Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/21/17

Dan Szymborski: Finally able to get into Jotcast!

Dan Szymborski: It wasn’t taking my password on this PC and it took me awhile to recover it!  lol

Dan Szymborski: Is anyone still here?

Jeff: Hi Dan, big fan here. Are the Mets doomed?

Dan Szymborski: Mildly.   They seem uninterested in flippin the script.

jon: Is Max Scherzer going to No-Hit the Marlins today?

Dan Szymborski: No

Blah: I asked the same question to Dave: The baseballs are juiced/changed right?

Dan Szymborski: It would be an easily explanation for the last year and a half.  But we still don’t have sufficient evidence enough of a real change here in construction.

Dan Szymborski: So logically it makes sense, but I only know what I can prove.

hjrrockies: the Rockies are projected to go .500 the rest of the way. Ought I, as a ‘rational’ Rockies fan, have expectations higher than that anyway? With Gray and Anderson coming back, things would seem to be better than .500, right? Maybe?

Dan Szymborski: I actually have them slightly higher, a .515 team, IIRC.

Dan Szymborski: Some of the pitching performance they’ve got would likely slow ’em down a bit of course

Dan Szymborski: Errr

Dan Szymborski: Some of the guys that are probably above their heads.

Tom: Is there anything left with King Felix worth stashing for fantasy?

Dan Szymborski: Always worth a flyer if it’s not costing you much.

Moltar: My Cat, Cat Harvey, is not impressed with how the Mets handled the injury to his namesake, Matt Harvey. Should he have started the season on the DL and given more time to get in a groove before being called up to the majors?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t even know what to do about Harvey anymore.

Blah: Follow up to juiced baseballs: are fly ball pitchers now on their way out?

Dan Szymborski: I suspect this is cyclical.

Moltar: Feels like it’s slid under the radar but Lindor’s offense has taken a big tumble. Is he drunk on a moderate amount of power? Should he go back to trying to hit singles instead of home runs?

Dan Szymborski: He’s actually making *more* contact than before!  He’s like 70 points of BABIP below his career numbers

sam: what do the braves end up doing with jaime garcia, adams, vizcaino, jim johnson, phillips, etc? all gone? thx

Dan Szymborski: If they’re smart, it’s a selloff for what they can.

Daniel: is cereal and milk a soup?

Dan Szymborski: Strictly speaking, I’ll say yes.

The Average Sports Fan: Is there a contract worse than Jordan Zimmermann?

Dan Szymborski: Pujols.

Dan Szymborski: PZimmermann’s “only” owed $83 million

Tammy: I traded Kluber and Hoffman for Rosario and Cole in a dynasty. Did I get enough?

Dan Szymborski: I’d have tried to eke out a little more.

Aaron: Question about Jose Berrios:

Whiffs are largely coming from the four seam fastball, while the secondary pitches (curve and change) are producing below average whiffs. You selling — relative to current YTD production and in-year valuation — performance as unsustainable?

Dan Szymborski: To an extent.  he was never as bad as last year, but I don’t think he’s as good as this one.

Gabe: Do players conciously adjust their swing depending on where they are playing? For example try to hit fly balls for home runs in Yankee but try to hit liners in San Fran…

Dan Szymborski: Not to that much of an extent.

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: The ___ blank trade for Matt Adams at the trade deadline.  Headed back to Atlanta is ___.

Dan Szymborski: Depends on how certain experiments go.

Herb: Am i the only one skeptical of Bellinger? His Babip is pretty high and his average is not. Once he stops hitting 2 home runs every game he wont seem so special.

Dan Szymborski: He ought to hit a *lot* of HRs though.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS had him as the second-best 1B in future WAR in baseball *before* this season.

Mondo Dook: Dan Chat?  Is it Dan Chat Day already?  Actually, when is Dan Chat Day?

Dan Szymborski: It’s like Brigadoon.

Beep boop im a robot: what are we really expecting from Drew Smyly when he gets back? 2016 was an off year and hes just coming off injury, but looked damn good at the WBC.

Dan Szymborski: Who knows?

Dan Szymborski: Seriously, that’s a crap answer, but with injured pitchers it’s always a wait and see

Merv Throneberry: Aaron Hicks or Tommy Pham, or both ROS?

Dan Szymborski: Pham probably, but I’m a cynic.

Vegan Man!: Is Gallo worth holding in a 12 team OBP?

Dan Szymborski: With 3B qualification, *maybe* but probably not.

Aaron: You’re now GM of the Angels (not that you want to be, but humor me here). What are your first three moves? Could be player transactions, trades, hires, etc. Top 3 priorities.

Dan Szymborski: I’d start shopping what I have.  I dont’ think this team’s core can be a really good team.

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: If the Jeter Bush delegation ends up buying the Marlins, who becomes the new Worst Owner in Baseball?  The Wilpons?  Peter Angelos?  I feel like both of them have had some recent success on the backs of their tightly squeezed front offices and farm systems while doing nothing to sustain it.

Dan Szymborski: Could be Jeter Bush!  Wilpons are pretty bad.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: “What do you accomplish by hitting somebody? You accomplish nothing. You put a man on first base, and you give them an opportunity to win a baseball game. … I think it’s absolutely asinine to even take that approach.”
– Andy Green

Why aren’t more managers Andy Greens and fewer managers Joe Maddons, when it comes to a self-policing game through assault and battery?

Dan Szymborski: MANHOOD RITUAL

Matt: Glad to see you’ve started to realize the difference between Wednesday and Thursday.

Yanks: What is the outlook for Gleyber Torres? Can this injury derail his development?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be fine.  He wasn’t old for his levels anyway and that the surgery is the non-throwing arm makes me optimistic that he won’t be worse defensively

Mike: Who is more likely to be MVP: Bellinger or Judge? Next year?

Dan Szymborski: Judge this year.  After that, i think they’re in the same zone.

Robbie: Because Dave’s chat had so many hot takes on CarGo, what do you think of him? Better or worse than average? Most overhyped?

Dan Szymborski: An averagish player most likely that wil lnever be the player he was again that he was in his 2010-2013 peak.

Dan Szymborski: The Rockies are extremely frustrating.  They’ve done such a good job with their minor league system, but you look at that roster and you see so many places they just squandered possible value.

Dan Szymborski: Cuddyer, Morneau, de la Rosa, CarGo, the list goes on and on of players that at one point had value and they team couldn’t give less of a shit about getting more talent.

Mitch: Currently the Astros and Dodgers have the highest projected wins. If these two teams met in the world series, who would you favor?

Dan Szymborski: Dodgers very slightly

Beep boop im a robot: As a Yankee hater, what should infuriate me more; Gary Sanchez’s immediate success or Aaron Judge’s immediate success

Dan Szymborski: Judge maybe?

GK: With the clear importance of having an effective Changeup, do you think this is an area that organizations should place a higher influence on?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not a coaching expert, but I’m a believe in Johnny Sain’s belief in the value of changing speeds.

Dan Szymborski: There are only so many general concepts that get hitters out.  So the more your pitcher can do, the more tools he has.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Tell your boy David Schoenfield that the Bellinger to the Twins was part of the Brian Dozier discussions.

http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/80565/real-or-not-nolan-a…

Dan Szymborski: I’m sure that was shut down immediately.

rustydude: Huge # of prospect hoarders in my fantasy league. In my situation would you consider trolling these guys by starting the bidding on the “next best” set of prospects in the hopes they cut good players from their rosters upon winning these next-besters?

Dan Szymborski: Not the worst idea.  Zag when others zig.

Beep boop im a robot: How big a win is a 100 WRC mike zunino for the Mariners?

Dan Szymborski: Pretty big just to get him toe the line between good and horrific within a single season instead of jumping all over!

C.J.: What pitching prospect currently in the minor leagues do you think will have the biggest impact on a big league club in the second half?

Dan Szymborski: Brent Honeywell maybe?

Vegan Man!: Thoughts on Schebler? Looks like he has room for improvement in the BABIP department.  Power for real?

Dan Szymborski: The power improvement looks real.  Should be a good averagish player for a few years.

chuck: porzinigis to the mets to play with Tebow in the minors? gotta sell dem jerzeys

Mecha-Syzmborski: When Segura comes back, how good is the Mariners lineup? Top 3 AL?

Dan Szymborski: I’d put them 5th or 6th I think.

Aaron: How has the Amazon/Whole Foods acquisition affected your life?

Dan Szymborski: Not yet!  Though I’m annoyed that my local Whole Foods apepars to be prepackaging their sausages now and don’t have the merguez anymore.

C.J.: Are you buying a resurgence from Quintana and/or Cueto this year and beyond?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

HR derby: Girardi said the homerun derby wont bother Judge because he will still be hitting to all fields. Do you buy that logic?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s just one of those make-conversation things

Dudas Luca: Will the Mets trade Duda, and what are two or three teams where you think he fits?

Dan Szymborski: No

Stan: Luis Robert was the rage in fantasy after signing with the White Sox.  What is a realistic ETA, 2019 or 2020?

Dan Szymborski: Gotta see him in the minors before you can be realistic.  A palyer like him has a wide range of outcomes.

Ozuna: Do you think Ozuna, offensively, has taken a step forward this season?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Steve: Dan! How the heck are ya? Do you like Rizzo over Encarnacion by a wide margin ROS?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

trade: what are the yankees’ and mets’ biggest needs going into the trade deadline rumor stretch?

Dan Szymborski: I’d like the Yankees to have another starter.  And the Mets to have a new manager/front office.

Nick Markakis: Will I make it to 3000 hits? I’m closing in on 2000 fast

Dan Szymborski: Heh

RotoLando: Which pitcher and batter do you think deserve he Klobb Award this year?  (If such an award existed, and it should)

RotoLando: In fact, an end-of-year article comparing players to GoldenEye weapons is a good idea.

Dan Szymborski: I guess the Klobb would be the hitter with the lowest ISO and the pitcher the slowest fastball?

Dan Szymborski: I’m assuming, without looking, that’s Alcides Escobar and Jered Weaver.

jon: If a Hitter has a 56 game hitting streak on the line, and is 0-2 in the 9th inning, and is up at bat with the opposing pitcher throwing a no-hitter.  If he could get a hit by bunting, should he do it?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: A no-hit isn’t a feat if the other team isn’t going to do whatever they can to end it.

trade value: if you’re nyy, what do you accept for judge?

Dan Szymborski: All the bacon.

Fat Albert: Not a question – just an observation. Chad Pinder ranks 1st among middle infielders in ISO, Avg. FB/LD exit velocity, Barrels/PA, and 3rd in % of 95MPH+ batted balls.

GERB: Ramirez’s last 7 days split is insane. 357 wRC+, 14 XBHs, 1.4 WAR… Idea for a post, the best one week stretches ever. He’s gotta be up there right?

JD: What’s the right plan for the Angels?

Dan Szymborski: A plan.

Nickles: What do you Machado’s end of season line is? You think yesterday is a sign of things to come?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be fine.

Churray Mass: Y’know, for a digital dandy, you’d think you could get a working digital clock or something…

Paul: Eno did a really interesting article last year on evaluating managers (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-should-we-evaluate-a-manager/). Any chance this will be updated anytime soon, possibly ASB, with 2017 numbers? For all the metrics we have on players, metrics on manager effectiveness seems to be limited. I thought Eno’s was an excellent early path to take but haven’t seen it expanded upon.

Dan Szymborski: You should ask Eno what he’s doing on it!

Needing to Believe: Presuppose a fan with no particular fragilities — is that fan more like to be killed by a A. Judge rocket standing 400 feet from home plate or a R. Refsnyder foul from 125 feet away?

Dan Szymborski: Refsnyder.  The distance is a big issue because of reaction time.

Jacob h cornhole: World Series: Indians/Rockies – Judge gets disbarred by an array of Kluber sliders. Kluber starts three times in 6 games and the regression monster finally bites the Yankees in the butt. – David Robertson blows multiple saves in Coors as the curve doesn’t bite like in the thin air. Charlie Blackmon finally becomes a star on a national stage hitting for the cycle in the game 6 elimination game at home.

brad: Is Faria the real deal? He’s been incredible.

Dan Szymborski: Well, in a chance he has to be good, yes, but not 1.37 ERA good!

Dan Szymborski: He changes speeds really well.

Dan Szymborski: And he’s throwing harder now than I remember from last year

Jacob h cornhole: World Series Champ: Colorado Rockies – Indians don’t learn from last year and at this point Kluber is exhausted and the slider isn’t biting. Jon Gray takes a no hitter into the 7th inning in game 2 in Cleveland. Ace of the staff Marco Estrada gets roughed up in all his starts but the Purple Bombers let him off the hook every time through a barrage of runs led by World Series MVP and 2016 batting title champ DJ Lemahieu who runs a .500 batting average in the series. I move from Cleveland to Denver immediately following the loss as I can no longer stomach Cleveland sports and the Rockies (both the baseball team and the mountain range) are cool.

Dan Szymborski: Fan faiction!

Carson Cistulli: I am now an avid gardener- How angry does this make you, Dan Szymborski? Insofar that one can be angered by another authors hobbies

Dan Szymborski: It makes me relieved that someday, no matter how resilient Carson’s garden is, that in half a billion years, the level of CO2 will fall far enough to kill it off.

mookie best: in a space-jam scenario where team earth has to assemble a team to win one game against the monstars, who are the first three players taken? my heart wants to say trout is in there but i think the first three are pitchers. am i wrong?

Dan Szymborski: We already did the Space Jam!

Sean: Do you think that projections react too slowly to changes? For instance, AZ and Colorado are both projected to be about .500 teams going forward. Do you buy that for both/either team?

Dan Szymborski: I do.

Steve Herbman: Suppose the Mets decide to trade Jay Bruce before the trade deadline.  What sort of players would you expect them to trade for?

Dan Szymborski: They won’t though, and they value him more than most teams would.

Frustrated owner: Are any of your cats outdoor cats or do they all stay inside?

Dan Szymborski: Indoor cats.

Carson Cistulli: I am still here ,Dan Szymborski, feeling more ennui than usual. Perhaps, insofar that one can feel ennui

Greg: What type of statistical model(s) does ZiPS use? Anything Bayesian?

Dan Szymborski: Bayesian concepts but not a neural network.

Bryan: What program do you use for your sabermetrics/stats work?

Dan Szymborski: Depends what I’m doing.  Statistica and heavily-addoned Excel have been my tools for 20 years.

Mouth: What do you know about / expect out of Luis Castillo, who’s debuting against the Nationals Friday?

Dan Szymborski: High-end fastball, decent slider, doesn’t really change speeds all that well yet.

jg: What fraction of the random abbreviations/nicknames/acronyms for players that you get in questions have you heard before?  How many can you easily decipher from context? How jmany just leave you totally perplexed?  People make up at least half of these things on the spot, don’t they?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not usually that confused.

Porcho Villa: Are happy Thames here again?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Chuncey WIggins: What would you say besides eye/hand coordination is the most important skill set for a baseball player?

Dan Szymborski: Strength is always useful.

Dan Szymborski: Especially the leg variety!

greg: any current cat activity of interest?

Dan Szymborski: Not really.  They’re all sleeping I think.

HappyFunBall: Nats just lost a game in MIA on a called 3rd strike so far outside it was almost in the Gulf Of Mexico. When do we get roboumps?

Dan Szymborski: 10-20 years.

Kevin: Who is the Astros MVP so far?

Dan Szymborski: Altuve, but there are three guys I could pick

Matt: Step one: Put hot dog in bun.
Step two: Put bun in milk.
Step three: Eat hot dog sandwich soup.

Dan Szymborski: EWW

YKnotDisco?!: Who else is pooping while reading this chat?

Nate: Paxton’s last 3 starts have been rough. It appears his velo has been dropping in those starts. Do you think he is still hurt or just having one of those stretches?

Dan Szymborski: I’m worried, he also hasn’t *looked* good generally since coming back.

Dan Szymborski: So you have to wonder about the forearm still, given the results.

Bill: Have the Cubs finally gotten their lineup to play to their potential?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve always said that the team’s still good enough to have some wacky 30-10 run or something.

Dan Szymborski: Poeple jumped off the bandwagon way too quickly.

Porcho Villa: I dealt Justin Verlander to get Eric “God” Thames. Fair deal in a vaccum?

Dan Szymborski: I think I’d rather have Thames right now.

Hello: Kershaw is a generational player, no doubt, but Scherzer and his 20 k games, no hitters, and numerous near no hitters…would I be safe saying he is almost in CK’s league?

Dan Szymborski: As close as someone can be to Kershaw’s league, Scherzer is there.

Dan Szymborski: If the season ended today, I’d vote for Scherzer as the Cy Young

Dan Szymborski: Also, if the season ended today, I really need to think of some article ideas for the missing season if I’m going to keep getting paid.

Dan Szymborski: And no, I don’t know which if any NL awards I’m voting on this year.

Matt: Rizzo as a 2B just came up in my league. I researched the reason why he even has that eligibility, and it comes down to an interpretation that the “guy closest to 1B is the first baseman” and thus the only guy allowed to wear a first baseman glove. Thoughts on how to handle? Way too often a third baseman is moved between 2B and 1B in shifts, but they don’t have to get eligibility due to equipment. It’s madness, Dan. Madness.

Dan Szymborski: I do tend to like stricter eligibility rules.

Dan Szymborski: Sicne they’re essentially a proxy for defense.

Me: Can Bellinger be K Bryant 2.0?

Dan Szymborski: Why not?

Chuncey Wiggins: Will Freddie Freeman be the first 3rd baseman to field a grounder doing the splits?

Dan Szymborski: Remains to be seen if they even do it!

Cam’ron: what’s the 2nd best NES baseball game (besides Baseball Stars, duh)

Dan Szymborski: RBI Baseball

Cam’ron: Do you see the Posey rule ever reversed?

Dan Szymborski: No

Cubbo: Could the cubs repeat without demoting rondon?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

CubFan: Why hasn’t Marwin Gonzalez become an everyday player? Seems like Fisher leapfrogged over him and now Marwin is back to a UT. Thought Marwin had put up numbers worthy of everyday pt.

Dan Szymborski: He’ll still get his at-bats.  I’m fairly certain the Astros like himk but don’t actually consider him a 1000 OPS guy

CubFan: Care to take a stab on what kind of production Trout has when he returns?

Dan Szymborski: All of it.

Matt: Is (are?) every pair of shorts worn by Carlos Gonzalez cargo shorts?

Dan Szymborski: Yes.

Hello: How long before Judge gets a key to the city?

Dan Szymborski: Keys to the city never really make much sense.

Dan Szymborski: I understand the ornamental aspect of course.

Jerj Clooners: Just saw a video of Freeman taking grounders at third and he looks like Troy Glaus over there. Old Troy Glaus.

Dan Szymborski: What’s going to happen, it’s going to make the Braves be a mediocre team not going anywhere in 2017?  They’re already that.

Murse Wigwam: Dan, how do I politely announce to my co-workers that I have to go poop.  If I say, “go to the bathroom” they might expect me back sooner than the gurgling in my bowels is  indicating to me.  Also, I don’t work on the docks.

Dan Szymborski: Why can’t you say go to the bathroom?

Dan Szymborski: I think if you’re not back in two minutes they can infer you’re pooping.

Dan Szymborski: Because everybody poops.  I saw a documentary about that once.

Rockie Dangerfield: How do the Rockies rookie starters get into the NL ROY conversation?

Dan Szymborski: It’ll be tricky now.

Matt: Why isn’t anyone talking about Aaron judge’s babip? He’s being crowned MVP in June and he’s riding like a .430 babip

Dan Szymborski: He can lose a lot of BABIP and be having a good season.

Baseball Man: Astros are certainly going to win the AL West, Correct?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Cam’ron: how long can Avisail Garcia keep this up before we can stop waiting for him to fall off?

Dan Szymborski: I dunno.  It’s crazy!

Steve Herbman: It appears to me that it will be a buyer’s market this July.  Do you agree?

Dan Szymborski: I do not.  I think there will be a lot of teams with plausible shots.

Hello: Enjoyed the O’s article on rebuilding. How about trading Britton for a good return to restock the farm, while still hoping for a run in Machado’s contract year?

Dan Szymborski: Britton has to come back *and* be healthy to get a haul.

TampaRay: Kurt Bevacqua is the most mediocre player ever.

Moltar: Merguez has a very high SAR – Sausage Above Replacement

Scuba Steve: Whisper something good about Luis Castillo so Reds fans have something to look forward to.

Dan Szymborski: <I see struck out batters>

Moltar: I fear for the day the Mets fire Alderson – not that he’s spectatcular, but when he’s gone, Jeffy Wilpon resumes making all decisions. I’m already nervous.

Dan Szymborski: Good point

LegallyEagle: Aside from the home run derby, is there any other “skills contest” that MLB should add to the All-Star weekend?

Dan Szymborski: Race!  Targeted contact hitting!

YKnotDisco?!: Last time you thought of Rich Amaral?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not since he was an Oriole.

Steve Herbman: Who should the Brewers acquire to get an advantage in the NL Central?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they should be trading any of the future.

Dan Szymborski: Though I think it’s likely to be a moot point – the Cubs still have time to turn it around

Momus: Blue Jays are now 0-8 in games that would put their record at .500.  My question is – why does the universe hate Jays fans?

Dan Szymborski: Those two dollar coins

Dan Szymborski: And milk bags

Fausto Carmona: Regarding Travis Sawchik’s recent post on the Orioles- do you think it would be wise of them to sell all of their assets while the stock is so low, especially considering most of the more valuable ones (Machado, Britton, Jones) don’t have favorable team control situations?

Dan Szymborski: It’s tricky.  The Orioles would have to wait until a good moment now if they wanted to trade.

pegasus: how funny is it that the braves are about to succumb to matt adams’ siren song?

Dan Szymborski: Seeing if Freeman can passably play 3B is useful information about a key member of their team, Adams or no Adams.

Matt: To what extent did you use an abacus in formulating ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski: Nearly entirely.

Booger: True Chicago pizza is thin crust cut into squares; not deep dish.

Gub Gub: Do you sometimes get a picture in your head of what a player looks like based on his name, and then are completely wrong?  That happened to me today with Ricky Nolasco.

Dan Szymborski: The whole Reggie Cleveland All-Stars!

Dan Szymborski: True story, I didn’t realize Lew Ford was an actual person when he was drafted.

Dan Szymborski: Back when he was drafted, the Red Sox had Darren Lewis and Damon Buford splitting a lot of the time in CF and people were calling that combination Lewford.

Dan Szymborski: So when the Red Sox actually drafted a Lew Ford, I didn’t realize it was an actual guy and people weren’t just talking about Lewis and Buford.

Murse Wigwam: Did you read the Sports Illustrated article on the middle aged writer trying to hit a HR out of a major league park?  Twas interesting

Dan Szymborski: ’twas fun.

Nick Markakis: I’m assuming that means you believe I’ll make it to 3000. Thanks for the support!

Dan Szymborski: OK guys, gotta head out.  I do have my jotcast password saved on this PC now, so hopefully I can get in next week if I’m using this one!

Dan Szymborski: Have a great one!  You can read my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter.