Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/6/13
May 6, 2013
| 11:58 |
: Szymborski ist angekommen. Zittern unter seiner nerdlichen Blick!
|
| 11:59 |
Soriano or Minor RoS for fantasy? |
| 11:59 |
: Depends what you need, really.
|
| 11:59 |
Will Ian Kennedy rebound? |
| 12:00 |
: Yeah, but he’s more like 2012 and 2010 than 2011.
|
| 12:01 |
Marcell Ozuna have a good year? |
| 12:01 |
: ZiPS already had him nearly a major leaguer despite little high level performance and he did nothing at AA that would make it downgrade him
|
| 12:02 |
What would you put the odds of Yu Darvish getting 300Ks this season at? |
| 12:02 |
: That’s going to be tough. He probably needs to average 7 a start to hit 300 – he’s near his ceiling of what his K rate can be, so it’s not going to get better
|
| 12:03 |
Just a bad start for Niese? |
| 12:03 |
: Normally, I’d say “April” or “First Week of May” but the big uptick in walks is troubling.
|
| 12:03 |
do you need to Adjust zips(ros) now that Bucholz is throwing a spitter? |
| 12:03 |
: I only know what I can prove.
|
| 12:04 |
: Until I have reason to believe otherwise, Clay Buchholz is guilty of one count of dirty forearm.
|
| 12:04 |
whats the deal with marco estrada? how much of his struggles can we pin on that larger-than-life hr/fb rate? |
| 12:05 |
: Last time I checked, it was something crazy like 1-in-4 that won’t stay
|
| 12:05 |
: Though it’s not the ideal park for him.
|
| 12:05 |
Thoughts on Bryce Harper / umpire interaction? |
| 12:05 |
: Bring on the robots.
|
| 12:06 |
thoughts on these guys off to rough starts?: Bonifacio, Vogelsong, Quentin |
| 12:07 |
: Not super worried about Vogelsong yet, Bonifacio will be better, but not relaly all that good, Quentin will be fine, though I’m not a fan of him personally anymore
|
| 12:07 |
: Bonifacio, of course, is better in fantasy than real life
|
| 12:07 |
This Hector Santiago guy have some sneaky JDLR type or even a meh Niese-esque year ahead of him? |
| 12:08 |
is Kevin Slowey suddenly a must-own in a 15+ team mixed leauge? |
| 12:08 |
: oops
|
| 12:08 |
: sorry
|
| 12:09 |
: Santiago’s stuff doesn’t blow you away, but results matter, too. ZiPS and Steamer both are way happier with him now
|
| 12:09 |
: As for Slowey, no. He’s an interesting flier, but you’ve almost certainly got the bulk of his 2013 value already
|
| 12:09 |
the zips robot is always being accused of bias. perhaps it’s the perfect candidate to be the first robot umpire? |
| 12:10 |
: ZiPS is too prone to anger.
|
| 12:10 |
:
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| 12:10 |
Frieri setting up when Madson returns? Kind of a similar dude to Kenley Jansen no? |
| 12:10 |
: For one, I’m not going to believe in Madson’s return until I see it.
|
| 12:11 |
: But I think he’s going to have a harder time getting it back now.
|
| 12:12 |
: Not a lot has gone right for the Angels this year, so they’re going to be less keen on tinkering. But a healthy Madson pitching well will be a threat if Frieri starts having walk issues.
|
| 12:12 |
Thoughts on Jose Fernandez and Alex Cobb? Which would you hang on to? |
| 12:12 |
: Jose Fernandez, but only because you imposed such a cruel choice upon me.
|
| 12:12 |
do you buy the apparent gains Dee Gordon has made so far this season? |
| 12:12 |
: A *little* more, but still not that excited.
|
| 12:13 |
will middlebrooks. is there a book out on him right now or just a slow start? im starting to worry he wont turn it around. |
| 12:14 |
: People were mad at me about his projection going into the season (255/292/434), but that’s where I think he is.
|
| 12:14 |
: But he’s obviously better than he is – he doesn’t have a BABIP ability less than that of a pitcher
|
| 12:14 |
Manny Machado is really, really good |
| 12:15 |
: As I said last weak, Machado is so good over there at third that you can’t help wonder if he’s an All-Star shortstop that the Orioles are playing out of position
|
| 12:15 |
Is there something wrong in Chicago? Neither the Cubs nor Sox seem to know what a walk is. |
| 12:16 |
: All that califlower in the giardiniera makes them want to be nearer to the facilities when they’re not out on the field.
|
| 12:16 |
How much do you expect Starling Marte to come back to earth – or is his current level of play sustainable? |
| 12:17 |
: His BABIP is like .400 which’ll come down. With a normal BABIP, he’s having more ofa 270/335/470 season, which seems like a more realistic level for a player with his ample, but sub-McCutchen abilities.
|
| 12:18 |
Who now has the “ugliest player in baseball” title? Ben Molina or Corey Hart? |
| 12:18 |
: As someone who was once described in an email as looking like a cross between Goering and Hitchens, I’m not comfortable making that judgment.
|
| 12:18 |
If you had to pick one to make the playoffs, which and why: Indians/White Sox |
| 12:19 |
: Indians more interesting upside.
|
| 12:19 |
Two questions asking the same thing: how will Duda’s (new found) plate discipline work with/against the (manager’s) pressure of batting cleanup? Or, what do you think Duda’s end of season numbers will look like? |
| 12:19 |
: He’s got a good cushion but I think he’ll still end up in 350/470 range.
|
| 12:20 |
: I think his walk rate will stay impressive. He’s not swinging at *anything* out of the strike zone
|
| 12:20 |
ahh here we go… Do you like Jesse Biddle as a long term Keeper and if so,when do you see him being a steady contributor. |
| 12:21 |
: I do like him, and 2015ish. He’s a dude that looks like a solid pitcher, too
|
| 12:22 |
offensively, jean segura or starlin castro ROS? |
| 12:22 |
: still castro
|
| 12:22 |
As a Darvish owner last yr, I was skeptical that his control issues would just go poof for this yr. Am I stupid or will that regress? |
| 12:23 |
: I don’t know enough about you to tell you if you’re stupid.
|
| 12:23 |
: But I think you did miss something, which I spent all year arguing about last year
|
| 12:23 |
: Darvish was essentially a rookie and while NPB is slightly stronger than AAA
|
| 12:23 |
: It’s *different* than AAA because they offensive philosophies are slightly different over there.
|
| 12:24 |
: I probably talked about this in half my chats, but Darvish was in a league in which there’s less of that mindset about waiting for the pitch and accepting a walk
|
| 12:24 |
Heyward still good for 20/20 when he returns? |
| 12:25 |
: He’s going to fall short of 20 SB
|
| 12:25 |
At this point, nearly 800 PA’s into his MLB career, should we just accept that is this who Brett Lawrie is – a .270 hitter who doesn’t walk with 20 HR/15 SB ability and a tremendous glove? Or is there still a lot of room to grow? |
| 12:25 |
: Depends on his health. It’s hard to judge a guy who always has something wrong with him.
|
| 12:25 |
ZiPS has Patrick Corbin posting a 4.10 ERA ROS – you taking the over or under on that? |
| 12:25 |
: Under slightly.
|
| 12:25 |
: (as in ERA lower/better)
|
| 12:26 |
why isn’t Lou Whitaker in the HOF and why isn;t there more discussion of it?> |
| 12:26 |
: Because the BBWAA does a monumentally shitballs job of voting in HoFers.
|
| 12:27 |
: The BBWAA voting record is the journalist equivalent of those dudes that rob a bank wearing their company uniform with their name embroidered on the front.
|
| 12:27 |
: Todd Akin knows more about legitimate rape than the BBWAA knows about legitimate Hall of Famers.
|
| 12:27 |
Francisco Liriano makes his debut for the Pirates on Saturday. In the offseason, you were a big fan of the signing. Now that he’s here, do you still think he can be a difference maker? |
| 12:28 |
: Maybe a game or two, but that can be enough if the division stays close.
|
| 12:28 |
: But remember, I like Liriano more than most.
|
| 12:28 |
I thought Manny Machado was going to hit a wall and have a “sophomore slump.” Guess I was wrong Dan? |
| 12:28 |
: Yes. Sophomore slump doesn’t really exist as its generally defined.
|
| 12:28 |
: A lot of it is the selection bias – a rookie is more likely to get a job when they’re overperforming.
|
| 12:29 |
: But Machado didn’t get his job on the basis of overperforming, but on Mark Reynolds being fawful at third.
|
| 12:29 |
: Now, is he a 300/350/500 guy now? Probably not, but he’s a good player.
|
| 12:29 |
Which one if any of these trades would you make, Hamilton for Choo, Kemp or Cespedes? |
| 12:29 |
: All.
|
| 12:30 |
What’s wrong with Medlen and is he going to be better? |
| 12:30 |
: if you’re worried about a guy for having a <3.50 ERA after a month, you’re probably a bit spoiled by your team’s excellence!
|
| 12:31 |
Are the values in wOBA for 1b, 2b, 3b,… the same at every level? It just changes depending on the multiplier that adjusts for league, correct? |
| 12:31 |
: Is FG adjusting for minor league? I didn’t think so
|
| 12:31 |
Wil Myers going to be a dud in 2013 eh? |
| 12:31 |
: Why would you say that?
|
| 12:32 |
what is it about gio that’s got everybody so worried? is he injured? |
| 12:32 |
: I’m not really too worried – he’s been a little unlucky with the HRs
|
| 12:32 |
: Though one of the walks coming back is a little worrisome, but sheesh, he’s had 6 or 7 starts
|
| 12:32 |
Do you follow the amateur draft at all? I’m finding myself getting more into it each year, wondering if you know of any good places to get pre-draft coverage. Google is turning up a lot of Bleacher Report |
| 12:33 |
: Law, Sickels, BA, the BP and FG guys,e tc.
|
| 12:33 |
Jay Bruce: taking advice from Joey Votto? His LD% is over 30%. SSS or is there more there? |
| 12:34 |
: He’s been hitting a lot of grounders, too. Not quite sure what’s wrong with him
|
| 12:35 |
: Bruce seems to be doing the crazy BABIP year all wrong. Who has by far their best BABIP in by far their worst season?
|
| 12:35 |
Arenado or Lawrie for fantasy – this season and career? |
| 12:35 |
: Lawrie this season, Lawrie career real life, Arenado fantasy real life
|
| 12:35 |
guilty until proven innocent, eh? |
| 12:35 |
: Well, you’re guilty of dirty arm. More than that, I make no claim too
|
| 12:35 |
I don’t think the Rex Brothers should qualify in the top five for WPA. You can’t add up Brother 1 and Brother 2’s WPA to get a grand total. Not cool. |
| 12:36 |
Who has more WAR at the end of the season: Heyward or Stanton? |
| 12:36 |
: Stanton
|
| 12:36 |
Which traditional rate stat corellates most strongly with runs scored? Also, is a team’s k rate strongly inversely proportional to runs scored? |
| 12:36 |
: SLG actually does on the team level, but in part that’s because there’s more variance in team SLG
|
| 12:36 |
: a point of OBP is worth more than a point of SLG
|
| 12:37 |
: And once you look at coupled pairs with teams (Similar BA/OBP/SLG, differing strikeout rates) you see that strikeouts aren’t that big a deal
|
| 12:37 |
: *at the major league level*
|
| 12:38 |
: That’s important. Just because strikeouts aren’t a big deal at the MLB level doesn’t mean they aren’t at very low professional levels, college, high school, little league etc
|
| 12:38 |
: What’s the BABIP of an average litlte leaguer? .600?
|
| 12:38 |
Arenado likes MLB so far |
| 12:38 |
: So far so good
|
| 12:38 |
if i wanted to trade weaver in fantasy, what might a reasonable return be? would i have to limit my search to similarly broken players like adam dunn? |
| 12:38 |
: I think you can get more than that.
|
| 12:38 |
Do you have any reason to remain optimistic on Dickey? He seems to have more working against him (age, seemingly fluky success, greater effect of diminished velocity because he already throws slow) than your average slow starter. |
| 12:39 |
: Not worried about the age, though I’m less optimistic
|
| 12:39 |
: Knuckleballers are their own mystery.
|
| 12:39 |
: Though I still support the trade and the idea of bringing him in. Failure is made of should haves, after all (bonus points to those that get that reference)
|
| 12:39 |
If a player has RoS projection that says he will hit 15 more HRs then hits two today, would his Ros be 13 or 15 still since one day shouldn’t make much of a difference? |
| 12:40 |
: It would almost certainly still round to 15
|
| 12:40 |
stick a dick in forkey? |
| 12:40 |
: heh
|
| 12:40 |
when will they start comparing Shelby Miller to Matt Harvey. Seems everyone is downplaying Millers success |
| 12:40 |
: That’s because the Mets are kinda depressing outside of Harvey.
|
| 12:40 |
Dee Gordon has had a strong two games since returning, also his AAA numbers were great. Think he turned the corner, or is just lucky? |
| 12:41 |
: Little better. Not long enough to say more than that.
|
| 12:41 |
Should expect Dunn to return to Dunn-esque levels for ROS?.220/.350 with 30 homers rest of way? |
| 12:41 |
: Increasingly negative.
|
| 12:41 |
Man or machine? |
| 12:42 |
: Neither. I’m in favor of the ultimate melding of the two, Robert Cop.
|
| 12:42 |
Do you ever check how accurate your pre-season ZiPs were at the end of the year? |
| 12:42 |
: Yes. Though public evaluations, I leave to others because I have a conflict of interest.
|
| 12:42 |
does zips update to reflect in-season injury history? Does it know pujols is playing with an injury, for instance? |
| 12:42 |
: No.
|
| 12:43 |
Whom do you feel will have a better career: Appel or Jonathan Gray? |
| 12:43 |
: I’m going to get in trouble for this, but I think Appel’s safer.
|
| 12:43 |
What’s your take on Cuban stats? Clay Davenport’s translations for Henry Urrutia make him look pretty insane…. |
| 12:43 |
: I’m not a fan of Cuban stats – I try to avoid translating as much as I can
|
| 12:43 |
: For a case like Cespedes, of course, I had no choice
|
| 12:43 |
Start Tepesch vs the Cubs and Marlins? |
| 12:44 |
: I’m still not on the Tepesche Mode bandwagon, but he’s safer against those teams, especially the latter
|
| 12:44 |
If you are Jon Daniels, what do you do with Profar — package him in a deal for Stanton, package him in a deal for Price, or put him at 2B next year and have Ian Kinsler play 1B or LF? |
| 12:44 |
: I think at this point, you have to seriously explore a trade unless the value you can get is worth it.
|
| 12:44 |
: Real challenge trades, like Profar/Taveras, are quite rare
|
| 12:45 |
since 1968 the top 11 single season k% leader are all occupied by Pedro and Johnson and one year by Kerry Wood, do you think Darvsih can crack that list |
| 12:45 |
: Yes
|
| 12:45 |
wouldn’t it be cool if the CIL interface auto linked any players name mentioned in chat to the fangraphs profile? |
| 12:45 |
: Yeah, but I’m no programmer
|
| 12:45 |
Josh Rutledge has two more walks in his first 115PA as he did in almost 300 last year, is this Wiess? His overall approach seems a lot more restrained. |
| 12:46 |
: He *has* swung less, but I really couldn’t tell you why.
|
| 12:46 |
: (and this is one of the cases in which I just don’t know, not one of those cases in which I do know, but can’t talk about)
|
| 12:46 |
trout 2013 MVP? |
| 12:46 |
: Ain’t off the table
|
| 12:47 |
I broke down and shipped Kemp and Lincecum away for Cespedes and Zobrist. Good move? |
| 12:48 |
: Very reasonable, especially in a league in which Zorilla has lots of position qualification
|
| 12:48 |
Arenado’s upside (considering Coors of course): .300/.360/.520 with 30 homers? |
| 12:48 |
: Well, he could have a season with *better* numbers than that in his upside, but it’s not a bad guess for upside “true level”
|
| 12:48 |
Who wins: Allen Craig for Chris Sale? |
| 12:48 |
: Cards
|
| 12:49 |
How much longer does League pitch the ninth with a lead of 1, 2, or 3 runs? |
| 12:49 |
: Hard to tell. I wouldn’t have started him off, but Dodgers gotta be Dodgers.
|
| 12:49 |
Dale Sveum recently claimed the Cody Ransom / Luis Valbuena combo at 3B for the Cubs was the most productive in baseball. Thoughts on either’s long-term value, esp. Valbuena? |
| 12:50 |
: Valbuena useful stopgap role guy. Cody Ransom fringy. Sveum was just being nice.
|
| 12:51 |
: On the other hand, if you saw Ian Stewart last year, you’d think Valbuena and Ransom were genetically cloned from Mike Schmidt
|
| 12:51 |
I just dropped Trevor Plouffe for Mike Moustakas. Good move? |
| 12:51 |
: I rather have Moustakas
|
| 12:51 |
How many PA’s do you need before you conclude the hitter is what he is. Brandon Belt nearing 800… |
| 12:51 |
: Can’t really make a simple answer to that.
|
| 12:52 |
What has the Dodgers done to the Baseball Gods to invoke their wrath? Now I know how Jays fans felt last year with half their team on the DL……. |
| 12:52 |
: Signing 17 starters is hubris. The Gods punish hubris. Well, mostly, I think Brown Sugar Cinnamon Pop Tart Man rewards a balanced breakfast.
|
| 12:52 |
What can we expect from McCann? Will he be able to match Gattis’ performance so far (not saying that Gattis will be able to keep it up)? |
| 12:53 |
: I’m still cautiously optimistic about McCann, but injuries be tricky
|
| 12:53 |
Which LA team is in more trouble? |
| 12:53 |
: Dodgers, I think. OK, Dodgers are closer to playoffs, but Angels are a better team, I feel
|
| 12:54 |
Is this the real Phil Hughes? In a walk year, he looks FANTASTIC! |
| 12:54 |
: Don’t know if he’s *this* good. He hasn’t had his 6 week stretch of an ERA of 8 that he likes to have
|
| 12:54 |
I guess you want variety, but do you care if I only ask questions about my team? |
| 12:54 |
: I don’t even look at the names until I go.
|
| 12:54 |
: err until I answer them.
|
| 12:54 |
: I get a lot of questions and can’t come close to answering them all.
|
| 12:54 |
: I try too, but then I fall half an hour behind.
|
| 12:54 |
: I try to
|
| 12:55 |
: Still beats those ESPN chats, but there I don’t even try to answer them all.
|
| 12:55 |
: One of the chats I did last year with Bowden and Schoenfield, we had 19,000 submitted questions.
|
| 12:55 |
Edinson walks AND K’s way down… no real change in Pitch/FX. Reasons? |
| 12:56 |
: The crap he’s throwing has been easy to hit
|
| 12:56 |
: Lemme pull him up, I bet a shasta his contact numbers are way up
|
| 12:57 |
: Yup, 82%. His saving grace used to be he was harder to hit than average
|
| 12:57 |
300 Ks in a season, presuming Darvish gets 33 starts, is 9.1 Ks per start. If he gets 32 starts it’s 9.38 Ks per start. He is currently on pace for 300 at either 32 or 33 starts at 10.38 Ks/per start, but he’d need to be well above 8 Ks per start for the rest of the season to reach 300 Ks. |
| 12:57 |
Ryan Madson is a unicorn until proven otherwise… |
| 12:57 |
RE Machado – Trout and Harper spoiled us to what a real burgeoning 20 year old superstar season should look like |
| 12:57 |
I apologize for that choice. I am just preparing for the inevitable having to cut someone when Weaver returns. Although I guess Ogando could go instead.. |
| 12:58 |
clarifying question, are we allowed to ask fantasy advice? |
| 12:58 |
: Yes.
|
| 12:58 |
: But I try to answer a wide variety of questions. I’m known as a generalist.
|
| 12:59 |
: And I don’t go nuts with the fantasy questions, simply because they’re usually very personal questions and they can bog down the chat very easily
|
| 12:59 |
: “Can Mark Thurmond make a comeback and help the Orioles” is a more interesting question for the readers than “Can Mark Thurmond make a comeback and help my fantasy team”
|
| 1:00 |
: And, of course, there *are* dedicated fantasy *specialists* who do answer these questions, so it’s kind of a waste to ask me.
|
| 1:00 |
Does Carlos Gomez breakout this year? .280 25hr 35sb? Feel he should get moved up from the 6/7 spot in lineup. |
| 1:01 |
: He’s not going to stay at .360, but he’s definitely making a strong case for the power increase being real.
|
| 1:01 |
: Who would’ve thought? Years after that trade, Carlos Gomez *is* a better player than Johan Santana.
|
| 1:01 |
The saying is one man’s trash is another man’s treasure. Do you think Dodgers and Blue Jays agree with this? Or is trash just trash? |
| 1:01 |
: A=A. 8th grade math should tell you that
|
| 1:01 |
Is it such a bad thing that Machado is playing third? It’s rated as the 2nd most important defensive position, and it’s not like Hardy isn’t a great defensive SS. If they had some better bat to put at third it might be a waste of resources, but they dont |
| 1:02 |
: Nobody force the O’s to do jack-shit over the offseason.
|
| 1:02 |
do you think manny machado or brett lawrie end up having better careers? |
| 1:02 |
: Machado I think. But I’m a Lawrie fan.
|
| 1:02 |
Best pick in the ’93 Expansion draft, other than myself. |
| 1:03 |
: Well, Trevor Hoffman worked out nicely, even if a different team got the benefits in the end
|
| 1:04 |
: But just to be different, I’ll say it was Glad Rapp
|
| 1:04 |
How many people are in chat? |
| 1:04 |
: Here, between 400-800 at a time.
|
| 1:04 |
hi dan, do you think that mike morse will exceed his 2013 projection? |
| 1:05 |
: Well, he’s strongly favored to now.
|
| 1:05 |
If healthy, C. Santana has an MVP chance, no? |
| 1:05 |
: He deserves one, though the media never seems to be all that interested in him
|
| 1:06 |
What kind of racquet is Carson Cistulli holding in his Wikipedia picture? |
| 1:06 |
: squash?
|
| 1:06 |
Blue Jays. Help. |
| 1:06 |
: Help computer. Stop all the downloading.
|
| 1:06 |
Concerned about Dylan Bundy? Can’t help but think he’s about 4 or 5 weeks from TJ surgery |
| 1:06 |
: DONT SAY THAT
|
| 1:06 |
: BRING BACK THE HUMAN UMPS
|
| 1:06 |
How horrific a fielder would a player need to be before positional adjustment to DH wouldn’t hurt their value? |
| 1:07 |
: Pretty bad, but I think people underestimate DH – players actually hit worse as a DH than they do in the field
|
| 1:08 |
what do you think of joey gallo’s rediculous batting stats this season? |
| 1:08 |
: Matt Raleigh: The Next Generation
|
| 1:08 |
: Lowest ranking TV show ever.
|
| 1:08 |
Gonna coin Marcell “Yok” Ozuna’s nickname now. Can we expect a viciedo 2012 type of year for him? Hacker but with power. |
| 1:09 |
: Not the worst comp I’ve ever heard
|
| 1:09 |
The BABIP might be a bit high, but Jason Bay’s been decent for Seattle at the plate. Think there’s a chance of an actual modest bounceback to a ~2 WAR player? |
| 1:09 |
: He could, but again, very limited time
|
| 1:09 |
When someone says, “player x’s five-most statistically similar comps are..” do you just roll your eyes? |
| 1:09 |
: Depends on the context.
|
| 1:09 |
if Tamps Fails to dig themselves out of the hole is there a chance Myers sees less than 100 PAs this year? |
| 1:09 |
: No, I think he’ll be up.
|
| 1:10 |
Any concerns over Darvish’s drastic increase of slider usage? 2012: 14.3% 2013: 31.5% |
| 1:10 |
: Not overworried
|
| 1:10 |
: At least more than usual. You should worry about all pitchers all the time.
|
| 1:10 |
: You know what injures pitchers? Pitching. You know how to reduce pitcher injuries? Make them into outfielders
|
| 1:10 |
Talk some sense into Braves fans. McCann should be the starter, while working Gattis in as backup, PH, spot start at 1B, right? |
| 1:10 |
: Gattis would be a pretty sweet super sub
|
| 1:10 |
Well, Mark Reynolds is blind. It’s not his fault. |
| 1:10 |
Which 28-year-old pseudo-backup is more likely to have a good year… Carlos Corporan or Jose Lobaton? |
| 1:11 |
: Both are actually kinda interesting as they got the hang of the minors in recent years
|
| 1:12 |
: Wasn’t Corporan a magic spell in Ultima Online?
|
| 1:13 |
: Corporan was part of the Brewers system when they were collecting players that sounded like Harry Potter characters.
|
| 1:13 |
: Carlos Corporan! Callix Crabbe! Kennard Bibbs!
|
| 1:13 |
Will Jarrod Parker get things together? |
| 1:13 |
: y
|
| 1:13 |
Chris Carter good for 30 HR this year? |
| 1:13 |
: He’ll threaten it at least
|
| 1:13 |
Question about your comment about the O’s possible having Macahdo at the wrong position. If he is an elite defensive option at 3rd now, as Hardy is an elite option at SS, what do they have to lose? Who knows how Hardy would perform at 2B or 3rd if he switched? They are just keeping their options open so they can be flexible with their Hardy plan when he is a FA. |
| 1:14 |
: If they were just being flexible, Showalter wouldn’t have announced that Machado wouldn’t even backup Hardy at short.
|
| 1:14 |
: And going “who knows” when moving an elite SS to 2B is just kind of lazy.
|
| 1:15 |
: “Yeah, Giancarlo Stanton’s a good hitter in the NL, but who knows what he would do in the AL?”
|
| 1:15 |
Carlos Gomez good for 25hr, 40steals? |
| 1:16 |
: I don’t think he hits 40 steals
|
| 1:16 |
: And 25 HR still aggressive
|
| 1:16 |
: but 25/40 is a lot less ridiculous than it would have sounded a couple years ago
|
| 1:16 |
Gyorko heating up? Where do you see him ROS? |
| 1:16 |
: I told you guys Gyorko would be fine.
|
| 1:16 |
: Remember.
|
| 1:16 |
: April.
|
| 1:16 |
: My gut though his projections were pretty adequate.
|
| 1:16 |
Scott Kazmir looked a lot better in his past start… fastball had more velo and he seems to be over his control problems. Do you like him this year more than the pitcher formerly known as Fausto? |
| 1:17 |
: I like Kaz’s upside better than Fauxsto’s
|
| 1:17 |
Iron Man3, hase has already grossed 680million – Robert Downey Jr made 50 million and he’s probably underpaid…. |
| 1:17 |
Will we ever see rookie season Eric Hosmer again? |
| 1:19 |
: Depends on your stance on eternalism
|
| 1:19 |
: There’s also some special relativity issues.
|
| 1:20 |
Should Indians fans resign themselves to that which is evident: The Tigers are too good and the rest of the AL Central beats each other up too much to earn a WC? |
| 1:20 |
: The Tigers aren’t *too* good – no team is invincible
|
| 1:20 |
Is Darvish going to overtake Verlander as the best pitcher in baseball by the end of this year? |
| 1:20 |
: One game, Darvish is the AL pitcher I’d least like to face in 2013
|
| 1:20 |
Charles Barkley says there are no sophomore slumps, its just that everyone know who the hell you are now. |
| 1:21 |
: OK, getting near 120 so I’m declaring lightning round
|
| 1:21 |
: Which means I’m going to race through the questions that I can answer quickly, plus any off-topic ones.
|
| 1:21 |
: And if you complain, you agree to allow me the option to electrocute you.
|
| 1:21 |
What is meant when someone says that a rate has stabilized? |
| 1:22 |
: Reached a sample size at which the new performance has as much predictive value as league-average
|
| 1:22 |
Can Mark Thurmond make a comeback and help the Orioles? |
| 1:22 |
: No. Astros, maybe.
|
| 1:22 |
better end of season numbers : Ike Davis or Adam Laroche |
| 1:22 |
: I sorta like Ike.
|
| 1:22 |
Dan gives decent fantasy advice if you phrase your questions something like ‘what do you think of player X’s fast/slow start” or “do you think Player Y can keep up the K rate given his swSTR% gains” |
| 1:22 |
Is Pujols done being a top tier 1b? |
| 1:22 |
: Yes
|
| 1:22 |
ROS: Cobb or Slowey? |
| 1:22 |
: Cobb
|
| 1:22 |
Any chance Matt Adams winds up with a full-time job, even next year? And how would it happen? |
| 1:22 |
: Hope so. Decent.
|
| 1:22 |
Thoughts on the Braves impending roster problems with McCann, and then Heyward returning shortly after? Pretty much confirmed they’ll carry 3 catchers, would you look to trade Reed Johnson or release Schafer (out of options) when Heyward comes back? |
| 1:23 |
: They can axe either without any second thoughts
|
| 1:23 |
Hey Nigel, f*** you! |
| 1:23 |
Could we improve Josh Hamilton simply by tossing a coin three times before every pitch and telling him to take no matter what if we got three heads? |
| 1:23 |
: No because he’d swing at hte coin
|
| 1:23 |
What do you think the next contract for Miggy looks like? |
| 1:23 |
: Commas. Zeroes.
|
| 1:23 |
Better career — Machado or Profar? |
| 1:24 |
: Machado
|
| 1:24 |
Despite it providing piece of doodoo content, is Bleacher Report a decent place to try to start a sports writing career? |
| 1:24 |
: Like most places, they have good writers and bad writers.
|
| 1:24 |
: They slideshows *do* annoy me, but that’s a taste thing
|
| 1:24 |
: It’s not a bad place to stick in your toe.
|
| 1:24 |
: But in fairness, I came up “through the ranks” at a much easier time
|
| 1:24 |
: Pretty much everybody who posted to rec.sport.baseball in 1996 who wanted a job in baseball/media has one.
|
| 1:25 |
Should the O’s never draft another pitcher EVER AGAIN? |
| 1:25 |
: No
|
| 1:25 |
PORKCHOP SANDWICHES! |
| 1:25 |
can the Os make the playoffs with this pitching? |
| 1:25 |
: Possible
|
| 1:25 |
Dropped W. Myers in non-keeper. Not a huge deal? |
| 1:25 |
: Non-keeper, not as big a deal
|
| 1:25 |
What have the Indians done with the real Ryan Raburn? |
| 1:26 |
: Ryan Raburn doesn’t have average seasons, just comically bad and ridiculously good oens
|
| 1:26 |
Does Curtis Granderson hit for a better average than the .232 he put up last year? |
| 1:26 |
: Possibly – his BA will stay low
|
| 1:26 |
Which MLB player most closely resembles TF2’s Scout? |
| 1:26 |
: Justin sellers
|
| 1:26 |
: Though no Boston accent
|
| 1:26 |
Raleigh was 23 when he was destroying low-A. Gallo is 19. |
| 1:26 |
: I’m talking more skillset
|
| 1:27 |
What would be your reaction if Iron Man 4 starred Cal Ripken? |
| 1:27 |
: Kevin Costner’s going to throw a chair!
|
| 1:27 |
How about one game for NL pitcher? Stras? Waino? |
| 1:27 |
: This minute, I’d take Wainwright, but overall, probably kershaw still.
|
| 1:27 |
Has there been anything done on how pitchers perform in innings after their team spends a long time at the plate? Does sitting for an unusually long period of time actually impact performance? |
| 1:27 |
: Not that I’m aware of.
|
| 1:27 |
How long does the Vernon Wells show last, now that he’s slowing down? |
| 1:28 |
: One could argue that he used up so much suck the last few years that he *has* to be plumb out.
|
| 1:28 |
Ever play Dark Souls? |
| 1:28 |
: No, actually
|
| 1:28 |
: My sister’s boyfriend loves it
|
| 1:28 |
Cards and Reds well above the rest of the NL Central? |
| 1:28 |
: Depends well above.
|
| 1:28 |
Have you even done a chat, or part of a chat, while pooping? |
| 1:29 |
: I like to leave the thought of horror in the back of reader’s minds rather than confirm or deny
|
| 1:29 |
is kendrick the ace of Philly’s staff? (the answer is yes) |
| 1:29 |
: Ouch
|
| 1:29 |
tell me how awesome jose fernandez is. please. is he mumford, arcade fire, or like, the lumineers. |
| 1:29 |
: Arcade Fire
|
| 1:29 |
Lightning bolts or fireballs? |
| 1:31 |
: E. Honda belly flop ftw
|
| 1:31 |
Real nerds know fireballs do more damage |
| 1:31 |
Woah. You gave more pause to Machado having a better career than Lawrie than you did him having a better career than Profar |
| 1:31 |
: Don’t read too much, I gave a quick answer!
|
| 1:31 |
I just woke up, and I dreamt I was being paid to get drunk and record my thoughts. Is that easier or harder than being a baseball writer? |
| 1:31 |
: Equal to.
|
| 1:31 |
You buying Pineda with reports of 95mph? |
| 1:31 |
: Did he specify MPH? Could have been kph.
|
| 1:31 |
If Jose Fernandez is Arcade Fire, his rookie season is going to be amazing. Funeral is better than anything mumford or lumineers has ever or will ever make |
| 1:32 |
Do you think the Arcade fire are bigger and better than Mumford? So essentially the best AND biggest band going? |
| 1:32 |
: I still like Decemberists/New Pornographers better though.
|
| 1:32 |
Have you played the new Starcraft game yet? |
| 1:32 |
Mumford is so overrated it hurts. |
| 1:32 |
: Not really into Starcraft
|
| 1:32 |
At Bonnaroo 2011 I saw The Decemberists, My Morning Jacket, and Arcade Fire back to back to back in one spot, one stage. Best night ever. |
| 1:33 |
: That was a pretty badass night.
|
| 1:33 |
: On that note, it’s time for me to log off for the week.
|
| 1:33 |
: Thanks for coming all, hope to see you next week, I hope!
|
| 1:34 |
: As usual, you can find me at ESPN, chats and projections on FG, DSzymborski on Twitter (and Steam!) and various bars in Southwest Ohio.
|
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Do you like Biddle as a long term keeper? if so when do you really think he will contribute? Thanks for your time