Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/12/25

Dan Szymborski: Of all the writers how cover baseball, Dan is one of them!

RockiesFanGirl: Dan, you have a better sense of this than most, but this is a serious question: What can be done to fix the Colorado Rockies?

Dan Szymborski: I really think you either need new ownership or a change in approach from the current one to give the front office the resources they need to modernize the front office completely.

Dan Szymborski: There *are* people in the organization who are trying to modernize the organization, but they also need support and leeway.

Old MLB: With your 47th birthday coming up, who do you think among current major leaguers has the best chance to still be in the MLB at age 47? I guess Rich Hill has an outside shot but he largely looks cooked, and I don’t think Verlander or Carlos Santana are likely to last that long, so is it actually someone young with projectable long term skills like Soto? The plate discipline and power should still be in full swing a decade from now, but two decades is a crazy amount of time to project

Dan Szymborski: I think a reliever is most likely, maybe someone like Kirby Yates who doesn’t blow away batters anyway

Dan Szymborski: Wade Miley could be Jamie Moyer (though nto a reliever)

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he wants to, but it *could* be Clayton Kershaw, becasue if he was interested in it, he could probably just part-time it with the Dodgers, signing every July, and they’d probably go along with it

J: You can’t put “The final chat for Dan” as the start of the chat byline

Dan Szymborski: ANY chat can be the final chat!

Dan Szymborski: Even when young. And the actuarial table only gets worse.

Dan Szymborski: I should tell Meg and David that if I do happen to die, I’d like them to put up one last SzymChat that’s exclusively to make jokes about my demise

Dan Szymborski: I want to go out in a flurry of obnoxiousness

Guest: Goldschmidt last year 88 wRC+ vs RHP and this year 84. should he and Rice just be in a pure platoon?

Dan Szymborski: Goldschmidt PROBABLY should, but it’s difficult to just tell the veteran you signed a few months ago who may be a HoFer (he’s 15th in JaffeJAWS) that they’re going to be the small half of a platoon. And the Yankees are only starting Rice like half the time against lefties anyway and I hate to doom a young player to never get a chance to improve against same-handers

DFOX9139: What kind of return do you expect to Braves to get for Sale?

Dan Szymborski: If they did trade it, they ought to get quite a good return. The club option is highly enticing. I’m not sure the Braves are actually “there” yet though

Buyers or Cellars: True/False: o’s victory over the league-leading Tigers yesterday proves they should be buyers at the deadline

Dan Szymborski: False. No game can prove anything about a season (or at least only extremely rarely) so it’s usually false

Dan Szymborski: I mean, a whole team can catch Ebola during a game for example, which really would have a huge effect o nthe season

Cromulent: Current worst contract per Zips? Top 3?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t tallied it, but Bogaerts is likely up there. Regrettably Trout because of his health. And with Vladito not maintaining his 2025 levels, he’s probably up there just because the numbers are so big and the contract so much to go

Of the Grom: Has zips changed its outlook on the number of innings for deGrom, either this year or even next?

Dan Szymborski: Yup, it’s moved up considerably!

12 to 6: the pirates are not trading skenes.

can’t see it unless he and his reps basically pull an nfl/nba style “get me the hell out of here or i’m going to dog it and make life miserable for you” move, and i don’t see that happening.

but IF THEY DID, would Rushing, Ferris, De Paula, Zazueta, and Swan get them there?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure that’s even enough.

Wind Park Factors: Do park factors adequately account for wind in places like Wrigley or Citi where it frequently makes the difference on batted ball outcomes? Given how much the winds can change throughout the year I’d imagine just taking a running 3-year average would mask the trends when going month by month might give a more accurate picture of what is really happening. Wouldn’t both the Cubs and the Mets be interested in, say, a fly-ball lefty reliever and be interested in how their home parks will play up or down HR/FB% over the homestretch?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not, but due to sample size, youi’re not really going to get to.

Dan Szymborski: The noise in park factors is massive, so that these micro-samples are going to have so much noise that you’ll struggle to find the signal

Mets big splash: Am I crazy for thinking at least one of the Mets’ current starting pitchers gets traded by the trade deadline? There’s such a glut with reinforcements on the way that a contender-contender swap of positions of need feels like it makes a ton of sense; maybe even someone like Megill is included in a larger package for a long term piece

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, I can’t see them trading a pitcher

Judge: It just keeps going

Sporter’s Five Horses: Per Bowden, the Nats are looking to pair another ace via trade or offseason acq with Gore at the top of the rotation. I suppose this bodes well for an attempt at a serious run at in the next 2+ years, but if they flip their last remaining good prospects for another ace then I have a hard time seeing their rebuild yield more than a high 70s / low 80s win team. Fair assessment?

Dan Szymborski: I mean, they do have most of the offensive core on the team now that they can build around

Dan Szymborski: The opportunity to add HIGH quality pitching is really hard to ignore though

Dan Szymborski: I think my feelings are going to be very specific-trade

Ben: How hot is Jerry Dipoto’s seat?

Dan Szymborski: Mildly?

Doug: What’s your take on Roberts leaving Suaer in to die and then bringing in a position player in the 6th? Seems like a joke and position player pitching rules need another update.

Dan Szymborski: Sauer definitely took one for the team!

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure how you would make non-preposterous rules that force you to remove a pitcher

Dan Szymborski: Kiké has a 2.08 ERA lol

Dan Szymborski: I don’t mind position players pitching

Dan Szymborski: I think if anything, the best solution would be a long-term cultural change towards teams resigning a game

Dan Szymborski: rather than forfeit, which has a huge negative connotation

Dan Szymborski: Like in chess, they don’t finish off the lost positions

Dan Szymborski: But that comes with a real cost in baseball, in concessions, pissing off fans, etc.

Dan Szymborski: In other words, I’m not sure the benefit of upsetting the status quo is worth the costs of doing so

Altamira: Does any Baltimore impending free agent net a 2026 contributor in trade?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll trade O’Hearn

Guest: The Orioles have looked more alive lately, but it’s basically because of their pitching putting up a 2.97 ERA over the last 17 games, while the position players have been average.  I’m thinking this is actually more concerning than their early pitching struggles, because if their hitters are more average than all-star then things don’t look good for future years.  What do you think?

Dan Szymborski: It’s certainly a concern that the offense was only OK. Honestly, I think the math is just too poor for the Orioles

Dan Szymborski: They have to go absolutely INSANE, and even if the offense bounces back, I dont’ think the pitching can do that

peter: Does Homer Bailey get things back on track this year and take a leap forward?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, did something very weird happens? Did the White Sox sign him for a comeback or something?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t see anything, so confusion is reigning

DJ Tofu: Compare three fastball pitches, one thrown at 95 mph and the other two at 92 mph and 98 mph. Everything else are identical, with league average everything (H/VAA, arm angle, etc.).
– What are the differences between the time it would take to arrive at the plate? (not sure how to account for spin and aerodynamics)
– For an average hitter, if he swings the bat so that the ball would leave the bat straight away at 100mph EV and 20 degree launch angle for the 95 mph one, where would the bat meet the other two pitches, and what would be the results (EV, LA, and horizontal exit angle)?

Dan Szymborski: I would suggest submitting this for a mailbag!

Dan Szymborski: Because there’s no way I can answer this in 45 seconds

Dan Szymborski: You need someone a great deal more intelligent than me

Roberto Beers: A man, a Dan, a chat, are the giants going to win ninety games, emagyteninniwotgniogstnaigehteratahcanadanama

drplantwrench: angels are tied for 2nd place in the AL West,1 game under .500, 2.5 games out of WC3, missing two big bullpen pieces and two 3Bs.  this year’s a success *so far* right?  do they have any chance to sneak into the playoffs with the AL West being a mess?

Dan Szymborski: I guess there’s a chance, but this is a phenomenally underwhelming team

Houzer: Should the Tigers offer Skubal a record setting extension now .. and if he rejects it, trade him in the offseason? And would the Orioles consider Skubal for Adley? Or would the Dodgers do Rushing for him?

Dan Szymborski: They should probably do the first thing. The second is…complicated and I think it depends what the roster looks like.

Dan Szymborski: I would absolutely jump on a Skubal/Adley trade if I’m the Orioles

Dan Szymborski: Right now, one has to consider 2.5 years of Adley is probably nto as valuable as 1.5 years of Skubal

Dan Szymborski: Now, the problem is I’m not sure why the Tigers would do this.

Dan Szymborski: They gotten more WAR from their catchers this year than the Orioles. And they did LAST YEAR too

Houzer: What does a package of Efflin and Bautista cost the Tigers in a trade?

Dan Szymborski: A back end top 100 and a few dudes

Nathan: Are you training for your booms/busts victory lap?

Dan Szymborski: No, because this exercise will undoubtedly have many failures as well, by its very nature

Dan Szymborski: And I really do try to avoid hubris

Dan Szymborski: Like, I want people to know my work has value, but I always try to blend in the failures with the successes

Oaktown Blues: I think I might’ve found a small ZiPS glitch. In ZiPS Update, 34 year old backup catcher Austin Wynns is projected for a 123 wRC+. He’s had some tiny sample success in 2024 and 2025, but not enough to explain the projection, I think. Am I wrong?

Dan Szymborski: That seems weird.

Dan Szymborski: oh, right, the UPDATE

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS only projects him as a 93 wRC+ guy going forward

Dan Szymborski: but with ZiPS at only 107 more PA and the DC at a mere 69, you can blend almost anything with 189 in 48 PA and get a big number

Buzz Aldrin Bavasi: How worried is Zips about Roki going forward?

Dan Szymborski: moderately

Big Fan: Happy early birthday!  47 is my favorite prime number – it’s gonna be amazing.

Dan Szymborski: I can’t imagine 47 is going to be amazing

Oaktown Blues: Also can you remind me what ZiPS Update represents? Is it a re-projection of 2025, but with the information ZiPS has learned during 2025 incorporated? Is it full-gat ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS update is the rest of season projection (which is update) plus whatever’s in the bucket already

Dan Szymborski: FanGraphs can’t automatically do the full-fat, best version of ZiPS of practical reasons

Dan Szymborski: Even with a new PC build, the quickest I can project a full season is about 18 hours of computing time over two PCs

Dan Szymborski: There’s a lot of linear algebra!

Matt: Hey Dan was does Zips say Judge’s 90th percentile outcome looks like this season based on his start?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really have percentiles set up that way IN season

Brent: When you run your initial full projections before the season starts, what kind of processing power does that take? Are you running it locally or do you get access to an NSA super computer?

Dan Szymborski: Running it locally. I batch run the hitters and the pitchers separately on two PCs.

Dan Szymborski: The slower one, my media server which uses an i7-8700K is now out of that mix though, and now the 5900X is the slower of the PC and can do the pitchers in about 18 hours. My 9950x3D can do the hitters in about 11 hours.

James: Is Seattle cooked already?

Dan Szymborski: Cooked, no, but the onions are softening up

Justin: What all do you think goes into the consistent advantage that you have by playing home games?   Do you think we’ll ever see things like sending probable pitchers to the next city a few days early to get them “Settled in”?

Dan Szymborski: Comfort and familiarity is important. The small last bat advantage. The very slight favoritism from umpires

Dan Szymborski: it doesn’t add up to a huge amount, but it’s SOMETHING

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think settling in would have the value in that way

Guest: who says they can’t be preposterous? ; p

Dan Szymborski: True

Dan Szymborski: The zombie runners are pretty preposterous

Houzer: its time for ABS full time. Leave the umps out there to make base-running calls, but get ABS to calls ball and strikes. One big reason is so we can end all this pitch framing pageantry

Dan Szymborski: I’m all for this

Dan Szymborski: Now, one can argue it’s not good to remove a skillset, but since it’s a skillset in basically selling something to a fallible rule enforcer, I don’t think it needs to be a thing

Guest: Will Chris Sale and/or Jacob DeGrom be the big names at the deadline?

Dan Szymborski: CHris Sale is likely. I don’t think deGrom is

Justin: Does anybody come to mind when i say “who are some relatively unknown relievers who strike you as guys who will be “promoted” from middle relief into setup roles down the stretch due to seeming like suddenly-outstanding pitchers”?

Dan Szymborski: Gabe Speier? Though one could say he’s already getting higher leverage innings

Dan Szymborski: Bennett Sousa?

Justin: Do you think the Orioles will sell enough pieces that Basallo will get a cup of coffee this year?  In some ways, his AAA performance is almost more impressive than Anthony’s, and he’s younger.

Dan Szymborski: I think ti’s very POSSIBLE

Jim Basketballhoop: Is the forfeit/concession solution just a mercy rule?

Dan Szymborski: Quitting is all on how you sell it

Jeremy: Rather than giving teams the opportunity to resigning a game, a la chess, should MLB have a mercy rule, a la Little League?

Dan Szymborski: Like nobody berates football teams that take knees when the opponent can no longer meaningfully stop the clock

Guy Young: This is a bit hair-brained, but theoretically:

Guy Young: This is a bit hair-brained, but theoretically: Kyle Tucker and Colin Rea for Dylan Cease and Michael King. Who says no?

Dan Szymborski: Both?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s one of those things where the gain from their package is arguably not worth the risk

Dan Szymborski: Because once both teams execute the trade, then REPEATING the trade the other way around also looks like a really good trade at that point

Justin: Is there any trait that you’ve found that tends to allow players to consistently outplay their projections and/or “peripheral stats”?  i suppose that if you did find such a thing, most systems would simply start to bake that thing in to the model, right?  I may remember reading something about pitchers out-pitching their peripherals once their GB rate gets around 60% but i could be wrong.

Dan Szymborski: A statistical one? Not really; I spend a lot of time trying to find non-randomized errors in the projections.

Dan Szymborski: Guys who are injured is probably one of them, but I think that’s always going to be a problem predicting those guys no matter what you do

Guest: not sure why [team] would do this? well, keep in mind team I’m imagining the team I’m fan of making this deal with is very, very dumb

Dan Szymborski: One disappointing thing is that dumb teams have gotten so smart relative to dumb teams 25 years ago

Dan Szymborski: I would call the White Sox in 2025 and average front office in 1995

oklahoma brave: the braves won’t trade Sale because they won’t punt next year imo

Dan Szymborski: That’s a very real possibility

Dan Szymborski: BUT\

Dan Szymborski: Double A is *not* usually queasy about an unpopular trade he sees a benefit from

Alex: Who will the Phillies trade for to improve their outfield? I know they need bullpen/reliever help but they also need run support. CF & LF are black holes 80% of the time

Dan Szymborski: Nobody

Guest: Has ZIPS’ opinion of Matt Shaw improved post 2nd call up?

Dan Szymborski: Not really since ZiPS alreayd liked him

George: If Abrams is destined to be moved off the dirt, should the Nats be looking to move one or multiple of the Lile, Hassell, Call, and Young group at the deadline?

Dan Szymborski: As always, it depends on the exact offers and what the penannt race looks like at the moment

tomorrow: Postseason starts tomorrow, who is the favorite to win the WS?

Dan Szymborski: Tigers

David: How does ZiPS updated projection deal with pitchers recovering from injuries? Does it matter? Glasnow, Darvish, King etc, are all recovering from unclear diagnosis, are they expected to come back from pre-injury form or is there more variance?

Dan Szymborski: Poorly

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS can broadly understand injuries in a general sense

Dan Szymborski: but the exact specifics are really hard for a model to comprehend

Pkpkpkpk: Can we get some book recs? Any kind of book. I feel like I read in one of these that you read 100 books a year or some massive number like that.

Dan Szymborski: Here’s one I rarely see mentioned: Herman Wouk’s The Lawgiver

Dan Szymborski: Joanna Kevada’s Zed

Dan Szymborski: I’m still not sure I actually like Cursed Bunny translation (Chung Bora), but it was really out there and ifferent

Mayo: Seems like Mayo is getting buried with limited PT while stinking up the joint.  What kind of plan is that for him to succeed?

Dan Szymborski: Not a good one

Dan Szymborski: I think the O’s are currently caught between two very separate impulses

Greg: For what n is the gap between the Rockies and the 29th most analytically advanced team equal to the gap between the 1st most analytically advanced team and the nth most analytically advanced team?

Dan Szymborski: For one, the Rockies are not the least analytically advanced team

Dan Szymborski: They do have a team, though without the resources of the more all-in teams

Jeff in Jersey: I love that you picked the Tigers over the Dodgers as WS favorites.

Dan Szymborski: Big Pitcher Energy takes an outsized bite in the playoffs and the Dodgers just aren’t that good here

Guest: Soroka’s arm slot is lower than it has been in years past. Can he have new found success, or is he just a middling pitcher moving forward?

Dan Szymborski: I’m certainly more optimistic than I was before

Dan Szymborski: but I still think the typical good outcome is worthy inning eater

Szymbo Slice: Speaking of the Orioles, why pay Kittridge all that money when they won’t even give him the 8th? Baker looks better!

Dan Szymborski: He did get a rather late start to the season

Dan Szymborski: And they have to pay him the money no matter what!

Robot Umps: Do you have any concerns that robot umpires for balls and strikes will be working in a two-dimensional strike zone?  I hate the idea, but I hate the artificial pitch clock too – why are we hurrying up exactly?

Dan Szymborski: Some, but I’m not sure human umps are terribly good at multiple dimensions either

Bob Loblaw: Who is, in your opinion, the least analytically advanced team?

Dan Szymborski: White Sox

Guest: “one can argue it’s not good to remove a skillset” I see pitch framing as the same kind of skill set that encourages soccer plays to go down like they were shot and flop around a bit when no one was near them in order to draw a penalty.

Dan Szymborski: I want to give Nobel prizes for chemistry, not Nobel prize for deceptive misleading chemistry

Dan Szymborski: My main problem with robot balls/strikes is that a whole appeal process is just dumb time-wasting red tape

Dan Szymborski: The goal should be the ump to hear “ball” or “strike” in an earpiece and then evaluate check swings, etc

Guest: Last year Michael Harris started really slow and then exploded in last few months, do you see the same possibly happening this year or is the guy he’s been this year more likely his norm with way too many ground balls?

Dan Szymborski: I’m nto so sure, but I hope so given how bad that projection is if he doesn’t!

K Gilgeous-Alexander: What’s the difference between statcast and pitch info plate discipline metrics? Has one been shown to be more accurate than the other?

Dan Szymborski: I think the problem is you’d be judging accuracy of the calls against one or the other

Dan Szymborski: On that note, I have a lot to take care of this afternoon, so I bid you all adieu for two weeks!

Dan Szymborski: (I’m away next week)