Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/31/17

Dan Szymborski: OH GOD THERE’S NO QUESTION QUEUE DAMN YOU CARSON

Big Tuna: Are we buying into Whit Merrifield?

Dan Szymborski: There’s probably some real power improvement there, but let’s not go too nuts yet.

The Average Sports Fan: What is holding the Cubs back?

Dan Szymborski: Losses.

Nick: Drop O. Herrera?

Dan Szymborski: Depends what plan B is.

yojiveself: trust lamet next week vs Az?

Dan Szymborski: I’m a fan, but I wouldn’t *trust* him yet. He’s come so far very fast, but I don’t think he’s a finished product

Dan Szymborski: His change is still a work in progress and it can be a big mistake pitch if he loses the plot with it

David Wiers: No queue? This is why we can’t have nice things.

The warm side of the pillow: Judge still somehow has a .320 avg, can he finish the year north of .280?

Dan Szymborski: He’s got a lot of room to fall and stay above it. ZiPS has him finishing a little under, I think he’s improved more than ZiPS does, BA wise, and think he’ll finish a little above.

San Diego Fan: Dinelson Lamet…for reals?

Dan Szymborski: To the extent that he’s a very talented, young, upside pitcher who can very quickly find himself a core part of the future Padres, yes. In the sense that he’s a finished product right now, no.

Dan Szymborski: But he was have some amazing starts this season.

Big Tuna: Is Beltran’s recent spurt a sign of renewed life or just a blip?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t throw the party just yet. 40 year-olds don’t tend to have a great aging curve.

Dan Szymborski: And I realize that my last birthday before 40 is in a couple of weeks. Writers have a better aging curve than athletes do, though admittedly somewhat less remuneration.

Kyle: Who replaces Colon in ATL?

Dan Szymborski: In our hearts, nobody.

Dan Szymborski: In Atlanta, did something new pop today? I was mowing the lawn. The Braves aren’t generally a fan of recognizing sunk costs.

Fat Albert: Is Lamet rosterable in 12 teamers?

Dan Szymborski: If you’re in a bleak situation, his upside makes him rosterable. He’s got a really low short-term floor though and wouldn’t do it if I’m contending.

frank: trade manny machado for bogaerts and lamb in a dynasty?

Dan Szymborski: I would. Machado’s defense doesn’t benefit you, Lamb’s defense will never hurt you, and the O’s aren’t exactly helping with the positional qualification most years.

The warm side of the pillow: In a dyntasy I was offered Correa and Machado for Trout and Torres…thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: I think I’d take it.

David: Has the “flyball revolution” been a response to the age old pitching philosophy of keeping the ball down? And what will the next revolution look like if teams begin throwing more fastballs up in the zone (eg, Dodgers bullpen)?

Dan Szymborski: It’s always going to be strike-counterstrike-countercounterstrike. Baeball’s a game of reaction.

…: should the Angels try to sell anybody for near-MLB ready prospects while Trout is out? Do they even have any players with trade value?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think this changes the destiny of the Angels at all.

Dan Szymborski: They don’t have enough of value to get enough near-MLB ready prospects to make the team good.

Dan Szymborski: You pay a large premium for the near-MLB ready guys.

Dan Szymborski: Most of the team’s trade value is tied up in Trout.

Andy: If a disaster like the 3rd inning of the Braves-Angels game takes place, but nobody is watching it (because who’s watching ATL-LAA with no Freeman or Trout?), then did it really happen?

Dan Szymborski: All the Marlins home games are part of the statistical record, so yes.

Sam: With Pedey’s DL stint, even tho it’s short, and Panda’s volatility, is a trade imminent in Boston?

Dan Szymborski: Could be, but it’s not a great time of the year to make a trade.

Fat Albert: What’s gotten into Robbie Ray?

Robert: Has Robbie Ray turned a corner this year?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS had Ray 10th in pitcher WAR remaining coming into this season.

Dan Szymborski: It actually got into Ray last year, it was just hidden by an unsustainable BABIP

Kenley Janses: If my offense keeps scoring late, I may end up with 20 saves. Can we all finally agree this is a stupid stat?

Dan Szymborski: If we can’t all agree by 2017 after decades of this dumbfiretruck stat, nothing’s going to change it.

Joey Votto: If Zimmerman regresses to normalcy in the near future, I am the best first baseman in baseball?

Dan Szymborski: I’d take Goldy by a skosh.

Hannah Hochevar: Just another check-in about Manny Machado, who continues to swing out of his shoes without making much contact. I feel like he’s been caught up in the uppercut revolution but that it ain’t working for him… Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: Would like more data on his angles which I don’t have in front of me.

Dan Szymborski: last time I checked the plate discipline data for him (last week) he had actually swung less but also made less contact.

Dan Szymborski: Which would suggest it’s not a crazy theory. And while I get it from watching him, I like hard data.

Nick: What kind of end of season line would Avi Garcia need to put up for you to believe he is a +3 WAR player next year

Dan Szymborski: Probably about 4.5

Sorry: Carson Cistulli is too busy publishing a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast to bother with a queue today.

Dan Szymborski: He’s too busy reading from the Necronomicon.

Dan Szymborski: Or am *I* the antagonist? I can’t ever remember.

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Would you play me in chess? I’m wondering if you know more about the Ruy Lopez than Ray Ordonez?

Dan Szymborski: Rey Ordonez

Dan Szymborski: I used to play quite a bit of Ruy Lopez, though I didn’t like exchanging the bishop for the knight

Dan Szymborski: I tended to to play Ba4 and Qe2

Big Tuna: The Red Sox infield is in shambles. Is Devers a realistic option?

Dan Szymborski: It hink he is.

yojiveself: mazara iffb is 14% , pull rate is slightly down – is he going to reach 20 hr’s this season?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll come close.

Shaun: The Phils can’t block Hoskins much longer. He looks like a stud so far. Any chance they throw him or Joseph into RF or something?

Dan Szymborski: I actually wouldn’t be shocked if they traded Joseph this winter if he ends the year with interesting stats.

Dan Szymborski: That neither Joseph or Hoskins have played any of the OF (I’d assume HOskins more likely though I can’t imagine him being good out there) even as an experiment makes me think there’s not room in the org for both.

rustydude: No knock on ZiPs and other projection systems, but as useful as they are in the off season, they seem less useful in the ROS projections. They seem to lag behind trends that I can see when looking at day to day player performance. Do you concur? And if so, do you have anything on the boards to build into the model to increase accuracy?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve spent time working on the model and the reactiveness is what works best.

Dan Szymborski: People tend to overrate real improvement and real decline.

Steve: Did Starling Marte’s ROS projections (albeit with the missing 80 games) change based on the steroid revelation?

Dan Szymborski: No. Haven’t found any data that would justify an altered projection for steroid users.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve found no value to a dummy variable for a drug suspension. It has not improved projections as a group to have that as part of the model.

Tek: Luis Severino the real deal?

Dan Szymborski: I sure hope so, I like lookine less dumb than I did last year.

Dan Szymborski: Though preferably not against the O’s? Come on, Luis, I believed in you and didn’t declare you should just be moved to the bullpen!

Gregg: What do you think of Rizzo and Heyward leading the early NL All-Stars vote?

Dan Szymborski: You’re gonna have that with a popular team.

Dan Szymborski: Remember us dodging Omar Infante?

Dan Szymborski: Heyward’s hard to argue as the best at everything

Dan Szymborski: But Rizzo was amazing last year and I’d find voting for based on “April, May, June performance, but far more heavily weighted to April than June” Team to be a pointless exercise.

Dan Szymborski: Rizzo is at 289/380/532, a 145 OPS+, over the last calendar year. If we go strictly by performance, how could anything be much dumber than a game that rewards an arbitrary cross-section of early-season performance.

Dan Szymborski: The All-Star Game can’t even properly honor first-half performance if that’s all you go buy. April performance would be weighted far more heavily because the ballots are a combination of April ballots, April/May ballots, and April/May/June ballots

Dan Szymborski: Woudl I take Goldschmidt over Rizzo? I would. But it’s not crazy to vote for Rizzo.

Justin Smoak: Am I real, or have I been possessed by the thing from Twin Peaks?

Dan Szymborski: Trust Smoak a little more in one of his good spells than usual, but he’s had good runs that have people declaring him having turned the corner before

Dylan: Is Dan Straily actually really good?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say that.

Rusty: What is the trust level in Tyson Ross being a difference maker in Texas this year?

Dan Szymborski: None.

YKnotDisco?!: Serious question, I’m not trolling. If the Angels can talk Salmon outta retirement, should they trade for Pollock and move Trout to LF?

Dan Szymborski: heh

Jose Berrios: Am I a top 20 SP next year?

Dan Szymborski: I like Berrios, but that’s a bit aggressive

Matt: What does Yonder Alonso’s next contract look like? And does he get traded at the deadline? Who might be the buyer?

Dan Szymborski: Too much uncertainty to say now. He’s certainly raised it a lot

Robert: If ZiPS had Ray 10th in pitcher WAR remaining coming into the season, and he’s been great to start the year, are you saying you view him as a top 10 pitcher?

Dan Szymborski: That’s career.

Dan Szymborski: It had him 24th in WAR for 2017.

Los: Let’s say you estimate a player’s true talent (preseason) at 100 wRC+. Is ZiPS more like to believe a change in true talent if he runs a 50wRC+ for 3 months or a 150wRC+. Obviously the new estimate will be regressed heavily but which direction is a change easier to be identified.

Dan Szymborski: Depends on where it comes from

JeFF: why is quintana now considered ” meh ” goods, and Lester is considered elite Ace when they have identical stat lines this year when you throw out ERA? Lester 65IP 64H 23BB 67K in the NL, and Quintana 64IP 66H 24BB 64K’s in the AL? not to mention Q is 5 yrs younger and $70mil cheaper. in your opinion should Hahn come down on his ask price?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t had a lot of excitement about Lester right now.

Dan Szymborski: And yes, Hahn should come down on his price.

Dan Szymborski: he can’t trade Quintana at the price he wants.

Dan Szymborski: And Quintana’s not much value as a player

Dan Szymborski: (To the White Sox)

Tom: best buy-low you’d be going hard after right now?

Dan Szymborski: Kluber

…: Manny Machado’s average launch angle was actually higher last year. 14.6 degrees to 13.1 degrees. not a huge difference though

Dan Szymborski: Thanks

Dan Szymborski: That’s why I like data. I watch and attend a billion baseball games. But data collects information of this type far better than human brains though.

baby bull : do they Marlins run a profit every year? Any idea what percentage of gross income? I cant see anyone wanting to buy a franchise with 0 fans unless they are moving it to a different state

Dan Szymborski: I’d be surprised if they didn’t typically have a modest income.

Dan Szymborski: MLB finances are a bit complex, it dpeends on what you’re counting

History: Which US president would make the best DH? SP?

Dan Szymborski: Taft a good DH

Dan Szymborski: Did H.W. Bush play first base for Yale?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know if Gerald Ford played baseball but he was a significantly good athlete in football and he’d bea gainst presidents, not baeball players

Zach: After a god awful start in AAA, Austin Meadows seems to have turned a corner this past month and is on an absolute tear. With Marte’s suspension still a ways to go, should I be grabbing Meadows in fantasy?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t. I think the Pirates are happy having Meadows consolidate his gains

YKnotDisco?!: Can you explain Abreu (2.4 t-9th) and Pujols (1.5 t-18th) having positive BsR value?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t look at me. I’d design BsR differently

WILLLLLSON: What do you expect from W. Ramos when he comes back later next month? Steamer has him pegged at a .309 wOBA, below his career .320

Dan Szymborski: Injured catcher is a who knows!

Dan Szymborski: To the chess guy, email me (it’s in my twitter sig) and we can play some chess.

Dan Szymborski: But I’m very rusty. I haven’t played regularly for a long time.

Bork: What would someone have to do to you for you to hold a 3 year grudge of wanting to inflict pain upon them? Other then being Cistulli.

Dan Szymborski: Hurt my cat?

JT: Has Quintana’s trade value gone down, what would Yanks have to give up to acquire now

Dan Szymborski: The problem is I don’t think what they would accept for him has gone down.

Billy Beane: If the fangraphs staff (I’m counting you even though you mostly just chat/project) were the heads a Front Office with Cameron as GM and Longenhagen as head scout, how good do you think they would be? Probably not Theo-level good, but not Stewart-level bad, right?

Dan Szymborski: I think that if you took the whole group, it’d be pretty decent, because there’s a wide range of skillset among people.

Billy Beane: Yonder Alonso should start the All-Star game in the AL, but do you think there is any chance he actually will?

Dan Szymborski: Over Judge? No.

Zorn: Where are you at with Hunter Renfroe right now?

Dan Szymborski: Just friends.

Hannah Hochevar: Am I the only one who hears “Mookie Betts” and thinks “Bernie Goetz”?

Dan Szymborski: What?

Billy Beane: Saves are obviously dumb, but what did you think of Nate Silver’s Goose Egg? Interesting, or more work than it is worth?

Dan Szymborski: It’s better than saves for sure.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: You’d likely get more production out of Tim Salmon than Mike Carp at this point.

Billy Beane: Does ZIPS treat a drug suspension the same as an injury, then? As in, it knows that you missed 80 games but is agnostic as to why?

Dan Szymborski: Yup.

Dan Szymborski: Generic “time missed” I have as less than a generic injury.

Rest of Year: Who would you rather own for the rest of this season: Matt Harvey or Lamet?

Dan Szymborski: It’s weird to say this, but I think I’d take Lamet

Danny Salazar’s Elbow: Is Quintana droppable in a 10 team league?

Dan Szymborski: That’s too aggressive, even without knowing who is on yoru waiver wire

Jack: Is Chase Utley the greatest baserunner of all time?

Dan Szymborski: I think that’s Sabathia

Curious George: What percentage of questions would you estimate you usually get to answer?

Dan Szymborski: About 20%

Dan Szymborski: About 20% are complete nonsense.

Dan Szymborski: About 20% are way too specific about personal fantasy teams to be interesting to readers in large doses.

Dan Szymborski: So I answer about a-third of the ones I’d like to.

Don’t you forget about me: Given how well Thames did to start the year, is Jesus Aguilar being overlooked for how good he is?

Dan Szymborski: Well, Thames has done it in more playing time and he destroyed his minor league last few years while Aguilar was just kinda there.

Billy Beane: (Judge and Alonso don’t play the same position)

Dan Szymborski: Oh, I thought they had been listed as DHs on the ballot.

Dan Szymborski: But I guess Healy is the DH for Oakland on the ballot?

Dan Szymborski: (I don’t typically bother to vote and I watch games from the box and haven’t filled out a paper one in a long time)

Dan Szymborski: I did know Beltran was listed as an OF, so I assumed that MLB called Holliday an OF too. But they did properly call him a DH.

Agent Cooper: Should Salazar be dropped in a 10 team?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t

Trader joe: Do the Braves trade Jim Johnson by July 31?

Dan Szymborski: If they’re smart.

Dan Szymborski: But I’m never quite sure about the Braves.

Dan Szymborski: Braves actually keep their cards preetty close. They sometimes hint absurdly good things about their team but then act more rational

YKnotDisco?!: Are you and Robbie Ray just friends? Considering you got into him last year.

Dan Szymborski: We keep it professional.

El Duderino: Ideal HR Derby this year?

Dan Szymborski: Pitchers hitting.

JG: So with real money Monopoly did you play until one person had it all? I imagine deciding when to stop could be a source of arguments…

Dan Szymborski: No, we would play timed games.

Dan Szymborski: Whatever was still in the bank would just be split up evenly.

Frustrated owner: How do you deal with a toxic commissioner in an otherwise good fantasy league?

Dan Szymborski: Get a majority to pressure the commish or leave.

Frustrated owner: How are the cats?

Dan Szymborski: Appear good at the moment. Though I heard someone barfing in the distance that I’m going to have to go find after this chat.

Dan Szymborski: Galileo had his yearly checkup and got his Arby’s. Thyroid slightly elevated, but not at the level where treatment is recommended yet.

Dan Szymborski: But he turned 18 in January, so that’s pretty good for a cat his age.

To Curious George: Great question. Now I know whether or not to wait in this queue. Glad we’re getting answers for the all important President’s as baseball players. Lol

Dan Szymborski: I’m a sucker for goofy questions.

Ray: Do you think Ray Searage can help turn Glasnow into a much better pitcher by next season?

Dan Szymborski:

joe: severino or berrios?

Dan Szymborski: Severino

Jerry: How many years until the Padres are relevant?

Dan Szymborski: I dunno. 4?

San Dimas High School Football: If you were in charge, would you promote Ryan McMahon to AAA?

Dan Szymborski: I would. He’s clearly over his really disappointing 2016

El Duderino: Why would Judge be listed as a DH??? Matt Holiday says “Sup bro”

Dan Szymborski: Because the ballot tends to look backwards much better than forwards

Tom: How do you deal with an owner who continually makes bad trade offers?

Dan Szymborski: Avoidance? And passive-aggressive mockery.

Danny Salazar’s Elbow: Kyle Schwarber a good buy low in fantasy?

Dan Szymborski: League needs to be a good size unless you get C qualifying for him.

El Duderino: Should 76ers Trade down for the 5th and 10th pick?

Dan Szymborski: I would.

Blue Morpho: Do you write in cursive?

Dan Szymborski: Just my signature.

Dan Szymborski: It’s like I write much of anything anymore.

Best Baseball Brawl: Wouldn’t the best baseball fight of all time be a Chris Young and Chris Young vs. Chris Davis and Khris Davis?

Dan Szymborski: It’d be hard to pronounce.

Glass: Is David Dahl the most fragile young player in the game?

Dan Szymborski: He’s certainly looking on the risky side. But I don’t want to label him too quickly.

Jack: Why doesn’t anybody suggest Colin Kaepernick giving minor league pitching a shot if the NFL is really done with him? He was a much more talented baseball player than another certain ex-NFL QB currently struggling in single-A

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll latch onto a team over the summer.

hscer: Ba4/Qe2, that’s what the guy who lost to HAL played!

Dan Szymborski: It’s a fairly standard line

Dan Szymborski: I forget the name that line is called.

Dan Szymborski: I think it was similar to a pitcher but I can’t think of it

Mark: Since you like goofy questions, how much different would baseball be if we called walks BoBs instead of BBs? Thanks for the chat btw

Dan Szymborski: About the same but would sound funnier. The word bob sounds funny

Padres Fan: NEVER! Or until the ghost of Tony Gwynn returns.

Danny Salazar’s Elbow: If you were a police officer, were 100% certain of a man’s guilt, but could only get him convicted in a court of law by planting evidence, would you do it?

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: I’m a lot like my grandfather, sometimes obnoxiously *over* principled.

Dan Szymborski: I remember when my sister broke my calculator from college when she went to college

Dan Szymborski: It was this sweet one

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: I told her she could replace it after college when she got a job.

Dan Szymborski: She offered bo buy me a new, top of the line model

Dan Szymborski: But I only wanted a used one since that’s what was broken

Dan Szymborski: And to put the F1-F8 keys wrong (by rows instead of columns) because I had put the buttons back in wrong order once after opening it up and cleaning a coke spill

Frustrated owner: Have any fangraphs writers even become good friends with players through the job?

Dan Szymborski: You should ask Eno.

Dan Szymborski: It’d be weird if I tracked friendships.

YKnotDisco?!: Since you are a sucker for Goofy questions, Is Goofy really a dog? And how come he can talk and Pluto can’t?

Dan Szymborski: Different breed of dog.

Babe Lincoln: How good is Michael Conforto?

Dan Szymborski: Very

Babe Lincoln: Best Conforto nickname suggestion?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually have one. And mine are stupid.

Slurm: While i enjoy and appreciate the guys at Fangraphs doing these chats, I wish there was a way to eliminate questions that the same people ask in every chat each week. It is so boring reading the same questions being asked in every chat. I know, you guys just randomly pick the questions. It’s still boring.

Miguel R: Are you a internet troll?

Dan Szymborski: I’m a journalist, so to a degree, yes.

Pie: I haven’t played the Ruy Lopez in ages, I’ve been a fan of how the Italian opening has been going for me

Dan Szymborski: I find it hard to get beneficial imbalances there.

Dan Szymborski: Or found it. I’ve played almost no chess in the last 10-15 years.

Jerry: who is the worst manager in MLB?

Dan Szymborski: YOst

Frustrated owner: Pluto is goofys brother and he can’t talk because he has a disability

Dan Szymborski: Wait, are they brothers?

Frustrated owner: So goofy helps take care of him

Moltar: A few weeks ago a cat followed my wife and I home, he’s a sweet little guy who was not chipped, nobody seems to be looking for him, so we adopted him and now have a cat. We named him Cat Harvey because the night we found him was Matt Harvey’s first start after the suspension. I don’t have a question, you’re just the only person on the internet who cares about cats and baseball.

Dan Szymborski: Calcaterra likes cats and baseball too

Danny Salazar’s Elbow: Nickname idea: Michael “only a matter of time until my career is derailed by injury” Conforto

Cee Jay: These pretzels are making me thirsty

Dan Szymborski: OK, it’s a quarter-after and I gotta go find that barf.

Dan Szymborski: What’s worse than finding the barf is not finding it.

Don Conforto: Don’t you know I would use all my power to prevent something like that from happening?

Dan Szymborski: As always, you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs, and at DSzymborski on Twitter.