Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/5/14

Dan Szymborski: BOOM.

Comment From Phillip
Thoughts on Springer? He’s killing me. Would you drop him for Polanco when he comes up or Joyce now if I’m punting steals?

Dan Szymborski: If you let 70 PA change how you feel about a player, you’re going to get the downside of bad stretches and give the good ones to the other owners.

Comment From Dan
Tigers: Good at baseball?

Dan Szymborski: Their bullpen is worse than a 4chan sex meme, but otherwise, they’re a solid team thanks to the ridonkulous rotation.

Comment From tommy
SHAKALAKA

Dan Szymborski: I said NOTHING about shakalaka.

Comment From Cory
So just how good is Drew Smyly? Looked incredibly impressive on Saturday.

Dan Szymborski: He’s a solid starter, a decent 3 on most teams.

Comment From Ryan
Reds are looking a little thin at SP and OF– any thoughts on moves they should make?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I don’t think there’s a lot they are going to do. It’s too soon to start throwing their low-level pitching prospects around, most of the ongoing problems stem from a lack of offensive depth.

Dan Szymborski: And that die was cast over the offseason.

Dan Szymborski: Pitching-wise, their best bet was for Robert Stephenson to “Go Wacha” this year, but he’s been a little meh at AA control-wise.

Comment From American League Hustle
Hi Dan. Hope you had a fabulous weekend. So can you give me the skinny on James Jones? I know next to nothing about him. Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: 4th/5th OF type. College prospect, wasn’t advanced aggressively because his performance didn’t warrant it (Cal League repeater)

Dan Szymborski: Possibly a useful role player, but I don’t think more than that.

Comment From Snid
ROS Shields, Hudson, or Minor?

Dan Szymborski: Shields in real life, fantasy it’s closer and I may go with Hudson or Minor.

Dan Szymborski: Can’t say I’m disappointed that Hudson’s been pitching so well – I’ve always liked him and ZiPS thought he was one of the best contracts of the offseason (and projected a career-low ERA, though that’s mostly a product of 2014 SF)

Comment From infield hit
what’s the deal with Everth Cabrera? he need a DL stint to rest the knee or does is he just not a good baseball player?

Dan Szymborski: He’s better than this, but 2013 reeked of career year.

Comment From Bick
Brian Dozier… Wow!

Dan Szymborski: Pretty much. His patience also improved last year from his rookie year, though you didn’t really see it in his stats until this year

Dan Szymborski: And it’s not like he had one of those early BABIP streaks or something.

Comment From Nick
What would a player like Brendan Ryan hit right now in Division I baseball. What about Mike Trout?

Dan Szymborski: DOn’t want to pin an exact number, but Ryan would hit well. Mike Trout would hit so well that he’d simply be IBBed every time.

Comment From RotoLando
Yelich seems to be flying under the radar. How would you rate him so far?

Dan Szymborski: Decent but not overwhelming, which is kinda what I thought of him as a prospect.

Comment From Bubbles (BALT)
Has Ubaldo figured it out?

Dan Szymborski: April. Now it’s May!

Comment From Will
Would singleton be up right now if it wasn’t for Super 2, or does he still have legitimate contact issues he needs to work on?

Dan Szymborski: I have no doubt that service time issues are on their mind to a degree, but after a year that was absolutely atrocious to his prospect standing, there’s something to be said for letting him beat up minor league pitchers for a few months and get back into that groove.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not keeping the Astros from winning the NL West after all.

Dan Szymborski: I *still* want to type NL Central.

Comment From Guest
Will Carlos Santana out earn Prince Fielder in fantasy?

Dan Szymborski: In the end, I believe he will.

Comment From gregory
Pitcher most likely to keep up his early-season success: Jesse Chavez, Corey Kluber, or Ian Kennedy?

Dan Szymborski: Probably Kluber, though the A’s have some necromancy going on.

Dan Szymborski: Kennedy’s success will be sustained, but only because it’s actually league-average success, goosed into fantasy value by the magic of Petco.

Comment From RotoLando
Are a couple of dead presidents going to fight each other for our amusement, or what?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been working on a piece all morning, so couldn’t put together the fight for today. There will be one next week!

Comment From john
Colorado: destroyer of faith and goodwill of Mets fans everywhere

Dan Szymborski: Mets fans have faith? All the Mets fans I know are always ready for self-immolation!

Comment From Michael
when does polanco get called up and is taves up beofore the ASB?

Dan Szymborski: I still think their conservatism means that Polanco is up by June.

Dan Szymborski: in June

Dan Szymborski: not by June.

Dan Szymborski: Oops, there’s a second part, isn’t there

Dan Szymborski: Taveras really depends, I think, on if they’ve truly given on Bourjos already. If they can find starts for him, he’ll be up by the All-Star Break, but if not, there’s no reason to have him riding the bench

Comment From Sleepless
Brad Miller…lots of sites have him ranked decently going forward…but why? Any signs of life?

Dan Szymborski: April.

Comment From Guest
So is your answer today going to be “April just ended” since you can’t just say “April” anymore?

Dan Szymborski: I can still *refer* to April!

Comment From Snid
Does it bother you when supposed MLB announcers say: “Tie goes to the runner”?

Dan Szymborski: It’s obnoxious, but for *first* base, there’s an argument that it’s true. The rule book 6.0-something references the batter is out if fielder tags him or the base *before* he touches first, so in that interpretation, you could say that it’s true.

Dan Szymborski: But there aren’t really ties, just things so close that the human eye can’t differentiate.

Comment From Jordan
How many aces are there in MLB right now, according to how you personally define the term? Who are they?

Dan Szymborski: Personally, I consider a 120 ERA+ the “ace” line. The average best starter on a team has an ERA+ of 114 historically (Chris Jaffe), so that 120 is kind of well above average for the best starter on a team, which I think is a possible reasonable line

Dan Szymborski: I think I had like 13 pitchers projected at 120+,

Comment From Michael
is Jim Johnson the closer right now?

Dan Szymborski: That appears to be the case, though the A’s are still “officially” doing a committee and he’ll have a short leash

Comment From Lenard
Have you played any Age of Wonders 3? If so, thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: I haev not yet.

Comment From RK
I know that Blanks is no world beater, but would you pull the plug on Alonso at this point?

Dan Szymborski: I’d be close to. I’ve never been sold on Alonso, never saw him as having or developing the secondary skills needed to be a successful low power 1B

Dan Szymborski: Blanks has been so up and down and injured, that if he’s healthy now, I’d want to see what I have in him, given that he’s also been crushing the ball.

Comment From bob
Pretty excited about Rizzo and Castro right now as a Cubs fan, but how good can Wellington Castillo be?

Dan Szymborski: I think he peaks at around 110 OPS+ ability. Biftec is not a young player, more of a finished product at this point

Comment From Anahigh
Skaggs…hiccup, or a sign of things to come?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be fine.

Comment From Tim
How is the Royals offense so atrocious? Abreu is tied with them in homers. It’s almost ridiculous at this point, the number of top prospects that they turn into busts is insane. Even Salvador Perez is sucking now.

Dan Szymborski: The lack of power is truly disturbing. Hard to tell what part of that is KC’s issues with getting prospects over the finish line and what part is them just having a bad April.

Dan Szymborski: Royals do a lot of stupid things, have a GM who should be a scouting director and a manager who should be spending afternoons sleeping in a hammock in his backyard, but some of the sucking is hard to blame them direclty for

Comment From john
before the season, what were the odds that dillon gee would be the best mets starter? and why doesnt he get any love?

Dan Szymborski: Finesse righties walk a very thin line – his peripherals aren’t great.

Comment From Bret
I don’t know how likely it is, but how good can Drew Hutchison be if he keeps something close to his performance thus far?

Dan Szymborski: He’s been really good, certainly looking even better than his solid ERA.

Dan Szymborski: He’s making the case for being a legit #2 type if he’s healthy

Comment From MuscleCarMom
The Indians traded FOR Bauer and now are letting Tomlin have his spot. Whyo?

Dan Szymborski: They’ve had an odd fascination with Tomlin. It’s like one of those pop culture fads that were *slightly* popular, but years later when nobody really cares anymore. Tomlin is baseball’s Sanjaya Malakar.

Comment From tommy
thoughts on Verlander? line is good, but his peripherals are not so much

Dan Szymborski: His FIP is 3. You are a greedy, greedy man.

Comment From Beer Loving Dog born in a Volcano
Is Roenias Elias legitimately good?

Dan Szymborski: Command’s too spotty.

Comment From RotoLando
BOOM! I’m eating your grapes, bro!

Comment From Bret
Is Rickie Weeks done?

Dan Szymborski: The toaster’s one, the butter’s soft, and the eggs are poaching.

Comment From Iko Uwais
Troy Tulowitzki is hitting .400/.500/.730. No question, just feel like people should be aware.

Dan Szymborski: Tulowitzki Awareness is an important social thing.

Dan Szymborski: I was talking a bit about Tulo on the southsidesox podcast. Essentially, you *know* that his numbers will come down, but you also know he’s so phenomenally talented that at the back of your mind you think what IF this is the crazy season he’s had in his pocket?

Comment From Leif Erikson
Watch Dogs game, any interest?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, though I don’t tend to pre-order things unless it’s a safe purchase (like a Paradox game using a specific, known engine)

Comment From Guest
When did Cain hit the dl?

Dan Szymborski: mid-April, pulled his groin

Comment From K26dp
Who should the Braves play at 2B – Pena, Pastornicky, La Stella, or some combination?

Dan Szymborski: Probably Pastornicky, even if he has the occasionally hilarious bungled play

Comment From LA Face with an Oakland Booty
Oakland 1-3 Sp’s are great, but is/are Straily and/or Milone ever going to figure it out?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll be fine.

Comment From Jared
Would you take the over or under on 14.5 home runs for Hosmer this season?

Dan Szymborski: At this point, under, though that’s not a bad over/under line

Comment From Pogue009
Tulo is unconscious ZIPS now has him at 7.5WAR in 134 games for 2014

Comment From GK
Can Nate Eovaldi keep this up?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. Even if he comes back somewhat, big changes in K and BB rate tend to be baked in pretty quickly

Dan Szymborski: And Eovaldi’s always been a guy who you think has the stuff but never quite got the results you expected from it

Comment From STiVo
Does ZiPS look at data from rehab assignments?

Dan Szymborski: No, haven’t found much value in the rehab stats.

Comment From Horace
Is fouling off pitches a measurable skill? Seems like some players are better than others but is it statistically significant or measurable? And is there a relation between number of fouls in an at bat and the outcome of the AB (ex. 5 fouled off pitches results in a base hit/walk more than an out?)

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t looked at it directly, but I expect it to be a measurable skill, but one highly correlated with contact.

Comment From Ringtone Composer
Maybe your canned response today should be “Cinco de Mayo,” instead of last week’s response of “April.” Like, why am I drinking margaritas at work at 12:15? Cinco de Mayo!

Comment From Josh
I’m guessing somebody from the Front Office had a talking to with Terry Collins about Eric Young Jr/Juan Lagares situation..

Comment From Kojis achy shoulder
Complete the date: Uehara will be broken down and unusable by ________

Dan Szymborski: 2100. Most people reading this will be dead too.

Comment From Seamus Calrissian
I think we need an investigation into whether Nick Markakis is actually 50 years old, and whether he’s taking performance-depleting drugs.

Comment From Rangers Fan
Worried about Billy Butler at all Dan?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, though I have no idea how to fix him (I’m not a hitting coach)

Comment From Stanatee the Manatee
You wanted to type “NL Central” so bad that you put NL West instead of AL West. Old habits die hard

Dan Szymborski: DAMMIT

Comment From Meowmix
What are the numbers like on minor league contracts? Does it depend on years of service, the level you play at, some combination, or some other factor?

Dan Szymborski: Peanuts.

Dan Szymborski: Split level contracts, you’ll get into low 6 figures, but other than that, lower

Comment From Neal Huntingdon
Why do people keep asking the same question about Gregory Polanco every week? It’s obvious what I’m doing here…

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, you’re trying to make SZYMBORSKI decide when the Pirates call up Polanco, so if he happens to do poorly, don’t blame us, blame that FAT POLACK SZYMBORSKI. I’m onto you guys.

Comment From CMR
If Oscar the Destroyer gets called up on, say, June 1st, what would ZIPS say he’d produce?

Dan Szymborski: Probably 770-800ish OPS

Comment From Conrad
If Tulo averaged 155-160 games a season in a 15+ year career, where does he rank all time for SS? How much does he lose to games missed by injury?

Dan Szymborski: He’s going to get up there either way. His injury record is probably a *bit* overstated. He’s not Ripken, but he’s not Eric Davis either. He usually at least manages to get onto the field most of the time in most season

Comment From Oden
PInto tore it up in SSS last year but rarely walked, struggling this year, but walking more. Is true talent level in between (260-ish) with mediocre eye, or is there a hole he can’t close that MLB pitching is exploiting? Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s just that he’s an OK talent rather than a real offensive plus on the easy side of the defensive spectrum. It’s not like he can’t hit a curve, I’ve seen him acrush a few pretty good ones.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve also seen him look awful against good off-speed stuff or good fastballs, but that’s like most players!

Comment From Alex Guerrero
Dee Gordon, how real is he? Am I going to get a shot at that 2B spot or am I a AAA player?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t start writing christmas letters to Gordon just yet. He is making good contact, but he’s not a >.400 BABIP guy.

Dan Szymborski: Just checked – 90.7% contact this yera.

Comment From gregory
Do you ever use “calendar year” stats to evaluate players?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t found much additional level – the offseason layoff is relevant.

Comment From John Stamos
Why does the name Keuchel sound so dirty?

Dan Szymborski: Not as dirty as Charlie Furbush

Comment From Lars
If you were a player, what song would you have playing on your way to the plate?

Dan Szymborski: the big tune from the 4th movement of Berlioz’s Symphonie Fantastique

Dan Szymborski: It is a march to the scaffold, after all.

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Would you like to see a sort of skills competition in the AS Game? (for Example, fastest around the bases, Longest throw, and pitcher accuracy?)

Dan Szymborski: I am a fan of that concept.

Dan Szymborski: Holy crap you guys are asking a lot of questions today. My answer % may be below 10%, which is unusually low for me.

Comment From Norm
The “red flags” attributed to Darvish this year, do they mostly go away if you take away his starts against OAK, his kryptonite?

Dan Szymborski: I ain’t flying any red flags with Darvish.

Comment From Steven
Is Mike Moustakas a lost cause?

Dan Szymborski: He’s going to come around and hit better (after all, his seasonal line is the past and it’s only relevant to the extent it makes the future worse), but he ought to rapidly be working his way out of KC’s long-term plans

Comment From Dan
Have you watched Matt Kemp? He looks like he may be close to breaking out, maybe not 2011 Kemp but a top 25 OF

Dan Szymborski: He’s going to be a good HR candidate, but he jus tlooks sloppy at the plate to me, muddling through based on simply his levels of talent, which remain.

Dan Szymborski: And he moves in centerfield like one of those electric football players

Comment From Joe Gatineau
what would you do if you won 10 million $$$ (Canadian rules on winnings, not taxed)

Dan Szymborski: Invest 9 million conservatively, save a million for crazy obnoxious shit.

Comment From Guest
How come you dont have a podcast? will you in the future?

Dan Szymborski: I never wanted to do a podcast just to do one. Still thinking of the spin needed to do a good one. I’m a guest on podcasts and radio a lot, though, so there are options to remedy if you have a curious desire to hear me talk.

Dan Szymborski: I’m also a bit self-conscious about my voice – my voice is kind of thin and reedy and nasally, and certainly not with the bass to describe it as some kind of velvety chocolate.

Comment From Joe Gatineau
According to B-Ref, Tulo is on pace for an 18 WAR season…. Thats right 18.

Comment From Table
QS league, Tyler Skaggs or Ubaldo Jimenez?

Dan Szymborski: Probably still Jimenez, though he does have a tendency to have a lot of really good 5.2 IP shutouts because he sometimes gets up there in pitches

Comment From The Dude
How many ML ready players could the Angels get in return for Trout?

Dan Szymborski: All of them

Comment From OSeamus
Who was a player that had the largest gap between major and minor league stats – WAY better in MLB than MiLB? anyone come to mind?

Dan Szymborski: Hanley Ramirez did, though he was also very young at the time

Comment From Josh
I’m already listening to fellow Mets fans freak out about David Wright’s “slow” start. Can you calm these idiots down?

Dan Szymborski: If you could calm idiots down, they wouldn’t be idiots.

Comment From kevinthecomic
I think the ‘Cain’ in question was Matt Cain, who went on DL yesterday (05/04), retroactive to 04/24, due to cut on finger caused by kitchen knife, FYI………

Dan Szymborski: Ah.

Comment From Lars
Te Mets, Marlins, and Phillies are all supposed to stink this year but have winning records. Is this an April illusion?

Dan Szymborski: Phillies and Marlins probably, but I’ve been talking up the Mets as a .500ish team most of the offseason if they made good decisions

Comment From Guest
Is Andrelton Simmons a top 10 SS, for fantasy purposes? (dynasty and non)

Dan Szymborski: Pretty close. Preseason, ZiPS had him as the #11 fantasy SS, which would obviously be higher in dynasty

Comment From MJC
Need pitching. Trade Blackmon for Cueto if my replacement OF wOuld be Maybin or

Dan Szymborski: If you can trade Blackmon for that, I would.

Comment From Guest
Why does it seem everyone is disappointed by the Nats? 17-14 while missing Ramos,Zimmerman, Fister and now Harper is pretty impressive IMO.

Dan Szymborski: The Nats had the Disappointing Tag for the first half of 2013 and people are too lazy to update their mental storylines

Comment From Ryan
LaRoche at .270/.360/.480 sound realistic ROS?

Dan Szymborski: Little too spicy for me

Comment From Jack Lamberts Facemask
Whats the worst thing about Fantasy Baseball?

Dan Szymborski: when people playing fantasy have trouble separating fantasy and real value.

Dan Szymborski: I play fantasy too, but if you let fantasy evaluations crawl over into real life, you’re going to have some real miscalculations

Dan Szymborski: Also, I wish typical fantasy specified centerfield and corner outfield.

Comment From Josh
My preseason bet of the year: Mets over 73 wins. A) Money in the bank, B) Looking good, or C) Loooooong way to go

Dan Szymborski: B

Dan Szymborski: Actually, ZiPS is giving them 82% to hit 74 or more wins for the year

Comment From Adrian
Doug Fister sounds pretty dirty to me.

Comment From Dellin Betances
Are you impressed by the fact that I am striking out ALMOST 4 guys per hit allowed?

Dan Szymborski: Very much so.

Comment From Jake
Is the 2016 CBA gonna be way more player friendly than any recent contract? With Insurance, general talent scarcity, stricter aging curves, longer and bigger contracts, more information, the explosion in money, more frequent injuries and a strong union, it seems like the players are getting more and more leverage. What are the odds on reduced team control, no qualifying offer (or similar conceptual replacement), arbitration reforms, etc?

Dan Szymborski: I see no reason to think the players will get anything juicy in next contract. They may get some QO reform, but probably not anything more than that.

Dan Szymborski: MLB has effectively used steroids to divide the union.

Comment From Dan Szymborski
How do you know which Dan is real?

Dan Szymborski: My general ridiculousness is a tough emulation job.

Comment From Zach
You wouldn’t take one of those million dollars and go to Funky Town? Seriously?

Dan Szymborski: Funky Town sounds like it would smell of sweat and shame.

Comment From JBD
How do you pronounce “SQL”? Is it like “sequel”?

Dan Szymborski: I do, but there are SQL snobs that get mad at that.

Comment From DL80
Robinson Cano big difference between minors and majors

Dan Szymborski: Yup, Cano’s another good example.

Comment From Meh
What would you do with Dan Uggla? He’s been rather unproductive up to this point.

Dan Szymborski: If teams converted their aging veterans into gelatin, Uggla would be making Bill Cosby really happy soon.

Comment From tommy
What are you wearing right now?

Dan Szymborski: Dark green henley t-shirt and blue and yellow gym shorts. Turned on yet? Smoking.

Comment From Anthony
Prospect pitcher stash – Gausman, Bradley, Heaney or Meyers?

Dan Szymborski: In a keeper, I think still Gausman

Comment From Herkermer
Dan, whats the best “guitar” band in the world right now?

Dan Szymborski: assuming all those quirky indie pop bands that I like as much as hipsters are out, Titus Andronicus?

Comment From Chris
non-Keeper, still Gausman this year?

Dan Szymborski: This year, yes.

Comment From Guest
With a retroactive dl stint does it go back to matt cain’s last start?

Dan Szymborski: Retroactive rules are 10 days at most and they have to go back to the injury. That leaves a little wiggle room, but not much, in injury determination

Comment From Guest
Are you worried about Everth Cabrera without PEDs

Dan Szymborski: No.

Comment From Bo
From a purely baseball perspective, should the Angels consider letting another team overpay for Mike Trout? They’d in theory reduce the risk of injury, regression, etc across multiple good players.

Dan Szymborski: Always depends on the price. You price these things into your salary offer.

Dan Szymborski: There’s only so far you can spread things around – you have a limited number of positions to get those 40 WAR.

Dan Szymborski: And on that note, time to shuffle off for another week. Thanks for joining me, everybody. As usual, you can find my work at ESPN.com, projections and chats at FG, and general obnoxiousness that you’ll stop reading after a day or two at DSzymborski on Twitter.