Daily Notes: Most Improved Hitters So Far, Per Steamer
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.
1. Most Improved Hitters So Far, Per Steamer
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule
Most Improved Hitters So Far, Per Steamer
As the reader will know, we carry a tidy collection of projection systems here at the site — of which two now, Steamer and ZiPS, are updated daily with constantly changing rest-of-season and overall total projections. Together, the two systems provide important data for our new Standings tool. Another use is to see which players’ season performances to date have most altered their rest-of-season projections.
This week, in the Notes, we’ll be considering those hitters and pitchers whose projections have most improved. Below are the most improved hitters, according to Steamer — where “most improved” is defined as “greatest increase in wOBA projection.”
Note: any player either (a) with fewer than 150 projected rest-of-season plate appearances or (b) absent currently from a major-league roster has been omitted from consideration.
5. Josh Donaldson, 3B, Oakland
Steamer (Pre): 403 PA, .250/.315/.421 (.279 BABIP), .319 wOBA, 103 wRC+
Steamer (RoS): 306 PA, .257/.324/.432 (.286 BABIP), .329 wOBA, 107 wRC+
Notes: Most of Donaldson’s improvement so far seems to have come from an increase in projected BABIP. After entering the season with a .272 figure in 328 major-league plate appearances — and only a ca. .300 BABIP in the offense-heavy Pacific Coast League — he currently has a .336 so far this season through 159 plate appearances.
4. Didi Gregorius, SS, Arizona
Steamer (Pre): 215 PA, .255/.296/.365 (.285 BABIP), .288 wOBA, 72 wRC+
Steamer (RoS): 165 PA, .262/.303/.381 (.290 BABIP), .298 wOBA, 77 wRC+
Notes: Gregorious showed some but not much power as a minor leaguer, perhaps putting forth his best performance last season, with six home runs in 202 plate appearance with Triple-A Louisville. He’s already hit five now, though, in fewer than 100 plate appearances between Arizona’s Triple-A and major-league clubs. That, and an improving BABIP projection, appear to be the basis for his 10-point improvement in wOBA.
3. Bryce Harper, OF, Washington
Steamer (Pre): 668 PA, .263/.335/.457 (.296 BABIP), .342 wOBA, 114 wRC+
Steamer (RoS): 516 PA, .268/.342/.479 (.296 BABIP), .353 wOBA, 119 wRC+
Notes: Relative to his rookie season, Harper has so far (a) increased his walk rate by nearly four percentage points, (b) reduced his strikeout rate by three points, and (c) almost precisely doubled his home-run rate.
2. Carlos Gomez, OF, Milwaukee
Steamer (Pre): 464 PA, .247/.300/.404 (.292 BABIP), .305 wOBA, 89 wRC+
Steamer (RoS): 364 PA, .260/.310/.431 (.304 BABIP), .321 wOBA, 97 wRC+
Notes: Regarded for the majority of his career as a glove-first outfielder with offensive upside, Gomez began realizing some of that upside last season, hitting 19 home runs in 452 plate appearances. He’s begun 2013 not only with an even slightly improved home-run rate (4.2% to 4.5%), but also with a .435 BABIP. Steamer thinks it’s probable that there are real gains in Gomez’s batted-ball profile. Hence, the 16-point improvement overall.
1. Jean Segura, SS, Milwaukee
Steamer (Pre): 428 PA, .267/.314/.375 (.299 BABIP), .299 wOBA, 85 wRC+
Steamer (RoS): 335 PA, .277/.323/.403 (.307 BABIP), .315 wOBA, 93 wRC+
Notes: The Brewers currently find themselves in fourth place in the NL Central — and, given the projections, that’s where they’re most likely to end up. To date, though, they’ve rostered the leagues two most improved hitters — Gomez (above) and Segura. Originally projected to hit just five home runs in 428 plate appearances, Segura — who’s hit six of them 143 PAs — is projected to hit six more home runs in 335 plate appearances.
Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
New York AL at Cleveland | 12:05 ET
New York AL at Cleveland | Game Two
Somewhat surprisingly, Cleveland continues to have outproduced every offense in baseball (120 wRC+), and features a park-adjusted home-run rate better than two standard deviations above league average. Thing to note about the second game: left-hander Vidal Nuno starts it for the Yankees, his first major-league start. He was excellent (23.1 IP, 30.6% K, 2.4% BB) at Triple-A, although has succeeded more on pitchability than stuff.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.
New York NL at St. Louis | 19:05 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
“Jeremy Hefner faces Lance Lynn,” is a true comment one can make about this game.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: New York NL Television.
Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.6.
Note: the following table is entirely sortable.
| Away | SP | Tm. | Gm. | Tm. | SP | Home | Time | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Phelps* | NYA | 7 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 6 | CLE | Justin Masterson | 12:05 |
| Vidal Nuno* | NYA | 9 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 8 | CLE | Trevor Bauer* | Gm 2 |
| Marco Estrada | MIL | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | PIT | A.J. Burnett | 19:05 |
| Jeremy Hefner | NYN | 3 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 7 | STL | Lance Lynn | 19:05 |
| Bud Norris | HOU | 2 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | DET | Anibal Sanchez | 19:08 |
| Juan Nicasio | COL | 3 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | CHN | Travis Wood | 20:05 |
| Hector Santiago* | CHA | 7 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | MIN | Pedro Hernandez* | 20:10 |
| Mike Minor | ATL | 6 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 5 | AZ | Wade Miley | 21:40 |
| Luis Mendoza | KC | 2 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 4 | LAA | Joe Blanton | 22:05 |
| Justin Grimm | TEX | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | OAK | A.J. Griffin | 22:05 |
| Jor. Zimmermann | WAS | 8 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 5 | LAN | Josh Beckett | 22:10 |
To learn how Pitcher and Team NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Pedro Hernandez is over 20 IP. He has, at this point, earned that 3 NERD.
I’m fairly sure Pedro Hernandez is a made up person.
Would you take Donaldson over Conor Gillaspie and Juan Francisco?
Context is a 5×5 dynasty league, 14 teams. Team is in the middle of a complete rebuild.
FanGraphs has a fantasy section called RotoGraphs. This is the part of the website where all our fantasy talk revolves around A.J. Griffin’s curvepiece becoming a Charlie Blackmon donger.
I’ve been disapointed by the lack of high game NERDs. What would be the highest possible game NERD, Anibal Sanchez (10, 8 for DET) vs Matt Harvey (10, 7 for NYM)? I think that would still only be a 9 (10*3+8 + 10*3+7)/8 = 9.375. Am I right?
Corban Joseph starting game 1 today. BB in his first MLB PA.
Most improved hitter list without Chris Davis is a joke.
You may not be aware of this, but Carson is a pretty funny guy.
You did not actually read the article, I take it?
Yeah, if my crude math is even remotely accurate, I have him for a 19-pt improvement in wOBA.
I see a 9 point increase in wOBA. We’re comparing Steamer (R) with pre-season Steamer, which you can find on the projections tab of his page.
Looks like he just missed the list.
Any comment like this which snarkily dismisses the author’s hard work in its entirety whilst lazily neglecting to provide any evidence to support its own hastily made point is even worse than a joke.
Almost as bad a joke as “whilst” is a word.
GALLO’S COMMENT : JOKES :: WHILST : WHILE
Only surprised that Carlos and Jean were 2-1 instead of 1-2.
Don’t you dare list Michael Nelson Trout in tomorrow’s “Most Eroded Hitters So Far, Per Steamer”. It is not his fault, Josh Hamilton shititude is the contact aureole enveloping Trout’s magma eruption. Actually, if I may torture this horrible metaphor further, Hamilton’s shititude is a contact-regional metamorphic aureole weighing down the Angels’ rise to a division title.
Hamilton’s shititude, seeing “Steamer” in the headline, and my impatience with these Angels bring to mindpoor Vacerra:
“Vacerra, while passing his hours in latrines, and sitting there all day long, desires not to empty his belly (i.e., shit), but to fill it.”
Your post has moved me immeasurably.
Can somebody please explain to me why Steamer thought Harper would have a lower wRC+ and wOBA this year than last year, and STILL thinks so? It doesn’t make any sense- a 19-year-old with a perfectly reasonable BABIP is going to get offensively *worse* in his second full year?
19-20 aging curves are hard to do and they are even worse if you use minor league data. Read Tom Tango’s stuff on the weakness of MLEs and you will realize that they are basically misinformation for a player who is 3 or 4 years ahead of a normal first round draft pick.
Fair enough, thanks. It just frustrates me that such a sophisticated prediction could spit out so laughable a prediction.
What are you talking about? When the article was written, Steamer projected .353 wOBA RoS, which is higher than his .352 last year.
So I take it the steamer is not buying Dexter Fowler’s April?
Nothing for Starling Marte? Steamer preseason was .277/.323/.438 with 18 SB for the whole season; for the rest of the season it now has him .283/.331/.448 with 21 steals; wOBA moved from .327 to .336. Seems to be worth at least an honorable mention.
His updated rest-of-season wRC+ puts him at 121 for the season, which is pretty elite.