| 12:28 |
Harvey for Machado, who hangs up? |
| 12:28 |
: Ouch. I think both teams hang up, actually.
|
| 12:28 |
: Challenge trades of your elite prospects is just inviting second guessing
|
| 12:28 |
: If Machado gets injured and sucks, nobody’s going to blame Duquette.
|
| 12:29 |
: If he trades Machado for Harvey and Harvey gets injured and sucks, everybody would.
|
| 12:29 |
Re: Jeff Keppinger. I don’t pay any attention to the Chicago White Sox so I am just now seeing these numbers (didn’t believe he had 0 walks). This might be the worst 125 AB line of all time. |
| 12:29 |
: Yeah, usually the line is “dude didn’t just forget to hit over the winter, be patient”
|
| 12:29 |
: But Keppinger’s trying that line.
|
| 12:29 |
more Walks or more K’s from Bauer today? |
| 12:30 |
: Still Ks I think. Bauer has some rough patches, but it’ sway too early (and he’s not bad enough) to throw him into the Brad Pennington Pile.
|
| 12:31 |
Has Duda’s plate discipline vanished? |
| 12:31 |
: THat’s a little soon to worry. He’s bee in what, 5 games since we talked?
|
| 12:31 |
Rendon is playing more 2b at AA. % chance he replaces Espinosa by the ASB? |
| 12:31 |
: 40
|
| 12:32 |
Neil Walker, Mitch Moreland or Jayson Werth ROS. Ignore position. |
| 12:32 |
: Isn’t that a little like saying “reuben or croque madame, ignore deliciousness?”
|
| 12:33 |
: Porbably walker slightly over werth
|
| 12:33 |
Would you recommend holding dealing Pujols at 75 cents on the dollar because his value will go down, or holding him hoping it will go up? |
| 12:33 |
: I’d hold. He’s not this bad.
|
| 12:33 |
Fact or fiction: People should be concerned about all pitching prospects at all times because A) they are pitchers, B) pitchers get all the time and C) no one really knows why? |
| 12:33 |
: Not just prospects
|
| 12:33 |
: all pitchers.
|
| 12:33 |
: People should be concerned about pitchers at all times, for all reasons.
|
| 12:34 |
Thoughts on Dyson? Francouer is awful. |
| 12:34 |
: My Dyson is a powerful vacuum cleaner, but Francoeur sucks more, I think.
|
| 12:34 |
: Oh, the *guy* Dyson
|
| 12:34 |
: Not sure if he’s a net positive de facto replacing Frenchy
|
| 12:34 |
I know most people are on the record as liking Wheeler more than Harvey longterm, but does anyone serious think he will perform better than Harvey has this year? |
| 12:35 |
: No. Harvey’s emergence changes the calculus.
|
| 12:35 |
: When it’s possible breakout, I would (and have) taken Wheeler.
|
| 12:35 |
: But once he’s actually had the breakout, Harvey becomes the better long-term bet, simply because his breakout is now considerably less speculative
|
| 12:36 |
: Evaluations aren’t handed down on stone tablets – new information changes our evaluations.
|
| 12:36 |
how is cleveland team hitting #1 in WAR when nearly everyone in the lineup is like a .250 hitter? |
| 12:36 |
: They’re first in OPS
|
| 12:36 |
I am new to this, but it looks like ubaldo jimenez is throwing a change more often and the velo difference between the fastball and change is more pronounced. could this be a reason for recent success? |
| 12:37 |
: It’s possible, but I don’t hav ethe data from his most recent starts right in front of me
|
| 12:37 |
: And I don’t want to quite things from memory
|
| 12:37 |
Harvey is on pace for well over 200 IP this season. Think the Mets shut him down at some point? |
| 12:38 |
: I don’t know about shutting him down, but as they drop out of the race, I expect them to ease up on him as the summer goes on
|
| 12:38 |
How many options do minor league players have? I ask because this is Bauer’s third time up for a spot start! |
| 12:38 |
: The option is for a year – it’s not the number of times he’s been demoted
|
| 12:38 |
: Once a player is added to the 40-man roster, he can be sent down on optional assignment in 3 seasons.
|
| 12:39 |
: And tha tincludes when a player on 40-man roster is sent down at spring training
|
| 12:40 |
: So Indians already used an option year.
|
| 12:40 |
Are the Yankees essentially the team version of Aaron Small? |
| 12:40 |
: heh
|
| 12:41 |
Liriano, Kazmir, or Ubaldo J. Which one should i grab right now? |
| 12:41 |
: Kaz
|
| 12:41 |
With Chen injured and Garza returning, the Orioles are totally trading for Scott Feldman, right? |
| 12:41 |
: Meh.
|
| 12:41 |
Fauxto Carmona is a completely different pitcher (literally) and is actually K’ing people now. Do you buy this newfound ability? |
| 12:41 |
: I remain skeptical
|
| 12:41 |
DJ Lemahieu .358/.399/.507(AAA) is an MLB player right? He had a 98wRC+ on the road as a 23yo, and hit .313/.346/.433 as a starter last year… Why is Jonny Herrera(59wRC+) in MLB |
| 12:42 |
: I think he should be in the majors now
|
| 12:42 |
Can you do ROS projections for Minor League Players? |
| 12:42 |
: I can, but I can’t do them en masse, simply because I don’t have a convenient streaming source of minor league data.
|
| 12:42 |
is Girardi manager of the year? I mean putting together gross line ups and getting ridiculously lucky counts as a good job now? |
| 12:42 |
Hopeless Hosmer fan here. Are the last two weeks any reason to (renew) hope? |
| 12:42 |
: Dunno, I’m a hopeless Hosmer optimistic myself
|
| 12:42 |
What do you think the Mariners will do about their shortstop situation? How long before they make a move? |
| 12:44 |
: Frankly, Franklin or Triunfel shoudl be there now
|
| 12:44 |
Do you think Ian Kinsler can maintain his stellar start to the season? |
| 12:44 |
: Well, those numbers, no. But the Kinslayer was written down too hastily after 2012
|
| 12:44 |
I have, for some crazy reason, always been a fan of James Loney. I felt that too many people got wrapped up into the “he doesn’t hit homers” thing so that makes him a horrible first baseman. |
| 12:45 |
: It’s harder to be a good 1B without hitting HR, but it’s possible.
|
| 12:45 |
: Loney’s generally been disappointing
|
| 12:46 |
Any chance we’ll get to see your GAR rankings from ESPN’s Top 100? And if so, when? |
| 12:46 |
: I haven’t revisited that project for awhile – I’m still trying to figure out an elegant way to not overrate 19th century players
|
| 12:46 |
whats the projection for someone like Pineda this year? |
| 12:46 |
: ZiPS knows he missed a year with his shoulder.
|
| 12:47 |
: And injured pitcher is perhaps more unpredictable than random chance, which kind of breaks mathematics
|
| 12:47 |
Bah – hit enter before I meant to. Additional part of my James Loney question. Do you think he continues to hit .300 or better the rest of the way and prove he is valuable there with his decent to above average glove and quality hit skill? |
| 12:47 |
: Not sure of .300 – his BABIP is like a million
|
| 12:47 |
When you watch baseball, what are the things you look for that differentiate you from the average fan or the average scout? |
| 12:48 |
: Wasted movement.
|
| 12:48 |
i am in dire need of steals and cameron maybin is available. I could replace saunders with maybin. Worht it? |
| 12:49 |
: No.
|
| 12:49 |
Lawrie looked good VS boston at the dish, just all his line drives were at people. he smacked a nice BOMB yesterday |
| 12:49 |
Can Cashman get any return for Nova? |
| 12:50 |
: Nova has this wacky tendency that the better his peripherals get, the worse he pitches.
|
| 12:50 |
I’m no scout but Lawrie looks like he needs to *slow down* when he is in the batter’s box. |
| 12:50 |
WHAT UP SZYMLORDS |
| 12:50 |
So, obviously Texas’s front office has done a good job of explaining to the on-field personnel that one way to leave your division in your dust is to ruthlessly destroy the 100 loss team almost every time you play them. |
| 12:50 |
: Poor Astros
|
| 12:50 |
How concerned are you about Chris Medlen? Bad in 4 of his last 5 starts … |
| 12:50 |
: I’m not worried about Medlen yet
|
| 12:51 |
: Though I would say that people moved him past “good pitcher” too quickly
|
| 12:51 |
What about the major differences between Steamer and ZiPS? Try to use both for fantasy evaluations, but don’t understand why one system values a player different than the other. |
| 12:51 |
: Well, they have differing methods, I’m sure.
|
| 12:51 |
: I don’t know all the internals of Steamer, so it’s hard for me to say for sure
|
| 12:51 |
The Os could use a second baseman but they can’t afford to trade or spend much to do it. Would Justin Turner for Xavier Avery work? |
| 12:52 |
: Kinda meh on Turner
|
| 12:52 |
What does it take to get Ryan Jackson up for Kozma? |
| 12:53 |
: The realization that it’s not a good idea to drastically change your evaluation of a player based on a single month in 2012.
|
| 12:53 |
re: Ian Kennedy: I ask if he’s maybe broken because his K rate has taken a dive/ BB rate has spiked and his Zone% is way down….velocity is normal though |
| 12:53 |
Any concerns about matt Cain home run prevention skills? |
| 12:53 |
: Not really
|
| 12:54 |
how would you handle a platoon of gyorko and middlebrooks at 3b until hanley gets back? |
| 12:54 |
: matchups. I like gyorko better anyway, though middlebrooks is better in fantasy than real life
|
| 12:54 |
Which is more likely for end-of-season totals for Dee Gordon: 50SB or 3 HR? Or, I suppose, back to the minors in a month |
| 12:54 |
: 3 HR probably most likely
|
| 12:55 |
When does Nick Franklin come up? Sea SS’s are abysmal. Are they just keeping his trade value high as he’s raking AAA pitchers |
| 12:55 |
: It’s hard to not justify a promotion at thi spoint
|
| 12:55 |
Teix, Jeter or Granderson, which one has the best chance to be productive this year? |
| 12:55 |
: Grandy
|
| 12:56 |
: I think he’s the best player of the 3 at this point and I’m less worried about a broken bone than I would be of a torn tendon or ligament or something
|
| 12:56 |
I spent my 4th round pick on Moore ina dynasty draft this year (hr/9, k/9. bb/9, RA, K-w/IP), which I think was the right decision as he is a young, talented pitcher on the rise. How highly should I value him moving forward? |
| 12:57 |
: Don’t want to give you an exact value without knowing the vagaries of your keeper rules, but I’d still think of him as #2 guy until he wrings a BB/9 out of his stats
|
| 12:57 |
Anibal Sanchez: 11+ K/9, 1.46 FIP, .333 babip….chances he ends up in the top 3 Cy Young vote getters? |
| 12:58 |
: I think he’ll still regress enough to fall out of the top 3
|
| 12:58 |
: If he doesn’t, maybe broadcasters will stop calling him Annabelle Sanchez.
|
| 12:58 |
I’m pretty new to FG and ZiPS. Is there a web page that breaks down ZiPS? I’d love to see the history and system behind the projections! |
| 12:59 |
: It’s a little out of date, but www.baseballthinkfactory.org/szymborski/zipsqa.rtf? still works
|
| 12:59 |
: There’s more PBP data in ZiPS now, but it covers a lot of the basics
|
| 12:59 |
how much longer do you give konerko before pressing the panic button? |
| 1:00 |
: Not panic (he won’t stay with a pitcher-hitter BABIP), but I’d be very concerned he’s finally hitting that glide plane to the end.
|
| 1:00 |
can you give me any insight into miguel montero’s terrible season start? |
| 1:01 |
: Still too early to panic, though his end-of-season line will be pretty bleh now
|
| 1:01 |
I have players like Machado, Rizzo, and Kipnis in my dynasty under control for 9 years. Should I value this guys (not so much Kip) as top 25 players? |
| 1:02 |
: Given the amount of time you have them, sure. Though if the price is higher than I’m thinking in your rules, then I’d push them downwards
|
| 1:02 |
: Kipnis, as you say, not so much
|
| 1:02 |
Which closer reclamation project do you think is most likely to succeed for the rest of 2013 of Gregg/Valverde/Bell? |
| 1:02 |
: Valverde, but i’m not relaly high on any of the three
|
| 1:03 |
Szymborksi Szymborski Szymborski … you’re the one with the spreadsheet monkeys in the dungeon, right? |
| 1:03 |
: I thought we established that I had a torture porn dungeon. Where would I find spreadsheet monkeys?
|
| 1:03 |
: I’ve only got 3000 square feet to work with
|
| 1:04 |
Why do you think stolen bases are down compared to year’s past? |
| 1:04 |
: singles are down again
|
| 1:05 |
: HRs are actually only a hair below the 2002-2009 average.
|
| 1:05 |
: The “low HR era” isn’t really a “low HR era” but a “low BA era”
|
| 1:05 |
Thanks for the response. I’d be coming from Texas so the heat isn’t an issue. I was actually thinking the Carolinas as I really want to see Hickory. |
| 1:06 |
: I like carolina bbq, but you may have some regional feud with them coming from texas
|
| 1:06 |
Starling Marte = young Alfonso Soriano? |
| 1:06 |
: I’ve heard worse comps
|
| 1:06 |
Brandon Maurer debuted a new curve in his last start against the A’s. Your thoughts? (if you saw the game) |
| 1:06 |
: I did not see his last start
|
| 1:06 |
Is Anthony Rendon good? I ask because I really don’t know how to evaluate him. What do you predict he could hit in a year or two? |
| 1:07 |
: I think he’ll be good, the question is attendance.
|
| 1:07 |
: I don’t think 320/420 is unrealistic right now
|
| 1:07 |
Yelich time before July? At 1b possibly? |
| 1:08 |
: Not sure about *that* soon
|
| 1:08 |
I’m also quite good at pitching. |
| 1:08 |
Ervin Santana’s recent success sustainable? His HR/9 will undoubtedly rise, however he isn’t walking anyone and is getting plenty swinging strikes. |
| 1:08 |
: He’s had good runs before. I’m skepitcal about him being this good, but I’m now confident he’s better than ZiPS believes.
|
| 1:08 |
How’s it going? Three almost no-hitters in the St. Louis-Colorado series. That was cool, right? |
| 1:08 |
All the fangraphs guys were gaga over Burch Smith bc he can touch 98. What did you see saturday? |
| 1:09 |
: I didn’t see his debut.
|
| 1:09 |
: I watch a ton of games, but not all 2430
|
| 1:09 |
Uggla, yay or nay? |
| 1:09 |
: Nay
|
| 1:09 |
victor martinez.. his contact rates all look in line with his career numbers, but he’s not hitting for avg *or* power. babip is roughly .080 lower than career. do you believe the avg will come back even if his power numbers have forever diminished? |
| 1:10 |
: Watching Martinez swing, to me, it looks like there’s nothing behind it
|
| 1:10 |
Is Terry Collins in any jeopardy of losing his job or is he just doing the best with what he has? |
| 1:11 |
: He’s always going to be jeopardy, I think he’s a transition manager and when the Mets are a better team, they’re going with a different guy
|
| 1:11 |
Have you used the new Standings/Depth Charts things on Fangraphs? If so, what do you use them for? (I like them, but haven’t figured out how to really get the most out of the new info) |
| 1:11 |
: I have not. Since I do my own with ZiPS internally, I’m probably the person that the feature is least targeted towards
|
| 1:11 |
Is Mike Olt going to start slipping down prospect lists? It seems like I’ve been hearing negative thing about him on Fangraphs for the past year or two. |
| 1:12 |
: He’s had a rough start for sure
|
| 1:12 |
: I think he was a bit too hyped and as I said repeatedly, even at frisco he was still not a finished project
|
| 1:12 |
Justin Upton sell now candidate? |
| 1:13 |
: If you can get someone to pay you as if he’s an 1000 OPS guy, sure
|
| 1:13 |
Weird they just suggested Fangraphs chat guy for me |
| 1:13 |
: Is that a job?
|
| 1:13 |
With no obvious #5 ready to take over, do you see the Giants going outside the organization for a #5 if Vogey continues to struggle? |
| 1:13 |
: No.
|
| 1:13 |
The Mariners don’t look as awful as they did early in the season? Have they improved, or were the early struggles not as big a deal as people made it out to be? |
| 1:13 |
: I just don’t think they’re all that good. They smell like a mid-70s win team to me
|
| 1:14 |
What are your thoughts on the rotation of the Cardinals? |
| 1:14 |
: 1. Awesome. 2. How in seven hells does Jake Westbrook get any batter out ever?
|
| 1:14 |
How patient should the Mariners be with Smoak, Ackley and Montero? |
| 1:14 |
: Impatient, patient, moderately patient respectively
|
| 1:14 |
Profar capable of 20/20 seasons? Profar vs. Manchado going to be the next Harper vs. Trout? |
| 1:14 |
: Yes and yes.
|
| 1:14 |
The ZIPS ROS for the Jays has them barely above .500 rest of the way. Is it fair to say that for them to compete in 2014, they’ll need some substantial additions? |
| 1:15 |
: Honestly, it’s hard to gauge just how good this team is.
|
| 1:15 |
Trade Adrian Gonzalez for Freddie Freeman in a dynasty league? |
| 1:15 |
: I would
|
| 1:15 |
You build PCs, don’t you? You occasionally talk computer parts on Twitter. What would be a decent $1000 computer that’s not too hard to build |
| 1:15 |
: Uh, that’s a little hard to go too in-depth here without needs/priorities etc.
|
| 1:16 |
: Something like 3570k, ASROck extreme 4, a 7870xt GPU
|
| 1:16 |
: Decent case and decent power supply. Probalby not fitting a SSD in there.
|
| 1:16 |
What would be the best way to adjust game score for strikeout environment? (e.g. – 15Ks in the 40s or 50s campared to now) |
| 1:17 |
: I’d probably do the game scores for an average start historically and rescale by year
|
| 1:17 |
What does Zips think about Chris Carpenter as a closer? |
| 1:17 |
: Haven’t checked. Presumably good.
|
| 1:17 |
Remember Dylan Bundy? |
| 1:17 |
: He’s off getting that platelet plasma stuff.
|
| 1:18 |
: Kind of like a reduction sauce that they inject into your arm.
|
| 1:18 |
: I think
|
| 1:18 |
mets def need that 3B to replace their only good position player |
| 1:18 |
RE: Harvey vs. Machado. Really? I get what you’re saying and I know Harvey is preforming at elite levels but isn’t the rule of thumb Bat >>> pitcher? Not to mention he is capable of playing SS with that bat. |
| 1:19 |
: I hate rules of thumb.
|
| 1:19 |
There’s a Brad Pennington pile!?!?!?! Pic? |
| 1:19 |
: Ack, too soon
|
| 1:19 |
: wasn’t done previous Q
|
| 1:19 |
: Pitchers are riskier, but comparable when you compare them to replacement level health
|
| 1:20 |
Around what date do you usually “waiting” for the guy that forgot to hit/pitch over winter? (VMart, Sal Perez, ect.) |
| 1:20 |
: When I have my a/c on for 7 consecutive days
|
| 1:20 |
Why would one stat, like average, in a fantasy league be more or less important for your team? Do people intentionally tank certain categories? Isn’t the objective to just get the best players? |
| 1:20 |
: Marginal value. If you’ve got a big HR lead and terrible in BA, prioritizing HR over BA leads to diminishing returns
|
| 1:21 |
: There’s no value, in fantasy, in crushing 2nd place ina category at the end of the year
|
| 1:21 |
: A few more quickies then time to go
|
| 1:21 |
When looking at ZIPS projections for a full team, does the margin for error increase or decrease due to summing projections? IE, would you expect more variance from a single player’s projection, or from a full team? |
| 1:21 |
: More variance form a player for sure
|
| 1:22 |
: from a player
|
| 1:22 |
ZING I see what you did there re: Frenchy. JJ Hoover would take offense to being left out of the conversation! |
| 1:22 |
: Damn you guys asked a lot of questions today
|
| 1:22 |
Are the Braves the favorite in the NL East now, or has their recent swoon made it the Nats again–or is it a tossup? |
| 1:22 |
: I think it’s badk to a tossup
|
| 1:23 |
What are the Odds that Trout goes .300-30-30 this year based on his start? |
| 1:23 |
: 15%? I think he falls a little short on HR/BA
|
| 1:23 |
Thanks to Keppinger, I now know that wRC+ goes into the negatives! |
| 1:24 |
What do you think of George Springer? Can his approach translate to the majors? Adam Dunn with speed, maybe? |
| 1:24 |
: I like Springer a lot.
|
| 1:24 |
: I dont’ think he’s a candidate to skip AAA though
|
| 1:25 |
Are you as optimistic about Ike Davis as you are with Hosmer? |
| 1:25 |
: No, I’ve never been that optimistic on Ike
|
| 1:25 |
Any thoughts on the reported Anthony Rizzo contract extension? Seems like a pretty good deal for the Cubs, right? |
| 1:25 |
: Like, but can’t put a number on it
|
| 1:25 |
Isn’t Hosmer just another Jame Loney? |
| 1:25 |
: Don’t say that!
|
| 1:25 |
I would think the fact that Loney averages less than a WAR a year is why he’s a horrible first baseman |
| 1:25 |
What kind of contract do you think Lincecum gets next year? |
| 1:25 |
: short contract with upside
|
| 1:25 |
: Nobody’s giving him 9 figures now
|
| 1:26 |
Valar Morghulis |
| 1:26 |
: valar dohaeris
|
| 1:26 |
What is the anatomy of a good question on a Fangraphs chat? |
| 1:26 |
: Something that everyone can appreciate, something short enough that I don’t have to waste 5 minutes running and/or thinking about
|
| 1:26 |
: Opportunity for a lame joke.
|
| 1:26 |
Masterson lookin nasty right now |
| 1:26 |
Roberto Hernandez does not exist. There is fausto daemons. |
| 1:27 |
There are serious doubts concerning Franklin’s ability to handle short. |
| 1:27 |
: Nothing ventured, nothing gained
|
| 1:27 |
: He comes up and can’t hack it at short in the majors, causing the M’s to be a mediocre team. They’re already that.
|
| 1:28 |
Is matt carpenter’s defense good enough to stick at second given his bat? |
| 1:28 |
: So far so good.
|
| 1:28 |
: Sometimes, you just have to see – Brett Lawrie was supposed to be a lousy defender coming up and Dee Gordon an excellent one
|
| 1:28 |
How awesome is healthy TULO? |
| 1:29 |
: Awesomer than a metaphor involving comparing Tulo to awesome things.
|
| 1:29 |
Any thoughts about WIl Myers and Profar’s apparent mediocrity at AAA this year? |
| 1:29 |
: Too soon to worry.
|
| 1:29 |
Has Safeco still been playing as a pitchers park, or is it closer to neutral now? Do we have enough data to conclude anything? |
| 1:29 |
: Not enough data fora conclusion. One year park factors are terrible. We have 6 weeks.
|
| 1:30 |
: But in *very* early going, it’s still showing up as a strong pitcher’s park, just not as strong as the last few years
|
| 1:30 |
I’m telling people that Delmon Young puts up 25 Hr’s in Philly this year – they think I’m nuts. what do you think? |
| 1:32 |
: add some phyllo and honey and call yourself baklava
|
| 1:32 |
If you were to start a Fangraphs spinoff (ala BeerGraphs and Eno), what would it be? |
| 1:32 |
: perhaps a nerdy music site
|
| 1:32 |
: or football
|
| 1:32 |
: or pro wrestling
|
| 1:32 |
: or video games
|
| 1:32 |
: Probably video games
|
| 1:32 |
“I really want to see Hickory” is not something you will ever hear from someone who has been to Hickory. |
| 1:33 |
my dad says cheese is only for dumb dumbs, true or false |
| 1:33 |
: false
|
| 1:33 |
When you play TF2, who are your favorite characters to play as? I personally love Pyro and Gunslinger Engy. |
| 1:33 |
: Pyro, Heavy, Mini-sentry engy, huntsman sniper
|
| 1:34 |
: I play with a handful of FG writers and readers
|
| 1:34 |
: I’m DSzymborski on Steam
|
| 1:34 |
You say your “very concerned” about Kemp. How would you value him in a keeper league? Do I suck it up and wait for next year? Or do I need to sell now, while people might still think he has elite talent in there? |
| 1:34 |
: I would sell if you can get someone to pay elite prices
|
| 1:34 |
any thoughts on Derek Dietrich? |
| 1:34 |
: bullish. he may be the best offensive 2B/3B/SS type on the team
|
| 1:34 |
: OK, that’s not saying much, but I like him
|
| 1:34 |
Are the Padres really better than the Dodgers? |
| 1:35 |
: Probably not
|
| 1:35 |
Does Bud Norris pitch for a playoff team this season? |
| 1:35 |
: No
|
| 1:35 |
how does a mid-70s win team smell? |
| 1:35 |
: sweat, doritos, juniper
|
| 1:35 |
Welcome to the Dan and First Time Poster show! |
| 1:35 |
will the pirates finish over .500 this year? LOOK INTO YOUR CRYSTAL BALL, SZYMBORSKI. |
| 1:35 |
: Yes, closely
|
| 1:35 |
Does ESPN mandate that guys can only chat for their allotted hour? So many guys seem to end at exactly on the hour. Less passion? Too much other work to do? |
| 1:36 |
: Honeslty, I’m not sure what the ESPN policy is.
|
| 1:36 |
: I don’t really do the one-hour chats, they like to use me for the Event Chats and leave me chatting for hours
|
| 1:37 |
Yes, all men must die. BUT WE ARE NOT MEN. |
| 1:37 |
: We are devo?
|
| 1:37 |
Please answer my Bryce Harper question, I have waited like 3 weeks to ask it. |
| 1:37 |
: If you ask me on twitter afterwards, I can give you an answer – too hard to do quickly in a chat
|
| 1:38 |
is there going to be a point where jordan schafer starts regularly over b.j. upton in CF |
| 1:38 |
: Probably not.
|
| 1:38 |
: There’s a lot invested in B.J. Upton and let’s be honest, Jordan Schafer’s still likely to end up being JOrdan Schafer
|
| 1:38 |
could you go beer-for-beer with wade boggs? |
| 1:39 |
: The most drinks I’ve done in an evening is upper 20s. Without getting sick, probably 23/24 in an evening.
|
| 1:39 |
: Chris Dial (from BTF, you may not know him since he’s not actively writing much) is the best drinker I’ve ever hung out with
|
| 1:39 |
: He can outdrink me.
|
| 1:39 |
Did someone really co-opt my handle? Wow |
| 1:40 |
How often do chatters submit a picture of boobs just to make your day? Not often enough I’m guessing? |
| 1:40 |
: None surprisingly
|
| 1:40 |
iirc you gave up beer for a while. have you started drinking beer again and if so, has tolerance shifted dramatically? |
| 1:40 |
: I haven’t tested it.
|
| 1:40 |
: I’ve lost 25 pounds since the 1st of January by not drinking
|
| 1:40 |
: Not exercising or eating healthier. Just beer.
|
| 1:41 |
: That I lost that much without beer is troubling in itself.
|
| 1:41 |
: On that note, it’s time to end the chat for the week.
|
| 1:42 |
: As usual, you can primarily find me at ESPN, chats and projections on FG, DSzymborski on Twitter, and whatever region of the world overweight nerdy writers are worshiped as gods among men.
|
| 1:42 |
: And Juan Pierre’s Mustache, I’m still mad that you dominated me as a pyro yesterday because my team’s goddamn pyro wouldn’t ever put me out.
|
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Liriano, Kazmir, and Ubaldo J. Which one should i grab out of the three?
Ubaldo J? Thanks for putting that in, I would’ve thought you meant Ubaldo Smith.